Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2010
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In the Hawaii gubernatorial election of 2010, held on November 2, 2010, Democrat Neil Abercrombie defeated Republican Duke Aiona. Incumbent Governor Linda Lingle, a Republican, was term-limited.
Following the September 18, 2010 primary elections, Abercrombie beat Honolulu mayor Muffi Hannemann to become the Democratic nominee. Duke Aiona had no substantial primary opposition and easily won the GOP nomination.
As Republican incumbent Linda Lingle was term limited, the race was an open contest. On the Democratic side, Neil Abercrombie and Muffi Hannemann wrote a fresh act to an old political quarrel that dates back to 1986, when Hannemann beat Abercrombie in a special election to finish a gubernatorial term. At its end, the Democratic primary battle fell low enough to see Hannemann, a Hawaiian native with a Japanese wife, criticizing Abercrombie, a New York native whose wife is Caucasian, for lacking ethnic ties to the island.[1]
November 2, 2010 general election results
As of November 16, 2010, all precincts are reported and counted, and the final statement of vote is available.[2]
| 2010 Hawaii gubernatorial general election | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote Percentage | |
| Democratic Party | 57.79% | ||
| Republican Party | Duke Aiona | 40.82% | |
| Independent | Daniel H. Cunningham | 0.33% | |
| Independent | Thomas W. "Tom" Pollard | 0.33% | |
| - | spoilt ballots | 0.73% | |
| Total Votes | 385,385 | ||
Inauguration and transition
Inaugural date
Hawaii has one of the earliest gubernatorial inaugurations in the Union. The argument for having the governor take office so early is to give him time to prepare legislation and a budget before the general assembly sits. Governor-elect Abercrombie and Lieutenant Governor-elect Brian E. Schatz were sworn in at noon, local time, on December 6, 2010.
Event planner Karey Oura Kapoi, who served a Abercrombie's campaign coordinator in Maui, was announced as the head of the Inaugural planning committee. As is tradition in Hawaii, the actual inauguration took place on the grounds of Iolani Palace.[3]
Transition team
Governor Neil Abercrombe's transition website was at NewDayHawaii.org. On November 4, 2010, Abercrombie named his campaign manager, Bill Kaneko, as head of the transition effort.[4]
The incoming administration released two monographs, both available through the transition website, outlining the administration's agenda. A New Day in Hawaii addressed economic and educational policy and long term planning. This was supplemented by Recovery and Reinvestment, outlining Hawaii's fiscal situation and the proposed implementation of a solution to economic problems.
Appointments in the Abercrombie Administration
Governor Abercrombie named a Chief of Staff and Deputy Chief of Staff for his administration. Campaign operations manager Amy Asselbaye joined the administration as Chief of Staff. Immediately under Asselbaye, as Deputy Chief of Staff to the Governor, is Andrew Aoki, deputy campaign manager during Abercrombie's election bid.[5]
Asselbaye was set to manage cabinet appointments and policy implementation while Aoki was charged with policy planning and strategy.
September 18, 2010 primary
| 2010 Race for Governor - Democrat Primary[6] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidates | Percentage | |||
| Neil Abercrombie (D) | 59.3% | |||
| Mufi Hannemann (D) | 37.7% | |||
| Arturo P. Reyes (D) | 0.6% | |||
| Van K. Tanabe (D) | 0.6% | |||
| Miles Shiratori (D) | 0.4% | |||
| Total votes | 239,991 | |||
| 2010 Race for Governor - Republican Primary[7] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidates | Percentage | |||
| Duke Aiona (R) | 93.00% | |||
| James S. Carroll (R) | 4.5% | |||
| Total votes | 45,687 | |||
| 2010 Race for Governor – Non -Partisan Primary[8] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidates | Percentage | |||
| Thomas Pollard (NP) | 20.3% | |||
| Paul Manner (NP) | 14.4% | |||
| Tony Clapes (NP) | 7.3% | |||
| (blank votes) | 57.9% | |||
| (all other) | 0.1% | |||
| Total votes | 45,687 | |||
Race ratings
See also: Gubernatorial elections 2010, Race tracking
| 2010 Race Rankings Hawaii | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race Tracker | Race Rating | |||
| The Cook Political Report[9] | Lean Democratic | |||
| Congressional Quarterly Politics[10] | Likely Democratic | |||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Lean Democrat | |||
| Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[12] | Toss-up | |||
| The Rothenberg Political Report[13] | Toss-up Tilting Democratic | |||
| Overall Call | Democratic | |||
Changes
3. Rothenberg moved races from "Lean Democrat" to "Toss-up Tilting Democrat" on October 28th.
2. Larry J. Sabato moved races from "Likely Democrat" to "Lean Democrat" on October 28th.
1. Rasmussen moved race from "Solid Democratic" to "Toss-up" following October 15th polling.
Primary election polling
National level firms gave Hawaii sparse attention, perhaps as the governor's race was so widely presumed to be the Democrats' race to lose. Rasmussen found any Democrat enjoying a substantial lead over any Republican in hypothetical pairings ahead of the September primary.
| 2010 Race for Hawaii Governor - Rasmussen Reports[14] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date Reported | Aiona (R) | Abercrombie (D) | Other | Don't Know | |
| June 24, 2010[15] | 32% | 58% | 3% | 6% | |
| Aiona (R) | Hannemann (D) | Other | Don't Know | ||
| June 24, 2010[16] | 30% | 52% | 9% | 9% | |
| Date Reported | Carroll (R) | Abercrombie (D) | Other | Don't Know | |
| June 24, 2010[17] | 30% | 59% | 4% | 6% | |
| Date Reported | Carroll (R) | Hannemann (D) | Other | Don't Know | |
| June 24, 2010[18] | 23% | 57% | 9% | 11% | |
| Date Reported | Aiona (R) | Abercrombie (D) | Other | Don't Know | |
| March 24, 2010[19] | 31% | 54% | 6% | 9% | |
| Aiona (R) | Hannemann (D) | Other | Don't Know | ||
| March 24, 2010[20] | 29% | 50% | 14% | 7% | |
| (Sample)[21] | n=500 | MoE=+/- 4.5% | p=0.05 | ||
Candidates
| The November Ballot – Who Made It? Hawaii[22] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominee | Affiliation | ||||
| Neil Abercrombie | Democrat | ||||
| James R. "Duke" Aiona, Jr. | Republican | ||||
| Daniel H. Cunningham | Free Energy | ||||
| Thomas W. "Tom" Pollard | Non-Partisan | ||||
| This lists candidates who won their state's primary or convention, or who were unopposed, and who were officially certified for the November ballot by their state's election authority. | |||||
The Hawaiian Secretary of State maintained a list of all candidates, available online.[23]
Democratic
- Former U.S. Congressman Neil Abercrombie, holds a Ph.D. in American Studies and has spent of his life in Hawaiian politics. Preferring technology over tradition, Abercrombie made his initial announcement of candidacy on Twitter, following with a formal press release the next day.[24] He has made much of his close tie to Barack Obama.
- Hawaiian native Muliufi F. Hanneman, the Mayor of Honolulu, returned to the elementary school he once attended to announce his candidacy in May of 2010.[25]
- Arturo P. Reyes
- Miles F. Shiratori, a lifeguard instructor
- Van K. Tanabe, who previously ran in 2006, was again a contender.
- Sesa P. Toelupa
Free Energy Party
- Daniel H. Cunningham
Republican
- Linda Lingle's Lt. Governor James R. "Duke" Aiona, Jr., an attorney by trade who served as a judge before his election alongside Governor Lingle in 2002. He announced his intention to seek the governor's office in 2007 and began fundraising early on.[26]
- Former state senator John S. Carroll
Withdrawn Republican candidates
- Lancelot H. Lincoln
- Businessman and consultant Christopher B. Steele
Independent
- Chris Britos
- Anthony L. Clapes
- Khistina Dejean
- Paul A. Manner ran for the 1st Hawaiian Congressional District in addition to seeking the governorship.
- Thomas W. Pollard is a physician and member of the USAF Reserves.
- Grayson L. Wideman
Campaign advertisements
Duke Aiona' 'Two Live' ad. |
Neil Abercrombie' 'The Democratic Ticket 2010' ad. |
Republican Governor's Association' 'Energy' ad. |
Gubernatorial electoral history
| 1998 Gubernatorial Results[27] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidates | Percentage | |||
| Lingle (R) | 48.2% | |||
| Caetano (D) | 49.5% | |||
| Peabody (L) | 1.1% | |||
| Total votes | 412,520 | |||
| 2002 Gubernatorial Results[28] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidates | Percentage | |||
| Lingle (R) | 51.1% | |||
| Hirona (D) | 46.6% | |||
| Hill (NL) | 0.7% | |||
| Ryan (L) | o.4% | |||
| Brewer (N) | o.3% | |||
| Cunningham (F) | o.1% | |||
| Total votes | 385,457 | |||
| 2006 Gubernatorial Results[29] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidates | Percentage | |||
| Lingle (R)' | 61.7% | |||
| Iwase (D) | 34.9% | |||
| Brewer (G) | 1.6% | |||
| Daniel (L) | 0.5% | |||
| Total votes | 348,751 | |||
Presidential electoral history
| 2000 Presidential Results | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidates | Percentage | |||
| George W. Bush (R) | 37.5% | |||
| Al Gore (D) | 55.8% | |||
| 2004 Presidential Results | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidates | Percentage | |||
| George W. Bush (R) | 45.3% | |||
| John Kerry (D) | 54.0% | |||
| 2008 Presidential Results[30] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidates | Percentage | |||
| John McCain (R) | 26.6% | |||
| Barack Obama (D) | 71.8% | |||
| 1992 Presidential Results | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidates | Percentage | |||
| George H.W. Bush (R) | 36.7% | |||
| Bill Clinton (D) | 48.1% | |||
| 1996 Presidential Results | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidates | Percentage | |||
| Bob Dole (R) | 31.6% | |||
| Bill Clinton (D) | 56.9% | |||
See also
Eternal links
- Office of Elections, State of Hawaii
- Hawaiian gubernatorial candidates at www.FollowTheMoney.com
- Hawaiian governor's race at www.OurCampaigns.com
- Election 2010 - Hawaii Governor at www.RasmussenReports.com
- 2010 Hawaii Governor's Race at www.RealClearPolitics.com
- Hawaii Governor's Race at www.CQPolitics.com
Candidate pages
- Neil Abercrombie for Governor
- Duke Aiona for Governor
- Mufi Hanneman for Governor
- Tom Pollard for Governor
- Vote Tanabe
Footnotes
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Hawaii's Aloha spirit is being tested in Democratic primary for governor," September 16, 2010
- ↑ Hawaii Office of Elections, "GENERAL ELECTION - State of Hawaii – Statewide," updated November 16, 2010 at 17:22:48, accessed November 29, 2010
- ↑ New Day Hawaii, "Abercrombie Announces Leader to Plan Inaugural Events," November 11, 2010
- ↑ New Day Hawaii, "Abercrombie Announces Transition Plan," November 4, 2010
- ↑ [ New Day Hawaii, "Abercrombie Fills Top Two Positions in Governor’s Office," November 5, 2010]
- ↑ [Hawaii Office of Elections Hawaii Office of Elections, “PRIMARY ELECTION 2010 - State of Hawaii – Statewide”, September 19, 2010]
- ↑ [Hawaii Office of Elections Hawaii Office of Elections, “PRIMARY ELECTION 2010 - State of Hawaii – Statewide”, September 19, 2010]
- ↑ [Hawaii Office of Elections Hawaii Office of Elections, “PRIMARY ELECTION 2010 - State of Hawaii – Statewide”, September 19, 2010]
- ↑ The Cook Political, “Governors: Race Ratings”
- ↑ CQ Politics, “2010 Race Ratings: Governors”
- ↑ Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “2010 Governor Ratings”
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports', “Election 2010: Scorecard Ratings”
- ↑ Rothenberg Political Report, “Governor Ratings”
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “State Profiles: Hawaii”, accessed August 30, 2010 (dead link)
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Hawaii Governor: Democrats Remain Far Ahead”, June 30, 2010
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Hawaii Governor: Democrats Remain Far Ahead”, June 30, 2010
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Hawaii Governor: Democrats Remain Far Ahead”, June 30, 2010
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Hawaii Governor: Democrats Remain Far Ahead”, June 30, 2010
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Hawaii Governor: Two Top Democrats Well Ahead of GOP’s Aiona”, March 26, 2010
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Hawaii Governor: Two Top Democrats Well Ahead of GOP’s Aiona”, March 26, 2010
- ↑ [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
- ↑ [Hawaii Office of Elections Hawaii Office of Elections, “PRIMARY ELECTION 2010 - State of Hawaii – Statewide”, September 19, 2010]
- ↑ Office of Elections, State of Hawaii, "Candidate List, July 1, 2010," accessed July 2, 2010 (dead link)
- ↑ Neil Abercrombie for Governor, "Neil announces, I'm running for governor," March 9, 2009
- ↑ Mufi Hanneman for Governor, "It is Official: Mufi Hannemann for Governor," May 27, 2010
- ↑ Aiona for Governor, "Gubernatorial fundraising in full swing," June 29, 2009
- ↑ Hawaii Secretary of State, “General/OHA - STATE OF HAWAII - Statewide”, certified November 4, 1998
- ↑ 'Hawaii Secretary of State, “General Election 2002 - General/OHA - STATE OF HAWAII - Statewide”, certified November 6, 2002
- ↑ , Hawaii Secretary of State, “General Election 2006 - State of Hawaii - Statewide”, certified November 20, 2006
- ↑ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections', accessed July 28, 2010
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