Election results 2022: Pivot Counties in U.S. House elections
In the 2022 U.S. House elections, Pivot Counties overlapped with 98 U.S. House districts. Republicans won 62 districts and Democrats won 36. Following the 2020 elections, Republicans represented 64 districts overlapping a Pivot County and Democrats represented 38.[1]
Reverse-Pivot Counties overlapped with 19 U.S. House districts. Democrats won 10 districts and Republicans won nine. Following the 2020 elections, Democrats represented 14 districts overlapping a Reverse-Pivot County and Republicans represented six.
In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won 181 Pivot Counties and Joe Biden (D) won 25 Pivot Counties. The counties that Trump won in 2020 are Retained Pivot Counties, while those that Biden won are Boomerang Pivot Counties.[2][3]
This article shows the results of 2022 U.S. House elections in districts overlapping a Pivot or Reverse-Pivot County, in order to understand whether voters in these counties backed the same or different political parties.
Congressional districts containing Pivot Counties
Overview
The table below shows a comparison between partisan control of Congressional districts containing Pivot Counties immediately following the 2018, 2020, and 2022 Congressional elections.
| Partisan control of Congressional districts containing Pivot Counties, 2018-2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 |
| Democratic | 44 | 38 | 36 |
| Republican | 54 | 64 | 62 |
| Totals | 98[4] | 102 | 98 |
The map below shows the results in congressional districts containing Pivot Counties in the 2022 U.S. House elections. Districts are colored depending on whether they contain only Boomerang counties, only Retained counties, or both types.
List of Congressional districts containing Pivot Counties
The table below lists all congressional districts that encompass all or part of at least one Pivot County.
Congressional districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties
Overview
The table below shows a comparison between partisan control of Congressional districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties immediately following the 2018, 2020, and 2022 Congressional elections.
| Partisan control of Congressional districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties, 2016-2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 |
| Democratic | 10 | 16 | 14 | 10 |
| Republican | 10 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| Totals | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 |
The map below shows the results in congressional districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties in the 2022 U.S. House elections.
List of Congressional districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties
The table below lists all congressional districts that encompass all or part of at least one Reverse-Pivot County.
| List of congressional districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties, 2022 | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning party, 2022 | Reverse-Pivot Counties |
| California District 38 | Orange | |
| California District 40 | Orange | |
| California District 45 | Orange | |
| California District 46 | Orange | |
| California District 47 | Orange | |
| California District 49 | Orange | |
| Georgia District 3 | Henry | |
| Georgia District 6 | ||
| Cobb | ||
| Gwinnett | ||
| Georgia District 7 | Gwinnett | |
| Georgia District 9 | Gwinnett | |
| Georgia District 10 | Henry | |
| Georgia District 11 | Cobb | |
| Georgia District 13 | ||
| Cobb | ||
| Henry | ||
| Georgia District 14 | Cobb | |
| Maryland District 3 | Anne Arundel | |
| Maryland District 5 | Anne Arundel | |
| Texas District 7 | Fort Bend | |
| Texas District 9 | Fort Bend | |
| Texas District 22 | Fort Bend | |
Historical results
Pivot Counties
In the 2020 elections, there were 102 Congressional districts encompassing at least one Pivot County. There were 76 districts that encompassed no Boomerang Pivot Counties, 11 that encompassed no Retained Pivot Counties, and 15 that encompassed both Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties.
Democrats made net gains in districts with no Boomerang Pivot Counties and those with both Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties in 2018, seeing 33% increases in both categories. Republicans saw no net gains in 2018. Following the 2020 elections, partisan control returned to near-2016 levels, with Republicans seeing gains in the above-mentioned districts and Democrats seeing no net gains.
In districts with no Boomerang Pivot Counties, Democrats gained six seats in 2018. Republicans gained six seats in 2020. In districts containing both Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties, Democrats gained two seats in 2018. In 2020, Republican gained two seats in such districts.
In districts with no Retained Pivot Counties, partisan control remained unchanged from 2016 to 2020 with Democrats holding seven seats to Republicans' two.
The table below shows partisan control of districts by their Pivot County make-up from 2016 to 2020. Totals do not add to 102, but rather 94. Eight districts were redistricted between 2016 and 2020 that were excluded from this analysis.[5]
| Pivot County make-up of Congressional districts by partisan control, 2016-2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Make-up | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | Total | |||
| Democratic | Republican | Democratic | Republican | Democratic | Republican | ||
| No Boomerang | 21 | 49 | 27 | 43 | 21 | 49 | 70 |
| Both | 6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
| No Retained | 7 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| Total | 34 | 60 | 44 | 54 | 38 | 64 | 95 |
The map below shows Congressional districts containing Pivot Counties colored by partisan control and Pivot County make-up. Districts shaded black either have unavailable results or underwent mid-cycle redistricting.
Reverse-Pivot Counties
There were 20 U.S. House districts that contained Reverse-Pivot counties. Following the 2020 elections, Republicans flipped two of these districts, both of which had been flipped by Democrats in the 2018 elections.
The map below shows the outcome of U.S. House elections in the congressional districts containing Pivot Counties from 2016 to 2020.
Hover over each district to view its Pivot Counties and party control from 2016 to 2020.
See also
- Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016
- Reverse-Pivot Counties: The counties that voted McCain-Romney-Clinton from 2008-2016
- Election results, 2020: Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election
- Election results, 2020: Reverse-Pivot Counties
Footnotes
- ↑ Because of redistricting, there were a different number of districts overlapping with Pivot Counties in 2020 and 2022.
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
- ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
- ↑ Four districts in North Carolina are excluded from 2018 analyses due to mid-cycle redistricting.
- ↑ Breakdown of excluded districts:
Pennsylvania: two Democrat-held seats (one with no Retained, one with no Boomerang), two Republican-held seats (one with no Retained, one with no Boomerang).
North Carolina: two Democrat-held seats (both with no Boomerang), two Republican-held seats (both with no Boomerang).
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