Vermont gubernatorial election, 2016

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge-smaller use.png

Presidential • U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Governor • Lt. Gov • Attorney General • Secretary of State • State executive offices • State Senate • State House • Local judges • State ballot measures • Candidate ballot access
Flag of Vermont.png
2014
StateExecLogo.png
Vermont Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date:
August 9, 2016
General Election Date:
November 8, 2016

November Election Winner:
Phil Scott (R)
Incumbent Prior to Election:
Peter Shumlin (D)

State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
GovernorLt. Governor
Secretary of StateAttorney General
Down Ballot
AuditorTreasurer

Vermont, which holds its gubernatorial elections every two years, held an election for governor on November 8, 2016. Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott (R) defeated Democratic challenger Sue Minter, ending the Democratic Party's trifecta control of the state government.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Democrat Governor Peter Shumlin retired from office in 2017, leaving the governor's seat open for all parties.
  • Five Democrats and two Republicans competed for their parties' nominations in the August 9 primary elections, which were both competitive. Sue Minter won the Democratic primary, and Phil Scott won the Republican primary.
  • The last two open elections for governor were decided by less than 3 percentage points; early polling also promised a competitive election in 2016.
  • Scott won the general election on November 8, 2016, breaking a five-year Democratic trifecta.
  • Overview

    The governor of Vermont is elected every two years and has no term limit. Three-term incumbent Peter Shumlin (D) declined to seek re-election in 2016, leaving the election an open race.

    Going into the election, Vermont was under Democratic trifecta control. The office of governor had alternated party control every other officeholder since 1963; however, prior to 1963, Republicans had held the seat for over a century. The last two open elections for governor were decided by less than 3 percentage points. When Republican candidate Phil Scott won the governorship in 2016, the Democratic trifecta came to a close.

    Scott was popular among voters in the mostly Democratic state.[1] Before the election, he served as lieutenant governor alongside Democrat Gov. Peter Shumlin, which made Vermont one of the few states in which the governor and lieutenant governor belonged to different parties. Scott competed with businessman Bruce Lisman for the party nomination.

    Five Democrats competed in the primary election: Google executive and former state legislator Matt Dunne, former Secretary of the Vermont Agency of Transportation Sue Minter, former state Senator Peter Galbraith, businesswoman Cris Ericson, and Brooke Paige. Minter defeated her opponents in the primary election to win the Democratic nomination.

    The general election between Minter, Scott, and Liberty Union Party candidate Bill Lee was expected to be competitive. Lt. Governor Scott won the general election on November 8, 2016, breaking the five-year Democratic trifecta.


    Candidates and results

    Candidates

    Sue Minter square.png

    Sue Minter (D)
    Former transportation secretary, former state rep.



    Bill Lee Vermont.jpg

    Bill Lee (Liberty Union)
    Former Boston Red Sox pitcher




    Results

    General election

    Phil Scott defeated Sue Minter and Bill Lee in the Vermont governor election.

    Vermont Governor, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.png Phil Scott 52.96% 166,817
         Democratic Sue Minter 44.21% 139,253
         Liberty Union Party Bill Lee 2.83% 8,912
    Total Votes 314,982
    Source: Vermont Secretary of State

    Primary elections

    Democratic primary election

    Sue Minter defeated Matt Dunne, Peter Galbraith, Cris Ericson, and H. Brooke Paige in the Democratic primary for governor.

    Democratic primary for governor, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.png Sue Minter 49.27% 36,046
    Matt Dunne 36.50% 26,706
    Peter Galbraith 9.04% 6,611
    Cris Ericson 0.73% 537
    H. Brooke Paige 0.49% 361
    Write-in votes 3.96% 2,899
    Total Votes (275 of 275 Precincts Reporting) 73,160
    Source: Vermont Secretary of State

    Republican primary election

    Phil Scott defeated Bruce Lisman in the Republican primary for governor.

    Republican primary for governor, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.png Phil Scott 59.77% 27,728
    Bruce Lisman 39.04% 18,113
    Write-in votes 1.19% 553
    Total Votes (275 of 275 Precincts Reporting) 46,394
    Source: Vermont Secretary of State


    About the primary

    A primary election is an election in which voters select the candidate they believe should represent a political party in a general election. Primaries usually take place several months before a general election. Vermont utilizes an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary. Vermont state law is unique in that it allows candidates to run in multiple primary elections at the same time, whether for multiple offices or for the same office under multiple parties. However, a candidate may only appear once on the general election ballot.[4][5][6]

    Vermont's primary elections took place on August 9, 2016.

    Party control

    Vermont Party Control: 1992-2024
    Ten years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
    Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

    Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
    Governor D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R R R R R R R
    Senate D R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
    House R D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

    Going into the election, Vermont was under Democratic trifecta control: Democrats had held the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature since Republican Governor Jim Douglas left office in 2011. The state's electoral votes had gone to the Democratic presidential candidate since 1992, though Vermont went to Republicans for the six presidential elections prior.[7] The state had been represented in the U.S. Senate by Democrat Patrick Leahy since 1975 and by Bernie Sanders since 2007; Sanders won election as an independent candidate but changed party affiliation in 2015 to seek the Democratic nomination for president.

    The office of governor in Vermont had changed party hands every other officeholder since 1963, with no governor serving more than four two-year terms. In fact, every open election since 1968 had shifted partisan control of the seat. Before Philip Henderson Hoff's election in 1962, Republicans had held the seat since 1856. While incumbent governors had tended to win re-election by comfortable margins, two open elections prior to 2016—in 2002 and 2010—were both decided by less than 3 percentage points.[8] With Republicans having won the governorship in 2016, the five-year Democratic trifecta came to an end.

    Additionally, Vermont often elects notable state politicians to the governorship. The previous two Republicans to win election as governor held statewide offices at the time of their election—Jim Douglas was state treasurer and Richard A. Snelling was the lieutenant governor. Lieutenant Governor Howard Dean (D) succeeded Snelling upon his death in 1991 and won election to a full term the following year; Peter Shumlin (D) was president of the state Senate at the time of his election in 2010.

    Debates

    Democratic primary debate: August 2, 2016

    Matt Dunne, Peter Galbraith, Cris Ericson, H. Brooke Paige, and Sue Minter participated in a live debate on Vermont Edition on August 2, 2016. Renewable energy was a major issue in the debate, with Galbraith criticizing Dunne and Minter for supporting renewable wind projects in the state, which Galbraith asserted were ruining Vermont's "pristine" ridgelines.[9] Galbraith also criticized Dunne for his recent release of a policy position stating that local communities should have approval over new wind projects, calling it an "eleventh-hour flip," which Dunne denied.[9] Paige also voiced opposition to wind projects, stating that they posed health risks to nearby residents. Ericson proposed decorating solar farms with holographic butterflies and building ice cream stands to serve as tourist attractions.

    Paige and Galbraith both expressed support for abolishing the state's healthcare exchange, Vermont Health Connect. The candidates also discussed how they would address cuts to state spending and broadband internet access. Minter accused Dunne of conducting a smear campaign against her after he attempted to connect her to individuals implicated in a recent controversy involving fraudulent housing investments.[10][11]

    Republican primary debate: August 1, 2016

    Lt. Governor Phil Scott and Bruce Lisman debated on August 1, 2016, during a Vermont Public Broadcasting System event. The two candidates discussed how they would grow Vermont's economy. Lisman pointed to budget management practices, stating that he would cap state budgets at a 2 percent growth rate and cut inefficient spending. Scott stated he would only cap budgets for agencies that experienced 0.5-1.0 percent growth the previous year. Both candidates agreed they would abolish the state's healthcare exchange, Vermont Health Connect.

    Scott also accused his opponent of using "typical [Washington] D.C." tactics in running television ads that raised questions about Scott's construction company receiving $2 million in state contracts during his tenure in state government. Scott denied any wrongdoing, while Lisman called his involvement in the company a conflict of interest.[12][13]

    Primary election debate: May 13, 2016

    Five primary election candidates debated on May 13, 2016: Republicans Phil Scott and Bruce Lisman and Democrats Matt Dunne, Sue Minter, and Peter Galbraith. The two Republicans weighed in on the party's 2016 presidential nominee, Donald Trump, with Scott opposed to the candidate and Lisman noncommittal. All three Democrats expressed support for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, though Minter and Dunne both said they would have preferred her opponent Bernie Sanders to win the nomination.

    All five candidates discussed the economy, healthcare, and gun control laws. Both Republican candidates wanted to repeal federal healthcare exchanges and were opposed to universal background checks for gun purchases. Lisman stated that the economy would improve with better management of state government and less variation in tax rates, while Scott pushed for population growth. All three Democrats supported universal background checks and the federal healthcare exchange; Dunne and Minter stated they would invest in education and small business to grow the economy, while Galbraith suggested fewer tax incentives for businesses.[14]

    Primary election debate: December 16, 2015

    On December 16, 2015, candidates for governor of Vermont debated at the Associated Industries of Vermont annual conference. Bruce Lisman (R) said he would take a multiyear approach to recast state government:[15]

    I'd manage the damn budget. Set spending at 2-3 percent per year to reset our finances and no new taxes. And find 2 percent efficiencies with a brilliant, motivated management team. Recharge our government by bringing real managers into it, those people we find not because we know them but because they're talented.[16]

    Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott (R) called for an environment conducive to the financial well-being of working families: "I will neither propose nor will I sign a budget that exceeds these very reasonable limits. Working families need a break." He added, "What we're really doing is creating an environment that is helpful to them and a state government that is by their side and not on their back."

    Both of the Republicans said the state health exchange has harmed the business climate in Vermont.

    Former Transportation Secretary Sue Minter (D), who served in the administration of Peter Shumlin, said, "Growing an economy, I know, is a lot more than what government can do, but government must be a strong partner." She continued, "Growing the economy relies on innovators, investors, the ability to recruit, retain and train an educated workforce."

    Dunne, a Google executive, said,

    Under my administration, every manufacturing business in the state of Vermont would have a project manager to work on their behalf to make sure that you are not having to navigate state government from one agency to another to be able to make the changes you know are necessary.[16]

    Race tracking

    Race rating: Toss-up

    Race Ratings: Vermont Governor
    Race Tracker Race Ratings
    The Cook Political Report Likely Democrat Toss-up
    Governing Toss-up Toss-up
    Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Democrat Toss-up
    Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Safe Democrat Toss-up
    Daily Kos Race Ratings Toss-up Toss-up
    Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

    Polls

    General election matchup
    Poll Phil Scott Sue MinterBill "Spaceman" LeeOtherNot sureRefusedMargin of errorSample size
    Vermont Public Radio
    September 29, 2016-October 14, 2016
    39%38%2%5%14%2%+/-3.9579
    Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.



    Endorsements

    Key endorsements, primary candidates
    Matt Dunne (D)Sue Minter (D)Phil Scott (R)
    State Senate Majority Leader Phil Baruth (D)Former Governor Madeleine Kunin (D)The Manchester Journal
    Vermont Labor Council AFL-CIOFormer Governor Phil Hoff (D)State House Assistant Minority Leader Brian Savage (R)
    Vermont State Employees' AssociationState Senate Assistant Majority Leader Claire Ayer (D)State Senate Minority Leader Kevin Mullin (R)
    Rights & DemocracyFormer Lt. Governor Doug RacineBurlington Free Press
    Teamsters Local 597Vermont Conservation Voters 
    Professional Firefighters of Vermont  
    Burlington Free Press  
    What is a key endorsement?


    Campaign finance

    General election

    The following chart details the campaign finance activity for Sue Minter (D) and Phil Scott (R), the two major party candidates, for the general election. The amounts shown include money raised and spent during the primary and general elections.

    Primary election

    The following charts detail the campaign finance activity for the major candidates during the primary election season.

    Other candidates

    Note: Cash-on-hand figures were not available. If a candidate is not listed below, he or she did not meet or exceed minimum reporting requirements.

    Satellite spending

    Main article: Political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns

    Groups unaffiliated with candidates or campaigns—such as political action committees, super PACs, nonprofit public welfare organizations, and labor unions—often spend money to influence the outcome of an election. This satellite spending can take the form of express advocacy, which encourages votes for or against a candidate, or issue advocacy, which supports broad political or social issues. Some groups are restricted on which kind of advocacy they can engage in based on their tax status.

    Disclosure regulations vary from state to state and vary based on type of organization, complicating the process of determining a comprehensive picture of all spending in a given election.

    For example, nonprofits are not always required to disclose their donors to the government; they submit financial information to the federal government through regular tax filings with the Internal Revenue Service, which are only publicly available through a Freedom of Information Act request. Other organizations are required to report election expenditures to a state elections division.

    Vermont gubernatorial election outside spending, 2016[17]
    ElectionAmount spentType of spending
    Reid Hoffman, founder of LinkedIn$222,000Ads supporting Matt Dunne (D)
    Vermonters for Strong Leadership$120,000Ads supporting Sue Minter (D)
    EMILY's List$72,000Ads supporting Sue Minter (D)
    American Future Fund Political Action Committee$27,000Ads against Phil Scott (R)
    Total known expenditures:$441,000 
    Note: All figures are estimates. Know of any other instances of satellite spending? Tell us!

    Campaign media

    Note: If a candidate is not listed below, Ballotpedia staff were unable to locate any campaign media for that candidate. Do you know of any? Tell us!

    Democrats
    Matt Dunne (D) Campaign website Facebook Twitter YouTube Linkedin
    Cris Ericson (D) Campaign website Facebook Twitter YouTube 
    Peter Galbraith (D) Campaign website Facebook Twitter YouTube 
    H. Brooke Paige (D) Campaign website 
    Sue Minter (D) Campaign website Facebook Twitter YouTube Linkedin

    Republicans
    Bruce Lisman (R) Campaign website Facebook Twitter YouTube Linkedin
    Phil Scott (R) Campaign website Facebook Twitter YouTube Linkedin

    Bill Lee (Liberty Union) Facebook 

    Recent news

    The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Vermont state Governor election. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

    Past elections

    2014

    See also: Vermont gubernatorial election, 2014
    Governor of Vermont, 2014
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPeter Shumlin Incumbent 46.4% 89,509
         Republican Scott Milne 45.1% 87,075
         Libertarian Dan Feliciano 4.4% 8,428
         Liberty Union Emily Peyton 1.6% 3,157
         Independent Pete Diamondstone 0.9% 1,673
         Independent Bernard Peters 0.7% 1,434
         Independent Cris Ericson 0.6% 1,089
         Nonpartisan Write-in votes 0.4% 722
    Total Votes 193,087
    Election results via Vermont Secretary of State


    About the office

    Key election dates

    Filing deadline (party candidates):
    May 26, 2016
    Filing deadline (independents):
    August 4, 2016
    Primary date:
    August 9, 2016
    General election date:
    November 8, 2016
    Recount request deadline:
    November 23, 2016
    Inauguration:
    January 5, 2017

    Governor

    Main article: Governor of Vermont

    The Vermont governor is an elected constitutional officer, the head of the executive branch, and the highest state office in Vermont. The governor is popularly elected every two years and has no term limit.[18] The 81st and current governor at the time of the 2016 election was Peter Shumlin, a Democrat first elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2014.[19]

    See also: Vermont State Legislature, Vermont House of Representatives, Vermont State Senate

    Incumbent

    Governor Peter Shumlin (D) was elected in 2010, succeeding four-term Republican incumbent Jim Douglas, who did not run for re-election that year. Shumlin won re-election in 2012, and although he placed first in the 2014 gubernatorial election, he did not receive 50 percent of the vote, requiring the Vermont State Legislature to choose the governor. State legislators determined Shumlin the winner in January 2015 following a vote of 110-69.[20]

    Shumlin has also served several terms in the Vermont State Senate and House of Representatives. He previously worked as both an educator and dairy farmer, and he also runs Putney Student Travel, a company founded by his parents in the 1950s, with his brother. He announced in June 2015 that he would not seek re-election to a fourth term.[21]

    State profile

    Demographic data for Vermont
     VermontU.S.
    Total population:626,088316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):9,2173,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:94.9%73.6%
    Black/African American:1.1%12.6%
    Asian:1.4%5.1%
    Native American:0.3%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
    Two or more:1.9%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:1.7%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:91.8%86.7%
    College graduation rate:36%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$55,176$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:13.2%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Vermont.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in Vermont

    Vermont voted for the Democratic candidate in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

    Pivot Counties (2016)

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, one is located in Vermont, accounting for 0.5 percent of the total pivot counties.[22]

    Pivot Counties (2020)

    In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Vermont had one Retained Pivot County, 0.55 percent of all Retained Pivot Counties.

    More Vermont coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Vermont government:

    Previous elections:

    Ballotpedia exclusives:

    External links

    Footnotes

    1. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named poll
    2. WPTZ, "Former State Rep. John Moran won't run for governor," March 17, 2016
    3. Burlington Free Press, "Shap Smith files to run for governor," August 13, 2015
    4. National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
    5. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
    6. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013, through January 3, 2014, researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
    7. National Archives and Records Administration, "Historical Election Results," accessed July 25, 2016
    8. Vermont Secretary of State, "Elections," accessed September 12, 2016
    9. 9.0 9.1 Rutland Herald, "Democrats debate on wind power," August 4, 2016
    10. vtdigger.org, "Matt Dunne sends open letter to Sue Minter regarding single source contract for Newport State Airport," July 29, 2016
    11. vtdigger.org, "Dems resort to scrappy tactics in Vermont PBS debate," August 3, 2016
    12. Rutland Herald, "Scott and Lisman cross swords in TV debate," August 3, 2016
    13. VPR, "In gubernatorial debate, Lisman critiques Scott for doing business with these state," August 4, 2016
    14. WCAX, "Vt. candidates for governor debate in Burlington," May 13, 2016
    15. WCAX.com, "Vt. gubernatorial candidates talk business," December 16, 2015
    16. 16.0 16.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
    17. Seven Days, "Silicon Valley Billionaire Makes Six-Figure Ad Buy for Dunne," August 4, 2016
    18. Office of the Vermont Governor, "Homepage," accessed April 10, 2013
    19. Governor of Vermont, "About the Governor," accessed February 4, 2013
    20. Vermont Public Radio, "LIVE BLOG: Lawmakers Elect Shumlin to Third Term," January 8, 2015
    21. Vermont Public Radio, "Shumlin Will Not Seek Re-Election In 2016," June 8, 2015
    22. The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.