Voter turnout in the 206 Pivot Counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump

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In the 2016 election, Ballotpedia identified 206 Pivot Counties—counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012.[1] These counties are sometimes referred to as swing counties by media and political observers.This article is an analysis of 2016 voter turnout, and the change in turnout from prior elections, in these localities compared to the national average.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Seventy-five percent of the 206 Pivot Counties did not keep up with the national increase in voter turnout from 2012 to 2016. Of the 206 counties, 109 saw a decrease in voter turnout over that time period.
  • Although as a whole, the Pivot Counties saw an increase in voter turnout of 1.32 percent from 2012 to 2016, that was buoyed by a small number of counties. The average and median change in turnout in the Pivot Counties was -0.21 percent.
  • Pivot Counties with higher-than-average 2016 turnout are concentrated in states known for high participation in elections. Seventy-three of the 206 localities are situated in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—three historically very high-turnout states.

    • Across those counties in 2016, the voter turnout exceeded the national average by 0.61 points. In 120 counties, turnout exceeded the national average, while it was lower than the national average in 86 counties.

    However, in the majority of cases, the increase in voter turnout in these counties did not keep up with the national increase in voter turnout. Almost three-quarters of Pivot Counties (154) experienced either a decline in turnout or less of an increase than the nation as a whole did. Overall, there was no unifying pattern in these localities’ turnout. Some counties saw higher-than-average turnout in 2016, and others saw lower-than-average turnout. Localities did follow a pattern by region, with turnout increasing across the Northeast and decreasing across the Midwest.

    Calculating voter turnout

    Voter turnout can be measured in many different ways. For the purposes of this article, Ballotpedia has calculated turnout as total votes cast in the presidential race divided by citizen voting age population (CVAP). CVAP is the U.S. Census Bureau’s estimate of U.S. citizens aged 18 or older. Although other factors, such as incarceration, can affect a person’s eligibility to vote, CVAP is a close approximation of the voting eligible population.[2]

    Voter turnout in 2016

    Turnout in the 2016 presidential election was 61.63 percent nationwide. In the 206 Pivot Counties combined, turnout was 0.55 points higher, or 62.18 percent. In 120 such counties, turnout was higher than the national average; in 86 of them, turnout was lower than the national average. The median turnout in these 206 localities was 63.00 percent.

    Despite the fact that, collectively, they slightly outstripped national turnout, there is no clear turnout trend in areas that voted for Obama twice but became Republican in 2016. Instead, a county’s turnout was largely dependent on its location. In states with high turnout, such as Florida or Maine, almost all Pivot Counties had above-average turnout as well. By contrast, the Pivot Counties with below-average turnout simply clustered in states with low turnout overall, such as New Mexico or New York.

    These localities have exhibited the same turnout tendencies in previous presidential elections. In 2012, 130 future Pivot Counties had turnout greater than the national average, and 78 had turnout that was lower. This ratio was similar to 2016, and most counties ranked either above or below average in both years. In sum, the higher-than-average 2016 turnout in Pivot Counties can be explained by the fact that they come disproportionately from states known for high participation in elections. Seventy-three of the 206 localities are situated in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—three historically very high-turnout states.

    Voter Turnout in Pivot Counties (Overview)
    Figure Votes Cast Voting Age Population Voter Turnout
    Total 7,525,999 12,103,170 62.18%
    Average 36,534 58,753 61.35%
    Median 15,712 25,158 63.00%
    U.S. Total 137,100,229 222,464,710 61.63%

    Click "show" on the table below to view detailed statistics for individual counties.

    Change in turnout

    Turnout in areas that voted for Obama in 2008, Obama in 2012, and Trump in 2016 was down in 2016 compared to 2012, even as nationwide turnout increased. From 2012 to 2016, presidential turnout rose by 1.56 points nationwide, from 60.07 percent to 61.63 percent. However, in the median Pivot Counties, turnout dropped by 0.21 percentage points from 2012 levels. Ninety-seven of these localities saw an increase in turnout; the other 109 saw a decrease. Only 54 Pivot Counties saw their turnout increase by more than the national average did. Almost three times as many (154) failed to keep pace with the rest of the country.

    This analysis suggests that, overall, a dip in turnout in these 206 localities may have contributed to the Democratic Party losing its hold on them in 2016. However, the true story remains unique to each county. For instance, in heavily African-American Panola County, Mississippi—which is 50 percent African-American compared to the Pivot County average of 7 percent—dampened enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton’s campaign may have contributed to the county’s 7.17-point drop in turnout and her subsequent loss there. But in Suffolk County, New York, where turnout increased by 6.87 percentage points (the most of any Pivot Counties), Trump’s campaign may have won the county by energizing more voters to go to the polls. Yet again, a regional pattern is apparent. Turnout consistently increased—by more than it did nationally—in the Northeast’s Pivot Counties in 2016, but it was far more likely to decrease than increase in areas meeting these criteria located in the Midwest.

    Change in Voter Turnout from 2012 to 2016 (Overview)
    Figure Voter Turnout (2016) Voter Turnout (2012) Change in Voter Turnout
    Total 62.18% 60.86% 1.32%
    Average 61.34% 61.55% -0.21%
    Median 63.00% 63.37% -0.21%
    U.S. Total 61.63% 60.07% 1.56%

    Click "show" on the table below to view detailed statistics for individual counties.

    County highlights

    Biggest Decrease in Turnout: Lee County, IA (-9.98%)

    In Lee County, Iowa, the voter turnout fell from 68.74 percent in 2012 to 58.76 percent in 2016. The pendulum swung from a Democratic victory with 57 percent in 2012 to a Republican victory with 55 percent in 2016. Compared to other Pivot Counties, Lee County is smaller (population of 35,000 vs 78,000 average), more white (94.1 percent to 85.5 percent), and less college-educated (15.5 percent to 19.6 percent).

    Biggest Increase in Turnout: Suffolk County, NY (+6.87%)

    In Suffolk County, New York, the voter turnout increased from 57.59 percent in 2012 to 64.46 percent in 2016, an increase of almost 90,000 votes. Democrats carried the county with 51 percent in 2012, and Republicans won with the same figure in 2016. Compared to other Pivot Counties, Suffolk County is larger (population of 1.5 million vs 78,000 average), more Asian (4.2 percent to 1.1 percent), and higher-income ($88,700 to $47,200).

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    2. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Voting Age Population by Citizenship and Race (CVAP) 2011-2015," accessed March 20, 2017
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