Univision Miami Democratic debate (March 9, 2016)
This article focuses exclusively on the eighth Democratic debate hosted by Univision and The Washington Post on March 9, 2016. Click here to access Ballotpedia's full 2015-2016 presidential debate coverage. A schedule for Democratic primary debates can be found below.
The eighth Democratic debate came on the heels of Bernie Sanders' surprise win over Hillary Clinton in the Michigan Democratic primary election on March 8, 2016. Though polling in early March and late February showed Clinton with a lead over Sanders ranging from 11 to more than 30 points, Sanders won the contest 50 to 48 percent. That same evening, however, Clinton won the Mississippi Democratic primary over Sanders 83 to 17 percent. The March 9 debate in Miami also marked the candidates' last debate before the March 15 primaries and caucuses, which featured the pivotal states of Florida, Illinois, and Ohio. At the time of the debate on March 9, Clinton had approximately 760 pledged delegates out of total delegates 2,383 needed to secure the nomination. Sanders had approximately 546.
Ballotpedia's coverage of the eighth Democratic debate includes an overview of the event's basic information, the results of Ballotpedia's Insiders Poll, statistics and post-debate commentary. More information can be found in the "Basic Information" tab below.[1]
Basic Information
Date: March 9, 2016
Time: 9:00 EST
Location: Miami, Florida
Venue: Miami Dade College
Sponsors: Univision and The Washington Post
Moderators: Maria Elena Salinas, Jorge Ramos and Karen Tumulty[2]
Participants
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Ballotpedia's Insiders Poll
Under fire, Clinton holds her own in Miami
March 10, 2016
By James A. Barnes
With less than a week to go before the five-state primary and delegate bonanza on March 15, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders squared off in Miami for a contentious debate hosted by Univision and The Washington Post. In a survey of more than 80 Democratic and Republican political insiders, a solid plurality of the Democrats, 45 percent, said Clinton was the “biggest winner” of the debate.
Among the 52 Democratic Insiders—party strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives—who responded to the survey, several said Clinton held up well under a barrage of questions that one way or another cut to her character. Some also felt that while the debate moderators pressed both candidates, she got the tougher scrutiny.
“Benghazi, indictments, trust—she certainly didn’t catch many breaks tonight,” observed one Democratic Insider. “And yet, she held her own which is what candidates with big delegate leads need to do.” Another noted, “Hispanic voters really won: the moderators do a great job holding the candidates’ feet to the fire.”
While Clinton may have been judged the biggest winner, her dominance in these encounters appears to be waning. In a similar survey after the Democratic presidential debate in Milwaukee hosted by PBS a month ago, a solid majority of Democratic Insiders awarded Clinton the “biggest winner” honors.
“Bernie didn’t capitalize on the Michi-mentum,” maintained one Democratic Insider. “Hillary showed mastery of subject matter and poise under pressure.” Another added, “Despite his rote delivery—and appeal—Hillary is on her way to the nomination, and it shows.” A third Democratic Insider who also voted Clinton the debate’s winner said she was “measured and in control.”
At the same time, Democratic Insiders seem to feel Sanders has found his footing in these encounters. “His best debate yet,” declared one Democratic influential. “He’s scoring more now, but he’s got a big mountain to climb,” added another. “Clinton picked weak assertions early on that did not ring true like suggesting Sanders enabled the Minutemen,” said one Democratic Insider who gave the debate nod to Sanders. “Hard to believe, even if somehow true. She got stronger by the end, but took to long to gain her stride.”
But more Democratic Insiders felt the Univision-Post debate was a draw. “Bernie is getting better at this, but Clinton came prepared, and she is in a commanding place in the primary, something that remains exactly the same as it was before the debate started,” noted one Democratic Insider. “She held her own, but she has to start delivering knock out blows and she is far from that,” averred another Democrat. But a third, who didn’t care for the debate’s tone countered that it was “ugly and unproductive though Bernie didn’t get the knock out he needed to win.”
And there may be some debate fatigue setting in among the party elites, a group that naturally gravitates more towards Clinton than the insurgent Sanders. “Do we really need these things to go on for two hours?” asked one Democratic Insider.
Republican Insiders saw the debate a differently from their Democratic counterparts, but few were watching with their own debate up tonight. Among the 24 who responded to this survey, a plurality, 46 percent, thought Sanders was the biggest winner. (Another 29 percent said the debate was a draw and 25 percent thought Clinton won.) “Sanders was more confident, aggressive and pointed then in previous debates,” explained one Republican. “Clinton missed a chance to end the race in Michigan. Now Sanders thinks he might win and he is acting like.” Another GOP Insider simply said, “Michigan momentum.”
And judging the debate a draw, one Republican, perhaps speaking for many, said, “At this point all minds are made up.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted February 25-26.
Debate Commentary
The columns below were authored by guest columnists and members of Ballotpedia's senior writing staff. The opinions and views belong to the authors.
Republican and Democratic contenders flip scripts
March 11, 2016
By Karlyn Bowman
Karlyn Bowman, a widely respected analyst of public opinion, is a senior fellow and research coordinator at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C.
A poll from Pat Caddell & Associates released this week found that 83 percent of Americans agree that there are different rules for the well-connected and people with money. That sentiment is not new, of course. A Gallup question twenty years ago put the number of people saying the government was run by a few big interests looking out for themselves at 74 percent.
But it is much more salient politically this year because many Americans are still feeling the after effects of the 2008 financial crash and the recession. Many have lost ground while people on Wall Street seem to be doing just fine. Donald Trump understands this and talks openly about how he, as a businessman, has used the system to his advantage.
It is one of a number of themes he has used in the debates to propel his candidacy forward and it has been effective. It was so again last night. Rubio was eloquent at times. It is now clear how misguided his attempt was to descend to Trump’s level of vulgarity in the last debate, and it seems to have permanently damaged him. He could have taken him on seriously, but not with schoolyard taunts.
Kasich always looks like the odd-man out on the stage, but his interventions are substantive. He’s a popular governor and should do well in Ohio. Today, the race seems to be a two-man contest now between Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, although I suppose we could be surprised in Florida and Ohio given some of the pre-primary polls’ erratic performance thus far.
I confess, I was dreading having to watch another GOP food fight Thursday evening. But the Republicans sounded a little more like grown-ups last night. Even Trump said, "I cannot believe how civil it’s been up here."
The Democratic debate the night before was more acrimonious and sour. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders will go on, and he has pulled Clinton to the left on many issues. His attacks were more acerbic than in the past. The Democratic Party has moved to the left over the course of the Obama presidency. Whether Clinton, whom most people expect to be the nominee, can move back to the center where the swing votes are in a general election, remains to be seen.
Statistics
This article analyzes the central themes of the eighth Democratic presidential debate held on March 9, 2016, in Miami, Florida. The transcript prepared by The Washington Post was used to measure candidate participation and audience engagement.[3] Footage from the debate was consulted where there were ambiguities in the text.
To compare the statistics of this debate to those of the previous Democratic debate, see the analysis of the CNN debate held on March 6, 2016.
Segments
Including opening and closing statements, this debate featured 20 unique discussion segments covering immigration reform, the economy and other domestic issues. These discussion segments were measured by any shift in the theme of a discussion prompted by one of the moderators: Maria Elena Salinas, Jorge Ramos and Karen Tumulty.
- Opening statements
- Michigan primary results
- Hillary Clinton's private email server
- Donald Trump and racism
- Immigration reform
- Deportation of children and individuals without criminal records
- Border security
- Immigration enforcement and the separation of families
- Clinton's trustworthiness
- Clinton's Wall Street speeches
- Clinton's response to the 2012 Benghazi attack
- Bernie Sanders and establishment politics
- Living conditions of Latinos
- Debt-free higher education
- Climate change and bipartisan environmental legislation
- Relationship between Wall Street and Washington
- U.S.-Cuba relations
- Puerto Rican debt crisis
- Supreme Court vacancy
- Closing statements
Approximately one-third of the discussion segments related to immigration reform and issues facing Latinos in the United States and abroad. Another third covered issues relating to the individual political careers and campaigns of Clinton, Sanders, and Trump.
Participants
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Overall participation
Participation in a discussion segment was defined as a substantive comment related to the discussion segment's topic. Jokes and attempts to gain permission from a moderator to speak were not considered participatory speech acts. In some instances, candidates who participated in a discussion segment diverted from the prompted topic.
Clinton and Sanders participated in almost every discussion segment.
Candidate participation by speaking order
This study also calculated the number of times a candidate spoke first, second, third, or fourth during a discussion segment, whether prompted by a moderator with a question or invitation to rebut or by interjection.
Clinton was called on to speak first three times as often as Sanders.
Audience engagement
Audience engagement was measured by noting applause, cheering, or laughter in The Washington Post's transcript. Footage from the debate was consulted when the text was ambiguous about to whom the audience was responding.
With 59 positive responses from the live audience, Sanders again registered more audience engagement than Clinton.
The discussion segments on debt-free higher education, Clinton's Wall Street speeches and the deportation of children and individuals without criminal records received the most audience engagement overall.
Candidate analysis
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Democratic Debate Schedule
Click the schedule to return back to the top of the page.
See also
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
Footnotes
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