United States House of Representatives election in Vermont, 2018

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General election
General election for U.S. House Vermont At-large District

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Peter Welch
Peter Welch (D)
 
69.2
 
188,547
Image of Anya Tynio
Anya Tynio (R)
 
26.0
 
70,705
Image of Cris Ericson
Cris Ericson (Independent)
 
3.3
 
9,110
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Laura Potter (Liberty Union Party)
 
1.4
 
3,924
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
165

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 272,451
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


2020 →
← 2016
Vermont's At-Large Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 31, 2018
Primary: August 14, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Peter Welch (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: Open between 5 a.m. to 10 a.m.; close at 7 p.m.
Voting in Vermont
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Vermont's At-Large Congressional District
U.S. Senate • At-large
Vermont elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

The 2018 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Vermont took place on November 6, 2018. Voters elected one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's At-Large Congressional District.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Peter Welch (D), who was first elected in 2006.

Vermont has a single At-Large Congressional District, which is made up of the entire state.





Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Vermont At-large District

Incumbent Peter Welch defeated Anya Tynio, Cris Ericson, and Laura Potter in the general election for U.S. House Vermont At-large District on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Peter Welch
Peter Welch (D)
 
69.2
 
188,547
Image of Anya Tynio
Anya Tynio (R)
 
26.0
 
70,705
Image of Cris Ericson
Cris Ericson (Independent)
 
3.3
 
9,110
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Laura Potter (Liberty Union Party)
 
1.4
 
3,924
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
165

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 272,451
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Vermont At-large District

Incumbent Peter Welch defeated Daniel Freilich and Ben Mitchell in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Vermont At-large District on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Peter Welch
Peter Welch
 
84.0
 
54,330
Image of Daniel Freilich
Daniel Freilich
 
11.9
 
7,711
Image of Ben Mitchell
Ben Mitchell
 
4.1
 
2,624

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 64,665
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Vermont At-large District

H. Brooke Paige defeated Anya Tynio in the Republican primary for U.S. House Vermont At-large District on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of H. Brooke Paige
H. Brooke Paige
 
63.3
 
14,272
Image of Anya Tynio
Anya Tynio
 
36.7
 
8,261

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 22,533
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+15, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 15 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Vermont's at-large district the 91st-most Democratic district nationally.[3]

FiveThirtyEight's elasticity score for states and congressional districts measures "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." Heading into the election, this district's elasticity score was 1.12. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moves toward a party, the district is expected to move 1.12 points toward that party.[4]

2016 Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties and Congressional districts intersecting with Pivot Counties

Vermont's single congressional district intersects with one or more Pivot Counties. These 206 Pivot Counties voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012.

The 206 Pivot Counties are located in 34 states. Iowa, with 31, had the most such counties. The partisan makeup of the 108 congressional districts intersecting with Pivot Counties is more Republican than the partisan breakdown of the U.S. House. Of the 108 congressional districts that have at least one Pivot County, 63 percent are held by a Republican incumbent, while 55.4 percent of U.S. House seats were won by a Republican in the 2016 elections.[5]

Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[6]
Democratic Party Democrats



Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to U.S. House elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 48 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

U.S. House wave elections
Year President Party Election type House seats change House majority[7]
1932 Hoover R Presidential -97 D
1922 Harding R First midterm -76 R
1938 Roosevelt D Second midterm -70 D
2010 Obama D First midterm -63 R (flipped)
1920 Wilson D Presidential -59 R
1946 Truman D First midterm -54 R (flipped)
1994 Clinton D First midterm -54 R (flipped)
1930 Hoover R First midterm -53 D (flipped)
1942 Roosevelt D Third midterm -50 D
1966 Johnson D First midterm[8] -48 D
1974 Ford R Second midterm[9] -48 D

District history

2016

See also: United States House of Representatives election in Vermont, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Peter Welch defeated Erica Clawson (Liberty Union) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced a primary challenger.[10]

U.S. House, Vermont At-large District General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPeter Welch Incumbent 89.5% 264,414
     Liberty Union Erica Clawson 10% 29,410
     N/A Write-in 0.5% 1,510
Total Votes 295,334
Source: Vermont Secretary of State

2014

See also: Vermont's At-Large Congressional District elections, 2014

Incumbent Peter Welch won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. He defeated Mark Donka (R), Cris Ericson (I), Liberty Union Party candidate Matthew Andrews, Energy Independence Party candidate Jerry Trudell and Randall Meyer (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Vermont's At-Large District General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPeter Welch Incumbent 64.4% 123,349
     Republican Mark Donka 31% 59,432
     Independent Cris Ericson 1.4% 2,750
     Liberty Union Party Matthew Andrews 1.1% 2,071
     Independent Randall Meyer 0.9% 1,685
     Energy Independence Party Jerry Trudell 1.1% 2,024
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 193
Total Votes 191,504
Source: Vermont Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 14 Vermont counties—7.14 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Essex County, Vermont 16.65% 13.40% 14.48%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Vermont with 56.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 30.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Vermont cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 60.0 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Vermont supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 70.0 to 26.7 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Vermont. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[11][12]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won all 104 state House districts in Vermont with an average margin of victory of 35.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 92 out of 104 state House districts in Vermont with an average margin of victory of 29.4 points. Clinton won 27 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 12 out of 104 state House districts in Vermont with an average margin of victory of 6.1 points.


State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Vermont heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • As of September 2018, Democrats held four of 10 state executive positions, Republicans held one, and the remaining five positions were officially nonpartisan.
  • The governor of Vermont was Republican Phil Scott. The state held elections for governor on November 6, 2018.

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Vermont General Assembly. They had a 80-53 majority in the state House and a 21-7 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Vermont was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Phil Scott (R) served as governor, while Democrats controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Vermont elections, 2018

Vermont held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Vermont
 VermontU.S.
Total population:626,088316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):9,2173,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:94.9%73.6%
Black/African American:1.1%12.6%
Asian:1.4%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:1.9%3%
Hispanic/Latino:1.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:91.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:36%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$55,176$53,889
Persons below poverty level:13.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Vermont.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Vermont's largest cities by population were Burlington (pop. est. 42,239), Essex (pop. est. 21,519), and South Burlington (pop. est. 19,141).[13]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Vermont from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Vermont Secretary of State.[14]

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Vermont every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Vermont 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 56.7% Republican Party Donald Trump 30.3% 26.4%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 66.8% Republican Party Mitt Romney 31.1% 35.7%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 67.5% Republican Party John McCain 30.4% 37.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 58.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 38.8% 20.1%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 50.6% Republican Party George W. Bush 40.7% 9.9%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Vermont from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Vermont 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Patrick Leahy 61.3% Republican Party Scott Milne 33.0% 28.3%
2012 Grey.png Bernie Sanders 71.0% Republican Party John Macgovern 24.9% 46.1%
2010 Republican Party Patrick Leahy 64.3% Democratic Party Len Britton 30.9% 33.4%
2006 Democratic Party Bernie Sanders 65.4% Republican Party Rich Tarrant 32.4% 33.0%
2004 Democratic Party Patrick Leahy 70.6% Republican Party Jack McMullen 24.5% 46.1%
2000 Republican Party James M. Jeffords 65.6% Democratic Party Ed Flanagan 25.4% 40.2%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every two years in Vermont.

Election results (Governor), Vermont 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Phil Scott 52.9% Democratic Party Sue Minter 44.2% 8.7%
2014 Democratic Party Peter Shumlin 46.5% Republican Party Scott Milne 45.2% 1.3%
2012 Democratic Party Peter Shumlin 58.0% Republican Party Randy Brock 37.7% 20.3%
2010 Democratic Party Peter Shumlin 49.5% Republican Party Brian Dubie 47.7% 1.8%
2008 Republican Party Jim Douglas 53.4% Grey.png Anthony Pollina 21.9% 31.5%
2006 Republican Party Jim Douglas 56.4% Democratic Party Scudder Parker 41.2% 15.2%
2004 Republican Party Jim Douglas 58.7% Democratic Party Peter Clavelle 37.9% 20.8%
2002 Republican Party Jim Douglas 44.9% Democratic Party Doug Racine 42.4% 2.5%
2000 Democratic Party Howard Dean 50.5% Republican Party Ruth Dwyer 37.9% 12.6%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

See the list below for the members elected to represent Vermont in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Vermont has one at-large representative in the House. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Trifectas, 1992-2017

“A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.”

Vermont Party Control: 1992-2024
Ten years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R R R R R R R
Senate D R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House R D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Polls may have opened earlier than 10:00 a.m.; 10:00 a.m. was the latest poll opening time.
  2. ↑ Polls may have opened earlier than 10:00 a.m.; 10:00 a.m. was the latest poll opening time.
  3. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  4. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  5. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
  6. ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
  7. ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
  8. ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
  9. ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
  10. ↑ Vermont Secretary of State, "Candidates," accessed May 27, 2016
  11. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  12. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  13. ↑ Vermont Demographics, "Vermont Cities by Population," accessed September 6, 2018
  14. ↑ Vermont Secretary of State, "Election Results Archive," accessed September 6, 2018
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Vermont's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Bernie Sanders (I)
Peter Welch (D)
Representatives
Democratic Party (2)
Independent (1)

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