U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2016
Elections were held for 34 of the 100 U.S. Senate seats in 2016. However, in most of those races, the party of the winning candidate was all but decided before anyone even filed to run. Ballotpedia predicted that only nine of those 34 races would be competitive in the general election. Yet, despite the usual lack of competitiveness in congressional elections, 2016 was predicted to be a very volatile year for the U.S. Senate. However, the Republican majority proved to be a lot more stable than anticipated, resulting in a loss of only two red seats. The following were the primary factors contributing to that prediction.
- Republicans held 24 of the 34 seats up for election. The fact that the Republican Party had so many more seats to defend made it much more vulnerable to losing seats than the Democratic Party, regardless of political climate.
- Freshmen Republicans held 6 of the 9 most competitive seats in the country. Those Republicans were first elected in the tea party wave of 2010 and faced their first re-election bid in 2016.
- This year's Senate election coincided with a presidential election. The higher voter interest and turnout made re-election more difficult for those freshmen members of the GOP, who were elected in the midterm election of 2010, a very favorable political landscape for Republicans.
Because of these factors, control of the Senate was up for grabs in 2016. Heading into the election, Republicans held a tenuous 54-seat majority in the chamber, and Democrats needed to gain 5 seats in 2016 in order to retake control of the Senate. In the end Democrats fell short of that goal, picking up only two Senate seats. As a result of the elections, the Republican Party gained control of the entire federal government. Both parties poured a ton of money into the competitive Senate races in order to try and win the chamber. This page served to highlight those competitive races, which received so much attention in 2016.
The unexpected death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia on February 13, 2016, placed even greater importance on the 2016 Senate elections. Confirmation of a new Supreme Court justice requires 60 votes in the Senate, giving the Republican-controlled Senate the ability to deny any nominee chosen by President Barack Obama. Several Republican senators, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, declared that the next president should have the responsibility of appointing the new justice. McConnell said in a statement, "The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new President."[1]
Appointment and confirmation of the replacement justice will be left to the newly elected president and Senate in 2017. This put increased pressure on both parties to win the Senate in 2016, as the chamber has the ability to confirm or deny the next president's nominees. This also raised the issue of Republican obstructionism in some battleground states. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said of the issue, "I believe that many of the mainstream Republicans, when the president nominates a mainstream nominee, will not want to follow Mitch McConnell over the cliff. The American people don't like this obstruction. When you go right off the bat and say, 'I don't care who he nominates, I am going to oppose him,' that's not going to fly."[1][2]
The following map displays which Senate seats were up for election in 2016 and our competitiveness rating for each state.
Criteria
The following criteria were examined to determine whether a race was likely competitive or not. No specific number of criteria had to be met to label a state competitive, but all of the following were considered in each race.
1. Margin of victory (MOV) in the past two Senate elections (2010 and either 2012 or 2014):
- The MOV of the incumbent in his or her previous election combined with the MOV from the intermediate Senate election in either 2012 or 2014 was the baseline metric used for determining competitiveness.
- Example: Nevada had low margins of victory in the past two senate elections. Harry Reid (D) won re-election to his seat by 5.7 percent in 2010, while Dean Heller (R) won re-election to his seat by 1.2 percent in 2012.
- The MOV of the incumbent in his or her previous election combined with the MOV from the intermediate Senate election in either 2012 or 2014 was the baseline metric used for determining competitiveness.
2. Margin of victory in the past two presidential elections (2012 and 2008):
- Presidential elections play a huge role in all races on the ballot. Voter turnout is always higher in presidential elections. A strong presidential candidate can also provide a boon to all candidates from his or her party on the ballot. Since 2016 was a presidential election year, these figures are often more telling than Senate results from either 2010 or 2014, because midterms are very different from presidential elections.
- Presidential elections play a huge role in all races on the ballot. Voter turnout is always higher in presidential elections. A strong presidential candidate can also provide a boon to all candidates from his or her party on the ballot. Since 2016 was a presidential election year, these figures are often more telling than Senate results from either 2010 or 2014, because midterms are very different from presidential elections.
- Example: President Barack Obama (D) had a very low margin of victory in Florida in both 2012 and 2008. Another close presidential race in 2016 was expected to result in a close Senate race as well.
- Example: President Barack Obama (D) had a very low margin of victory in Florida in both 2012 and 2008. Another close presidential race in 2016 was expected to result in a close Senate race as well.
3. Open seats:
- Incumbents have very high re-election rates. In 2014, 94.4 percent of congressional incumbents who sought re-election won. An open seat is traditionally far more vulnerable than one in which the incumbent is seeking re-election, even if the incumbent is unpopular.
- Incumbents have very high re-election rates. In 2014, 94.4 percent of congressional incumbents who sought re-election won. An open seat is traditionally far more vulnerable than one in which the incumbent is seeking re-election, even if the incumbent is unpopular.
4. Time spent in office:
- The number of terms a senator has spent in office has an impact on how vulnerable they may be. Those freshmen Republican incumbents who were elected in the GOP wave of 2010 were more vulnerable than those who had served multiple terms in the Senate.
- The number of terms a senator has spent in office has an impact on how vulnerable they may be. Those freshmen Republican incumbents who were elected in the GOP wave of 2010 were more vulnerable than those who had served multiple terms in the Senate.
- Example: Illinois, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all featured freshmen Republican senators defending their seats in 2016.
- Example: Illinois, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all featured freshmen Republican senators defending their seats in 2016.
5. Outside race ratings:
- Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and the Rothenberg & Gonzalez Political Report were considered when making our initial list of battlegrounds.
- Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and the Rothenberg & Gonzalez Political Report were considered when making our initial list of battlegrounds.
- Example: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were all rated as Toss-ups by Cook Political Report.
- Example: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were all rated as Toss-ups by Cook Political Report.
6. Special highlights:
- Special highlights could include anything from a rematch of the 2010 Senate race to an incumbent made vulnerable due to a campaign finance controversy. Any special circumstances were taken into account here.
- Special highlights could include anything from a rematch of the 2010 Senate race to an incumbent made vulnerable due to a campaign finance controversy. Any special circumstances were taken into account here.
- Example: In Wisconsin, incumbent Ron Johnson (R) faced a rematch with former Senator Russ Feingold (D). Johnson ousted Feingold in a close race in 2010.
Battlegrounds
The following table displays the results of the election in each battleground district.
| United States Senate Battleground Results | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Incumbent | Winner | Partisan switch? | Margin of victory |
| Florida | No | 7.7% | ||
| Illinois | Yes | 15.1% | ||
| Indiana | No | 9.7% | ||
| Missouri | No | 2.8% | ||
| Nevada | No | 2.4% | ||
| New Hampshire | Yes | 0.1% | ||
| North Carolina | No | 5.7% | ||
| Pennsylvania | No | 1.4% | ||
| Wisconsin | No | 3.4% | ||
This table displays the criteria used to determine competitiveness in more specific detail. It gives ranges for each criterion and the competitiveness associated with each. Each state was analyzed using this as a baseline to determine competitiveness.
| Color Key | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Color | Margin of Victory (MOV) | Presidential MOV % | Term in office | Open seat? | Cook rating | |
| Purple – most competitive | 0.0-4.9 | 0.0-4.9 | 1 | Yes | Toss-up | |
| Orange – very competitive | 5.0-7.9 | 5.0-7.9 | N/A | N/A | Lean D/R | |
| Green – competitive | 8.0-10.0 | 8.0-10.0 | 2 | N/A | Likely D/R | |
| Senate winners labeled this color indicate that the party of the winner is different from the party of the presidential winner of the state in 2012 | ||||||
The following races are those that were expected to be the closest in 2016.
| Most competitive 2016 Senate elections | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Incumbent's party | Senate MOV 2014 | Senate MOV 2012 | Senate MOV 2010 | Presidential MOV 2012 | Presidential MOV 2008 | Incumbent term in office | Open seat? | Cook rating | ||
| Florida | Republican | N/A | 13.0 D | 19.0 R | ✓0.88 | ✓2.82 | 1 | No | Toss-up | ||
| Illinois | Republican | 10.8 D | N/A | 1.6 R | ✓16.87 | ✓25.14 | 1 | No | Lean D | ||
| Indiana | Republican | N/A | 5.8 R | 14.6 R | −10.2% | ✓1.03 | 1 | Yes | Toss-up | ||
| Missouri | Republican | N/A | 15.7 D | 13.6 R | -9.38 | -0.13 | 1 | No | Toss-up | ||
| Nevada | Democratic | N/A | 1.2 R | 5.7 D | ✓6.68 | ✓12.49 | 5 | Yes | Toss-up | ||
| New Hampshire | Republican | 3.3 D | N/A | 23.5 R | ✓5.58 | ✓9.61 | 1 | No | Toss-up | ||
| North Carolina | Republican | 1.5 R | N/A | 11.8 R | -2.04 | ✓0.33 | 2 | No | Toss-up | ||
| Pennsylvania | Republican | N/A | 9.1. D | 2.0 R | ✓5.39 | ✓10.32 | 1 | No | Toss-up | ||
| Wisconsin | Republican | N/A | 5.6 D | 4.9 R | ✓6.94 | ✓13.90 | 1 | No | Lean D | ||
- Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the state went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the state favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.
The following races were all expected to be at least somewhat close, but they were not considered among the most competitive races.
| Races to watch | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Incumbent's party | Senate MOV 2014 | Senate MOV 2012 | Senate MOV 2010 | Presidential MOV 2012 | Presidential MOV 2008 | Incumbent term in office | Open seat? | Cook rating | ||
| Arizona | Republican | N/A | 3 R | 24.2 R | -9.06 | -8.52 | 5 | No | Lean R | ||
| Ohio | Republican | N/A | 6.0 D | 18.3 R | ✓2.98 | ✓4.59 | 1 | No | Toss-up | ||
- Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the state went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the state favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.
Presidential impact
Presidential elections have a significant impact on congressional elections, the most obvious of which is increased voter interest and participation. In the last two decades, presidential elections have led to roughly 15 to 20 percent higher turnout rates than in the corresponding midterm elections.[3] The following chart shows the disparity between voter turnout in presidential elections and midterms.
In the past decade, presidential elections have benefited the Democratic Party, while midterms have helped Republicans. The Democratic Party gained an average of 5 Senate seats in the last two presidential elections, and the Republican Party picked up an average of 7.5 seats in the last two midterms.[4] The fact that 2016 was a presidential election cycle was a cause of increased Republican vulnerability in the Senate.
| Past partisan breakdowns | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Democrats | Republicans | Independents[5] | Net change |
| 2014 | 44 | 54 | 2 | +9 R |
| 2012 | 53 | 45 | 2 | +2 D |
| 2010 | 51 | 47 | 2 | +6 R |
| 2008 | 57 | 41 | 2 | +8 D |
| 2006 | 49 | 49 | 2 | +5 D |
Presidential coattails
Of the states that had Republican senators up for election, the senators’ average win was 3.2 percent higher than President-elect Donald Trump’s average win, according to preliminary vote totals.[6] Trump's average win was 55.4 percent, while Republican senators' average win was 58.6 percent.
In Ballotpedia’s battleground races and races to watch, Republican Senators John McCain (Ariz.), Marco Rubio (Fla.), Richard Burr (N.C.), Pat Toomey (Pa.), and Ron Johnson (Wis.) ran ahead of Trump. Trump ran ahead of Senator-elect Todd Young (Ind.) and Senator Roy Blunt (Mo.).
Trump lost Illinois, Nevada, and New Hampshire, and the Republican candidates also lost their races in those states. Senator Mark Kirk ran ahead of Trump in Illinois, Trump ran ahead of Rep. Joe Heck in Nevada, and Sen. Kelly Ayotte ran ahead of Trump in New Hampshire.
Missouri Senator Roy Blunt saw the biggest coattails effect from Trump. Trump won 57.1 percent of the vote, while Blunt won 49.4 percent. In Ohio, Trump saw the largest reverse coattails from Senator Rob Portman, who won the state with 58.3 percent of the vote. Trump earned 52.1 percent of the vote in Ohio.
A full breakdown of the presidential and Senate races appears below.
*Ballotpedia identified the highlighted races as battleground races and races to watch. The vote percentages are from CNN and will be updated after the final results are released.
| 2016 Republican Presidential and Senate election results | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| State | Presidential candidate vote % | Senate candidate vote % | Vote % Difference |
| Alabama | Donald Trump | Incumbent Richard Shelby | |
| Totals | 62.9% |
64.2% |
Shelby +1.3% |
| Alaska | Donald Trump | Incumbent Lisa Murkowski | |
| Totals | 53.3% |
43.8% |
Trump +9.5% |
| Arizona | Donald Trump | Incumbent John McCain | |
| Totals | 49.5% |
53.4% |
McCain +3.9% |
| Arkansas | Donald Trump | Incumbent John Boozman | |
| Totals | 60.4% |
59.8% |
Trump +0.6% |
| Florida | Donald Trump | Incumbent Marco Rubio | |
| Totals | 49.1% |
52.1% |
Rubio +3.0% |
| Georgia | Donald Trump | Incumbent Johnny Isakson | |
| Totals | 51.4% |
55.1% |
Isakson +3.7% |
| Idaho | Donald Trump | Incumbent Mike Crapo | |
| Totals | 59.0% |
66.0% |
Crapo +7.0% |
| Indiana | Donald Trump | Todd Young | |
| Totals | 57.2% |
52.2% |
Trump + 5.0% |
| Iowa | Donald Trump | Incumbent Chuck Grassley | |
| Totals | 51.7% |
60.1% |
Grassley +8.4% |
| Kansas | Donald Trump | Incumbent Jerry Moran | |
| Totals | 57.2% |
62.4% |
Moran +5.2% |
| Kentucky | Donald Trump | Incumbent Rand Paul | |
| Totals | 62.5% |
+57.3% |
Trump +5.2% |
| Louisiana | Donald Trump | Multiple Republican candidates | |
| Totals | 58.1% |
(Race not called) | - |
| Missouri | Donald Trump | Incumbent Roy Blunt | |
| Totals | 57.1% |
49.4% |
Trump +7.7% |
| North Carolina | Donald Trump | Incumbent Richard Burr | |
| Totals | 50.5% |
51.1% |
Burr +0.6% |
| North Dakota | Donald Trump | Incumbent John Hoeven | |
| Totals | 64.1% |
78.6% |
Hoeven +14.5% |
| Ohio | Donald Trump | Incumbent Rob Portman | |
| Totals | 52.1% |
58.3% |
Portman +6.2% |
| Oklahoma | Donald Trump | Incumbent James Lankford | |
| Totals | 65.3% |
67.7% |
Lankford +2.4% |
| Pennsylvania | Donald Trump | Incumbent Pat Toomey | |
| Totals | 48.8% |
48.9% |
Toomey +0.1% |
| South Carolina | Donald Trump | Incumbent Tim Scott | |
| Totals | 55.6% |
61.2% |
Scott +5.6% |
| South Dakota | Donald Trump | Incumbent John Thune | |
| Totals | 61.5% |
71.8% |
Thune +10.3% |
| Utah | Donald Trump | Incumbent Mike Lee | |
| Totals | 45.5% |
67.4% |
Lee +21.9% |
| Wisconsin | Donald Trump | Incumbent Ron Johnson | |
| Totals | 47.9% |
50.2% |
Johnson +2.3% |
| California | Donald Trump | No Republican on the ballot | |
| Totals | 33.3% |
No Republican on the ballot | - |
| Colorado | Donald Trump | Darryl Glenn | |
| Totals | 44.8% |
45.8% |
Glenn +1.0% |
| Connecticut | Donald Trump | Dan Carter | |
| Totals | 41.6% |
35.3% |
Trump +6.3% |
| Hawaii | Donald Trump | John Carroll | |
| Totals | 30.1% |
22.2% |
Trump +7.9% |
| Illinois | Donald Trump | Incumbent Mark Kirk | |
| Totals | 39.4% |
40.2% |
Kirk +0.8% |
| Maryland | Donald Trump | Kathy Szeliga | |
| Totals | 35.3% |
36.4% |
Szeliga +1.1% |
| Nevada | Donald Trump | Joe Heck | |
| Totals | 45.5% |
44.7% |
Trump +0.8% |
| New Hampshire | Donald Trump | Incumbent Kelly Ayotte | |
| Totals | 47.2% |
47.9% |
Ayotte +0.7% |
| New York | Donald Trump | Wendy Long | |
| Totals | 37.5% |
27.5% |
Trump +10.0% |
| Oregon | Donald Trump | Mark Callahan | |
| Totals | 41.3% |
33.9% |
Trump +7.4% |
| Vermont | Donald Trump | Scott Milne | |
| Totals | 32.6% |
33.0% |
Milne +0.4% |
| Washington | Donald Trump | Chris Vance | |
| Totals | 37.7% |
39.2% |
Vance +1.5% |
| Totals | Trump's average win: 55.4% | Republican senators' average win: 58.6% | Republican senators +3.2% |
Race summaries
Florida
Incumbent Marco Rubio won re-election following his unsuccessful 2016 presidential run. His entry into the race on June 22, 2016, came just days before the state's filing deadline.
The seat was held by a Republican, but the state backed President Obama by a narrow margin in both 2012 and 2008. Additionally, voters re-elected Democrat Bill Nelson by 13 points in 2012. Due to these factors, the state was labeled a battleground in 2016.
Illinois
Illinois' U.S. Senate seat was held by incumbent Mark Kirk (R). Kirk was one of two Republican losses in the Senate in 2016. Kirk was a freshman Republican senator who won election in 2010 by a slim 1.6 percent margin in a state that has a Democratic lean. Kirk sought re-election in 2016 and was defeated by U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth in the general election. Heading into the election, Duckworth led the incumbent in total fundraising and cash on hand.
Illinois overwhelmingly backed President Obama in the 2012 and 2008 presidential elections. Additionally, voters re-elected Democrat Dick Durbin by 10.8 percent in 2014, a strong year for Republicans. These factors made Kirk one of the most vulnerable senators in 2016.
Indiana
Indiana's U.S. Senate seat was held by incumbent Dan Coats (R). Coats first won election in 2010 and did not seek re-election to a second term in 2016. Rep. Todd Young was the Republican nominee. He comfortably defeated former Sen. Evan Bayh (D) in the general election. Bayh entered the race on July 11, 2016, after the original Democratic nominee, Baron Hill, dropped out of the race. Bayh's entry into the race prompted it to be classified as a battleground. Bayh had high name recognition and previously served in the Senate from 1999 to 2011. He also previously served as Governor and Secretary of State of Indiana.
Missouri
Missouri's U.S. Senate race was the most recent addition to our battleground races. Incumbent Roy Blunt (R) won re-election, defeating Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) in the general election. While the race was initially expected to be noncompetitive, polling showed a much closer race than anticipated. As a result, both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Senate Leadership Fund poured money into the race. Missouri supported the Republican nominee in the last two presidential elections, so it was still expected to be an uphill battle for Kander.
Nevada
Nevada's U.S. Senate seat was the only seat that was held by a Democrat to make it onto our list of battlegrounds. The seat was open following the retirement of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. Former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Joe Heck (R) and a number of third-party candidates in the general election.
In both 2012 and 2010, Nevada's Senate race was close. Reid won re-election in 2010 by 5.7 percent, while Republican incumbent Dean Heller won re-election in 2012 by a narrow 1.2 percent. President Barack Obama won the state in both 2012 and 2008, but he won by a small 6.68 percent in 2012.
New Hampshire
In New Hampshire, incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) lost her re-election bid to Governor Maggie Hassan (D). This was the closest Senate race in the country, being decided by 0.1 percent of the vote. While Ayotte did win election handily in 2010 by a margin of 23.5 percent, she had a much more difficult re-election bid in 2016. Polling showed the candidates to be roughly tied heading into the election.
Barack Obama won New Hampshire by 9.61 percent in 2008 and 5.58 percent in 2012. Additionally, incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) won re-election to the Senate by 3.3 percent in 2014.
North Carolina
Incumbent Richard Burr (R) won re-election to his third term in 2016. Burr defeated former state Rep. Deborah Ross (D) in the general election. While formerly designated as only a race to watch, polling in early August 2016 showed Burr to only have a slight lead over Ross, prompting a reclassification to battleground status. Burr had a sizable lead over the challenger in total contributions this cycle, although Ross did out-raise Burr in the later half of the cycle.
North Carolina has featured a very tight presidential race in the last two election cycles. President Barack Obama won the state by 0.33 percent in 2008, while Mitt Romney took the state by 2.04 percent of the vote in 2012.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, incumbent Pat Toomey (R) won re-election to his second term. Toomey won election in 2010 by a slim 2 percent margin. He defeated Katie McGinty (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016.
Pennsylvania was won by President Barack Obama in both 2012 and 2008. Additionally, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. won re-election to the Senate in 2012 by a margin of 9.1 percent.
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, incumbent Ron Johnson (R) won re-election to his second term in 2016. He defeated former Senator Russ Feingold (D) in a rematch. Feingold represented Wisconsin in the U.S. Senate from 1993 to 2011 and was ousted by Johnson in the 2010 election.
Barack Obama won Wisconsin by 13.9 percent in 2008 and 6.94 percent in 2012. Additionally, Johnson beat Feingold by just under 5 points in 2010, and Tammy Baldwin (D) won election to the Senate in 2012 by a margin of 5.6 percent. These factors made Johnson one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country in 2016.
Battlegrounds timeline
Battleground races shifted a number of times as candidates jumped into races and polling data became readily available. Ballotpedia's team carefully monitored for factors that significantly changed the outlook of races. The changes are detailed below.
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia had nine races designated as battlegrounds and two other races rated as competitive.
| Ballotpedia's Battleground Ratings -- U.S. Senate | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Safe D | Competitive D | Battleground D | Battleground R | Competitive R | Safe R | Total D | Total R | Total races | |
| October 19, 2016 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 24 | 34 | |
| September 21, 2016 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 24 | 34 | |
| August 24, 2016 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 24 | 34 | |
| August 4, 2016 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 24 | 34 | |
| July 11, 2016 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 24 | 34 | |
| January 15, 2016 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 24 | 34 | |
October 2016
- Missouri: Missouri was upgraded from a race to watch to a battleground after polling showed a much closer race than anticipated, and outside groups began investing millions into the race.
September 2016
- Colorado: Colorado was moved from a race to watch to safely Democratic after polling and fundraising totals showed a significant lead for the incumbent.
- Ohio: Ohio was downgraded from a battleground to a race to watch. Polling showed incumbent Rob Portman (R) to have a significant lead over challenger Ted Strickland (D). The DSCC also cancelled millions of dollars of ad reservations in Ohio in October and November.
August 2016
- North Carolina: North Carolina was bumped up to a battleground from a race to watch after multiple polls showed a tight race between incumbent Richard Burr (R) and challenger Deborah Ross (D).
July 2016
In July we completed our first major overhaul of battleground races since the original classification in March. As a result, there were several changes in battleground ratings.
- Arizona: Arizona was added to the list of races to watch. Incumbent John McCain (R) faced a credible challenger in Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. However, McCain was still a clear favorite in the race.
- Indiana: Indiana was added to the list of battleground races after Democratic nominee Baron Hill dropped out of the race and was replaced by former Sen. Evan Bayh. Bayh entered the race with high name recognition, as he previously served in the positions of Secretary of State, Governor, and U.S. Senator.
- Ohio: Ohio was reclassified from a race to watch to a battleground. Polling had shown a tighter race between the incumbent Rob Portman and former Gov. Ted Strickland than we initially anticipated.
Outside race ratings
The following table compares Ballotpedia's battleground ratings with the most recent race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and The Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report.
| U.S. Senate race ratings comparison | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Ballotpedia | Cook[7] | Sabato[8] | Rothenberg[9] |
| Alabama | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Alaska | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Arizona | Competitive R | Lean R | Likely R | R Favored |
| Arkansas | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R |
| California | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Colorado | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Connecticut | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Florida | Battleground | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R |
| Georgia | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Hawaii | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Idaho | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Illinois | Battleground | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D |
| Indiana | Battleground | Toss-up | Toss-up | Pure Toss-up |
| Iowa | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Kansas | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Kentucky | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Louisiana | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R |
| Maryland | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Missouri | Battleground | Toss-up | Toss-up | Pure Toss-up |
| Nevada | Battleground | Toss-up | Toss-up | Pure Toss-up |
| New Hampshire | Battleground | Toss-up | Toss-up | Pure Toss-up |
| New York | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D |
| North Carolina | Battleground | Toss-up | Toss-up | Pure Toss-up |
| North Dakota | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Ohio | Competitive R | Lean R | Safe R | R Favored |
| Oklahoma | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Oregon | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Pennsylvania | Battleground | Toss-up | Lean D | Pure Toss-up |
| South Carolina | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R |
| South Dakota | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Utah | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Vermont | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Washington | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Wisconsin | Battleground | Toss-up | Lean D | Toss-up/Tilt D |
See also
- United States Congress elections, 2016
- United States Senate elections, 2016
- Presidential election, 2016
- United States Senate
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 NPR, "Scalia's Death Will Cast A Long Shadow Across This Year's Senate Races," February 15, 2016
- ↑ Los Angeles Times, "In search for Scalia's successor, Obama may see GOP opposition as incentive to select a liberal," February 14, 2016
- ↑ United States Election Project, "Voter Turnout," accessed September 6, 2015
- ↑ United States Senate, "Party Division in the Senate, 1789-Present," accessed September 6, 2015
- ↑ Independents caucus with the Democratic party
- ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 9, 2016
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "2016 Senate Race Ratings," accessed November 6, 2016
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," accessed November 6, 2016
- ↑ The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, "Senate Ratings," accessed November 6, 2016
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For information about public policy issues in the 2016 elections, see: Public policy in the 2016 elections!
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