Pivot Counties in Minnesota
| 2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties |
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Retained • Boomerang Margins of victory Voter turnout Demographics |
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.
Following the 2016 presidential election, Minnesota had 19 Pivot Counties.
Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.
After the 2020 presidential election, the state had 15 Retained Pivot Counties and four Boomerang Pivot Counties.
List of Pivot Counties
The table below lists the Pivot Counties in Minnesota. These counties accounted for 21.84 percent of the total counties in Minnesota, and 9.97 percent of the state population.
| Analysis of Minnesota counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election[1] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Winner, 2020 | Margin of Victory, 2020 | Trump Margin of Victory, 2016 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2012 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2008 | |
| Beltrami County | Minnesota | Retained | +3.15 | +9.72 | +9.89 | +10.15 | |
| Blue Earth County | Minnesota | Boomerang | +4.44 | +3.69 | +9.48 | +12.95 | |
| Chippewa County | Minnesota | Retained | +30.62 | +28.7 | +1.87 | +5.87 | |
| Clay County | Minnesota | Boomerang | +4.08 | +1.95 | +7.92 | +16.02 | |
| Fillmore County | Minnesota | Retained | +22.65 | +21.7 | +7.34 | +8.26 | |
| Freeborn County | Minnesota | Retained | +15.99 | +17.24 | +14.11 | +17.13 | |
| Houston County | Minnesota | Retained | +12.95 | +13.87 | +3.16 | +10.69 | |
| Itasca County | Minnesota | Retained | +16.77 | +16.35 | +9.83 | +12.92 | |
| Kittson County | Minnesota | Retained | +20.46 | +22.05 | +6.03 | +18.54 | |
| Koochiching County | Minnesota | Retained | +21.27 | +19.85 | +9.45 | +10.1 | |
| Lac qui Parle County | Minnesota | Retained | +26.78 | +25.6 | +0.9 | +5.92 | |
| Mahnomen County | Minnesota | Retained | +1.3 | +2.92 | +18.56 | +25.31 | |
| Mower County | Minnesota | Retained | +5.82 | +7.82 | +22.61 | +23.61 | |
| Nicollet County | Minnesota | Boomerang | +3.16 | +3.04 | +7.83 | +10.52 | |
| Norman County | Minnesota | Retained | +15.95 | +13.34 | +10.79 | +26.94 | |
| Rice County | Minnesota | Retained | +0.17 | +3.06 | +8.27 | +11.5 | |
| Swift County | Minnesota | Retained | +29.5 | +25.57 | +9.83 | +13.79 | |
| Traverse County | Minnesota | Retained | +27.41 | +23.3 | +4.44 | +5.41 | |
| Winona County | Minnesota | Boomerang | +0.39 | +2.9 | +12.85 | +19.09 | |
The map below shows Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties in Minnesota shaded bright red and blue, respectively.
2020 analysis
Voter turnout
Minnesota has 19 Pivot Counties, 21.8% of the state's 87 total counties. Of those 19 Pivot Counties, the state has 15 Retained Pivot Counties and four Boomerang Pivot Counties, responsible for 5.47% and 3.50% of the statewide turnout, respectively.
| Voter turnout in Minnesota and its Pivot Counties | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Overview | ||||||
| Minnesota | 3,277,171 | 4,037,275 | 81.17% | - | ||
| Retained Pivot Counties | 179,194 | 244,005 | 73.44% | 5.47% | ||
| Boomerang Pivot Counties | 114,588 | 163,990 | 69.87% | 3.50% | ||
| County-specific | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Beltrami | 24,189 | 34,115 | 70.90% | 0.74% | ||
| Blue Earth | 36,051 | 51,405 | 70.13% | 1.10% | ||
| Chippewa | 6,611 | 8,815 | 75.00% | 0.20% | ||
| Clay | 32,239 | 46,400 | 69.48% | 0.98% | ||
| Fillmore | 12,142 | 15,610 | 77.78% | 0.37% | ||
| Freeborn | 16,818 | 22,835 | 73.65% | 0.51% | ||
| Houston | 11,440 | 14,550 | 78.63% | 0.35% | ||
| Itasca | 26,561 | 35,500 | 74.82% | 0.81% | ||
| Kittson | 2,639 | 3,355 | 78.66% | 0.08% | ||
| Koochiching | 6,922 | 9,985 | 69.32% | 0.21% | ||
| Lac qui Parle | 4,040 | 5,390 | 74.95% | 0.12% | ||
| Mahnomen | 2,304 | 3,765 | 61.20% | 0.07% | ||
| Mower | 19,345 | 27,335 | 70.77% | 0.59% | ||
| Nicollet | 19,125 | 25,585 | 74.75% | 0.58% | ||
| Norman | 3,441 | 4,975 | 69.17% | 0.10% | ||
| Rice | 35,686 | 48,035 | 74.29% | 1.09% | ||
| Swift | 5,193 | 7,125 | 72.88% | 0.16% | ||
| Traverse | 1,864 | 2,615 | 71.28% | 0.06% | ||
| Winona | 27,173 | 40,600 | 66.93% | 0.83% | ||
Demographics
This table displays demographic data, on average, by county compared to nationwide and statewide averages with a focus on Pivot Counties. Use the arrows at the top of the table to view 2016 data and changes from 2016 to 2020. Full demographic data can be found here.
2016 analysis
Voting trends
The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in Minnesota since 1960.
| Presidential Elections in Minnesota Pivot Counties since 1960 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate | Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate | Elections matching national result | |||
| Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | |
| Beltrami County, Minnesota | 3 | 20.00% | 12 | 80.00% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Blue Earth County, Minnesota | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Chippewa County, Minnesota | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Clay County, Minnesota | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Fillmore County, Minnesota | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Freeborn County, Minnesota | 4 | 26.67% | 11 | 73.33% | 9 | 60.00% |
| Houston County, Minnesota | 11 | 73.33% | 4 | 26.67% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Itasca County, Minnesota | 1 | 6.67% | 14 | 93.33% | 8 | 53.33% |
| Kittson County, Minnesota | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Koochiching County, Minnesota | 3 | 20.00% | 12 | 80.00% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Lac qui Parle County, Minnesota | 3 | 20.00% | 12 | 80.00% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Mahnomen County, Minnesota | 4 | 26.67% | 11 | 73.33% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Mower County, Minnesota | 2 | 13.33% | 13 | 86.67% | 7 | 46.67% |
| Nicollet County, Minnesota | 9 | 60.00% | 6 | 40.00% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Norman County, Minnesota | 3 | 20.00% | 12 | 80.00% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Rice County, Minnesota | 3 | 20.00% | 12 | 80.00% | 8 | 53.33% |
| Swift County, Minnesota | 1 | 6.67% | 14 | 93.33% | 8 | 53.33% |
| Traverse County, Minnesota | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Winona County, Minnesota | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Average | 5 | 31.93% | 10 | 68.07% | 10 | 68.77% |
| Median | 4 | 26.67% | 11 | 73.33% | 11 | 73.33% |
2016 election results
- See also: Presidential election in Minnesota, 2016
In 2016, Minnesota had 10 electoral votes, which was 1.8 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 3.7 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Presidential caucuses in Minnesota took place on March 1, 2016. Bernie Sanders won the Democratic caucuses with 61.2 percent of the vote. Marco Rubio won the Republican caucuses with 36.2 percent.
General election
| U.S. presidential election, Minnesota, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic |  Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine |
46.4% | 1,367,716 | 10 | |
| Republican | Donald Trump/Mike Pence | 44.9% | 1,322,951 | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson/Bill Weld | 3.8% | 112,972 | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka | 1.3% | 36,985 | 0 | |
| Constitution | Darrell Castle/Scott Bradley | 0.3% | 9,456 | 0 | |
| Legal Marijuana Now | Dan R. Vacek/Mark G. Elworth Jr. | 0.4% | 11,291 | 0 | |
| Socialist Workers Party | Alyson Kennedy/Osborne Hart | 0.1% | 1,672 | 0 | |
| American Delta Party | Roque De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg | 0% | 1,431 | 0 | |
| Independence | Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson | 1.8% | 53,076 | 0 | |
| - | Write-in votes | 0.9% | 27,263 | 0 | |
| Total Votes | 2,944,813 | 10 | |||
| Election results via: Minnesota Secretary of State | |||||
Primaries
| Minnesota Democratic Caucus, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
| Hillary Clinton | 38.1% | 78,317 | 31 | |
| Bernie Sanders |
61.2% | 125,635 | 46 | |
| Martin O'Malley | 0.1% | 153 | 0 | |
| Roque De La Fuente | 0% | 53 | 0 | |
| Other | 0.1% | 213 | 0 | |
| Uncommitted | 0.5% | 1,067 | 0 | |
| Totals | 205,438 | 77 | ||
| Source: Minnesota Secretary of State and CNN | ||||
| Minnesota Republican Caucus, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
| Donald Trump | 21.4% | 24,473 | 8 | |
| Marco Rubio |
36.2% | 41,397 | 17 | |
| Ted Cruz | 29% | 33,181 | 13 | |
| John Kasich | 5.7% | 6,565 | 0 | |
| Ben Carson | 7.4% | 8,422 | 0 | |
| Other | 0.2% | 207 | 0 | |
| Totals | 114,245 | 38 | ||
| Source: Minnesota Secretary of State and CNN | ||||
See also
- List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
- Pivot Counties by state
- Presidential election, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
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