Pivot Counties in Maine
| 2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties |
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Retained • Boomerang Margins of victory Voter turnout Demographics |
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.
Following the 2016 presidential election, Maine had eight Pivot Counties.
Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.
After the 2020 presidential election, the state had seven Retained Pivot Counties and one Boomerang Pivot County.
List of Pivot Counties
The table below lists the Pivot Counties in Maine. These counties accounted for 50 percent of the total counties in Maine, and 47.08 percent of the state population.
| Analysis of Maine counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election[1] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Winner, 2020 | Margin of Victory, 2020 | Trump Margin of Victory, 2016 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2012 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2008 | |
| Androscoggin County | Maine | Retained | +2.81 | +9.38 | +12.78 | +15.22 | |
| Aroostook County | Maine | Retained | +19.93 | +17.19 | +7.62 | +9.58 | |
| Franklin County | Maine | Retained | +3.94 | +5.47 | +18.41 | +20.29 | |
| Kennebec County | Maine | Boomerang | +0.25 | +3.58 | +13.46 | +14.78 | |
| Oxford County | Maine | Retained | +8.79 | +12.94 | +14.73 | +16.04 | |
| Penobscot County | Maine | Retained | +8.34 | +10.91 | +2.93 | +5.12 | |
| Somerset County | Maine | Retained | +23.37 | +22.67 | +1.68 | +5.7 | |
| Washington County | Maine | Retained | +19.78 | +18.44 | +1.6 | +1.01 | |
The map below shows Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties in Maine shaded bright red and blue, respectively.
2020 analysis
Voter turnout
Maine has eight Pivot Counties, 50.0% of the state's 16 total counties. Of those eight Pivot Counties, the state has seven Retained Pivot Counties and one Boomerang Pivot County, responsible for 33.86% and 8.83% of the statewide turnout, respectively.
| Voter turnout in Maine and its Pivot Counties | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Overview | ||||||
| Maine | 813,742 | 1,059,545 | 76.80% | - | ||
| Retained Pivot Counties | 275,539 | 395,065 | 69.75% | 33.86% | ||
| Boomerang Pivot County | 71,858 | 96,440 | 74.51% | 8.83% | ||
| County-specific | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Androscoggin | 58,707 | 82,615 | 71.06% | 7.21% | ||
| Aroostook | 35,746 | 54,610 | 65.46% | 4.39% | ||
| Franklin | 17,390 | 24,375 | 71.34% | 2.14% | ||
| Kennebec | 71,858 | 96,440 | 74.51% | 8.83% | ||
| Oxford | 33,492 | 46,050 | 72.73% | 4.12% | ||
| Penobscot | 85,269 | 121,775 | 70.02% | 10.48% | ||
| Somerset | 27,578 | 40,490 | 68.11% | 3.39% | ||
| Washington | 17,357 | 25,150 | 69.01% | 2.13% | ||
Demographics
This table displays demographic data, on average, by county compared to nationwide and statewide averages with a focus on Pivot Counties. Use the arrows at the top of the table to view 2016 data and changes from 2016 to 2020. Full demographic data can be found here.
2016 analysis
Voting trends
The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in Maine since 1960.
| Presidential Elections in Maine Pivot Counties since 1960 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate | Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate | Elections matching national result | |||
| Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | |
| Androscoggin County, Maine | 3 | 20.00% | 12 | 80.00% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Aroostook County, Maine | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Franklin County, Maine | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Kennebec County, Maine | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Oxford County, Maine | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Penobscot County, Maine | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Somerset County, Maine | 6 | 40.00% | 8 | 53.33% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Washington County, Maine | 9 | 60.00% | 6 | 40.00% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Average | 7 | 44.17% | 8 | 55.00% | 11 | 70.00% |
| Median | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 10 | 66.67% |
2016 election results
- See also: Presidential election in Maine, 2016
In 2016, Maine had four electoral votes, which was 0.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 1.5 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Maine is one of two states that awards its electoral votes proportionally. The other is Nebraska. Maine adopted this system in 1972. Maine's second congressional district was a key battleground in the 2016 presidential election. Bernie Sanders won the Maine Democratic caucuses on March 6, 2016, with 64.3 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz won the Maine Republican caucuses on March 5, 2016, with 45.9 percent.
General election
| U.S. presidential election, Maine, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic |  Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine |
47.8% | 357,735 | 3 | |
| Republican | Donald Trump/Mike Pence | 44.9% | 335,593 | 1 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson/Bill Weld | 5.1% | 38,105 | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka | 1.9% | 14,251 | 0 | |
| - | Other/Write-in | 0.3% | 2,243 | 0 | |
| Total Votes | 747,927 | 4 | |||
| Election results via: Federal Election Commission | |||||
Caucuses
| Maine Democratic Caucus, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Bernie Sanders |
64.3% | 2,231 | 17 | |
| Hillary Clinton | 35.9% | 1,232 | 8 | |
| Other | 0.2% | 7 | 0 | |
| Totals | 3,470 | 25 | ||
| Source: CNN and The New York Times | ||||
Vote totals represent state delegates won.
| Maine Republican Caucus, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Ted Cruz |
45.9% | 8,550 | 12 | |
| Donald Trump | 32.6% | 6,070 | 9 | |
| John Kasich | 12.2% | 2,270 | 2 | |
| Marco Rubio | 8% | 1,492 | 0 | |
| Ben Carson | 0.7% | 132 | 0 | |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 55 | 0 | |
| Other | 0.3% | 58 | 0 | |
| Totals | 18,627 | 23 | ||
| Source: The New York Times | ||||
See also
- List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
- Pivot Counties by state
- Presidential election, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
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