Pivot Counties in Montana
| 2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties |
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Retained • Boomerang Margins of victory Voter turnout Demographics |
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.
Following the 2016 presidential election, Montana had three Pivot Counties.
Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.
After the 2020 presidential election, the state had two Retained Pivot Counties and one Boomerang Pivot County.
List of Pivot Counties
The table below lists the Pivot Counties in Montana. These counties accounted for 5.36 percent of the total counties in Montana, and 3.37 percent of the state population.
| Analysis of Montana counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election[1] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Winner, 2020 | Margin of Victory, 2020 | Trump Margin of Victory, 2016 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2012 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2008 | |
| Blaine County | Montana | Boomerang | +3.85 | +2.46 | +15.32 | +19.24 | |
| Hill County | Montana | Retained | +13.59 | +17.18 | +3.5 | +12.21 | |
| Roosevelt County | Montana | Retained | +2.14 | +6.49 | +15.58 | +26.27 | |
The map below shows Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties in Montana shaded bright red and blue, respectively.
2020 analysis
Voter turnout
Montana has three Pivot Counties, 5.4% of the state's 56 total counties. Of those three Pivot Counties, the state has two Retained Pivot Counties and one Boomerang Pivot County, responsible for 1.86% and 0.52% of the statewide turnout, respectively.
| Voter turnout in Montana and its Pivot Counties | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Overview | ||||||
| Montana | 603,674 | 804,260 | 75.06% | - | ||
| Retained Pivot Counties | 11,199 | 19,255 | 58.16% | 1.86% | ||
| Boomerang Pivot County | 3,118 | 4,715 | 66.13% | 0.52% | ||
| County-specific | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Blaine | 3,118 | 4,715 | 66.13% | 0.52% | ||
| Hill | 7,182 | 11,800 | 60.86% | 1.19% | ||
| Roosevelt | 4,017 | 7,455 | 53.88% | 0.67% | ||
Demographics
This table displays demographic data, on average, by county compared to nationwide and statewide averages with a focus on Pivot Counties. Use the arrows at the top of the table to view 2016 data and changes from 2016 to 2020. Full demographic data can be found here.
2016 analysis
Voting trends
The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in Montana since 1960.
| Presidential Elections in Montana Pivot Counties since 1960 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate | Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate | Elections matching national result | |||
| Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | |
| Blaine County, Montana | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 14 | 93.33% |
| Hill County, Montana | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 13 | 86.67% |
| Roosevelt County, Montana | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Average | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 13 | 86.67% |
| Median | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 13 | 86.67% |
2016 election results
- See also: Presidential election in Montana, 2016
In 2016, Montana had three electoral votes, which was 0.5 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 1.1 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Democratic and Republican primaries took place in Montana on June 7, 2016. Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 51.6 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 73.7 percent of the vote.
General election
| U.S. presidential election, Montana, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine | 35.7% | 177,709 | 0 | |
| Republican |  Donald Trump/Mike Pence |
56.2% | 279,240 | 3 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson/Bill Weld | 5.6% | 28,037 | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka | 1.6% | 7,970 | 0 | |
| American Delta | Roque De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg | 0.3% | 1,570 | 0 | |
| - | Other/Write-in | 0.5% | 2,621 | 0 | |
| Total Votes | 497,147 | 3 | |||
| Election results via: Federal Election Commission | |||||
Primaries
| Montana Democratic Primary, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Bernie Sanders |
51.6% | 65,156 | 11 | |
| Hillary Clinton | 44.2% | 55,805 | 10 | |
| Other | 4.3% | 5,415 | 0 | |
| Totals | 126,376 | 21 | ||
| Source: The New York Times and Montana Secretary of State | ||||
| Montana Republican Primary, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Donald Trump |
73.7% | 115,594 | 27 | |
| Ted Cruz | 9.4% | 14,682 | 0 | |
| John Kasich | 6.9% | 10,777 | 0 | |
| Jeb Bush | 2.1% | 3,274 | 0 | |
| Marco Rubio | 3.3% | 5,192 | 0 | |
| Other | 4.7% | 7,369 | 0 | |
| Totals | 156,888 | 27 | ||
| Source: The New York Times and Montana Secretary of State | ||||
See also
- List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
- Pivot Counties by state
- Presidential election, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
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