Pivot Counties in Florida

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Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.

Following the 2016 presidential election, Florida had four Pivot Counties.

Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.

After the 2020 presidential election, the state had three Retained Pivot Counties and one Boomerang Pivot County.

List of Pivot Counties

See also: Election results, 2020: Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election, Presidential election in Florida, 2020

The table below lists the Pivot Counties in Florida. These counties accounted for 5.97 percent of the total counties in Florida, and 6.71 percent of the state population.

Analysis of Florida counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election[1]
County State Winner, 2020 Margin of Victory, 2020 Trump Margin of Victory, 2016 Obama Margin of Victory, 2012 Obama Margin of Victory, 2008
Jefferson County Florida Retained +6.87 +5.06 +1.75 +3.66
Monroe County Florida Retained +7.92 +6.82 +0.44 +4.9
Pinellas County Florida Boomerang +0.22 +1.11 +5.65 +8.25
St. Lucie County Florida Retained +1.56 +2.4 +7.86 +12.12


The map below shows Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties in Florida shaded bright red and blue, respectively.

2020 analysis

Voter turnout

See also: Election results, 2020: Voter turnout in Pivot Counties

Florida has four Pivot Counties, 6.0% of the state's 67 total counties. Of those four Pivot Counties, the state has three Retained Pivot Counties and one Boomerang Pivot County, responsible for 2.06% and 5.06% of the statewide turnout, respectively.

Voter turnout in Florida and its Pivot Counties
Votes cast Voting age population Turnout Contribution to statewide turnout
Overview
Florida 11,091,758 14,724,115 75.33% -
Retained Pivot Counties 228,952 293,925 77.89% 2.06%
Boomerang Pivot County 561,161 755,260 74.30% 5.06%


Demographics

See also: Election results, 2020: Demographics of the 206 Pivot Counties

This table displays demographic data, on average, by county compared to nationwide and statewide averages with a focus on Pivot Counties. Use the arrows at the top of the table to view 2016 data and changes from 2016 to 2020. Full demographic data can be found here.

2016 analysis

HIGHLIGHTS
  • There were four counties in Florida that voted for Donald Trump in 2016, and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
  • 6.71 percent of the population of Florida resided in these four counties.
  • Since 1960, Pivot Counties in Florida have matched the national election result in 75.00% of presidential elections.

    • Voting trends

    The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in Florida since 1960.

    Presidential Elections in Florida Pivot Counties since 1960
    County Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate Elections matching national result
    Elections Percentage of elections Elections Percentage of elections Elections Percentage of elections
    Jefferson County, Florida 5 33.33% 9 60.00% 10 66.67%
    Monroe County, Florida 5 33.33% 10 66.67% 12 80.00%
    Pinellas County, Florida 9 60.00% 6 40.00% 12 80.00%
    St. Lucie County, Florida 8 53.33% 7 46.67% 11 73.33%
    Average 7 45.00% 8 53.33% 11 75.00%
    Median 7 43.33% 8 53.33% 12 76.67%

    2016 election results

    See also: Presidential election in Florida, 2016

    In 2016, Florida had 29 electoral votes, which was 5.4 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 10.7 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Presidential primary elections in Florida took place on March 15, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary with 64.4 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 45.7 percent.

    General election

    U.S. presidential election, Florida, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 47.8% 4,504,975 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump/Mike Pence 49% 4,617,886 29
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 2.2% 207,043 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 0.7% 64,399 0
         Constitution Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley 0.2% 16,475 0
         Reform Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg 0.1% 9,108 0
         - Other/Write-in 0% 153 0
    Total Votes 9,420,039 29
    Election results via: Florida Division of Elections

    Primaries

    Florida Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton 64.4% 1,101,414 141
    Bernie Sanders 33.3% 568,839 73
    Martin O'Malley 2.3% 38,930 0
    Totals 1,709,183 214
    Source: The New York Times and Florida Department of State
    Florida Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Jeb Bush 1.8% 43,511 0
    Ben Carson 0.9% 21,207 0
    Chris Christie 0.1% 2,493 0
    Ted Cruz 17.1% 404,891 0
    Carly Fiorina 0.1% 1,899 0
    Jim Gilmore 0% 319 0
    Lindsey Graham 0% 693 0
    Mike Huckabee 0.1% 2,624 0
    John Kasich 6.8% 159,976 0
    Rand Paul 0.2% 4,450 0
    Marco Rubio 27% 638,661 0
    Rick Santorum 0.1% 1,211 0
    Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump 45.7% 1,079,870 99
    Totals 2,361,805 99
    Source: The New York Times and Florida Department of State

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
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