Pivot Counties in Wisconsin
| 2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties |
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Retained • Boomerang Margins of victory Voter turnout Demographics |
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.
Following the 2016 presidential election, Wisconsin had 23 Pivot Counties.
Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.
After the 2020 presidential election, the state had 21 Retained Pivot Counties and two Boomerang Pivot Counties.
List of Pivot Counties
The table below lists the Pivot Counties in Wisconsin. These counties accounted for 31.94 percent of the total counties in Wisconsin, and 17.35 percent of the state population.
| Analysis of Wisconsin counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election[1] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Winner, 2020 | Margin of Victory, 2020 | Trump Margin of Victory, 2016 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2012 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2008 | |
| Adams County | Wisconsin | Retained | +25.66 | +21.92 | +8.73 | +18.35 | |
| Buffalo County | Wisconsin | Retained | +25.26 | +21.82 | +2.93 | +14.66 | |
| Columbia County | Wisconsin | Retained | +1.53 | +2.14 | +13.58 | +15.26 | |
| Crawford County | Wisconsin | Retained | +7.67 | +5.4 | +19.98 | +27.03 | |
| Door County | Wisconsin | Boomerang | +1.45 | +3.22 | +6.99 | +17.33 | |
| Dunn County | Wisconsin | Retained | +13.93 | +11.09 | +4.97 | +14.95 | |
| Forest County | Wisconsin | Retained | +30.95 | +26.58 | +5.44 | +15.16 | |
| Grant County | Wisconsin | Retained | +12.28 | +9.43 | +13.77 | +23.88 | |
| Jackson County | Wisconsin | Retained | +15.07 | +11.74 | +15.01 | +21.84 | |
| Juneau County | Wisconsin | Retained | +29.2 | +26.05 | +7.03 | +9 | |
| Kenosha County | Wisconsin | Retained | +3.13 | +0.31 | +12.23 | +18.06 | |
| Lafayette County | Wisconsin | Retained | +13.72 | +8.99 | +15.37 | +22.32 | |
| Lincoln County | Wisconsin | Retained | +22.77 | +20.6 | +0.71 | +12.48 | |
| Marquette County | Wisconsin | Retained | +27.36 | +24.09 | +0.27 | +5.28 | |
| Pepin County | Wisconsin | Retained | +26.42 | +23.08 | +2.22 | +12.89 | |
| Price County | Wisconsin | Retained | +27.64 | +25 | +0.04 | +13.4 | |
| Racine County | Wisconsin | Retained | +4.06 | +4.28 | +3.54 | +7.41 | |
| Richland County | Wisconsin | Retained | +9.72 | +5.5 | +16.13 | +20.63 | |
| Sauk County | Wisconsin | Boomerang | +1.7 | +0.35 | +18.47 | +23.04 | |
| Sawyer County | Wisconsin | Retained | +13.43 | +18.41 | +0.49 | +6.23 | |
| Trempealeau County | Wisconsin | Retained | +16.57 | +12.64 | +14.08 | +26.39 | |
| Vernon County | Wisconsin | Retained | +4.78 | +4.43 | +14.73 | +22 | |
| Winnebago County | Wisconsin | Retained | +3.97 | +7.34 | +3.73 | +11.66 | |
The map below shows Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties in Wisconsin shaded bright red and blue, respectively.
2020 analysis
Voter turnout
Wisconsin has 23 Pivot Counties, 31.9% of the state's 72 total counties. Of those 23 Pivot Counties, the state has 21 Retained Pivot Counties and two Boomerang Pivot Counties, responsible for 15.98% and 1.71% of the statewide turnout, respectively.
| Voter turnout in Wisconsin and its Pivot Counties | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Overview | ||||||
| Wisconsin | 3,298,041 | 4,347,400 | 75.86% | - | ||
| Retained Pivot Counties | 527,131 | 738,060 | 71.42% | 15.98% | ||
| Boomerang Pivot Counties | 56,320 | 70,585 | 79.79% | 1.71% | ||
| County-specific | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Adams | 11,818 | 16,875 | 70.03% | 0.36% | ||
| Buffalo | 7,816 | 10,315 | 75.77% | 0.24% | ||
| Columbia | 33,869 | 43,855 | 77.23% | 1.03% | ||
| Crawford | 8,695 | 12,860 | 67.61% | 0.26% | ||
| Door | 20,117 | 22,585 | 89.07% | 0.61% | ||
| Dunn | 23,524 | 34,940 | 67.33% | 0.71% | ||
| Forest | 5,053 | 7,165 | 70.52% | 0.15% | ||
| Grant | 25,608 | 40,685 | 62.94% | 0.78% | ||
| Jackson | 10,184 | 15,745 | 64.68% | 0.31% | ||
| Juneau | 13,709 | 20,890 | 65.62% | 0.42% | ||
| Kenosha | 88,738 | 123,950 | 71.59% | 2.69% | ||
| Lafayette | 8,555 | 12,340 | 69.33% | 0.26% | ||
| Lincoln | 16,497 | 22,445 | 73.50% | 0.50% | ||
| Marquette | 9,065 | 12,060 | 75.17% | 0.27% | ||
| Pepin | 4,144 | 5,665 | 73.15% | 0.13% | ||
| Price | 8,546 | 10,990 | 77.76% | 0.26% | ||
| Racine | 106,451 | 144,850 | 73.49% | 3.23% | ||
| Richland | 9,014 | 13,455 | 66.99% | 0.27% | ||
| Sauk | 36,203 | 48,000 | 75.42% | 1.10% | ||
| Sawyer | 10,510 | 13,070 | 80.41% | 0.32% | ||
| Trempealeau | 15,380 | 21,425 | 71.79% | 0.47% | ||
| Vernon | 15,923 | 22,405 | 71.07% | 0.48% | ||
| Winnebago | 94,032 | 132,075 | 71.20% | 2.85% | ||
Demographics
This table displays demographic data, on average, by county compared to nationwide and statewide averages with a focus on Pivot Counties. Use the arrows at the top of the table to view 2016 data and changes from 2016 to 2020. Full demographic data can be found here.
2016 analysis
Voting trends
The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in Wisconsin since 1960.
| Presidential Elections in Wisconsin Pivot Counties since 1960 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate | Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate | Elections matching national result | |||
| Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | |
| Adams County, Wisconsin | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Buffalo County, Wisconsin | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Columbia County, Wisconsin | 9 | 60.00% | 6 | 40.00% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Crawford County, Wisconsin | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Door County, Wisconsin | 11 | 73.33% | 4 | 26.67% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Dunn County, Wisconsin | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Forest County, Wisconsin | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Grant County, Wisconsin | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Jackson County, Wisconsin | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Juneau County, Wisconsin | 9 | 60.00% | 6 | 40.00% | 14 | 93.33% |
| Kenosha County, Wisconsin | 2 | 13.33% | 13 | 86.67% | 9 | 60.00% |
| Lafayette County, Wisconsin | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Lincoln County, Wisconsin | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 13 | 86.67% |
| Marquette County, Wisconsin | 10 | 66.67% | 5 | 33.33% | 13 | 86.67% |
| Pepin County, Wisconsin | 3 | 20.00% | 12 | 80.00% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Price County, Wisconsin | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Racine County, Wisconsin | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 13 | 86.67% |
| Richland County, Wisconsin | 10 | 66.67% | 5 | 33.33% | 13 | 86.67% |
| Sauk County, Wisconsin | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Sawyer County, Wisconsin | 9 | 60.00% | 6 | 40.00% | 14 | 93.33% |
| Trempealeau County, Wisconsin | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Vernon County, Wisconsin | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Winnebago County, Wisconsin | 11 | 73.33% | 4 | 26.67% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Average | 7 | 48.70% | 8 | 51.30% | 12 | 77.39% |
| Median | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 11 | 73.33% |
2016 election results
- See also: Presidential election in Wisconsin, 2016
In 2016, Wisconsin had 10 electoral votes, which was 1.8 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 3.7 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Presidential primary elections in Wisconsin took place on April 5, 2016. Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 56.6 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz won the Republican primary with 48.2 percent.
General election
| U.S. presidential election, Wisconsin, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine | 46.5% | 1,382,536 | 0 | |
| Republican |  Donald Trump/Mike Pence |
47.2% | 1,405,284 | 10 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson/Bill Weld | 3.6% | 106,674 | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka | 1% | 31,072 | 0 | |
| Constitution | Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley | 0.4% | 12,162 | 0 | |
| Workers Party | Monica Moorehead/Lamont Lilly | 0.1% | 1,770 | 0 | |
| American Delta | Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg | 0.1% | 1,502 | 0 | |
| - | Write-in votes | 1.2% | 35,150 | 0 | |
| Total Votes | 2,976,150 | 10 | |||
| Election results via: Wisconsin Elections Commission | |||||
Note: The vote totals above are from the recount.
Primaries
| Wisconsin Democratic Primary, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Bernie Sanders |
56.6% | 567,936 | 48 | |
| Hillary Clinton | 43.1% | 432,767 | 38 | |
| Martin O'Malley | 0.2% | 1,765 | 0 | |
| Other | 0.1% | 1,436 | 0 | |
| Totals | 1,003,904 | 86 | ||
| Source: The New York Times and Wisconsin Vote | ||||
| Wisconsin Republican Primary, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Ted Cruz |
48.2% | 531,129 | 36 | |
| Donald Trump | 35.1% | 386,290 | 6 | |
| John Kasich | 14.1% | 155,200 | 0 | |
| Jeb Bush | 0.3% | 3,156 | 0 | |
| Ben Carson | 0.5% | 5,608 | 0 | |
| Chris Christie | 0.1% | 1,310 | 0 | |
| Carly Fiorina | 0.1% | 825 | 0 | |
| Jim Gilmore | 0% | 242 | 0 | |
| Mike Huckabee | 0.1% | 1,428 | 0 | |
| Rand Paul | 0.2% | 2,491 | 0 | |
| Marco Rubio | 1% | 10,569 | 0 | |
| Rick Santorum | 0% | 510 | 0 | |
| Other | 0.2% | 2,288 | 0 | |
| Totals | 1,101,046 | 42 | ||
| Source: The New York Times and Wisconsin Vote | ||||
See also
- List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
- Pivot Counties by state
- Presidential election, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
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