Pivot Counties in Virginia
| 2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties |
|---|
 |
Retained • Boomerang Margins of victory Voter turnout Demographics |
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.
Following the 2016 presidential election, Virginia had five Pivot Counties.
Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.
After the 2020 presidential election, all five were Retained Pivot Counties.
List of Pivot Counties
The table below lists the Pivot Counties in Virginia. These counties accounted for 3.76 percent of the total counties in Virginia, and 3.95 percent of the state population.
| Analysis of Virginia counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election[1] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Winner, 2020 | Margin of Victory, 2020 | Trump Margin of Victory, 2016 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2012 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2008 | |
| Buckingham County | Virginia | Retained | +13.2 | +11.28 | +2.43 | +0.87 | |
| Caroline County | Virginia | Retained | +4.17 | +5.02 | +8.24 | +11.97 | |
| Essex County | Virginia | Retained | +0.6 | +2.14 | +7.3 | +10.35 | |
| Nelson County | Virginia | Retained | +5.21 | +5.59 | +2.72 | +9.15 | |
| Westmoreland County | Virginia | Retained | +8.23 | +7.14 | +6.95 | +10.24 | |
The map below shows Retained Pivot Counties in Virginia shaded bright red.
2020 analysis
Voter turnout
Virginia has five Retained Pivot Counties, 3.8% of the state's 133 total counties. Turnout in these counties accounted for 1.12% of the statewide total turnout.
| Voter turnout in Virginia and its Pivot Counties | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Overview | ||||||
| Virginia | 4,460,524 | 6,096,235 | 73.17% | - | ||
| Retained Pivot Counties | 49,841 | 70,685 | 70.51% | 1.12% | ||
| County-specific | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Buckingham | 8,126 | 13,710 | 59.27% | 0.18% | ||
| Caroline | 16,288 | 22,755 | 71.58% | 0.37% | ||
| Essex | 6,178 | 8,710 | 70.93% | 0.14% | ||
| Nelson | 9,316 | 11,715 | 79.52% | 0.21% | ||
| Westmoreland | 9,933 | 13,795 | 72.00% | 0.22% | ||
Demographics
This table displays demographic data, on average, by county compared to nationwide and statewide averages with a focus on Pivot Counties. Use the arrows at the top of the table to view 2016 data and changes from 2016 to 2020. Full demographic data can be found here.
2016 analysis
Voting trends
The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in Virginia since 1960.
| Presidential Elections in Virginia Pivot Counties since 1960 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate | Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate | Elections matching national result | |||
| Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | |
| Buckingham County, Virginia | 8 | 53.33% | 6 | 40.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Caroline County, Virginia | 3 | 20.00% | 12 | 80.00% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Essex County, Virginia | 11 | 73.33% | 4 | 26.67% | 10 | 66.67% |
| Nelson County, Virginia | 5 | 33.33% | 9 | 60.00% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Westmoreland County, Virginia | 9 | 60.00% | 6 | 40.00% | 14 | 93.33% |
| Average | 7 | 48.00% | 7 | 49.33% | 11 | 76.00% |
| Median | 8 | 53.33% | 6 | 40.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
2016 election results
- See also: Presidential election in Virginia, 2016
In 2016, Virginia had 13 electoral votes, which was 2.4 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 4.8 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Presidential primary elections in Virginia took place on March 1, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary with 64.3 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 34.8 percent.
General election
| U.S. presidential election, Virginia, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic |  Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine |
49.7% | 1,981,473 | 13 | |
| Republican | Donald Trump/Mike Pence | 44.4% | 1,769,443 | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson/Bill Weld | 3% | 118,274 | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka | 0.7% | 27,638 | 0 | |
| Independent | Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson | 1.4% | 54,054 | 0 | |
| - | Other/Write-in | 0.8% | 33,749 | 0 | |
| Total Votes | 3,984,631 | 13 | |||
| Election results via: Federal Election Commission | |||||
Primaries
| Virginia Democratic Primary, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Hillary Clinton |
64.3% | 504,741 | 62 | |
| Bernie Sanders | 35.2% | 276,370 | 33 | |
| Martin O'Malley | 0.5% | 3,930 | 0 | |
| Totals | 785,041 | 95 | ||
| Source: CNN and Virginia Department of Elections | ||||
| Virginia Republican Primary, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
| Marco Rubio | 32% | 327,918 | 16 | |
| Lindsey Graham | 0% | 444 | 0 | |
| Ben Carson | 5.9% | 60,228 | 3 | |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 2,917 | 0 | |
| Mike Huckabee | 0.1% | 1,458 | 0 | |
| Ted Cruz | 16.7% | 171,150 | 8 | |
| Donald Trump |
34.8% | 356,840 | 17 | |
| Jim Gilmore | 0.1% | 653 | 0 | |
| Chris Christie | 0.1% | 1,102 | 0 | |
| Jeb Bush | 0.4% | 3,645 | 0 | |
| Rick Santorum | 0% | 399 | 0 | |
| John Kasich | 9.5% | 97,784 | 5 | |
| Carly Fiorina | 0.1% | 914 | 0 | |
| Totals | 1,025,452 | 49 | ||
| Source: CNN and Virginia Department of Elections | ||||
See also
- List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
- Pivot Counties by state
- Presidential election, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
