Pivot Counties in Pennsylvania
| 2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties |
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Retained • Boomerang Margins of victory Voter turnout Demographics |
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.
Following the 2016 presidential election, Pennsylvania had three Pivot Counties.
Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.
After the 2020 presidential election, the state had one Retained Pivot County and two Boomerang Pivot Counties.
List of Pivot Counties
The table below lists the Pivot Counties in Pennsylvania. These counties accounted for 4.48 percent of the total counties in Pennsylvania, and 7.05 percent of the state population.
| Analysis of Pennsylvania counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election[1] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Winner, 2020 | Margin of Victory, 2020 | Trump Margin of Victory, 2016 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2012 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2008 | |
| Erie County | Pennsylvania | Boomerang | +1.03 | +1.56 | +16.03 | +19.88 | |
| Luzerne County | Pennsylvania | Retained | +14.37 | +19.31 | +4.81 | +8.41 | |
| Northampton County | Pennsylvania | Boomerang | +0.72 | +3.78 | +4.71 | +12.3 | |
The map below shows Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties in Pennsylvania shaded bright red and blue, respectively.
2020 analysis
Voter turnout
Pennsylvania has three Pivot Counties, 4.5% of the state's 67 total counties. Of those three Pivot Counties, the state has one Retained Pivot County and two Boomerang Pivot Counties, responsible for 2.21% and 4.45% of the statewide turnout, respectively.
| Voter turnout in Pennsylvania and its Pivot Counties | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Overview | ||||||
| Pennsylvania | 6,938,383 | 9,748,290 | 71.17% | - | ||
| Retained Pivot County | 153,499 | 246,040 | 62.39% | 2.21% | ||
| Boomerang Pivot Counties | 308,893 | 442,655 | 69.78% | 4.45% | ||
| County-specific | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Erie | 137,494 | 210,235 | 65.40% | 1.98% | ||
| Luzerne | 153,499 | 246,040 | 62.39% | 2.21% | ||
| Northampton | 171,399 | 232,420 | 73.75% | 2.47% | ||
Demographics
This table displays demographic data, on average, by county compared to nationwide and statewide averages with a focus on Pivot Counties. Use the arrows at the top of the table to view 2016 data and changes from 2016 to 2020. Full demographic data can be found here.
2016 analysis
Voting trends
The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in Pennsylvania since 1960.
| Presidential Elections in Pennsylvania Pivot Counties since 1960 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate | Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate | Elections matching national result | |||
| Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | |
| Erie County, Pennsylvania | 4 | 26.67% | 11 | 73.33% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Luzerne County, Pennsylvania | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Northampton County, Pennsylvania | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Average | 5 | 31.11% | 10 | 68.89% | 12 | 77.78% |
| Median | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 12 | 80.00% |
2016 election results
In 2016, Pennsylvania had 20 electoral votes, which was 3.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 7.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Presidential primary elections in Pennsylvania took place on April 26, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary with 55.6 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 56.6 percent.
General election
| U.S. presidential election, Pennsylvania, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine | 47.5% | 2,926,441 | 0 | |
| Republican |  Donald Trump/Mike Pence |
48.2% | 2,970,733 | 20 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson/Bill Weld | 2.4% | 146,715 | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka | 0.8% | 49,941 | 0 | |
| Constitution | Darrell Castle/Scott Bradley | 0.3% | 21,572 | 0 | |
| - | Other/Write-in | 0.8% | 50,076 | 0 | |
| Total Votes | 6,165,478 | 20 | |||
| Election results via: Federal Election Commission | |||||
Primaries
| Pennsylvania Democratic Primary, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Hillary Clinton |
55.6% | 935,107 | 106 | |
| Bernie Sanders | 43.5% | 731,881 | 83 | |
| Roque De La Fuente | 0.9% | 14,439 | 0 | |
| Totals | 1,681,427 | 189 | ||
| Source: The New York Times and Pennsylvania Secretary of State | ||||
| Pennsylvania Republican Primary, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Donald Trump |
56.6% | 902,593 | 17 | |
| Ted Cruz | 21.7% | 345,506 | 0 | |
| John Kasich | 19.4% | 310,003 | 0 | |
| Jeb Bush | 0.6% | 9,577 | 0 | |
| Marco Rubio | 0.7% | 11,954 | 0 | |
| Ben Carson | 0.9% | 14,842 | 0 | |
| Totals | 1,594,475 | 17 | ||
| Source: The New York Times and Pennsylvania Secretary of State | ||||
See also
- List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
- Pivot Counties by state
- Presidential election, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
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