Pivot Counties in Oregon

2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties
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2020 Election Analysis Hub

Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.

Following the 2016 presidential election, Oregon had two Pivot Counties.

Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.

After the 2020 presidential election, both were Retained Pivot Counties.

List of Pivot Counties

See also: Election results, 2020: Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election, Presidential election in Oregon, 2020

The table below lists the Pivot Counties in Oregon. These counties accounted for 5.56 percent of the total counties in Oregon, and 1.91 percent of the state population.

Analysis of Oregon counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election
County	State	Winner, 2020	Margin of Victory, 2020	Trump Margin of Victory, 2016	Obama Margin of Victory, 2012	Obama Margin of Victory, 2008
Columbia County	Oregon	Retained	+10.29	+11.46	+5.16	+12.02
Tillamook County	Oregon	Retained	+1.71	+5.58	+4.86	+9.89

The map below shows the Retained Pivot Counties in Oregon shaded bright red.

2020 analysis

Voter turnout

See also: Election results, 2020: Voter turnout in Pivot Counties

Oregon has two Retained Pivot Counties, 5.6% of the state's 36 total counties. Turnout in these counties accounted for 2.07% of the statewide total turnout.

Voter turnout in Oregon and its Pivot Counties
	Votes cast	Voting age population	Turnout	Contribution to statewide turnout
Overview
Oregon	2,374,321	3,002,260	79.08%	-
Retained Pivot Counties	49,109	59,335	82.77%	2.07%

County-specific
	Votes cast	Voting age population	Turnout	Contribution to statewide turnout
Columbia	32,221	39,115	82.38%	1.36%
Tillamook	16,888	20,220	83.52%	0.71%

Demographics

See also: Election results, 2020: Demographics of the 206 Pivot Counties

This table displays demographic data, on average, by county compared to nationwide and statewide averages with a focus on Pivot Counties. Use the arrows at the top of the table to view 2016 data and changes from 2016 to 2020. Full demographic data can be found here.

2016 analysis

HIGHLIGHTS

There were two counties in Oregon that voted for Donald Trump in 2016, and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

1.91 percent of the population of Oregon resided in these two counties.

Since 1960, Pivot Counties in Oregon have matched the national election result in 66.67% of presidential elections.

Voting trends

The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in Oregon since 1960.

Presidential Elections in Oregon Pivot Counties since 1960
County	Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate		Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate		Elections matching national result
	Elections	Percentage of elections	Elections	Percentage of elections	Elections	Percentage of elections
Columbia County, Oregon	1	6.67%	14	93.33%	8	53.33%
Tillamook County, Oregon	5	33.33%	10	66.67%	12	80.00%
Average	3	20.00%	12	80.00%	10	66.67%
Median	3	20.00%	12	80.00%	10	66.67%

2016 election results

See also: Presidential election in Oregon, 2016

In 2016, Oregon had seven electoral votes, which was 1.3 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 2.6 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Presidential primary elections in Oregon took place on May 17, 2016. Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 56.2 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 64.2 percent.

General election

U.S. presidential election, Oregon, 2016
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine	50.1%	1,002,106	7
	Republican	Donald Trump/Mike Pence	39.1%	782,403	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Bill Weld	4.7%	94,231	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka	2.5%	50,002	0
	-	Write-in votes	3.6%	72,594	0
Total Votes				2,001,336	7
Election results via: Oregon Secretary of State

Primaries

Oregon Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Delegates
Bernie Sanders	56.2%	360,829	36
Hillary Clinton	42.1%	269,846	25
Other	1.7%	10,920	0
Totals		641,595	61
Source: The New York Times and Oregon Secretary of State

Oregon Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Delegates
Donald Trump	64.2%	252,748	18
John Kasich	16.6%	65,513	5
Ted Cruz	15.8%	62,248	5
Other	3.4%	13,441	0
Totals		393,950	28
Source: The New York Times and Oregon Secretary of State

See also

• List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
• Pivot Counties by state
• Presidential election, 2016