Pivot Counties in New Mexico
| 2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties |
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Retained • Boomerang Margins of victory Voter turnout Demographics |
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.
Following the 2016 presidential election, New Mexico had three Pivot Counties.
Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.
After the 2020 presidential election, all three were Retained Pivot Counties.
List of Pivot Counties
The table below lists the Pivot Counties in New Mexico. These counties accounted for 9.09 percent of the total counties in New Mexico, and 4.54 percent of the state population.
| Analysis of New Mexico counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election[1] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Winner, 2020 | Margin of Victory, 2020 | Trump Margin of Victory, 2016 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2012 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2008 | |
| Colfax County | New Mexico | Retained | +10.97 | +8.55 | +2.24 | +10.73 | |
| Hidalgo County | New Mexico | Retained | +15.05 | +6.73 | +4.96 | +2.92 | |
| Valencia County | New Mexico | Retained | +9.61 | +8.6 | +2.47 | +7.72 | |
The map below shows Retained Pivot Counties in New Mexico shaded bright red.
2020 analysis
Voter turnout
New Mexico has three Retained Pivot Counties, 9.1% of the state's 33 total counties. Turnout in these counties accounted for 4.36% of the statewide total turnout.
| Voter turnout in New Mexico and its Pivot Counties | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Overview | ||||||
| New Mexico | 923,965 | 1,485,495 | 62.20% | - | ||
| Retained Pivot Counties | 40,267 | 67,510 | 59.65% | 4.36% | ||
| County-specific | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Colfax | 6,016 | 9,810 | 61.33% | 0.65% | ||
| Hidalgo | 1,974 | 3,210 | 61.50% | 0.21% | ||
| Valencia | 32,277 | 54,490 | 59.23% | 3.49% | ||
Demographics
This table displays demographic data, on average, by county compared to nationwide and statewide averages with a focus on Pivot Counties. Use the arrows at the top of the table to view 2016 data and changes from 2016 to 2020. Full demographic data can be found here.
2016 analysis
Voting trends
The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in New Mexico since 1960.
| Presidential Elections in New Mexico Pivot Counties since 1960 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate | Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate | Elections matching national result | |||
| Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | |
| Colfax County, New Mexico | 5 | 33.33% | 10 | 66.67% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Hidalgo County, New Mexico | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 14 | 93.33% |
| Valencia County, New Mexico | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 15 | 100.00% |
| Average | 7 | 44.44% | 8 | 55.56% | 14 | 91.11% |
| Median | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 14 | 93.33% |
2016 election results
In 2016, New Mexico had five electoral votes, which was 0.9 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 1.8 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Democratic and Republican primaries took place in New Mexico on June 7, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the New Mexico Democratic primary with 51.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the New Mexico Republican primary with 70.7 percent of the vote.
General election
| U.S. presidential election, New Mexico, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic |  Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine |
48.3% | 385,234 | 5 | |
| Republican | Donald Trump/Mike Pence | 40% | 319,667 | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson/Bill Weld | 9.3% | 74,541 | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka | 1.2% | 9,879 | 0 | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria Estela La Riva/Dennis J. Banks | 0.1% | 1,184 | 0 | |
| Constitution | Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley | 0.2% | 1,514 | 0 | |
| American Delta | Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg | 0.1% | 475 | 0 | |
| Better for America | Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson | 0.7% | 5,825 | 0 | |
| Total Votes | 798,319 | 5 | |||
| Election results via: New Mexico Secretary of State | |||||
Primaries
| New Mexico Democratic Primary, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Hillary Clinton |
51.5% | 111,225 | 18 | |
| Bernie Sanders | 48.5% | 104,656 | 16 | |
| Totals | 215,881 | 34 | ||
| Source: The New York Times and New Mexico Secretary of State | ||||
| New Mexico Republican Primary, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Donald Trump |
70.7% | 73,887 | 24 | |
| Ted Cruz | 13.3% | 13,911 | 0 | |
| John Kasich | 7.6% | 7,919 | 0 | |
| Jeb Bush | 3.4% | 3,517 | 0 | |
| Ben Carson | 3.7% | 3,825 | 0 | |
| Carly Fiorina | 1.4% | 1,507 | 0 | |
| Totals | 104,566 | 24 | ||
| Source: The New York Times and New Mexico Secretary of State | ||||
See also
- List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
- Pivot Counties by state
- Presidential election, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
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