Pivot Counties in New Hampshire
| 2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties |
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Retained • Boomerang Margins of victory Voter turnout Demographics |
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.
Following the 2016 presidential election, New Hampshire had three Pivot Counties.
Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.
After the 2020 presidential election, the state had one Retained Pivot County and two Boomerang Pivot Counties.
List of Pivot Counties
The table below lists the Pivot Counties in New Hampshire. These counties accounted for 30 percent of the total counties in New Hampshire, and 36.2 percent of the state population.
| Analysis of New Hampshire counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election[1] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Winner, 2020 | Margin of Victory, 2020 | Trump Margin of Victory, 2016 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2012 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2008 | |
| Coos County | New Hampshire | Retained | +5.91 | +8.89 | +17.54 | +18.19 | |
| Hillsborough County | New Hampshire | Boomerang | +7.65 | +0.2 | +1.12 | +3.73 | |
| Sullivan County | New Hampshire | Boomerang | +3.61 | +2.58 | +13.27 | +17.93 | |
The map below shows Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties in New Hampshire shaded bright red and blue, respectively.
2020 analysis
Voter turnout
New Hampshire has three Pivot Counties, 30.0% of the state's 10 total counties. Of those three Pivot Counties, the state has one Retained Pivot County and two Boomerang Pivot Counties, responsible for 2.05% and 31.77% of the statewide turnout, respectively.
| Voter turnout in New Hampshire and its Pivot Counties | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Overview | ||||||
| New Hampshire | 806,182 | 1,048,205 | 76.91% | - | ||
| Retained Pivot County | 16,544 | 26,365 | 62.75% | 2.05% | ||
| Boomerang Pivot Counties | 256,103 | 343,520 | 74.55% | 31.77% | ||
| County-specific | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Coos | 16,544 | 26,365 | 62.75% | 2.05% | ||
| Hillsborough | 231,659 | 308,975 | 74.98% | 28.74% | ||
| Sullivan | 24,444 | 34,545 | 70.76% | 3.03% | ||
Demographics
This table displays demographic data, on average, by county compared to nationwide and statewide averages with a focus on Pivot Counties. Use the arrows at the top of the table to view 2016 data and changes from 2016 to 2020. Full demographic data can be found here.
2016 analysis
Voting trends
The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in New Hampshire since 1960.
| Presidential Elections in New Hampshire Pivot Counties since 1960 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate | Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate | Elections matching national result | |||
| Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | |
| Coos County, New Hampshire | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 13 | 86.67% |
| Hillsborough County, New Hampshire | 9 | 60.00% | 6 | 40.00% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Sullivan County, New Hampshire | 9 | 60.00% | 6 | 40.00% | 12 | 80.00% |
| Average | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 12 | 82.22% |
| Median | 9 | 60.00% | 6 | 40.00% | 12 | 80.00% |
Turnout in 2016 and 2020 caucuses
The following table shows the number of voters who participated in the 2016 and 2020 Democratic and Republican presidential primaries in Pivot Counties in New Hampshire and the percentage change in raw voter turnout.[2][3][4]
- Across the three Pivot Counties in New Hampshire, Democratic turnout was up 18.6%. This was slightly more than the Democratic statewide turnout, which went up 18.8%.
- Across the three Pivot Counties in New Hampshire, Republican turnout was down 46.4%. This nearly matched the percentage change in the Republican statewide turnout, which was down 46.3%.
- Two Pivot Counties had increased Democratic turnout: Hillsborough and Sullivan counties. Sanders was the winner in both counties in both election years.
- With an incumbent in the race, all Pivot Counties in New Hampshire saw reduced Republican turnout.
| Turnout in New Hampshire Pivot Counties, 2016-2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot County | ||||||
| Coos County, New Hampshire | 5,839 | 5,405 | -7.4% | 5,904 | 3,555 | -39.8% |
| Hillsborough County, New Hampshire | 69,197 | 84,903 | 22.7% | 84,063 | 44,452 | -47.1% |
| Sullivan County, New Hampshire | 8,647 | 8,926 | 3.2% | 8,385 | 4,749 | -43.4% |
| Pivot Total | 83,683 | 99,234 | 18.6% | 98,352 | 52,756 | -46.4% |
| Statewide Total | 253,062 | 298,537 | 18.0% | 285,917 | 153,654 | -46.3% |
2016 election results
In 2016, New Hampshire had four electoral votes, which was 0.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 1.5 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Presidential primary elections in New Hampshire took place on February 9, 2016. Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 61 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 35.6 percent.
General election
| U.S. presidential election, New Hampshire, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic |  Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine |
46.8% | 348,526 | 4 | |
| Republican | Donald Trump/Mike Pence | 46.5% | 345,790 | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson/Bill Weld | 4.1% | 30,777 | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka | 0.9% | 6,496 | 0 | |
| American Delta | Roque De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg | 0.1% | 678 | 0 | |
| - | Write-in votes | 1.6% | 12,029 | 0 | |
| Total Votes | 744,296 | 4 | |||
| Election results via: New Hampshire Secretary of State | |||||
Note: Write-in votes from New Hampshire can be found here.
Primaries
| New Hampshire Democratic Primary, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Bernie Sanders |
61% | 152,193 | 15 | |
| Hillary Clinton | 38.2% | 95,355 | 9 | |
| Total Write-ins | 0.8% | 2,039 | 0 | |
| Totals | 249,587 | 24 | ||
| Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State | ||||
| New Hampshire Republican Primary, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Donald Trump |
35.6% | 100,735 | 11 | |
| John Kasich | 15.9% | 44,932 | 4 | |
| Ted Cruz | 11.7% | 33,244 | 3 | |
| Jeb Bush | 11.1% | 31,341 | 3 | |
| Marco Rubio | 10.6% | 30,071 | 1 | |
| Chris Christie | 7.4% | 21,089 | 0 | |
| Carly Fiorina | 4.2% | 11,774 | 0 | |
| Ben Carson | 2.3% | 6,527 | 0 | |
| Rand Paul* | 0.7% | 1,930 | 0 | |
| Total Write-ins | 0.5% | 1,398 | 0 | |
| Jim Gilmore | 0% | 134 | 0 | |
| Totals | 283,175 | 22 | ||
| Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State | ||||
*Rand Paul dropped out of the race on February 3, 2016, but his name remained on the ballot in New Hampshire.[5]
See also
- List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
- Pivot Counties by state
- Presidential election, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
- ↑ FEC, "Federal Elections 2016," accessed February 25, 2020
- ↑ New Hampshire Secretary of State, "2020 Presidential Primary Election Results," accessed February 25, 2020
- ↑ New Hampshire Secretary of State, "2016 Presidential Primary Election Results," accessed February 25, 2020
- ↑ Politico, "Rand Paul drops out of White House race," February 3, 2016
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