Pivot Counties in New York

2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties
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2020 Election Analysis Hub

Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.

Following the 2016 presidential election, New York had 18 Pivot Counties.

Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.

After the 2020 presidential election, the state had 14 Retained Pivot Counties and four Boomerang Pivot Counties.

List of Pivot Counties

See also: Election results, 2020: Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election, Presidential election in New York, 2020

The table below lists the Pivot Counties in New York. These counties accounted for 29.03 percent of the total counties in New York, and 19.37 percent of the state population.

Analysis of New York counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election
County	State	Winner, 2020	Margin of Victory, 2020	Trump Margin of Victory, 2016	Obama Margin of Victory, 2012	Obama Margin of Victory, 2008
Broome County	New York	Boomerang	+3.45	+2.01	+5.31	+8.02
Cayuga County	New York	Retained	+9.22	+11.64	+11.4	+8.48
Cortland County	New York	Retained	+1.94	+5.58	+9.11	+9.96
Essex County	New York	Boomerang	+5.04	+1.14	+18.77	+13.32
Franklin County	New York	Retained	+2.15	+5.45	+26.07	+22.23
Madison County	New York	Retained	+10.58	+14.2	+0.89	+0.87
Niagara County	New York	Retained	+9.64	+17.75	+0.84	+1
Orange County	New York	Retained	+0.18	+5.5	+5.65	+4.13
Oswego County	New York	Retained	+20.18	+21.99	+7.93	+2.44
Otsego County	New York	Retained	+5.01	+11.13	+2.72	+5.91
Rensselaer County	New York	Boomerang	+5.63	+1.41	+12.19	+9.34
St. Lawrence County	New York	Retained	+11.68	+8.82	+16.71	+16.33
Saratoga County	New York	Boomerang	+5.4	+3.21	+2.44	+3.4
Seneca County	New York	Retained	+9.05	+11.01	+9.08	+2.6
Suffolk County	New York	Retained	+0.03	+6.84	+3.69	+5.99
Sullivan County	New York	Retained	+9.17	+11.23	+9.02	+9.46
Warren County	New York	Retained	+0.16	+8.47	+2.32	+2.64
Washington County	New York	Retained	+15.55	+18.4	+1.9	+0.81

The map below shows Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties in New York shaded bright red and blue, respectively.

2020 analysis

Voter turnout

See also: Election results, 2020: Voter turnout in Pivot Counties

New York has 18 Pivot Counties, 29.0% of the state's 62 total counties. Of those 18 Pivot Counties, the state has 14 Retained Pivot County and four Boomerang Pivot County, responsible for 16.25% and 3.76% of the statewide turnout, respectively.

Voter turnout in New York and its Pivot Counties
	Votes cast	Voting age population	Turnout	Contribution to statewide turnout
Overview
New York	8,627,307	13,686,695	63.03%	-
Retained Pivot Counties	1,401,575	2,109,375	66.45%	16.25%
Boomerang Pivot Counties	324,366	481,550	67.36%	3.76%

County-specific
	Votes cast	Voting age population	Turnout	Contribution to statewide turnout
Broome	93,031	150,925	61.64%	1.08%
Cayuga	36,476	61,425	59.38%	0.42%
Cortland	21,678	38,375	56.49%	0.25%
Essex	19,271	30,740	62.69%	0.22%
Franklin	19,269	40,010	48.16%	0.22%
Madison	34,038	56,680	60.05%	0.39%
Niagara	104,123	166,090	62.69%	1.21%
Orange	172,196	266,215	64.68%	2.00%
Oswego	54,491	92,845	58.69%	0.63%
Otsego	28,080	49,595	56.62%	0.33%
Rensselaer	79,409	124,245	63.91%	0.92%
St. Lawrence	44,907	84,800	52.96%	0.52%
Saratoga	132,655	175,640	75.53%	1.54%
Seneca	15,632	27,400	57.05%	0.18%
Suffolk	771,751	1,068,940	72.20%	8.95%
Sullivan	34,647	55,830	62.06%	0.40%
Warren	36,149	51,700	69.92%	0.42%
Washington	28,138	49,470	56.88%	0.33%

Demographics

See also: Election results, 2020: Demographics of the 206 Pivot Counties

This table displays demographic data, on average, by county compared to nationwide and statewide averages with a focus on Pivot Counties. Use the arrows at the top of the table to view 2016 data and changes from 2016 to 2020. Full demographic data can be found here.

2016 analysis

HIGHLIGHTS

There were 18 counties in New York that voted for Donald Trump in 2016, and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

19.37 percent of the population of New York resided in these 18 counties.

Since 1960, Pivot Counties in New York have matched the national election result in 77.78% of presidential elections.

Voting trends

The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in New York since 1960.

Presidential Elections in New York Pivot Counties since 1960
County	Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate		Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate		Elections matching national result
	Elections	Percentage of elections	Elections	Percentage of elections	Elections	Percentage of elections
Broome County, New York	7	46.67%	8	53.33%	10	66.67%
Cayuga County, New York	9	60.00%	6	40.00%	12	80.00%
Cortland County, New York	10	66.67%	5	33.33%	13	86.67%
Essex County, New York	11	73.33%	4	26.67%	12	80.00%
Franklin County, New York	7	46.67%	8	53.33%	12	80.00%
Madison County, New York	11	73.33%	4	26.67%	12	80.00%
Niagara County, New York	4	26.67%	11	73.33%	9	60.00%
Orange County, New York	11	73.33%	4	26.67%	12	80.00%
Oswego County, New York	11	73.33%	4	26.67%	12	80.00%
Otsego County, New York	10	66.67%	5	33.33%	13	86.67%
Rensselaer County, New York	8	53.33%	7	46.67%	11	73.33%
Saratoga County, New York	11	73.33%	4	26.67%	12	80.00%
Seneca County, New York	9	60.00%	6	40.00%	12	80.00%
St. Lawrence County, New York	8	53.33%	7	46.67%	11	73.33%
Suffolk County, New York	9	60.00%	6	40.00%	10	66.67%
Sullivan County, New York	8	53.33%	7	46.67%	13	86.67%
Warren County, New York	11	73.33%	4	26.67%	12	80.00%
Washington County, New York	11	73.33%	4	26.67%	12	80.00%
Average	9	61.48%	6	38.52%	12	77.78%
Median	10	63.33%	6	36.67%	12	80.00%

2016 election results

See also: Presidential election in New York, 2016

In 2016, New York had 29 electoral votes, which was 5.3 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 10.7 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Presidential primary elections in New York took place on April 19, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary with 57.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 59.2 percent.

General election

U.S. presidential election, New York, 2016
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine	59%	4,556,124	29
	Republican	Donald Trump/Mike Pence	36.5%	2,819,534	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka	1.4%	107,934	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Bill Weld	2.3%	176,598	0
	-	Write-in votes/Other	0.8%	61,263	0
Total Votes				7,721,453	29
Election results via: Federal Election Commission

Primaries

New York Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Delegates
Hillary Clinton	57.5%	1,133,980	139
Bernie Sanders	41.6%	820,256	108
Blank or void	0.8%	16,664	0
Totals		1,970,900	247
Source: The New York Times and New York State Board of Elections

New York Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Delegates
Donald Trump	59.2%	554,522	89
John Kasich	24.7%	231,166	6
Ted Cruz	14.5%	136,083	0
Blank or void	1.6%	14,756	0
Totals		936,527	95
Source: The New York Times and New York State Board of Elections

See also

• List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
• Pivot Counties by state
• Presidential election, 2016