Pivot Counties in North Dakota
| 2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties |
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Retained • Boomerang Margins of victory Voter turnout Demographics |
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.
Following the 2016 presidential election, North Dakota had four Pivot Counties.
Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.
After the 2020 presidential election, all four were Retained Pivot Counties.
List of Pivot Counties
The table below lists the Pivot Counties in North Dakota. These counties accounted for 7.55 percent of the total counties in North Dakota, and 2.56 percent of the state population.
| Analysis of North Dakota counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election[1] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Winner, 2020 | Margin of Victory, 2020 | Trump Margin of Victory, 2016 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2012 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2008 | |
| Benson County | North Dakota | Retained | +13.87 | +4.33 | +17.01 | +33.53 | |
| Ransom County | North Dakota | Retained | +19.27 | +15.77 | +13.77 | +15.33 | |
| Sargent County | North Dakota | Retained | +25.51 | +19.73 | +9.77 | +17.49 | |
| Steele County | North Dakota | Retained | +23.9 | +17.72 | +1.92 | +20.35 | |
The map below shows Retained Pivot Counties in North Dakota shaded bright red.
2020 analysis
Voter turnout
North Dakota has four Retained Pivot Counties, 7.6% of the state's 53 total counties. Turnout in these counties accounted for 2.09% of the statewide total turnout.
| Voter turnout in North Dakota and its Pivot Counties | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Overview | ||||||
| North Dakota | 361,819 | 562,650 | 64.31% | - | ||
| Retained Pivot Counties | 7,573 | 13,160 | 57.55% | 2.09% | ||
| County-specific | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes cast | Voting age population | Turnout | Contribution to statewide turnout | |||
| Benson | 1,961 | 4,495 | 43.63% | 0.54% | ||
| Ransom | 2,454 | 4,105 | 59.78% | 0.68% | ||
| Sargent | 2,070 | 3,035 | 68.20% | 0.57% | ||
| Steele | 1,088 | 1,525 | 71.34% | 0.30% | ||
Demographics
This table displays demographic data, on average, by county compared to nationwide and statewide averages with a focus on Pivot Counties. Use the arrows at the top of the table to view 2016 data and changes from 2016 to 2020. Full demographic data can be found here.
2016 analysis
Voting trends
The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in North Dakota since 1960.
| Presidential Elections in North Dakota Pivot Counties since 1960 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate | Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate | Elections matching national result | |||
| Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | Elections | Percentage of elections | |
| Benson County, North Dakota | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Ransom County, North Dakota | 8 | 53.33% | 7 | 46.67% | 13 | 86.67% |
| Sargent County, North Dakota | 7 | 46.67% | 8 | 53.33% | 14 | 93.33% |
| Steele County, North Dakota | 6 | 40.00% | 9 | 60.00% | 11 | 73.33% |
| Average | 7 | 45.00% | 8 | 55.00% | 12 | 81.67% |
| Median | 7 | 43.33% | 9 | 56.67% | 12 | 80.00% |
2016 election results
In 2016, North Dakota had three electoral votes, which was 0.5 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 1.1 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Democrats held caucuses in North Dakota on June 7, 2016. Bernie Sanders won with 64.2 percent of the vote. Republicans in North Dakota did not hold a presidential preference poll in 2016. They instead selected their delegates at a state convention in April 2016.
General election
| U.S. presidential election, North Dakota, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine | 27.2% | 93,758 | 0 | |
| Republican |  Donald Trump/Mike Pence |
63% | 216,794 | 3 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson/Bill Weld | 6.2% | 21,434 | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka | 1.1% | 3,780 | 0 | |
| American Delta | Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg | 0.1% | 364 | 0 | |
| Constitution | Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley | 0.5% | 1,833 | 0 | |
| - | Write-in votes | 1.9% | 6,397 | 0 | |
| Total Votes | 344,360 | 3 | |||
| Election results via: North Dakota Secretary of State | |||||
Primaries
| North Dakota Democratic Caucus, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
|
Bernie Sanders |
64.2% | 253 | 13 | |
| Hillary Clinton | 25.6% | 101 | 5 | |
| Other | 10.2% | 40 | 0 | |
| Totals | 394 | 18 | ||
| Source: The New York Times | ||||
Vote totals represent the number of state convention delegates won.
Delegates from North Dakota to the 2016 Republican National Convention were selected by committee at the state Republican convention in April 2016. North Dakota GOP bylaws did not require delegates to indicate which presidential candidate they prefer at the time of their selection. At the national convention, delegates from North Dakota were unbound on all ballots.
See also
- List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
- Pivot Counties by state
- Presidential election, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
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