Pivot Counties in North Carolina

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2020 Election Analysis Hub

Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.

Following the 2016 presidential election, North Carolina had six Pivot Counties.

Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.

After the 2020 presidential election, all six were Retained Pivot Counties.

List of Pivot Counties

See also: Election results, 2020: Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election, Presidential election in North Carolina, 2020

The table below lists the Pivot Counties in North Carolina. These counties accounted for 6 percent of the total counties in North Carolina, and 3.18 percent of the state population.

Analysis of North Carolina counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election
County	State	Winner, 2020	Margin of Victory, 2020	Trump Margin of Victory, 2016	Obama Margin of Victory, 2012	Obama Margin of Victory, 2008
Bladen County	North Carolina	Retained	+13.72	+9.39	+1.97	+2.07
Gates County	North Carolina	Retained	+13.75	+9.07	+4.11	+5.22
Granville County	North Carolina	Retained	+6.59	+2.49	+4.54	+6.58
Martin County	North Carolina	Retained	+4.95	+0.43	+4.65	+4.64
Richmond County	North Carolina	Retained	+14.81	+9.74	+2.95	+1.5
Robeson County	North Carolina	Retained	+18.62	+4.27	+17.41	+13.78

The map below shows Retained Pivot Counties in North Carolina shaded bright red.

2020 analysis

Voter turnout

See also: Election results, 2020: Voter turnout in Pivot Counties

North Carolina has six Retained Pivot Counties, 6.0% of the state's 100 total counties. Turnout in these counties accounted for 2.45% of the statewide total turnout.

Voter turnout in North Carolina and its Pivot Counties
	Votes cast	Voting age population	Turnout	Contribution to statewide turnout
Overview
North Carolina	5,524,802	7,413,170	74.53%	-
Retained Pivot Counties	135,185	226,965	59.56%	2.45%

County-specific
	Votes cast	Voting age population	Turnout	Contribution to statewide turnout
Bladen	17,125	25,520	67.10%	0.31%
Gates	5,971	9,140	65.33%	0.11%
Granville	31,598	45,205	69.90%	0.57%
Martin	12,540	18,005	69.65%	0.23%
Richmond	20,763	33,585	61.82%	0.38%
Robeson	47,188	95,510	49.41%	0.85%

Demographics

See also: Election results, 2020: Demographics of the 206 Pivot Counties

This table displays demographic data, on average, by county compared to nationwide and statewide averages with a focus on Pivot Counties. Use the arrows at the top of the table to view 2016 data and changes from 2016 to 2020. Full demographic data can be found here.

2016 analysis

HIGHLIGHTS

There were six counties in North Carolina that voted for Donald Trump in 2016, and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

3.18 percent of the population of North Carolina resided in these six counties.

Since 1960, Pivot Counties in North Carolina have matched the national election result in 65.56% of presidential elections.

Voting trends

The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in North Carolina since 1960.

Presidential Elections in North Carolina Pivot Counties since 1960
County	Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate		Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate		Elections matching national result
	Elections	Percentage of elections	Elections	Percentage of elections	Elections	Percentage of elections
Bladen County, North Carolina	3	20.00%	11	73.33%	10	66.67%
Gates County, North Carolina	2	13.33%	12	80.00%	9	60.00%
Granville County, North Carolina	4	26.67%	10	66.67%	11	73.33%
Martin County, North Carolina	4	26.67%	10	66.67%	11	73.33%
Richmond County, North Carolina	2	13.33%	12	80.00%	9	60.00%
Robeson County, North Carolina	2	13.33%	13	86.67%	9	60.00%
Average	3	18.89%	11	75.56%	10	65.56%
Median	3	16.67%	12	76.67%	10	63.33%

Noteworthy elections

North Carolina's 9th Congressional District elections, 2018 and 2019

See also: North Carolina's 9th Congressional District special election, 2019

See also: North Carolina's 9th Congressional District election, 2018

North Carolina's 9th Congressional District overlaps with three pivot counties: Bladen, Richmond, and Robeson. Pivot counties are those that Barack Obama (D) won in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election. The 9th District includes all of Richmond and Robeson counties and part of Bladen County. Compared to the 2018 unofficial results in the 9th District U.S. House election, Bladen and Robeson counties favored the same party in the 2019 House special election while Richmond switched from Democratic to Republican.

In the September 10 special election, Dan Bishop (R) won Bladen and Richmond counties, while Dan McCready (D) won Robeson County. In the 2018 general election for North Carolina's 9th District—the results of which were not certified after allegations of absentee ballot fraud—uncertified results showed McCready leading in Richmond and Robeson and Republican candidate Mark Harris leading in Bladen.

Turnout in the 2019 special election was lower than in the 2018 general election. In 2019, 11,064 fewer votes were tallied for McCready than in 2018. On the Republican side, 6,289 fewer votes were tallied for Bishop than for Harris.

The tables below show the two major-party candidates' percentages of the vote in 2018 and 2019 in the three pivot counties, margins of victory in terms of percentage points, and the total number of votes tallied for the two major-party candidates in 2018 and 2019.

Percentage of votes: North Carolina's 9th District 2018 and 2019 elections in pivot counties
Percentage of votes	2018		Margin of victory	2019		Margin of victory
County	McCready (D)	Harris (R)	2018	McCready (D)	Bishop (R)	2019
Bladen	41.0%	57.6%	R+16.6	40.2%	59.3%	R+19.1
Richmond	50.2%	47.7%	D+2.5	47.4%	52.0%	R+4.6
Robeson	56.4%	41.1%	D+15.3	50.5%	49.1%	D+1.4

Notes: Results of the 2018 election were not certified.
Percentages do not equal 100 because votes for third-party candidates are not featured in the table.
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections (2018) (2019)

Number of votes: North Carolina's 9th District 2018 and 2019 elections in pivot counties
Number of votes	Democratic vote		2018-2019 change	Republican vote		2018-2019 change
County	McCready (D) 2018	McCready (D) 2019	D change	Harris (R) 2018	Bishop (R) 2019	R change
Bladen	3,856	2,371	-1,485	5,413	3,496	-1,917
Richmond	7,138	4,309	-2,829	6,786	4,727	-2,059
Robeson	17,419	10,669	-6,750	12,691	10,378	-2,313

Note: Results of the 2018 election were not certified.
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections (2018) (2019)

2016 election results

See also: Presidential election in North Carolina, 2016

In 2016, North Carolina had 15 electoral votes, which was 2.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 5.5 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Presidential primary elections in North Carolina took place on March 15, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary with 54.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 40.2 percent.

General election

U.S. presidential election, North Carolina, 2016
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine	46.2%	2,189,316	0
	Republican	Donald Trump/Mike Pence	49.8%	2,362,631	15
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Bill Weld	2.7%	130,126	0
	-	Write-in votes	1.3%	59,491	0
Total Votes				4,741,564	15
Election results via: North Carolina State Board of Elections

Primaries

North Carolina Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Delegates
Hillary Clinton	54.5%	622,915	60
Bernie Sanders	40.9%	467,018	47
Martin O'Malley	1.1%	12,122	0
Roque De La Fuente	0.3%	3,376	0
Other	3.3%	37,485	0
Totals		1,142,916	107
Source: The New York Times and North Carolina State Board of Elections

North Carolina Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Delegates
Donald Trump	40.2%	462,413	29
Ted Cruz	36.8%	422,621	27
John Kasich	12.7%	145,659	9
Marco Rubio	7.7%	88,907	6
Ben Carson	1%	11,019	1
Jeb Bush	0.3%	3,893	0
Mike Huckabee	0.3%	3,071	0
Rand Paul	0.2%	2,753	0
Chris Christie	0.1%	1,256	0
Carly Fiorina	0.1%	929	0
Rick Santorum	0.1%	663	0
Jim Gilmore	0%	265	0
Other	0.5%	6,081	0
Totals		1,149,530	72
Source: The New York Times and North Carolina Board of Elections

See also

• List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
• Pivot Counties by state
• Presidential election, 2016