Primary election competitiveness in state government, 2023

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Last updated on November 19, 2024
2023 Elections
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Ballotpedia's 2023 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative and state executive elections that took place in 2023.

This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections were using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures.

Ballotpedia has published comprehensive competitiveness data from each election cycle since 2010. In 2023, this includes data from state legislative and state executive filings in odd-numbered years.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • This page contained post-filing deadline information for 613 seats across five states: Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.
  • The percentage of open seats, contested primaries, and incumbents in contested primaries was higher than the average between 2011 and 2021.
  • Open seats: 25.1% of seats were open, meaning no incumbents were running. This was up from 8.9% in 2021 and higher than the average of 13.5% between 2011 and 2021.
  • Primaries: 24.0% of all possible primaries were contested, up from 14.5% in 2021 and higher than the average of 18.9% between 2011 and 2021.
  • Incumbents contested: 26.4% of incumbents running for re-election faced primary challengers, up from 20.0% in 2021 and higher than the average of 21.0% between 2011 and 2021.
  • Candidates per seat: there were 2.0 candidates per seat, down from 2.3 in 2021 and lower than the average of 2.1 between 2011 and 2021.


    • On this page you will find:

    Overview

    The following statistics aggregate primary election competitiveness data across all states with completed filing deadlines unless otherwise noted. Corresponding data from odd-numbered years since 2011 are provided for comparative purposes.

    For state-specific competitiveness data in 2023, click here. Learn more about Ballotpedia's primary competitiveness methodology here.

    The table below shows aggregate primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office from Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.

    2023 aggregate primary competitiveness data
    Office Districts/
    offices     		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries Contested top-two primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
    State executive 35 35 16 122 55 3 10 7 36.4% 7 36.8%
    State legislative 538 578 138 1,099 877 62 66 76 23.3% 115 26.0%
    Total 573 613 154 1,221 932 65 76 83 24.0% 122 26.4%

    2021

    New Jersey, Virginia, and Wisconsin held state primary elections in 2021. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.

    2019

    Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia held state primary elections in 2019. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.

    2017

    New Jersey, Virginia, and Wisconsin held state primary elections in 2017. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.

    2015

    Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia held state primary elections in 2015. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.

    2013

    New Jersey, Virginia, and Wisconsin held state primary elections in 2013. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.

    2011

    Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia held state primary elections in 2011. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.

    Breakdown by office

    The tables below show primary competitiveness statistics overall and broken down by office type. Figures are shown as percentages with overall figures shown first. Click [show] on the bars beneath the table to view statistics by office type.

    Comparison of overall primary competitiveness percentages, 2011-2023
    2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 Total
    Open seats (%) 17.4% 8.0% 15.7% 10.2% 20.8% 8.9% 25.1% 17.4%
    Total primaries (%) 23.6% 9.8% 21.6% 16.1% 28.0% 14.5% 24.0% 21.8%
    Inc. in contested primaries (%) 22.3% 12.1% 24.6% 16.3% 30.6% 20.0% 26.4% 23.5%


    The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics broken down by office type. The figures shown are total numbers. This analysis uses the following definitions:

    • Total candidates: the total number of major party candidates running in primary elections.[1]
    • Total seats: the total number of seats or offices up for election with the possibility of a primary election.
    • Open seats: the total number of seats, out of the total seats figure, where the incumbent did not file to run for re-election or filed to run for re-election but withdrew before the primary filing deadline.
    • Incumbents contested: the total number of incumbents in contested primaries.
    • Democratic/Republican/Top-two primaries: the total number of these types of primaries where at least one candidate could have failed to advance to the general election.
    • Total primaries: a combination of all Democratic, Republican, and top-two primaries where at least one candidate could have failed to advance to the general election.

    State executive


    State legislative


    Breakdown by state

    See also: Ballotpedia's Candidate Filing Analysis Hub, 2023

    Methodology

    This section provides state-specific data on primary competitiveness numbers. Each section contains a state overview as well as state-specific looks at the two categories of elections covered in this analysis: state executive and state legislative.

    For each state, the categories of elections are shown as historical tables with data from previous election cycles where races in that category were up for election. All 2021 numbers reflect races where there was, or could have been, a primary. It does not include numbers for races that use conventions or some other method as the sole form of nomination to the general election ballot. Due to the expansion of Ballotpedia's coverage and changes made to the competitiveness analysis, previous years' numbers may vary. Common reasons include the exclusion of offices that were outside of Ballotpedia's coverage at the time and the inclusion of races that use conventions or some other method as the sole means of nomination.

    If you have any questions about the methodology used in this analysis, please email us.

    Definitions

    Click "Show more" below to view definitions of terms and metrics used in this analysis.

    Show more
    • Districts/offices: the number of districts or offices up for election. Since some state legislative districts and state executive offices are represented by more than one officeholder, this number may be smaller than the number of seats.
    • Seats: the number of seats up for election.
    • Open seats: the number of open seats. This analysis defines a seat as open if the incumbent did not file to run for re-election or filed but withdrew and did not appear on any ballot for the district/office.[2]
    • Candidates: the number of candidates participating in primaries. If the race is a top-two primary, all candidates are counted. In all other primaries, only major-party candidates are counted.[3]
    • Possible primaries: this figure reflects the number of major-party primaries that are possible. In most cases, this figure is twice the number of districts/offices up for election, since every district could have a Democratic and a Republican primary. If top-two primaries are used, there is only one primary per district/office. If a convention is the only method of nomination, it is not counted as a possible primary.[4][5]
    • Contested Democratic/Republican/top-two primaries: these figures show the total number of primaries where at least one candidate will be defeated, meaning there are more candidates in the primary than there are seats. In Louisiana, if a race involves more than one candidate, it is counted as having a contested primary due to the state's unique majority-vote system.
    • % of contested primaries: calculated by dividing the sum of all contested primaries by the number of possible primaries.
    • Incumbents in contested primaries: the number of incumbents who appear on a primary ballot where he or she could be defeated.[6]
    • % of incumbents in contested primaries: calculated by dividing the number of incumbents in contested primaries by the number of incumbents seeking re-election.[7]

    Kentucky

    Kentucky's primary filing deadline was on Jan. 6, 2023. Candidates filed to run for state executive offices.

    The table below shows cumulative primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office in this state. You may need to move the table horizontally using the scrollbar at the bottom of the table depending on your screen size.

    Kentucky primary competitiveness, 2023
    Office Districts/
    offices     		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
    State executive 6 6 4 32 12 2 5 58.3% 2 100.0%
    Totals 6 6 4 32 12 2 5 58.3% 2 100.0%

    State executives

    Kentucky state executive competitiveness, 2011-2023
    Year Districts/
    offices     		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
    2023 6 6 4 32 12 2 5 58.3% 2 100.0%
    2019 6 6 2 30 12 5 4 75.0% 2 50.0%
    2015 6 6 4 25 12 3 4 58.3% 1 50.0%
    2011 6 6 3 23 12 3 4 58.3% 1 33.3%

    Louisiana

    Louisiana's primary filing deadline was on August 10, 2023. Candidates filed to run for state executive and state legislative offices.

    The table below shows cumulative primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office in this state. You may need to move the table horizontally using the scrollbar at the bottom of the table depending on your screen size.

    Louisiana primary competitiveness, 2023
    Office Districts/
    offices     		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested top-two primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
    State executive 15 15 10 57 15 7 46.7% 1 20.0%
    State legislatures 144 144 42 274 144 76 52.8% 39 38.2%
    Totals 159 159 52 331 159 83 52.2% 40 37.4%

    State executives

    Louisiana state executive competitiveness, 2011-2023
    Year Districts/
    offices     		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested top-two primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
    2023 15 15 10 57 15 7 46.7% 1 20.0%
    2019 15 15 3 45 15 14 93.3% 11 91.7%
    2015 7 7 3 30 7 7 100.0% 4 100.0%
    2011 7 7 0 21 7 5 71.4% 5 71.4%

    State legislature

    Louisiana state legislative competitiveness, 2011-2023
    Year Districts/
    offices     		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested top-two primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
    2023 144 144 42 274 144 76 52.8% 39 38.2%
    2019 144 144 60 320 144 92 63.9% 39 46.4%
    2015 144 144 34 266 144 70 48.6% 38 34.5%
    2011 144 144 36 284 144 81 56.3% 50 45.5%

    Mississippi

    Mississippi's primary filing deadline was on February 1, 2023. Candidates filed to run for state executive and state legislative offices.

    The table below shows cumulative primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office in this state. You may need to move the table horizontally using the scrollbar at the bottom of the table depending on your screen size.

    Mississippi primary competitiveness, 2023
    Office Districts/
    offices     		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
    State executive 14 14 2 33 28 1 5 21.4% 4 33.3%
    State legislatures 174 174 24 272 348 19 41 17.2% 42 28.0%
    Totals 188 188 26 305 376 20 46 17.6% 46 28.4%

    State executives

    Mississippi state executive competitiveness, 2011-2023
    Year Districts/
    offices     		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
    2023 14 14 2 33 28 1 5 21.4% 4 33.3%
    2019 14 14 9 53 28 5 10 53.6% 1 20.0%
    2015 11 11 2 32 22 3 7 45.5% 5 55.6%
    2011 11 11 4 37 22 3 7 45.5% 2 28.6%

    State legislature

    Mississippi state legislative competitiveness, 2011-2023
    Year Districts/
    offices     		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
    2023 174 174 24 272 348 19 41 17.2% 42 28.0%
    2019 174 174 25 325 348 31 41 20.7% 47 31.5%
    2015 174 174 23 335 348 37 39 21.8% 52 34.2%
    2011 174 174 27 340 348 33 39 20.7% 34 23.1%

    New Jersey

    New Jersey's primary filing deadline was on March 27, 2023. Candidates filed to run for state legislative offices.

    The table below shows cumulative primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office in this state. You may need to move the table horizontally using the scrollbar at the bottom of the table depending on your screen size.

    New Jersey primary competitiveness, 2023
    Office Districts/
    offices     		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
    State legislatures 80 120 28 260 160 12 9 13.1% 17 18.3%
    Totals 80 120 28 260 160 12 9 13.1% 17 18.3%

    State legislature

    New Jersey state legislative competitiveness, 2011-2023
    Year Districts/
    offices     		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
    2023 80 120 28 260 160 12 9 13.1% 17 18.3%
    2021 80 120 12 176 160 9 3 7.5% 10 12.0%
    2019 40 80 4 178 80 13 3 20.0% 25 32.9%
    2017 80 120 13 272 160 14 11 15.6% 26 24.3%
    2015 40 80 7 171 80 3 2 6.3% 7 9.6%
    2013 80 120 6 268 160 9 11 12.5% 17 14.9%
    2011 80 120 15 269 160 11 14 15.6% 18 17.0%

    Virginia

    Virginia's primary filing deadline was on April 6, 2023. Candidates filed to run for state legislative offices.

    The table below shows cumulative primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office in this state. You may need to move the table horizontally using the scrollbar at the bottom of the table depending on your screen size.

    Virginia primary competitiveness, 2023
    Office Districts/
    offices     		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
    State legislatures 140 140 44 293 225 31 16 20.9% 17 17.3%
    Totals 140 140 44 293 225 31 16 20.9% 17 17.3%

    State legislature

    Virginia state legislative competitiveness, 2011-2023
    Year Districts/
    offices     		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
    2023 140 140 44 293 225 31 16 20.9% 17 17.3%
    2021 100 100 5 222 172 18 7 14.5% 17 17.9%
    2019 140 140 16 266 278 23 12 12.6% 14 11.3%
    2017 100 100 7 197 192 19 7 13.5% 6 6.5%
    2015 140 140 15 220 280 9 9 6.4% 10 8.0%
    2013 100 100 9 158 200 3 9 6.0% 7 7.7%
    2011 140 140 20 213 222 4 12 7.2% 2 1.6%


    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ In top-two primaries, all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, are counted. If a convention is the sole means of nomination, only the candidate(s) advancing beyond the convention are counted.
    2. ↑ If an incumbent withdrew from or did not participate in a primary, but later chose to run for re-election as a minor party or independent candidate, his or her seat would not be counted as open.
    3. ↑ If a convention is the sole means of nomination, only the candidate(s) advancing beyond the convention are counted.
    4. ↑ For example, if there are 50 districts up for election, there would be 100 possible primaries. If Democrats in five districts and Republicans in two districts chose to nominate candidates via a convention, the number of possible primaries would decrease to 93
      ((50 * 2) - 7).
    5. ↑ If conventions are used, but could still result in a primary, that is included as a possible primary even if the convention did not proceed to a primary. For example, in some states a candidate can advance to the general election from a convention outright if he or she receives a certain percentage of the vote. If that percentage is not met, the race may proceed to a primary.
    6. ↑ Incumbents participating in contested nominating conventions are not included in this total. If the incumbent participates in a convention and advances to a contested primary, he or she would be included. This figure include all incumbents whose name appear on a contested primary ballot even if that incumbent passed away or unofficially withdrew before the election.
    7. ↑ Incumbents seeking re-election can typically be calculated by subtracting the number of open seats from the number of total seats.
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