Presidential election in Iowa, 2016

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General election in Iowa
  Date: November 8, 2016
2016 winner: Donald Trump
Electoral votes: Six
2012 winner: Barack Obama
Democratic Caucuses
  Date: February 1, 2016
Winner: Hillary Clinton
Republican Caucuses
  Date: February 1, 2016
Winner: Ted Cruz
Down ballot races in Iowa
  U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Iowa State Senate
Iowa House of Representatives
Iowa judicial elections
Iowa local judicial elections
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See also: Presidential battleground states, 2016 and Hawkeye Battleground

Iowa held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. The state held caucuses for the Republican and Democratic Parties on February 1, 2016. Iowa was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Donald Trump won Iowa in the general election.
  • Iowa had six electoral votes, which was 1.1 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in 2016 and 2.2 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Between 1900 and 2016, Iowa cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.67 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Iowa supported Republican candidates more often than Democratic candidates, 66.67 to 33.33 percent. The state leaned Democratic, however, in presidential elections between 2000 and 2016. In 2016, Iowa was a key battleground state.
  • Iowa's caucuses on February 1, 2016, marked the official beginning of the presidential nominating process for both parties. Hillary Clinton narrowly won the Iowa Democratic caucuses with 49.84 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz won the Iowa Republican caucuses with 27.7 percent of the vote.

    • General election candidates

    See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

    The candidate list below is based on an official list on the Iowa secretary of state website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the official list—not necessarily the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November. Write-in candidates were not included in the list below.

    Presidential candidates on the ballot in Iowa

    ☑ Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)
    ☐ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic)
    ☐ Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley (Constitution)
    ☐ Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green)
    ☐ Dan R. Vacek/Mark G. Elworth Jr. (Legal Marijuana Now)
    ☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)
    ☐ Lynn Sandra Kahn/Jay Stolba (New Independent Party)
    ☐ Gloria Estela La Riva/Dennis J. Banks (Socialism and Liberation)
    ☐ Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg (Nominated by petition)
    ☐ Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson (Nominated by petition)[1]

    Results

    U.S. presidential election, Iowa, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 41.7% 653,669 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump/Mike Pence 51.1% 800,983 6
         Constitution Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley 0.3% 5,335 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 0.7% 11,479 0
         Legal Marijuana Now Dan R. Vacek/Mark G. Elworth Jr. 0.1% 2,246 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 3.8% 59,186 0
         New Independent Lynn Sandra Kahn/Jay Stolba 0.1% 2,247 0
         Socialism and Liberation Gloria Estela La Riva/Dennis J. Banks 0% 323 0
         Nominated by petition Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg 0% 451 0
         Nominated by petition Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson 0.8% 12,366 0
         - Write-in votes 1.1% 17,746 0
    Total Votes 1,566,031 6
    Election results via: Iowa Secretary of State

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, in 34 states.[2] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government for the next four years.

    Historical election trends

    Iowa presidential election results (1900-2024)

    • 11 Democratic wins
    • 21 Republican wins
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
    Winning Party R R R D R R R R D D R R D R R R D R R R R R D D D D R D D R R R
    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of Iowa's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in Iowa, 1900-2016

    Between 1900 and 2016:

    • Iowa participated in 30 presidential elections.
    • Iowa voted for the winning presidential candidate 76.67 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 72.31 percent.[3]
    • Iowa voted Democratic 33.33 percent of the time and Republican 66.67 percent of the time.

    Presidential election voting record in Iowa, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    Election results

    2012

    2008

    Electoral votes

    See also: Electoral College

    The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

    Iowa electors

    In 2016, Iowa had six electoral votes. Iowa's share of electoral votes represented 1.1 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 2.2 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president. 2016 electors in Iowa were chosen by the central committees of state political parties.

    "Faithless electors"

    The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

    Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[5][6]

    Iowa was one of 20 states in 2016 without a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.

    Polling

    Iowa polls (2016)

    Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

    Ballotpedia Battleground Poll

    See also: Ballotpedia's battleground poll, 2016

    Ballotpedia partnered with Evolving Strategies and surveyed voters across seven battleground states (June 10 – 22) regarding their vote preference. We tested six election scenarios. In one set, we matched Hillary Clinton (D) in a series of two-way contests with Donald Trump (R), Ohio Governor John Kasich (R), and House Speaker Paul Ryan (R). In the second set, we matched these same candidates in a series of three-way contests that also included former Governor Gary Johnson. In all seven states, Clinton polled higher than Trump. Comparatively, John Kasich polled ahead of Clinton in five of the seven states, and Paul Ryan polled ahead of Clinton in three states. See the table below for the battleground poll results from Iowa.

    In Iowa, the Libertarian Party nominee, Gary Johnson, saw his highest polling against Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Johnson polled at 16 percent compared to Clinton’s 38 percent and Trump’s 36 percent.

    Ballotpedia's Battleground Polling (Iowa): Head-to-head
    Poll Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Trump (June 10-22, 2016) 45% 41% 15% +/- 4 601
    Hillary Clinton John Kasich Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Kasich (June 10-22, 2016) 37% 46% 17% +/-4 601
    Hillary Clinton Paul Ryan Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Ryan (June 10-22, 2016) 38% 47% 15% +/- 4 601
    Ballotpedia's Battleground Polling (Iowa): Three-way
    Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson (June 10-22, 2016) 38% 36% 16% 9% +/- 4 601
    Hillary Clinton John Kasich Gary Johnson Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Kasich vs. Johnson (June 10-22, 2016) 34% 38% 14% 13% +/- 4 601
    Hillary Clinton Paul Ryan Gary Johnson Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Ryan vs. Johnson (June 10-22, 2016) 35% 42% 13% 11% +/- 4 601

    State campaign staff

    Prior to the November 8, 2016, election, each campaign put in place paid staff, volunteers, and political operatives in each state in efforts to gain votes and influence voter turnout on election day. The following details some of the key staff for each campaign in Iowa.

    Hillary Clinton

    For Hillary Clinton's campaign, state operations nationwide were overseen by Marlon Marshall, the campaign's director of state campaigns and political engagement. The key staff in Iowa consisted of:

    Hillary for America 2016 Logo.png

    Kane Miller, State director: Miller began working on Clinton's campaign as the Polk County, Iowa, field director for the caucuses. He went on to direct the campaign's efforts in the Nebraska and Utah caucuses. Miller previously worked as a field organizer on both of Barack Obama's presidential campaigns.[7]
    Troy Price, Senior state advisor: Price was Clinton's political director during the Iowa caucuses and is the former executive director of the Democratic Party of Iowa. Price previously worked for former Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) and was executive director of One Iowa, the state's biggest LGBT advocacy organization.[8]

    Donald Trump

    For Donald Trump's campaign, state operations nationwide were overseen by Michael Biundo, the campaign's senior political advisor. The key staff in Iowa consisted of:

    Trump-Pence 2016.svg

    Eric Branstad, State director: Branstad joined Trump's campaign in June 2016 after working for America's Renewable Energy, an organization that represents the state's ethanol industry. Branstad is the oldest son of Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R).[9]

    Down ballot races

    See also: Iowa elections, 2016

    Below is a list of down ballot races in Iowa covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

    Iowa Caucuses

    See also: Cruz wins Iowa the old-fashioned way and Iowa Democrats feel the Bern

    Democrats

    In the Iowa Democratic caucus, Hillary Clinton claimed victory over Bernie Sanders with 49.8 percent of the vote, 0.2 percentage points higher than Sanders' 49.6 percent. This was the narrowest margin in caucus history up to this point.[10][11]

    After concerns were raised about the execution of the Democratic caucus, the Iowa Democratic Party agreed to review the results. Nearly a week after the contest, on February 7, 2016, the state party announced revised results after finding “reporting errors” in several precincts. The Sanders campaign had pushed for a broader review. Clinton’s share of the delegates awarded was revised slightly downward, to 49.84 percent, while Sanders' total was bumped up to 49.59 percent. Former Democratic presidential candidate Martin O'Malley also had a small gain, finishing with 0.54 percent.[12]

    According to entrance polls, Sanders won 84 percent of 17-to-29-year-old voters, and 58 percent of voters between the ages of 30 and 44, while Clinton won 14 percent and 37 percent of those voters, respectively. She did better with older voters winning 58 percent of those between 45 and 64 and 69 percent of those 65 and above. Sanders won 35 percent and 26 percent of those voters, respectively.[13]

    Clinton won 45 percent of voters who said they made their decision on who to support on caucus day. Sander won 42 percent of that same group. Clinton won 54 percent of voters who said they made their decision before January, while Sanders won 42 percent of those voters.[13] According to the Democratic data, Clinton won 61 counties and Sanders won 37 counties. That compares with 2008 when Barack Obama won 40 counties, John Edwards won 30 counties and Clinton won 25. Clinton won six of the top 10 counties with the highest percentage of residents with a bachelor’s degree, while Bernie Sanders won four. Clinton won eight of the top 10 counties with the lowest percentage of residents with a bachelor’s degree, where Sanders won only two of those counties. Clinton won nine of the state's 12 counties in metro areas with a population between 250,000 and 1 million, and Sanders won three. Sanders won five of the nine counties with metro area populations of fewer than 250,000 residents, while Clinton won four. Clinton won 77 percent of voters whose priority they said was to win the general election, compared with Sanders' 17 percent, according to entrance polling. But Sanders won voters, more than eight-to-one, who wanted a candidate who was “honest and trustworthy.”

    Entrance polling showed that Sanders won 59 percent of first-time caucus attendees, while Clinton won 35 percent. Clinton won 59 percent of voters who have attended a caucus before, with Sanders taking 35 percent of those voters.

    In contrast to Iowa Republicans, Iowa Democrats have a nearly perfect track record of predicting the eventual party nominee in six contested races, only faltering twice: in 1992, when former Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin won the caucuses, and in 1988, when former Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) won. And when it comes to choosing the general election winner, Iowans have predicted correctly twice: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008. [14]

    Democratic voter turnout didn't rise to the level of 2008, when a record 239,872 voters participated.[15] But Democrats did set the second-highest turnout record in 2016, when 171,517 voters showed up to caucus.[16]

    Republicans

    On the Republican side, Ted Cruz beat out Donald Trump 28 percent to 24 percent. Marco Rubio came in a close third, with 23 percent.[17]

    Entrance polling showed that Rubio won 28 percent of voters who said they made their decision on who to support on caucus day, compared with 22 percent for Cruz and 15 percent for Trump. Rubio also won 31 percent of those who said they made their mind up "in the last few days," where as Cruz won 27 percent and Trump won 13 percent. Rubio and Trump both won 22 percent of independents and Cruz won 19 percent of that vote.[13] Cruz's organization was decisive. His win was a victory for retail politics and a more traditional get-out-the-vote operation, compared to Trump's lighter footprint in the state. Cruz spent months touring the state—managing to visit all of the state's 99 counties[18]—discussing his opposition to abortion, gay marriage, compromise by Republican leaders in Congress and other issues that resonated with the state's evangelical voters.[19]

    Similar to the previous two Iowa GOP caucuses, it was the conservative vote that played a significant role in helping to determine the winner. Cruz won 43 percent of the party’s most conservative voters, followed by Trump with 21 percent, according to entrance polling.[20]

    According to a Ballotpedia analysis of the data, Cruz won 58 counties, Trump won 34 counties and Rubio won five. That compares with 2012 when Rick Santorum won 56 counties, Mitt Romney won 16 counties and Ron Paul carried 10. Of those counties, Cruz carried eight of the top 10 counties with highest percentage of residents with a bachelor’s degree, while Trump won the other two. Cruz also won eight of the top 10 counties with the lowest percentage of residents with a bachelor’s degree, where as Trump won one of those counties.

    With regard to population, Cruz won 10 of the state's 12 counties in metro areas with a population between 250,000 and 1 million, while Trump won one. However, Trump won five of the nine counties with metro area populations of fewer than 250,000 residents, while Cruz won four. Cruz and Trump split the vote in 20 rural counties. Cruz won 10 counties with populations less that 2,500, and Trump won nine.

    Cruz's victory came despite several polls showing Trump leading, including The Des Moines Register poll.[21] Beating expectations gave Cruz momentum heading into the next contest, the New Hampshire primary scheduled for February 9, 2016.

    The Republican winner of the caucuses was chosen as the eventual nominee twice in six contested races between 1980 and 2012: Robert Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000—the only Iowa winner on the Republican side to become president since before Iowa became the first nominating event in 1972.[22][23]

    Iowa Republicans also set a record. Roughly 182,000 Republican Iowa caucus-goers turned out, with nearly all precincts reporting, breaking the record of 122,000 in 2012.[24]

    Rubio also outperformed expectations coming in at third with 23 percent of the vote, closer to the second-place spot than expected. "This is the moment they said would never happen. For months, they told us we had no chance," Rubio said in a speech after the caucuses.[25] Entrance polling showed that Rubio won 44 percent of voters who thought a candidate's most important attribute is the ability to "win on November," while Trump won 24 percent and Cruz won 22 percent. Trump won 66 percent of voters who prized a candidate who "tells it like it is" and 33 percent of voters who want a candidate who "can bring needed change." Cruz won 11 percent and 25 percent of those voters, and Rubio won 4 percent and 17 percent, respectively.

    Results

    2016 results

    Democratic caucus

    Iowa Democratic Caucus, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton 49.84% 700.47 23
    Bernie Sanders 49.59% 696.92 21
    Martin O'Malley 0.54% 7.63 0
    Uncommitted 0.03% 0.46 0
    Totals 1,405.48 44
    Source: Iowa Democratic Party Votes = State Delegate Equivalents


    Republican caucus

    Iowa Republican Caucus, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngTed Cruz 27.7% 51,666 8
    Donald Trump 24.3% 45,427 7
    Marco Rubio 23.1% 43,165 7
    Ben Carson 9.3% 17,395 3
    Rand Paul 4.5% 8,481 1
    Jeb Bush 2.8% 5,238 1
    Carly Fiorina 1.9% 3,485 1
    John Kasich 1.9% 3,474 1
    Mike Huckabee 1.8% 3,345 1
    Chris Christie 1.8% 3,284 0
    Rick Santorum 1% 1,783 0
    Totals 186,743 30
    Source: The Des Moines Register, "Iowa Caucus Results"

    How the caucuses work

    Cast as gatherings of neighbors and the ultimate in grassroots political participation, the Iowa caucuses allow eligible Iowa voters from each party caucused to meet separately at 1,681 precincts across the state's 99 counties to declare their preference for their party's nominee. To be eligible to caucus, state parties required voters to reside in the precinct in which they wished to participate, to be registered to vote in Iowa and to be at least 18 years old on Election Day.[26][27][28]

    Iowa counties map.png

    At both the Republican and Democratic caucuses, advocates for each candidate played a key role by seeking to change the minds of their fellow attendees or sway the undecided.

    The Republican preference poll process is relatively straightforward. Once the caucus is called to order, the caucus chair invites anyone to speak briefly in support of his or her favored candidate. After all speeches have concluded, each eligible caucus voter is given a piece of paper to either write or mark their choice. After everyone has filled out their secret ballot, the votes are counted in the precinct and announced to the room. All the precincts of a county are collected by party leadership and then reported to the Republican Party of Iowa to tabulate the state results. Other business is also decided at the caucus, including planks in the Republican Party of Iowa’s platform, members of the county’s Republican central committee, and delegates to the county convention.[28][29]

    The Democratic caucus is more complicated. After speeches on behalf of candidates, participants physically move into different parts of the room to show which candidate they support. The size of a candidate’s support is counted, and candidates who don't have enough support are deemed non-viable. The viability threshold was 15 percent of the participants in the room, a hurdle that Martin O'Malley could not clear, and he subsequently suspended his campaign.[30] Members of the non-viable groups can try to attract more people to their candidate, disperse and join other candidate groups, or remain uncommitted. This is known as the realignment process. [31] The number of votes each candidate gets determines what percentage of that precinct's delegates will represent that person at the county convention. Realignment makes it important for Democratic campaigns to not only line up supporters of their candidate but also try to identify the second choice of each caucus attendee in case their first choice is not deemed viable. Democrats also take care of other business, including electing delegates to the county convention and local party leadership.[28][29]

    The Iowa caucuses are also traditionally the first serious test of a campaign's organizational efforts and its ability to turn out voters.[32] The more supporters a campaign can get out to caucus, the better chance of success it will have. And in 2016, caucus organization was the difference, with top candidates relatively close in the polls the week before Iowans began the nomination process.[33][34]

    Polls

    Democratic primary

    Democratic Party Democratic Party presidential primary polling (Iowa)
    Poll Hillary Clinton Bernie SandersMartin O'MalleyUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Quinnipiac University
    January 25-31, 2016    		46%49%3%2%+/-3.2919
    Emerson College
    January 29-31, 2016    		50.6%42.6%4.1%2.7%+/-5.6300
    Des Moines Register/Bloomberg
    January 26-29, 2016    		45%42%3%9%+/-4602
    NBC News/WSJ/Marist
    January 28, 2016    		48%45%3%4%+/-4.7426
    Gravis Marketing
    January 26-27, 2016    		53%42%5%0%+/-3810
    Public Policy Polling
    January 26-27, 2016    		48%40%7%5%+/-3.4851
    Monmouth University
    January 23-26, 2016    		47%42%6%6%+/-4.4504
    Quinnipiac University
    January 18-24, 2016    		45%49%4%2%+/-4606
    American Research Group
    January 21-24, 2016    		45%48%3%4%+/-5400
    Iowa State/WHO-TV
    January 1-22, 2016    		47%45%1%7%+/-N/A518
    Fox News
    January 18-21, 2016    		48%42%3%7%+/-4.5423
    CBS News/YouGov
    January 18-21, 2016    		46%47%5%2%+/-8.9490
    CNN/ORC
    January 15-20, 2016    		43%51%4%2%+/-6280
    KBUR/Monmouth College
    January 18-19, 2016    		47.7%39.3%7.4%5.6%+/-4.1570
    Loras College
    January 13-18, 2016    		59%30%7%5%+/-4.4500
    Gravis Marketing
    January 11-12, 2016    		57%36%7%0%+/-5461
    Des Moines Register/Bloomberg
    January 7-10, 2016    		42%40%4%14%+/-4.4500
    Public Policy Polling
    January 8-10, 2016    		46%40%8%5%+/-4.1580
    Quinnipiac University
    January 5-10, 2016    		44%49%4%3%+/-4.4492
    American Research Group
    January 6-10, 2016    		44%47%3%5%+/-5400
    CBS News/Wall Street Journal/Martist
    January 2-7, 2016    		48%45%5%3%+/-4.8422
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


    Note: In October 2015, Joe Biden announced that he would not run for president in 2016. During the same month, Jim Webb, Lincoln Chafee and Lawrence Lessig ended their campaigns for the presidential election in 2016. The Democratic polls below reflect polling during the time when their campaigns were still active, and it was widely expected that Biden would run in 2016.

    Republican primary

    Republican Party Republican Party presidential primary polling (Iowa)
    Poll Donald Trump Ted CruzMarco RubioBen CarsonJeb BushRand PaulChris ChristieMike HuckabeeJohn KasichCarly FiorinaUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    NBC News/WSJ/Marist
    January 28, 2016    		32%25%18%8%4%2%2%2%2%2%3%+/-4.6450
    Gravis Marketing
    January 26-27, 2016    		31%27%13%7%6%2%3%2%4%3%2%+/-4724
    Public Policy Polling
    January 26-27, 2016    		31%23%14%9%4%4%2%4%2%3%2%+/-3.5780
    Monmouth University
    January 23-26, 2016    		30%23%16%10%4%3%2%3%3%2%3%+/-4.4500
    Quinnipiac University
    January 18-24, 2016    		31%29%13%7%4%5%3%2%1%1%2%+/-3.8651
    American Research Group
    January 21-24, 2016    		33%26%11%7%3%4%4%2%3%1%5%+/-5400
    Iowa State/WHO-TV
    January 1-22, 2016    		19%26%12%13%4%7%1%4%1%1%11%+/-N/A283
    Fox News
    January 18-21, 2016    		34%23%12%7%4%6%4%2%2%1%3%+/-5378
    CBS News/YouGov
    January 18-21, 2016    		39%34%13%5%1%3%2%0%1%1%0%+/-8.9492
    CNN/ORC
    January 15-20, 2016    		37%26%14%6%3%2%1%3%1%1%4%+/-6266
    KBUR/Monmouth College
    January 18-19, 2016    		25%27%9%11%7%3%4%4%3%3%4%+/-3.7687
    Loras College
    January 13-18, 2016    		26%25%13%8%6%3%3%3%4%2%7%+/-4.4500
    Des Moines Register/Bloomberg
    January 7-10, 2016    		22%25%12%11%4%5%3%3%2%2%11%+/-4.4500
    Gravis Marketing
    January 11-12, 2016    		34%28%5%9%4%3%5%2%4%1%5%+/-5422
    Public Policy Polling
    January 8-10, 2016    		28%26%13%8%6%3%3%3%3%3%2%+/-4.3530
    Quinnipiac University
    January 5-10, 2016    		31%29%15%7%3%2%4%3%2%1%5%+/-4602
    American Research Group
    January 6-10, 2016    		29%25%10%8%3%4%6%2%3%1%6%+/-5400
    CBS News/Wall Street Journal/Martist
    January 2-7, 2016    		24%28%13%11%4%5%3%2%2%3%4%+/-4.6456
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Delegates

    Delegate selection

    See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules

    Democratic Party

    Democratic Party Logo.png

    Iowa had 51 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Of this total, 44 were pledged delegates. National party rules stipulated how Democratic delegates in all states were allocated. Pledged delegates were allocated to a candidate in proportion to the votes he or she received in a state's primary or caucus. A candidate was eligible to receive a share of the state's pledged delegates if he or she won at least 15 percent of the votes cast in the primary or caucus. There were three types of pledged Democratic delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates, and party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). Congressional district delegates were allocated proportionally based on the primary or caucus results in a given district. At-large and PLEO delegates were allocated proportionally based on statewide caucus results.[35][36]

    Seven party leaders and elected officials served as unpledged delegates. These delegates were not required to adhere to the results of a state's primary or caucus.[35][37]

    Iowa superdelegates

    See also: Superdelegates from Iowa, 2016 and Superdelegates and the 2016 Democratic National Convention

    Republican Party

    Logo-GOP.png

    Iowa had 30 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, 12 were district-level delegates (three for each of the state's four congressional districts). District-level delegates were allocated on a proportional basis; each candidate who won a percentage of the statewide vote in Iowa's caucuses received a share of the state's district-level delegates.[38][39]

    Of the remaining 18 delegates, 15 served at large. At-large delegates were allocated proportionally based on the statewide vote; any candidate who won a percentage of the statewide vote was entitled to receive a share of Iowa's at-large delegates. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention.[38][39]

    Iowa delegates

    See also: Republican delegates from Iowa, 2016 and Republican delegates by state, 2016

    Note: Ballotpedia was not able to find a list of district-level delegates from Iowa. If you have information on Iowa's delegation to the 2016 Republican National Convention, please email editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Straw poll

    See also: Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls

    Iowa Republicans first began conducting a straw-poll—an informal and unofficial opinion poll—for president in 1972. The Iowa Republican Party, however, voted to end the Iowa Straw Poll on June 12, 2015. The poll was the recipient of scrutiny due to its inability to actually predict the Republican nominee.[40] Major contenders for the Republican nomination had slowly been announcing they would not participate in the poll over the weeks leading up to news of the cancellation. Former Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) won the straw poll in 2012.

    Presidential election by state

    For more information on the presidential contests in your state, please click on your state below:

    http://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_STATE,_2016


    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ On October 6, 2016, Evan McMullin announced Mindy Finn as his official running mate. As of October 10, 2016, Ballotpedia was not aware of any changes to this state's official list of certified presidential candidates.
    2. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    3. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2016. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
    4. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
    5. ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
    6. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
    7. ↑ The Des Moines Register, "Clinton announces Iowa general election leadership," May 18, 2016
    8. ↑ The Des Moines Register, "Team Clinton hires Iowa Democratic operative Troy Price," April 8, 2015
    9. ↑ The Des Moines Register, "Eric Branstad to lead Trump's presidential campaign in Iowa," June 15, 2016
    10. ↑ The Des Moines Register, "Clinton officially nets Iowa Caucuses win over Sanders," February 2, 2016
    11. ↑ USA Today, "Clinton camp claims narrow victory over Sanders," February 2, 2016
    12. ↑ The Washington Post, "Clinton’s margin of victory in Iowa narrows after state Democratic party revises results," February 7, 2016
    13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 13.2 The New York Times, "Iowa Entrance Polls," February 1, 2016
    14. ↑ ABC News, "Examining the Iowa Caucus Track Record on Predicting Presidents," January 29, 2016
    15. ↑ PBS Newshour, "For such a key race, Iowa’s voter turnout remains surprisingly low," January 27, 2016
    16. ↑ NPR, "Coin-Toss Fact-Check: No, Coin Flips Did Not Win Iowa For Hillary Clinton," February 2, 2016
    17. ↑ CNN Politics, "Iowa caucuses: Ted Cruz wins; Clinton, Sanders tied," February 2, 2016
    18. ↑ U.S. News & World Report, "Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is spending the final hours before Iowa's caucuses traveling hundreds of miles to visit tiny towns so he can complete his pledge to visit all 99 counties" January 29, 2016
    19. ↑ CNN Politics, "Iowa caucuses: Ted Cruz wins; Clinton, Sanders tied," February 2, 2016
    20. ↑ The Wall Street Journal, "Ted Cruz’s Iowa Win Powered by Evangelicals, Conservatives," February 2, 2016
    21. ↑ The Des Moines Register, "Donald Trump reclaims lead in latest Iowa Poll," January 30, 2016
    22. ↑ TIME, "How the Iowa Caucuses Became a Big Deal," February 1, 2016
    23. ↑ ABC News, "Examining the Iowa Caucus Track Record on Predicting Presidents," January 29, 2016
    24. ↑ Fox News, "Record turnout recorded at Iowa Republican caucuses," February 1, 2016
    25. ↑ The Washington Post, "Iowa caucus: Cruz tops Trump, while Clinton and Sanders are in virtual tie," February 2, 2016
    26. ↑ Iowa Democratic Party, "2016 Iowa Caucuses," accessed January 27, 2016
    27. ↑ Republican Party of Iowa, "Caucus History," accessed January 27, 2016
    28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 28.2 Iowa Farm Bureau, "Learn how to caucus," accessed January 27, 2016
    29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 IAVotes.com, "Iowa Caucus Toolkit," accessed January 27, 2016
    30. ↑ Baltimore Sun, "Martin O'Malley suspends presidential campaign after Iowa caucuses," February 1, 2016
    31. ↑ The Huffington Post, "16 Things You Probably Didn't Know About The Iowa Caucuses," January 4, 2016
    32. ↑ Mason City Globe Gazette, "Campaign organizations ready for Iowa’s Feb. 1 caucus test," January 24, 2016
    33. ↑ U.S. News & World Report, "In Iowa, Sanders’ Surge Tests the Clinton Machine," January 21, 2016
    34. ↑ Texas Tribune, "Cruz Sees a Heightened Urgency to Iowa Win," January 26, 2016
    35. ↑ 35.0 35.1 Democratic National Committee, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," updated February 19, 2016
    36. ↑ The Green Papers, "2016 Democratic Convention," accessed May 7, 2021
    37. ↑ Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "Unpledged Delegates -- By State," May 27, 2016
    38. ↑ 38.0 38.1 Republican National Committee, "2016 Presidential Nominating Process," accessed October 6, 2015
    39. ↑ 39.0 39.1 CNN.com, "Republican National Convention roll call vote," accessed July 20, 2016
    40. ↑ CNN, "Ding, dong, the Iowa Straw Poll is now dead," June 12, 2015
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