Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton rules, but Sanders also rising
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
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January 27, 2016
Hillary Clinton is the clear favorite of Democratic Insiders to capture their party’s 2016 presidential nomination, but U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (Vt.) has raised his standing among these Democratic elites since they were last surveyed on this topic two months ago.
In a Ballotpedia survey of 100 Democratic strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives, these Democratic Insiders, on average, said that the former first lady and secretary of state had a 76 percent chance of capturing the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. Sanders was given a 22 percent chance, and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley was given a scant 2 percent chance.
One hundred Democratic Insiders were asked, “On a scale of 0 to 100, rate the chances of each candidate to win the Democratic presidential nomination.” A sliding scale was used for each candidate, and the “scores” of all three combined could not exceed 100. The survey was conducted January 22-25. In a similar survey conducted last November, Clinton was given an 83 percent chance of winning, Sanders was given a 14 percent chance, and O’Malley was given a 5 percent chance. (The sum of these percentages did not add up to 100 because of rounding.) |
It’s no surprise that Clinton is at the top of the pack: Democratic Insiders tend to reflect “establishment” views and values. And the Democratic establishment sees Clinton as a candidate with plenty of money and broad support within the party to prevail in a national campaign and sustain early setbacks in Iowa and New Hampshire if those occur.
“All the fundamentals, even for a protracted primary fight, favor HRC,” said one Democratic Insider. “What's Bernie's path after Iowa and New Hampshire?” asked another Democratic Insider. “Yes the passion is there, but I think Team Clinton is built to roll starting in South Carolina.” Another Democratic Insider maintained, “Sanders could win lily white states like Iowa and New Hampshire, but after that he heads into the states with large blocs of black and brown primary voters who are with Hillary.” Added a fourth Democrat, “It’s more of a race than anyone expected, but she’s still got the staying power to get the nomination.”
Indeed, even though Clinton remains a solid odds-on favorite to capture her party’s nod, a closer analysis of the numbers shows that Sanders has been making some gains among Democratic Insiders. Back in November, only 7 percent of Democratic Insiders surveyed gave the Vermont senator a one-in-three chance (or better) of winning the nomination. In this latest survey, 21 percent of the Democratic Insiders gave Sanders at least a one-in-three chance. Only one Democratic Insider actually gave Sanders a better chance than Clinton of winning the nomination. Another five placed Sanders’ odds within at least 10 points of Clinton.
“Clinton should win, but it will be a bumpy ride,” predicted one Democratic Insider. “The Clinton campaign has a weak positive message out of sync with 2016 political reality and its attacks on Sanders are either weak or ridiculous. Sanders is running a very good campaign, but he is not anybody’s dream candidate.” Another noted, “Bernie will do well in Iowa and New Hampshire: We'll see if he can continue the momentum after that.” And a third surmised, “Hillary could blow it and Bernie stands ready—if unlikely.” This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley was not viewed as much of a factor in the Democratic contest. “I could see O’Malley having some small shot if Clinton is knocked out, and her delegates look for somewhere to go other than Sanders,” allowed one Democratic Insider.
A handful of Democratic Insiders thought that Clinton would be more vulnerable if there were other candidates in the field. Notwithstanding the fact that many filing deadlines for Democratic presidential primaries have passed, one Democratic Insider volunteered, “If [Massachusetts Sen.] Elizabeth Warren woke up tomorrow and decided to run, I think she'd be the nominee.” Another said, “Still hoping for [Vice President Joe] Biden to come in late and create a brokered convention.” A third noted, “There is no one else in the race so I guess it is hers for the asking.”
But it’s probably more likely that Clinton’s fate—one way or the other—is going to be shaped by what happens in Iowa when rank-and-file Democrats caucus in less than a week. “If she wins Iowa, it is over,” declared one Democratic Insider. “If she loses Iowa, panic will set in.” Another confidently stated, “Hillary will win Iowa and then it is over.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of The Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted January 22-25.
See also
- Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton is the pick of Democratic Insiders
- Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton remains choice of Democratic Insiders
- Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2016
- Bernie Sanders presidential campaign, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
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