Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Oct. 10 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Non-photo ID required
- Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
2018 →
← 2016
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Ohio's 12th Congressional District special |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: February 7, 2018 |
Primary: May 8, 2018 General: August 7, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Vacant |
How to vote |
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Voting in Ohio |
Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Toss-up Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican |
Ballotpedia analysis |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
See also |
Ohio elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
State Sen. Troy Balderson (R) defeated Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor (D) by less than one percentage point in the special election for Ohio's 12th Congressional District on August 7, 2018.[1] The race was too close to call for nearly three weeks as more than 8,400 absentee and provisional ballots were counted.[2] Balderson faced O'Connor again in the regularly scheduled general election on November 6, 2018.
Although a Republican had represented Ohio's 12th Congressional District since 1983, Democrats looked to the timing of the special election and increased turnout in the Columbus suburbs to potentially flip the seat.[3]
O’Connor called for a change in congressional leadership from both House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and pledged to work with Republicans and President Donald Trump to fix infrastructure.[4]
Balderson highlighted his support for Trump administration policies, including the construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and fighting what he considers to be unfair trade practices.[5] He also backed an Obamacare replacement that would require health insurance to cover pre-existing conditions.[4][6]
Both candidates supported a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers and review of the North American Free Trade Agreement but diverged on gun policy. O’Connor supported a red flag law that would allow guns to be taken away from licensed carriers deemed a threat, which Balderson opposed.[4]
With a battleground seat in play, both national parties were engaged in the race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the district to its list of midterm targets, while the National Republican Congressional Committee spent $1 million on advertising for Balderson.[7][8][9] President Donald Trump—who won the district by 11 points in 2016—appeared at a rally with Balderson the weekend before the election.
The race was compared to Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District special election, which saw Democrat Conor Lamb defeat Republican Rick Saccone in a district that backed Trump by double digits. O'Connor focused on many of the same policy areas as Lamb, including federal assistance programs. Balderson had been described as a stronger candidate than Saccone.[10][11]
Green Party candidate Joe Manchik also made a second bid for the seat. He came in third place in 2016, winning 4 percent of the vote against Tiberi and Ed Albertson (D).[12]
Balderson, Manchik, and O'Connor ran in both the August special election and November general election.
This page covered the special election in this race:
- Click here to read more about the
Democratic Party primary election.
- Click here to read more about the
Republican Party primary election.
Ohio's 12th Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes Delaware, Licking, and Morrow counties with the addition of portions of Franklin, Marion, Muskingum, and Richland counties.[13]
Candidates and election results
General election
Special general election for U.S. House Ohio District 12
Troy Balderson defeated Danny O'Connor and Joe Manchik in the special general election for U.S. House Ohio District 12 on August 7, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Troy Balderson (R) | 50.1 | 104,328 | |
Danny O'Connor (D) | 49.3 | 102,648 | ||
Joe Manchik (G) | 0.6 | 1,165 |
Total votes: 208,141 | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Jonathan Veley (Independent)
Democratic primary election
Special Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12
The following candidates ran in the special Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12 on May 8, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Danny O'Connor | 40.9 | 18,422 | |
Zach Scott | 16.8 | 7,544 | ||
John Russell | 16.7 | 7,515 | ||
Jackie Patton | 13.6 | 6,111 | ||
Ed Albertson | 8.1 | 3,638 | ||
Doug Wilson | 3.9 | 1,771 |
Total votes: 45,001 | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Crystal Lett (D)
Republican primary election
Special Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12
The following candidates ran in the special Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12 on May 8, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Troy Balderson | 29.2 | 20,101 | |
Melanie Leneghan | 28.3 | 19,437 | ||
Tim Kane | 17.1 | 11,743 | ||
Kevin Bacon | 14.3 | 9,819 | ||
Carol O'Brien | 6.4 | 4,406 | ||
Jon Halverstadt | 1.5 | 998 | ||
Lawrence Cohen | 1.2 | 807 | ||
Mick Shoemaker Jr. | 1.1 | 750 | ||
Pat Manley | 1.1 | 729 |
Total votes: 68,790 | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Gary Chiero (R)
- Brandon Grisez (R)
Green primary election
Special Green primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12
Joe Manchik advanced from the special Green primary for U.S. House Ohio District 12 on May 8, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Joe Manchik | 100.0 | 197 |
Total votes: 197 | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Candidate profiles
Danny O'Connor (D)
O'Connor served in the Jesuit Volunteer Corps as a legal advocate before attending law school and working in the Franklin County Prosecutor’s Office. After starting a law practice, he was elected Franklin County recorder in 2016.[14]
"This special election is a unique chance to flip this seat, and I couldn’t sit out this fight. As a small business owner, the son of a breast cancer survivor, and a reformer who has worked to fix what’s broken with our government, I know what’s at stake in this election," O'Connor said in a statement.[15]
O'Connor identified expanding healthcare coverage, protecting Medicare and Social Security benefits, and job creation as policy priorities.[14]
Troy Balderson (R)
Balderson entered the race as a second-term state senator from southeastern Ohio. He previously represented District 94 in the Ohio House of Representatives from 2009 to 2011. Prior to serving in elected office, Balderson owned and operated a family farm in Adamsville and worked at an automotive dealership.[16]
He said in a statement announcing his candidacy, "During my time in the Ohio legislature, I have been a champion for a smaller, more efficient government. I have witnessed firsthand the devastation an out-of-touch Washington, DC can have on Ohio families, particularly those in the energy industry. I intend to fight for our interests, our jobs, and for a government that stays out of the way.”[17]
His campaign website listed building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, lowering taxes, and supporting gun ownership as policy priorities.[18]
Joe Manchik (G)
Originally from Hell, Michigan, Manchik graduated from Ohio Institute of Technology in 1975 with a degree in electronics engineering technology. At the time of the election, he was the owner of Manchik Engineering & Co. His platform included advocating the elimination of tax subsidies for oil companies and the provision of those subsidies to "individuals and small businesses that invest in American manufactured solar and wind power technology."
His website stated that he became interested in running for the 12th Congressional District seat when Tiberi voted to fast-track the passage of the Tran-Pacific Partnership agreement, which Manchik opposed.[19]
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Danny O'Connor | Democratic Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Troy Balderson | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Joe Manchik | Green Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," . This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Campaign strategies and tactics
Relationship with Donald Trump and Mike Pence
- President Donald Trump appeared at a rally with Balderson in central Ohio on August 4, 2018, where he praised Balderson and described O'Connor as linked to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).[20] Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) said that Balderson had not invited the president to the rally.[21]
- Vice President Mike Pence hosted a fundraiser for Balderson on June 15, 2018.
Relationship with Nancy Pelosi
- O'Connor called for a change in leadership on both sides of the aisle throughout the campaign. When asked by MSNBC's Chris Matthews in July 2018 if he would support House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for the speakership if he were casting the deciding vote, O'Connor said, "I would support whoever the Democratic Party put forward." Following the interview, O'Connor released a statement, saying that "no DC-style gotcha politics will change my resolve. I said on TV that we needed new leadership in Congress and I wouldn’t vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker. I said it seven times, and I’ll say it again—I'm not going to vote for her.” His campaign added that he did not believe the Democratic caucus would put Pelosi forward in such a situation.[22]
General election ads
Danny O'Connor
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Troy Balderson
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Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||||
Emerson Polling August 2-4, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 46% | 0% | 7% | +/-5.0 | 431 | ||||||||||||
Monmouth University July 26-31, 2018 | N/A | 43% | 44% | 2% | 11% | +/-4.3 | 512 | ||||||||||||
JMC Analytics and Polling June 13-16, 2018 | N/A | 35% | 46% | 1% | 18% | +/-4.4 | 500 | ||||||||||||
GPA Strategies June 9-12, 2018 | O'Connor | 43% | 48% | 5% | 4% | +/-4.0 | 600 | ||||||||||||
Monmouth University June 7-10, 2018 | N/A | 39% | 48% | 0% | 13% | +/-5.1 | 371 | ||||||||||||
Public Policy Polling May 10-11, 2018 | End Citizens United | 43% | 45% | 0% | 11% | +/-3.9 | 625 | ||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 41.67% | 46.17% | 1.33% | 10.67% | +/-4.45 | 506.5 | |||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Danny O'Connor (D) | Troy Balderson (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | ||||||||||||||
GPA Strategies July 10-13, 2018 | 41% | 48% | 11% | +/-4.0 | 600 | ||||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
Satellite spending
- Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF)
- In July, CLF released an ad highlighting various statements O'Connor made about whether he would support Pelosi for speaker of the House, as part of a $2 million ad buy.[23]
- CLF spent $165,000 on an ad buy for Balderson airing from June 8 to June 12. It committed $1 million to ad buys for the August special election.[24][25]
- The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released an ad in July stating that Balderson's support for a corporate tax cut could affect Medicare and Social Security. The ad buy was for $238,000.[26]
- The National Republican Congressional Committee spent $500,000 on ad buys in July in the Columbus market, district-wide cable, and Zanesville TV.[27]
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Ohio's 12th Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||
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Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt Republican | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Toss-up | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. |
Special elections to the 115th U.S. Congress
In the 17 special elections called to fill vacancies in the 115th Congress in 2017 and 2018, nine Republicans and eight Democrats won. Four elections resulted in a partisan flip:
- Doug Jones (D), U.S. Senate in Alabama;
- Conor Lamb (D), Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District;
- Mary Gay Scanlon (D), Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District; and
- Susan Wild (D), Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District.
District history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Patrick Tiberi (R) defeated Ed Albertson (D) and Joe Manchik (Green) in the general election. All three candidates ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[31]
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
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Republican | 66.6% | 251,266 | ||
Democratic | Ed Albertson | 29.8% | 112,638 | |
Green | Joe Manchik | 3.6% | 13,474 | |
N/A | Write-in | 0% | 156 | |
Total Votes | 377,534 | |||
Source: Ohio Secretary of State |
2014
The 12th Congressional District of Ohio held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Patrick Tiberi (R) defeated challengers David Tibbs (D) and Bob Hart (G) in the general election.
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
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Republican | 68.1% | 150,573 | ||
Democratic | David Tibbs | 27.8% | 61,360 | |
Green | Bob Hart | 4.1% | 9,148 | |
Total Votes | 221,081 | |||
Source: Ohio Secretary of State |
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Ohio heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in Ohio.
- Republicans held 11 of 16 U.S. House seats in Ohio.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Republicans held six out of six elected state executive positions.
- The governor of Ohio was Republican John Kasich.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Ohio General Assembly. They had a 23-9 majority in the state Senate and a 66-32 majority in the state House.
Trifecta status
- Ohio was under Republican trifecta control since the governor was a Republican and both chambers of the Ohio General Assembly were under Republican control.
2018 elections
- See also: Ohio elections, 2018
Ohio held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One U.S. Senate seat
- 16 U.S. House seats
- Governor and lieutenant governor
- Five other state executive offices
- 17 out of 33 state Senate seats
- 99 state House seats
- Two of seven state Supreme Court seats
- Municipal elections in Cuyahoga, Fairfield, Franklin, Hamilton, and Lucas counties, as well as the city of Toledo
Demographics
Demographic data for Ohio | ||
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Ohio | U.S. | |
Total population: | 11,605,090 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 40,861 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 82.4% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 12.2% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 1.9% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 0.2% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 2.5% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 3.4% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 89.1% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 26.1% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $49,429 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 19.6% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Ohio. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
As of July 2017, Ohio had a population of 11,700,000 people, with its three largest cities being Columbus (pop. est. 860,000), Cleveland (pop. est. 390,000), and Cincinnati (pop. est. 300,000).[32][33]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Ohio from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Ohio Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Ohio every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), Ohio 2000-2016 | |||||
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Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | 52.1% | 43.5% | 8.6% | ||
2012 | 50.7% | 47.7% | 3.0% | ||
2008 | 51.5% | 46.9% | 4.6% | ||
2004 | 50.8% | 48.7% | 2.1% | ||
2000 | 50.0% | 46.5% | 3.5% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Ohio from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), Ohio 2000-2016 | |||||
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Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | 58.0% | 37.2% | 20.8% | ||
2012 | 50.7% | 44.7% | 6.0% | ||
2010 | 56.8% | 39.4% | 17.4% | ||
2006 | 56.2% | 43.8% | 12.4% | ||
2004 | 63.9% | 36.1% | 27.8% | ||
2000 | 59.9% | 35.9% | 24.0% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Ohio.
Election results (Governor), Ohio 2000-2016 | |||||
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Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2014 | 63.6% | 33.0% | 30.6% | ||
2010 | 49.0% | 47.0% | 2.0% | ||
2006 | 60.5% | 36.6% | 23.9% | ||
2002 | 57.8% | 38.3% | 19.5% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Ohio in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Ohio Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas • Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
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Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Senate | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
House | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
- Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election (May 8, 2018 Democratic primary)
- Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)
- Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)
- United States House of Representatives
- United States congressional delegations from Ohio
- Ohio's 12th Congressional District election, 2018
- Ohio's 12th Congressional District
- Patrick Tiberi
Footnotes
- ↑ Ohio Secretary of State, "Election Results," accessed August 7, 2018
- ↑ Wall Street Journal, "Republican Troy Balderson Declared Winner in Tight Ohio Special Election," August 24, 2018
- ↑ Roll Call, "Rating Change: Special Election in Ohio’s 12th Likely to Get Closer," January 23, 2018
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 The Columbus Dispatch, "Endorsement: For 12th District: Danny O’Connor favored for open seat," July 8, 2018
- ↑ Balderson for Congress, "Issues," accessed August 6, 2018
- ↑ Balderson for Congress, "Issues," accessed July 11, 2018
- ↑ Newark Advocate, "Pat Tiberi to resign from Congress for Ohio Business Roundtable post," October 19, 2017
- ↑ Roll Call, "DCCC Adds 11 GOP Targets, including Paul Ryan," November 9, 2017
- ↑ Politico, "Hawley’s first ad spotlights SCOTUS vacancy," July 9, 2018
- ↑ CNBC, "A 31-year-old Ohio Democrat hopes to flip a House seat that has been Republican for decades," August 6, 2018
- ↑ [https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/trump-puts-himself-line-ohio-special-election-last-major-test-n897541 NBC News, "Trump puts himself on the line in Ohio special election, last major test before midterms," August 4, 2018
- ↑ Manchik for Congress, "Home," accessed July 19, 2018
- ↑ Ohio Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 9, 2012
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 Danny O'Connor for Congress, "Meet Danny," accessed June 14, 2018
- ↑ Facebook, "Danny O'Connor for Congress," February 5, 2018
- ↑ Balderson for Congress, "Meet Troy," accessed May 1, 2018
- ↑ The Delaware Gazette, "Russell, Balderson announce candidacy for 12th District race," December 7, 2017
- ↑ Balderson for Congress, "Issues," accessed May 1, 2018
- ↑ Manchik for Congress, "My motivation to run for Congress," accessed July1, 2018
- ↑ CNN, "Trump makes last-minute pitch to prevent defeat in crucial Ohio special election," August 4, 2018
- ↑ Atlanta Journal Constitution, "Kasich: Balderson did not invite Trump to Ohio," August 5, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Priorities USA’s big takeaways," July 26, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Priorities USA’s big takeaways," July 26, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "CLF starts spending in OH-12 special," June 7, 2018
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/26," June 26, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Minority of leadership PAC spending goes to contributions," July 20, 2018
- ↑ Columbus Dispatch, "GOP drops $250,000 more in TV ads in 12th race," July 23, 2018
- ↑ Daily Kos, "2008, 2012, & 2016 Presidential Election Results by District," accessed July 11, 2018
- ↑ 29.0 29.1 Both general election candidates were Democrats.
- ↑ Lamb won by a margin of 0.4 percentage points.
- ↑ Ohio Secretary of State, "Ohio 2016 March Primary Candidate List," accessed March 11, 2016
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts - Ohio," accessed April 4, 2018
- ↑ Ohio Demographics, "Ohio Cities by Population," accessed April 4, 2018