2016 presidential Insider surveys
2016 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN INSIDER POLLS AND ANALYSIS
As part of its 2016 presidential election coverage, Ballotpedia surveyed a pool of at least 120 Democratic and Republican Party Insiders for their views on the candidates, the debates, and issues impacting the parties. Insiders included party strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists, and allied interest group operatives.
Select the Democratic or Republican candidate tab below and then follow the links to see how Insiders rated the candidates' debate performances and chances of becoming their party's nominee.
DEMOCRATIC candidates
Nominating Index (D)
Methodology (D)
Ballotpedia's Presidential Nominating Index highlights the candidate that party Insiders think was most likely to capture the party's presidential nomination.
Ballotpedia asked Democratic Insiders to rate, on a scale of 0 to 100, the chance of each candidate winning the Democratic presidential nomination. Each candidate's average rating was calculated and represented as a percentage. For details and an example, see Ballotpedia's second Democratic Presidential Nominating Index of the 2016 election season.
The first Democratic Presidential Nominating Index survey used a different methodology. Ballotpedia asked party Insiders to rank the top five contenders for their party's 2016 presidential nomination, proceeding to assign points to each contender. A first-place vote was worth 5 points, a second-place vote was worth 4 points, and so on. The first Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index was determined by the percentage of points that each contender received compared to the maximum possible points a contender could have received, and the results were charted on a scale of 0 to 1. For details and an example, see Ballotpedia's first Democratic Presidential Nominating Index of the 2016 election season.
The methodology was changed to more adequately capture any movement between the three remaining Democratic candidates and their chances of becoming the party's nominee.
Survey: January 28, 2016
Ballotpedia surveyed 100 Democratic Insiders:
- On a scale of 0 to 100, rate the chances of each candidate to win the Democratic presidential nomination.
Analysis: Clinton rules, but Sanders also rising
Survey: November 20, 2015
Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index
This survey of 97 Democratic Insiders was conducted November 14-18, 2015.
Analysis: Democratic Insiders pick Clinton
Survey: September 10, 2015
Ballotpedia conducted its first 2016 presidential nominating index survey of Democratic Insiders right after Labor Day, the traditional start of the campaign season.
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First-place vote breakdown  |
Second-place vote breakdown  |
This survey of 99 Democratic Insiders was conducted September 4-9, 2015.
The methodology used in this survey is different from the methodology used in the nominating index surveys conducted from November 2015 forward.
Analysis: Insiders overwhelmingly choose Clinton
Changes over time: Likely Democratic Party nominee?
- Ballotpedia surveyed 97 Democratic Insiders for the November 20 poll and 100 Democratic Insiders for the January 27 poll.
Post-debate polls (D)
March 9, 2016—Univision
Miami, Florida
- Ballotpedia surveyed 52 Democratic Insiders after the March 9 Democratic debate.
- Ballotpedia surveyed 52 Democratic Insiders after the March 9 Democratic debate.
February 11, 2016—PBS
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Ballotpedia surveyed 76 Democratic Insiders after the February 11 Democratic debate. More than 60 percent of the Democratic Insiders surveyed thought Clinton was the winner. Among the 49 Republican Insiders who responded to this survey, a solid plurality thought Sanders had won.
Complete debate analysis
February 4, 2016—MSNBC
Durham, New Hampshire
- Ballotpedia surveyed 63 Democratic Insiders after the February 4 Democratic debate.
- Ballotpedia surveyed 63 Democratic Insiders after the February 4 Democratic debate.
About half of the 41 Republican Insiders surveyed thought Sanders won this debate.
Complete debate analysis
January 17, 2016—NBC News
Charleston, South Carolina
- Ballotpedia surveyed 73 Democratic Insiders after the January 17 Democratic debate.
- Ballotpedia surveyed 73 Democratic Insiders after the January 17 Democratic debate.
Only 25 Republican Insiders responded to Ballotpedia's poll asking who the "biggest winner" was of this debate. The sample size is too small for a reliable comparison, but this group of Republican Insiders overwhelmingly -- 88 percent -- declared Sanders the winner.
Complete debate analysis
October 13, 2015—CNN/Facebook
Las Vegas, Nevada
- Note: Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee suspended their campaigns in October 2015.
- Ballotpedia received responses from 70 Democratic Insiders and 50 Republican Insiders after the October 13 debate.
- Note: Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee suspended their campaigns in October 2015.
Democratic primary debate schedule
Debate statistics and analysis
Analysis of the Democratic debates, including topics, participation levels and behavior, speaking time, audience engagement and most commonly used words:
- March 9, 2016—Univision
- March 6, 2016—CNN
- February 11, 2016—PBS
- February 4, 2016—MSNBC
- January 17, 2016—NBC News
- December 19, 2015—ABC/WMUR
- November 14, 2015—CBS/Twitter
- October 13, 2015—CNN/Facebook
Insider polls (D)
How long could the presidential nomination fights last?
February 19, 2016
On the eve of the Nevada Democratic caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary, Ballotpedia asked 98 Democratic Insiders:
Nomination fight survey details
Best candidate for the party?
January 28, 2016
Ballotpedia asked 100 Democratic Insiders:
- On balance, who do you think would be the better general election candidate for your party? Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?
Should Biden run?
September 10, 2015
Would you like to see Joe Biden run for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination?
Insider analysis (D)
Toughest challenger for Hillary Clinton in a general election debate
After the December 15, 2015, Republican debate, Ballotpedia asked 43 Democratic Insiders:
- Based on what you've observed from the GOP debates so far, which candidate do you think would pose the toughest challenge to Hillary Clinton in a general election debate—should she be the Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Insiders' survey responses and detailed analysis:
- December 15, 2015
- Note: Both Lindsey Graham and George Pataki suspended their campaigns in late December 2015.
- Note: Both Lindsey Graham and George Pataki suspended their campaigns in late December 2015.
- December 15 debate analysis
After the October 28, 2015, Republican debate, Ballotpedia asked 50 Democratic Insiders:
- Based on what you've observed from the GOP debates so far, which candidate do you think would pose the toughest challenge to Hillary Clinton in a general election debate—should she be the Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Insiders' survey responses and detailed analysis: '
- October 28, 2015
- Note: Bobby Jindal suspended his campaign on November 17, 2015.
- Note: Bobby Jindal suspended his campaign on November 17, 2015.
- October 28 debate analysis
Changes in opinion over time: Clinton's toughest debate challenger?
Ballotpedia asked Democratic Insiders:
- Based on what you've observed from the GOP debates so far, which candidate do you think would pose the toughest challenge to Hillary Clinton in a general election debate—should she be the Democratic nominee?
- Note: George Pataki suspended his campaign on December 29, 2015.
- The October 28, 2015, survey is based on responses from 50 Democratic Insiders; the December 15, 2015, survey is based on responses from 43 Democratic Insiders.
- Note: George Pataki suspended his campaign on December 29, 2015.
Doubts about a Biden candidacy
In September 2015, Democratic Insiders were closely divided on whether Joe Biden should run for the 2016 Democratic nomination. (survey results)
Analysis:
- Insiders lean against another Biden run
- Democratic Insiders share Biden's doubts
- Biden's decision not to run surprises few Insiders
REPUBLICAN candidates
Nominating Index (R)
Methodology (R)
Ballotpedia's Presidential Nominating Index highlights the candidate that party Insiders think is most likely to capture the party's presidential nomination. Ballotpedia asks Republican Insiders to rank the top five contenders for their party's 2016 presidential nomination, proceeding to assign points to each contender. A first-place vote is worth 5 points, a second-place vote is worth 4 points, and so on. The Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index is determined by the percentage of points that each contender receives compared to the maximum possible points a contender could receive, and the results are charted on a scale of 0 to 1. For details and an example, see Ballotpedia's first Republican Presidential Nominating Index of the 2016 election season.
Survey: January 28, 2016 (R)
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First-place vote breakdown  |
Second-place vote breakdown  |
Analysis: GOP elites tilt to Trump
Survey: November 19, 2015
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First-place vote breakdown  |
Second-place vote breakdown  |
- Note: Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki have suspended their presidential campaigns.
- This survey of 124 Republican Insiders was conducted November 14-18, 2015.
- Note: Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki have suspended their presidential campaigns.
Analysis: Republican Insiders turn to Rubio
Survey: September 14, 2015
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First-place vote breakdown  |
Second-place vote breakdown  |
- Note: Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki have suspended their presidential campaigns.
- This survey of 128 Republican Insiders was conducted September 4-9, 2015.
- Note: Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki have suspended their presidential campaigns.
Analysis: Republican Insiders choose Bush
Changes over time: Likely Republican Party nominee?
- Note: Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki have suspended their presidential campaigns.
- The September 14, 2015, survey is based on responses from 128 Republican Insiders; the November 19, 2015, survey is based on responses from 124 Republican Insiders.
- The September 14, 2015, survey is based on responses from 128 Republican Insiders; the November 19, 2015, survey is based on responses from 124 Republican Insiders.
Post-debate polls (R)
March 10, 2016—CNN
Miami, Florida
- This poll was based on responses from 64 Republican Insiders.
- This poll was based on responses from 64 Republican Insiders.
Complete March 10 debate analysis
March 3, 2016—Fox News
Detroit, Michigan
- The polls above are based on responses from 72 Republican Insiders.
- The polls above are based on responses from 72 Republican Insiders.
Complete March 3 debate analysis
February 25, 2016—CNN
Houston, Texas
- The polls above are based on responses from 80 Republican Insiders.
- The polls above are based on responses from 80 Republican Insiders.
Complete February 25 debate analysis
February 13, 2016—CBS News
Greenville, South Carolina
- The polls above are based on responses from 89 Republican Insiders.
- Ballotpedia surveyed 51 Democratic Insiders after the February 13 debate.
- Ballotpedia surveyed 51 Democratic Insiders after the February 13 debate.
Complete February 13 debate analysis
January 28, 2016—Fox News
Ballotpedia did not conduct an Insiders poll following this debate, and instead conducted a Republican Presidential Nominating Index survey days before the debate.
Debate statistics and commentary
January 14, 2016—Fox Business News
North Charleston, South Carolina
- The polls above are based on responses from 70 Republican Insiders.
- The above poll is based on responses from 75 Republican Insiders.
- The above poll is based on responses from 75 Republican Insiders.
Only 29 Democratic Insiders responded to Ballotpedia's poll asking who the "biggest winner" was of this debate. The sample size is too small for a reliable comparison, but this group of Democratic Insiders overwhelmingly -- 66 percent -- judged Trump to be the winner. A plurality, 41 percent, still believes that Rubio is the GOP candidate who would pose the biggest threat to the Democratic nominee. Trump was the runner-up on this question.
Complete January 14 debate analysis
December 15, 2015—CNN
Las Vegas, Nevada
- Ballotpedia surveyed 90 Republican Insiders and 43 Democratic Insiders after the December 15 debate.
- Ballotpedia surveyed 90 Republican Insiders and 43 Democratic Insiders after the December 15 debate.
Complete December 15 debate analysis
November 10, 2015—Fox/WSJ
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
- Ballotpedia surveyed 73 Republican Insiders and 49 Democratic Insiders after the November 10 debate.
- Ballotpedia surveyed 73 Republican Insiders and 49 Democratic Insiders after the November 10 debate.
Complete November 10 debate analysis
October 28, 2015—CNBC
Boulder, Colorado
- Note: Scott Walker suspended his campaign on September 21, 2015.
- Ballotpedia surveyed 84 Republican Insiders and 50 Democratic Insiders after the October 28 debate.
- Ballotpedia surveyed 84 Republican Insiders and 50 Democratic Insiders after the October 28 debate.
Complete October 28 debate analysis
September 16, 2015—CNN
Simi Valley, California
Who was the biggest winner? - Republican Responses
Who was the biggest winner? - Democratic Responses
Who was the biggest loser? - Republican Responses
- Ballotpedia surveyed 95 Republican Insiders and 50 Democratic Insiders after the September 16 debate.
- Ballotpedia surveyed 95 Republican Insiders and 50 Democratic Insiders after the September 16 debate.
Complete September 16 debate analysis
August 6, 2015—Fox News
Cleveland, Ohio
Who was the biggest winner? - Republican Responses
Who was the biggest loser? - Republican Responses
Who helped or hurt themselves in the debate? - Republican Responses
Who was the biggest winner? - Democrat Responses
Who was the biggest loser? - Democrat Responses
- Ballotpedia surveyed 106 Republican Insiders and 44 Democratic Insiders after the August 6 debate.
- Ballotpedia surveyed 106 Republican Insiders and 44 Democratic Insiders after the August 6 debate.
Complete August 6 debate analysis
Republican primary debate schedule
Debate performance over time
According to Republican Insiders
Biggest winners
- Note: Ben Carson did not participate in the March 3 debate and ended his campaign on March 4. Jeb Bush's last debate was February 13; he suspended his campaign on February 20. Rand Paul did not participate in the January 14 debate. Carly Fiorina did not participate in the August 6, January 14 and February 13 debates. Chris Christie did not participate in the November 10 debate; he ended his campaign on February 10. Mike Huckabee participated in the first three debates. Scott Walker participated in the first two debates.
- Ballotpedia did not conduct an Insiders poll following the January 28, 2016, debate, and instead conducted a Republican Presidential Nominating Index survey days before the debate.
- Note: Ben Carson did not participate in the March 3 debate and ended his campaign on March 4. Jeb Bush's last debate was February 13; he suspended his campaign on February 20. Rand Paul did not participate in the January 14 debate. Carly Fiorina did not participate in the August 6, January 14 and February 13 debates. Chris Christie did not participate in the November 10 debate; he ended his campaign on February 10. Mike Huckabee participated in the first three debates. Scott Walker participated in the first two debates.
Biggest losers
- Note: Rand Paul did not participate in the January 14 debate. Carly Fiorina did not participate in the August 6 and January 14 debates. Chris Christie did not participate in the November 10 debate. Mike Huckabee participated in the first three debates. Scott Walker participated in the first two debates. Ballotpedia did not conduct an Insiders poll following the January 28, 2016, debate, and instead conducted a Republican Presidential Nominating Index survey days before the debate.
- Note: Rand Paul did not participate in the January 14 debate. Carly Fiorina did not participate in the August 6 and January 14 debates. Chris Christie did not participate in the November 10 debate. Mike Huckabee participated in the first three debates. Scott Walker participated in the first two debates. Ballotpedia did not conduct an Insiders poll following the January 28, 2016, debate, and instead conducted a Republican Presidential Nominating Index survey days before the debate.
According to Democratic Insiders
Biggest winners (D)
- Note: Rand Paul did not participate in the February 13 debate. Carly Fiorina did not participate in the August 6 and February 13 debates. Chris Christie did not participate in the November 10 and February 13 debates. Mike Huckabee participated in the first three debates. Scott Walker participated in the first two debates. Ballotpedia did not conduct an Insiders poll following the January 28, 2016, debate, and instead conducted a Republican Presidential Nominating Index survey days before the debate.
- January 14, 2016: Only 29 Democratic Insiders responded to Ballotpedia's poll asking who the "biggest winner" was of this debate. The sample size is too small for comparison with previous debate polls, but this group of Democratic Insiders overwhelmingly -- 66 percent -- judged Trump to be the winner.
- Note: Rand Paul did not participate in the February 13 debate. Carly Fiorina did not participate in the August 6 and February 13 debates. Chris Christie did not participate in the November 10 and February 13 debates. Mike Huckabee participated in the first three debates. Scott Walker participated in the first two debates. Ballotpedia did not conduct an Insiders poll following the January 28, 2016, debate, and instead conducted a Republican Presidential Nominating Index survey days before the debate.
Biggest losers (D)
- Note: BP did not survey Democratic Insiders about the "biggest losers" of the September 16 and January 14 debates.
- Note: Carly Fiorina did not participate in the August 6 debate. Chris Christie did not participate in the November 10 debate. Mike Huckabee participated in the first three debates. Scott Walker participated in the first two debates. Ballotpedia did not conduct an Insiders poll following the January 28, 2016, debate, and instead conducted a Republican Presidential Nominating Index survey days before the debate.
- Note: Carly Fiorina did not participate in the August 6 debate. Chris Christie did not participate in the November 10 debate. Mike Huckabee participated in the first three debates. Scott Walker participated in the first two debates. Ballotpedia did not conduct an Insiders poll following the January 28, 2016, debate, and instead conducted a Republican Presidential Nominating Index survey days before the debate.
See also
Insider polls (R)
February 19, 2016
How long could the presidential nomination fights last?
On the eve of the Nevada Democratic caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary, Ballotpedia asked 110 Republican Insiders:
Nomination fight survey details
January 28, 2016
Republican Insiders are bearish on Trump and Cruz
More on how Republican Insiders consider both Trump and Cruz problematic for the party
November 23, 2015
Republican Insiders increasingly believe Trump's candidacy is hurting the party
Read about Republican Insiders' growing doubts about Trump
September 14, 2015
Trump stirs anxiety among Republican Insiders
More on how Republican Insiders worry that Trump's candidacy could damage the GOP
August 6, 2015
Which candidate would you like to have seen in the prime time debate? - Republican Responses
- Ballotpedia surveyed 106 Republican Insiders for this poll.
- Ballotpedia surveyed 106 Republican Insiders for this poll.
Scroll to Part III: "We want Carly" for details
Insider analysis (R)
Donald Trump and the GOP
Ballotpedia asked Republican Insiders:
- On balance, is Trump's presidential candidacy helping the Republican Party, hurting the Republican Party, both or neither?
- Republican Insiders' survey responses and detailed analysis:
Changes in opinion over time
- The September 14, 2015, survey is based on responses from 125 Republican Insiders; the November 23, 2015, survey is based on responses from 125 Republican Insiders.
Best candidate for the party?
On balance, who do you think would be the better general election candidate for your party, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?
Still calculating the D responses, but basically, about three-quarters of the Ds said Hillary would be better....
Biggest threat to Hillary Clinton in a general election debate
After the December 15, 2015, Republican debate, Ballotpedia asked 43 Democratic Insiders:
- Based on what you've observed from the GOP debates so far, which candidate do you think would pose the toughest challenge to Hillary Clinton in a general election debate—should she be the Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Insiders' survey responses and detailed analysis:
- December 15, 2015
- Note: Lindsey Graham and George Pataki suspended their campaigns in late December 2015.
- Note: Lindsey Graham and George Pataki suspended their campaigns in late December 2015.
- December 15 debate analysis
After the October 28, 2015, Republican debate, Ballotpedia asked 50 Democratic Insiders:
- Based on what you've observed from the GOP debates so far, which candidate do you think would pose the toughest challenge to Hillary Clinton in a general election debate—should she be the Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Insiders' survey responses and detailed analysis:
- October 28, 2015
- Note: Bobby Jindal suspended his campaign on November 17, 2015.
- Note: Bobby Jindal suspended his campaign on November 17, 2015.
- October 28 debate analysis
Changes in opinion over time: Clinton's toughest debate challenger?
Ballotpedia asked Democratic Insiders:
- Based on what you've observed from the GOP debates so far, which candidate do you think would pose the toughest challenge to Hillary Clinton in a general election debate—should she be the Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Insiders' survey responses over time:
- Note: George Pataki suspended his campaign on December 29, 2015.
- The October 28, 2015, survey is based on responses from 50 Democratic Insiders, and the December 15, 2015, survey is based on responses from 43 Democratic Insiders.
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