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Michigan State Senate elections, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: N/A
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: No
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Photo ID requested
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
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2022 →
← 2014
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| 2018 Michigan Senate elections | |
|---|---|
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| General | November 6, 2018 |
| Primary | August 7, 2018 |
| Past election results |
| 2014・2010・2006・2002 |
| 2018 elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose a chamber below: | |
Republicans maintained their majority in the 2018 elections for the Michigan State Senate despite losing their supermajority, winning 22 seats to Democrats' 16. All 38 Senate seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans held 27 seats to Democrats' 10, with one vacancy.
Ballotpedia identified 15 of the races as battlegrounds, all of which were under Republican control. Of those seats, Republicans won 10 to Democrats' five.
Heading into the election, Michigan had been under a Republican trifecta since 2011 after Republicans flipped the governor's office and the state House in the 2010 elections. The state Senate was already controlled by Republicans prior to the 2010 elections.
State senators in Michigan serve four-year terms, so winning candidates in this election served through 2022. Prior to the election, legislators elected in 2018 would have played a role in the state's redistricting process after the 2020 census. They will not, however, as voters passed Michigan Proposal 2 in the same election, which transferred the power to draw the state's congressional and legislative districts from the state legislature to an independent redistricting commission.
The Michigan State Senate was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country. The Michigan State Senate was one of 22 state legislative battleground chambers. Read more below.
Michigan state senators serve four-year terms, with all seats up for election every four years.
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Post-election analysis
- See also: State legislative elections, 2018
The Republican Party maintained control of both chambers of the Michigan State Legislature in the 2018 election, but the Michigan State Senate lost its Republican supermajority status after it no longer held the minimum 26 seats necessary. Both chambers of the Michigan State Legislature were identified as battleground chambers. In the state Senate, all 38 seats were up for election. The Republican Michigan State Senate majority was reduced from 27-10 to 22-16. One seat was vacant before the election. One Democratic incumbent was defeated in the primary and three Republican incumbents were defeated in the general election.
The Michigan House of Representatives held elections for all 110 seats. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives was reduced from 63-46 to 58-52. One Democratic incumbent and one Republican incumbent were defeated in the primary. One Republican incumbent was defeated in the general election.
National background
On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.
- Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.
Want more information?
- Incumbents defeated in 2018's state legislative elections
- 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
- 2018 election analysis: Number of state legislators by party
- 2018 election analysis: State legislative supermajorities
Districts
- See also: Michigan state legislative districts
Use the interactive map below to find your district.
Candidates
General election candidates
Write-in candidates
- Yolanda James, District 2
- Eugene Sinta, District 12
- Timothy Prantle, District 33
Primary candidates
Margins of victory
A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 Michigan State Senate races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.
The table below presents the following figures for each party:
- Elections won
- Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
- Elections won without opposition
- Average margin of victory[1]
| Michigan State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Elections won | Elections won by less than 10% | Unopposed elections | Average margin of victory[1] |
| Total | ||||
The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).
Seats flipped
The below map displays each seat in the Michigan State Senate which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.
| State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Michigan State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | 2018 winner | Direction of flip |
| Michigan State Senate District 12 | R to D | ||
| Michigan State Senate District 13 | R to D | ||
| Michigan State Senate District 20 | R to D | ||
| Michigan State Senate District 29 | R to D | ||
| Michigan State Senate District 7 | R to D | ||
Incumbents retiring
Twenty-seven incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018.[2] Those incumbents were:
2018 battleground chamber
Ballotpedia identified the Michigan State Senate as one of 22 battleground chambers in 2018. These were chambers that we anticipated to be, overall, more competitive than other chambers and had the potential to see significant shifts in party control.
The chamber was selected because it met the following conditions:
- Term-limited members: Twenty-six of the chamber's 38 members faced term limits, seven Democrats and 19 Republicans. Based on presidential election results from 2012 and 2016, 11 seats held by term-limited Republicans were vulnerable. See the battleground races here.
Battleground races
Ballotpedia identified 15 battleground races in the Michigan State Senate 2018 elections, all in Republican-held seats. Based on analysis of these districts' electoral histories, these races had the potential to be more competitive than other races and could possibly have led to shifts in a chamber's partisan balance.
To determine state legislative battleground races in 2018, Ballotpedia looked for races that fit one or more of the four factors listed below:
- If the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in the most recent election prior to 2018
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections and the incumbent’s margin of victory in the previous election was 10 percentage points or less
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections and the incumbent did not file to run for re-election
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections by 20 points or more
Other factors could also cause a race to be classified as a battleground. For example, Ballotpedia may have considered an election to be a battleground race if an outside group or a national or state party announced that they were targeting a specific seat in order to flip it. We may have also determined a race to be a battleground if it received an unusual amount of media attention. Two additional factors were open seats and districts impacted by redistricting.
Because of the unusually high number of open seats, we list all Michigan Senate races where the 2016 presidential margin of victory was less than 10 percentage points and seats where the 2012 presidential margin of victory was less than 5 percentage points.
In the table below, a bolded name indicates the winner of an election.
| 2018 Michigan Senate Races to Watch | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | 2016 presidential result | 2012 presidential result | Incumbent running? | ||
| District 7 | Dayna Polehanki | Laura Cox | D+0.1 | D+1.8 | No |
| District 10 | Henry Yanez | Michael MacDonald | R+16.1 | R+2.1 | No |
| District 12 | Rosemary Bayer | Michael McCready | R+0.5 | R+0.5 | No |
| District 13 | Mallory McMorrow | Marty Knollenberg (i) | D+6.0 | R+0.8 | Yes |
| District 14 | Renee Watson | Ruth Johnson | R+16.8 | R+3.8 | No |
| District 15 | Julia Pulver | Jim Runestad | R+4.1 | R+5.8 | No |
| District 17 | Bill LaVoy | Dale Zorn (i) | R+21.7 | D+0.1 | Yes |
| District 20 | Sean McCann | Margaret O'Brien (i) | D+12.8 | D+13.3 | Yes |
| District 24 | Kelly Rossman-McKinney | Tom Barrett | R+11.0 | R+0.2 | No |
| District 29 | Winnie Brinks | Chris Afendoulis | D+15.1 | D+6.4 | No |
| District 31 | Cynthia Luczak | Kevin Daley | R+27.2 | R+3.9 | No |
| District 32 | Phil Phelps | Ken Horn (i) | R+6.2 | D+8.1 | Yes |
| District 33 | Mark Bignell | Rick Outman | R+23.2 | R+3.0 | No |
| District 34 | Poppy Sias-Hernandez | Jon Bumstead | R+9.8 | D+7.9 | No |
| District 38 | Scott Dianda | Ed McBroom | R+17.0 | R+1.9 | No |
Battleground races map
Michigan political history
Party control
2018
In the 2018 elections, the Republican majority in the Michigan State Senate was reduced from 27-10 to 22-16.
| Michigan State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 6, 2018 | After November 7, 2018 | |
| Democratic Party | 10 | 16 | |
| Republican Party | 27 | 22 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 38 | 38 | |
2014
In the 2014 elections, Republicans maintained their majority in the Michigan State Senate.
| Michigan State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 3, 2014 | After November 4, 2014 | |
| Democratic Party | 12 | 11 | |
| Republican Party | 26 | 27 | |
| Total | 38 | 38 | |
Trifectas
A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Republicans in Michigan held a state government trifecta for 13 years between 1992 and 2017.
Michigan Party Control: 1992-2025
Two years of Democratic trifectas • Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D |
| House | D | S | S | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | R |
Impact of term limits
The Michigan State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Michigan voters approved the Michigan Term Limits Act in 1992. That initiative said that Michigan senators are subject to term limits of no more than two four-year terms, or a total of eight years. The first year that the term limits enacted in 1992 impacted the ability of incumbents to run for office was in 2002.
All 38 seats in the Michigan State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, 26 senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Democratic: (7)
- Coleman Young II
- Bert Johnson[3]
- Morris Hood
- Hoon-Yung Hopgood
- Steven Bieda
- Vincent Gregory
- Rebekah Warren
Republicans (19):
Of the 87 state legislative chambers that held elections in 2018, 24 of them—12 senate chambers and 12 house chambers—included incumbents who were unable to run for re-election due to term limits.[4] In the 24 chambers affected by term limits in 2018, 1,463 seats were up for election.[5] The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate are impacted by term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country.
A total of 271 state legislators—96 state senators and 175 state representatives—were ineligible to run in the 2018 elections because of term limits. This represented 4 percent of the 6,066 total seats up for election in November 2018.[6][7] Republicans had twice as many state legislators term-limited in 2018 than Democrats. A total of 86 Democrats were term-limited, while 177 Republicans were term-limited.
Political context of the 2018 elections
2017 tax incentive legislation
In 2017, the Republican-controlled Michigan Legislature passed a Good Jobs legislation package that offered a variety of tax-based incentives to businesses that relocated or expanded operations in Michigan. The incentives varied based on the number of jobs a company brought to the state and the wages it paid its employees.[8] The legislation drew support from Democratic and Republican lawmakers and opposition from House Republican leadership and conservative groups around the state.[9]
- On July 12, 2017, the Michigan House passed the bills 71-35, with 40 Republicans and 31 Democrats voting in favor of the bills. As of July 2017, Republicans had a 63-45 majority in the chamber. The Senate passed the bills in March 32-5, with five Republican senators voting against them.[10] As of July 2017, Republicans had a 27-11 majority in the Senate. Gov. Rick Snyder (R) voiced support for the legislation, saying, "We are now enacting forward-thinking policies that make us more competitive for new jobs and industries in a fiscally responsible fashion."[11] The bills were sent to Gov. Snyder on July 14, 2017. He signed the legislation on July 26, 2017.[12]
- Supporters of the bills—including some Democrats and some Republicans in both chambers and business groups in the state—said that the bills would be key to bringing businesses to Michigan and creating new jobs. Opponents—such as House Speaker Tom Leonard (R) and conservative groups like Americans for Prosperity Michigan and the Michigan Freedom Fund—argued that the legislation would allow the government to pick winners and losers and amount to, what a spokesperson from Americans for Prosperity Michigan called, sweetheart tax deals.[13]
Redistricting in Michigan
- See also: Redistricting in Michigan
Because state senators in Michigan serve four-year terms, winning candidates in the 2018 election served through 2022 and played a role in Michigan's redistricting process—the drawing of boundary lines for congressional and state legislative districts. Prior to 2020-2022, redistricting last took place in Michigan from 2010 to 2012.
State process
In Michigan, a non-politician commission is responsible for drawing both congressional and state legislative district plans. The commission comprises 13 members, including four Democrats, four Republicans, and five unaffiliated voters or members of minor parties. In order for a map to be enacted, at least seven members must vote for it, including at least two Democrats, two Republicans, and two members not affiliated with either major party.[14]
The Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission prepared this document specifically explaining the redistricting process after the 2020 census.
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| State legislative wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | State legislative seats change | Elections analyzed[15] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -1,022 | 7,365 | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -907 | 6,907 | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[16] | -782 | 7,561 | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -769 | 7,179 | |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -702 | 7,627 | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -702 | 7,306 | |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[17] | -695 | 7,481 | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -654 | 6,835 | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -640 | 7,361 | |
| 1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -494 | 7,513 | |
Candidate and office information
Process to become a candidate
For major party candidates
See statutes: Michigan Election Law, "Preparation and Filing of Nominating Petitions; Fees"
Political parties whose principal candidate received at least 5 percent of the total votes cast for all candidates for Michigan Secretary of State at the most recent general election are considered major parties and must generally nominate their candidates by primary election.[18]
A major party candidate for governor, the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, or the state legislature must file an affidavit of identity and nominating petition by 4:00 p.m. on the 15th Tuesday preceding the primary election. Candidates for secretary of state and attorney general are not nominated by primary, but by convention.Cite error: Closing </ref> missing for <ref> tag[19][20]
The affidavit of identity requires the candidate to provide basic identifying information (such as name, residential and mailing address, the office being sought, etc.). The affidavit also includes a campaign finance compliance statement, which the candidate must sign before a notary public.[19]
Nominating petition signature requirements vary according to the population of the electoral division (e.g., entire state, congressional district, state legislative district, etc.) and are summarized in the table below.[21]
| Statutory signature requirements for major party candidates | ||
|---|---|---|
| Population of electoral division | Minimum signatures | Maximum signatures |
| 0 - 9,999 | 3 | 10 |
| 10,000 - 24,999 | 20 | 50 |
| 25,000 - 49,999 | 50 | 100 |
| 50,000 - 74,999 | 100 | 200 |
| 75,000 - 99,999 | 200 | 400 |
| 100,000 - 199,999 | 300 | 500 |
| 200,000 - 499,999 | 500 | 1,000 |
| 500,000 - 999,999 | 1,000 | 2,000 |
| 1,000,000 - 1,999,999 | 2,000 | 4,000 |
| 2,000,000 - 4,999,999 | 4,000 | 8,000 |
| Over 5 million (statewide) | 15,000 | 30,000 |
A major party state legislative candidate may pay a filing fee of $100 in lieu of filing a nominating petition.[22]
Filing paperwork for federal, statewide, and multi-county state legislative district offices must be submitted to the Michigan Secretary of State. Filing paperwork for single-county state legislative district offices must be submitted to the appropriate county clerk.[20]
For minor party candidates
See statutes: Michigan Election Law, Section 168.686a
Political parties whose principal candidate received less than 5 percent of the total votes cast for all candidates for Michigan Secretary of State at the most recent general election are considered non-major parties and cannot nominate their candidates by primary election. Instead, such parties must nominate their candidates by county caucuses and state conventions. Candidates for the United States House of Representatives or the state legislature may be nominated by county caucuses, provided that the applicable electoral district lies entirely within the boundaries of a single county. Candidates for statewide office must be nominated by state conventions. District candidates (e.g., state legislative or congressional candidates whose districts encompass parts of more than one county) may be nominated at district caucuses held in conjunction with state conventions, provided that delegates from the district are in attendance.[18][23]
No more than one day following the conclusion of a caucus or convention, the chairperson and secretary of the caucus or convention must certify the names and mailing addresses of the selected candidates to the county clerk (if nominated by county caucus) or Michigan Secretary of State (if nominated by state convention). This certification must be accompanied by an affidavit of identity (the same as that filed by major party candidates) and a signed certificate of acceptance of the nomination for each candidate.[23]
Caucuses and conventions must be held by the date of the state primary election.[23]
For independent candidates
See statutes: Michigan Election Law, "Candidates Without Political Party Affiliation"
An independent candidate seeking placement on the general election ballot must file an affidavit of identity (the same as that filed by party candidates) and a qualifying petition. All filing materials must be submitted by 4:00 p.m. on the 110th day preceding the general election.[24]
Qualifying petition signature requirements vary according to the population of the electoral division (e.g., entire state, congressional district, state legislative district, etc.) and are summarized in the table below.[21]
| Statutory signature requirements for independent candidates | ||
|---|---|---|
| Population of electoral division | Minimum signatures | Maximum signatures |
| 0 - 9,999 | 9 | 30 |
| 10,000 - 24,999 | 60 | 150 |
| 25,000 - 49,999 | 150 | 300 |
| 50,000 - 74,999 | 300 | 600 |
| 75,000 - 99,999 | 600 | 1,200 |
| 100,000 - 199,999 | 900 | 1,500 |
| 200,000 - 499,999 | 1,500 | 3,000 |
| 500,000 - 999,999 | 3,000 | 6,000 |
| 1,000,000 - 1,999,999 | 6,000 | 12,000 |
| 2,000,000 - 4,999,999 | 12,000 | 24,000 |
| Over 5 million (statewide) | 30,000 | 60,000 |
Signatures on qualifying petitions must be collected in the 180 days prior to the date the petition is filed. Any signatures collected prior to that will not be counted.[21]
Filing paperwork for federal, statewide, and multi-county state legislative district offices must be submitted to the Michigan Secretary of State. Filing paperwork for single-county state legislative district offices must be submitted to the appropriate county clerk.[20]
For write-in candidates
In order to have his or her votes tallied, a write-in candidate must submit a declaration of intent to be a write-in candidate to the appropriate filing official by 4:00 p.m. on the second Friday immediately preceding an election.[25]
Filing paperwork for federal, statewide, and multi-county state legislative district offices must be submitted to the Michigan Secretary of State. Filing paperwork for single-county state legislative district offices must be submitted to the appropriate county clerk.[20]
Candidate name conventions
Michigan law establishes the following conventions to govern how a candidate's name can be rendered on an election ballot:[26]
| “ | If you are using a name that was not provided to you at birth, you must check the box and provide your former name. However, you do not need to provide a former name if your name changed because of marriage or divorce, is a nickname that you have been known as for at least 6 months, or was formally changed for any reason more than 10 years ago.[26][27] | ” |
Vacancies
Upon the death, resignation, or removal of a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, the governor must issue a call for a special election to fill the vacancy. A special primary must be held at least 20 days prior to the date of the special election. The proclamation must establish all election dates and candidate filing deadlines.[28]
Qualifications
Section 7 of Article 4 of the Michigan Constitution states, "Each senator and representative must be a citizen of the United States, at least 21 years of age, and an elector of the district he represents. The removal of his domicile from the district shall be deemed a vacation of the office. No person who has been convicted of subversion or who has within the preceding 20 years been convicted of a felony involving a breach of public trust shall be eligible for either house of the legislature."
Salaries and per diem
- See also: Comparison of state legislative salaries
| State legislative salaries, 2024[29] | |
|---|---|
| Salary | Per diem |
| $71,685/year | No per diem is paid. Legislators receive an expense allowance of $10,800/year for session and interim. |
When sworn in
Michigan legislators assume office at noon on the first day of January.[30]
Competitiveness
Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.
Results from 2016
Click here to read the full study »
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Twelve of 83 Michigan counties—14 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Bay County, Michigan | 12.55% | 5.56% | 15.31% | ||||
| Calhoun County, Michigan | 12.46% | 1.60% | 9.36% | ||||
| Eaton County, Michigan | 4.72% | 3.13% | 8.40% | ||||
| Gogebic County, Michigan | 14.80% | 8.10% | 17.27% | ||||
| Isabella County, Michigan | 3.66% | 9.28% | 19.26% | ||||
| Lake County, Michigan | 22.77% | 5.01% | 12.28% | ||||
| Macomb County, Michigan | 11.53% | 3.99% | 8.62% | ||||
| Manistee County, Michigan | 15.29% | 5.93% | 13.26% | ||||
| Monroe County, Michigan | 21.97% | 0.98% | 4.35% | ||||
| Saginaw County, Michigan | 1.13% | 11.89% | 17.34% | ||||
| Shiawassee County, Michigan | 19.59% | 3.67% | 8.59% | ||||
| Van Buren County, Michigan | 13.92% | 0.45% | 8.78% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Michigan with 47.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1836 and 2016, Michigan voted Republican 60.8 percent of the time and Democratic 34.7 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Michigan voted Democratic four out of the five elections.[31]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in Michigan. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[32][33]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 17 out of 38 state Senate districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 34.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 15 out of 38 state Senate districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 32.5 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 21 out of 38 state Senate districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 8.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 23 out of 38 state Senate districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 19.4 points. |
| 2016 presidential results by state Senate District | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 78.01% | 21.36% | D+56.7 | 70.57% | 26.21% | D+44.4 | D |
| 2 | 80.40% | 19.20% | D+61.2 | 77.38% | 19.94% | D+57.4 | D |
| 3 | 85.02% | 14.41% | D+70.6 | 80.72% | 16.10% | D+64.6 | D |
| 4 | 82.79% | 16.62% | D+66.2 | 74.58% | 22.31% | D+52.3 | D |
| 5 | 81.07% | 18.28% | D+62.8 | 76.09% | 20.66% | D+55.4 | D |
| 6 | 64.29% | 34.81% | D+29.5 | 53.19% | 42.23% | D+11 | D |
| 7 | 49.69% | 49.58% | D+0.1 | 48.43% | 46.61% | D+1.8 | R |
| 8 | 45.62% | 53.50% | R+7.9 | 35.90% | 59.69% | R+23.8 | R |
| 9 | 62.68% | 36.32% | D+26.4 | 53.35% | 42.27% | D+11.1 | D |
| 10 | 48.60% | 50.67% | R+2.1 | 39.95% | 56.02% | R+16.1 | R |
| 11 | 73.52% | 25.80% | D+47.7 | 71.50% | 24.62% | D+46.9 | D |
| 12 | 49.42% | 49.91% | R+0.5 | 47.42% | 47.94% | R+0.5 | R |
| 13 | 49.23% | 50.02% | R+0.8 | 50.39% | 44.44% | D+6 | R |
| 14 | 47.65% | 51.40% | R+3.8 | 38.88% | 55.65% | R+16.8 | R |
| 15 | 46.76% | 52.57% | R+5.8 | 45.68% | 49.81% | R+4.1 | R |
| 16 | 43.89% | 55.02% | R+11.1 | 33.29% | 61.33% | R+28 | R |
| 17 | 49.52% | 49.40% | D+0.1 | 36.34% | 58.07% | R+21.7 | R |
| 18 | 72.19% | 26.74% | D+45.5 | 73.19% | 22.24% | D+51 | D |
| 19 | 46.05% | 52.74% | R+6.7 | 35.92% | 58.11% | R+22.2 | R |
| 20 | 56.19% | 42.85% | D+13.3 | 53.30% | 40.51% | D+12.8 | R |
| 21 | 45.02% | 54.06% | R+9 | 37.47% | 57.33% | R+19.9 | R |
| 22 | 42.44% | 56.74% | R+14.3 | 38.73% | 56.04% | R+17.3 | R |
| 23 | 64.81% | 34.15% | D+30.7 | 61.94% | 32.12% | D+29.8 | D |
| 24 | 49.38% | 49.58% | R+0.2 | 41.34% | 52.38% | R+11 | R |
| 25 | 43.98% | 54.96% | R+11 | 29.92% | 64.93% | R+35 | R |
| 26 | 44.12% | 54.82% | R+10.7 | 38.61% | 55.28% | R+16.7 | R |
| 27 | 74.26% | 24.80% | D+49.5 | 62.19% | 33.52% | D+28.7 | D |
| 28 | 38.46% | 60.50% | R+22 | 35.66% | 57.83% | R+22.2 | R |
| 29 | 52.66% | 46.27% | D+6.4 | 54.31% | 39.18% | D+15.1 | R |
| 30 | 32.37% | 66.79% | R+34.4 | 31.69% | 62.34% | R+30.7 | R |
| 31 | 47.48% | 51.39% | R+3.9 | 33.76% | 60.95% | R+27.2 | R |
| 32 | 53.61% | 45.51% | D+8.1 | 44.51% | 50.67% | R+6.2 | R |
| 33 | 47.90% | 50.92% | R+3 | 35.42% | 58.59% | R+23.2 | R |
| 34 | 53.46% | 45.52% | D+7.9 | 42.22% | 52.04% | R+9.8 | R |
| 35 | 44.95% | 53.91% | R+9 | 33.50% | 61.25% | R+27.8 | R |
| 36 | 43.47% | 55.40% | R+11.9 | 32.71% | 61.86% | R+29.2 | R |
| 37 | 42.74% | 56.18% | R+13.4 | 36.71% | 57.65% | R+20.9 | R |
| 38 | 48.44% | 50.34% | R+1.9 | 38.62% | 55.64% | R+17 | R |
| Total | 54.30% | 44.79% | D+9.5 | 47.36% | 47.59% | R+0.2 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
See also
- Michigan State Senate
- Michigan State Legislature
- State legislative elections, 2018
- Michigan state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
- Michigan state legislative Republican primaries, 2018
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ Ballotpedia defines an incumbent as retiring if the incumbent did not file for office or filed for office but withdrew, was disqualified, or otherwise left a race in a manner other than losing the primary, primary runoff, or convention. If an incumbent runs as a write-in candidate, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring. If an incumbent runs in the same chamber for a different seat, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring.
- ↑ Johnson resigned his seat before the end of his term. His seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state senators in 2018.
- ↑ The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate were up for election in 2018 and have term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018.
- ↑ The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate are impacted by term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018. In the three chambers, a total of 129 seats were up for election in 2018. No legislators were unable to run in 2018 in those three chamber because of term limits.
- ↑ Ballotpedia confirmed through phone calls that at least seven California legislators were term-limited in 2018. The number of California legislators term-limited and the overall number of term-limited state legislators had a chance to change if Ballotpedia could confirm that more members were term-limited in 2018.
- ↑ Some of the 271 term-limited state legislators in 2018 may resign before their term ends. These legislators were still counted in the total number of term-limited legislators in 2018.
- ↑ Detroit Free Press, "Michigan House, Senate land 'big fish' business tax incentives," July 12, 2017
- ↑ Detroit Free Press, "Michigan House, Senate land 'big fish' business tax incentives," July 12, 2017
- ↑ Detroit Free Press, "Michigan Senate approves more tax breaks for businesses," March 29, 2017
- ↑ Michigan.gov, "Gov. Rick Snyder's statement regarding passage of Good Jobs legislation," July 12, 2017
- ↑ Fox2Detroit, "Snyder signs bill to give tax breaks for Michigan jobs," July 26, 2017
- ↑ MLive.com, "'Good Jobs' bills for new business tax incentives heads to governor," July 12, 2017
- ↑ Michigan Radio, "Redistricting proposal passes in Michigan," November 6, 2018
- ↑ The number of state legislative seats available for analysis varied, with as many as 7,795 and as few as 6,835.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
- ↑ 18.0 18.1 Michigan Election Law, "Section 168.532," accessed March 18, 2025
- ↑ 19.0 19.1 Michigan Secretary of State, "Affidavit of Identity and Receipt of Filing," accessed March 18, 2025
- ↑ 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 Michigan Department of State, "Preparing, Ciculating, and Filing Petitions for Public Office," accessed March 18, 2025
- ↑ 21.0 21.1 21.2 Michigan Secretary of State, "Petition Signature Requirement Chart," accessed May 19, 2023
- ↑ Michigan Election Law, "Section 168.163," accessed March 18, 2025
- ↑ 23.0 23.1 23.2 Michigan Election Law, "Section 168.686a," accessed March 18, 2025
- ↑ Michigan Election Law, "Section 168.590c," accessed March 18, 2025
- ↑ Michigan Election Law, "Section 168.737a," accessed March 18, 2025
- ↑ 26.0 26.1 Michigan Secretary of State, "Affidavit of Identity and Receipt of Filing," accessed March 25, 2025
- ↑ Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Michigan Election Law, "Section 168.145," accessed March 18, 2025
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "2024 Legislator Compensation," August 21, 2024
- ↑ Michigan Constitution, "Article XI, Section 2," accessed February 12, 2021
- ↑ 270towin.com, "Michigan," accessed June 29, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
