Maine gubernatorial election, 2014

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search



StateExecLogo.png

Maine Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date:
June 10, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Race rating: Toss-up

November 4 Election Winner:
Paul LePage Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Paul LePage Republican Party
PaulLePage.jpg

Maine State Executive Elections
Governor

Battleground Races
Maine State Senate

Divided government
WhoRunsTheStates Badge.jpg
State executive offices in Maine
Flag of Maine.png

The Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Paul LePage (R) was running for re-election to a second term. LePage won election to another four-year term.

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Maine utilizes a semi-closed primary process, in which both registered party members and unaffiliated voters may participate. Unaffiliated voters may vote in one partisan primary of their choosing in each election.[1][2]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

The race between LePage, Democratic candidate Mike Michaud and independent candidate Eliot Cutler was close throughout 2014. Polling information available in the polls section showed narrow margins between LePage and Michaud. Learn more about developments in the election by reading the race background section or check out the campaign media section for a collection of campaign ads aired during the race.

The gubernatorial race was not the only race on the November ballot that could shift the balance of power in Maine. The Maine State Senate was identified by Ballotpedia as one of the top 20 legislative chambers to watch in 2014. LePage's victory on November 4 prevented a state government trifecta, or single-party control, for the Democrats.

Candidates

General election

Republican Party Paul LePage - IncumbentGreen check mark transparent.png[3][4]
Democratic Party Mike Michaud - U.S. House Rep.[5][6]
Grey.png Eliot Cutler - Former congressional aide and 2010 Independent candidate for governor[4][7][8]

Withdrawn

Grey.png Lee Schultheis - Retired finance executive[9]

Failed to qualify

Grey.png Adam Eldridge - Project Engineer[10]
Grey.png David Slagger, Maine Green Independent Party - Ex-Maliseet Tribal Rep. to the state legislature and 2012 state house candidate[11]

Race background

Paul LePage ran for a second term as governor in 2014.[12][5] The Republican was widely considered one of the most vulnerable gubernatorial incumbents facing re-election that year. Sources ranging from Governing, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Washington Post, and Daily Kos rated the 2014 Maine governor's race as a toss-up.[13][14][15][16] In June 2013, after Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud launched his bid for the office, LePage briefly indicated interest in running for Michaud's seat in the U.S. House in 2014. LePage ultimately sought and won re-election as governor.[17][18]

Independent candidate Cutler's decision to remain in race

Polls published in October 2014 led supporters of Michaud to call for Cutler's withdrawal from the gubernatorial race. Cutler, who had lost to LePage by 1.7% in 2010, averaged about 13% in October polls gathered by Ballotpedia, while LePage and Michaud each approached 40%. He announced plans the same month to remain in the race and stated, "Anyone who has supported me but who now worries that I cannot win and is thereby compelled by their fears or by their conscience to vote instead for Mr. LePage or Mr. Michaud should do so."[19]

Following Cutler's decision to remain in the race, U.S. Sen. Angus King (I), who had endorsed Cutler in August, switched his support to U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud because "the voters of Maine are not prepared to elect Eliot in 2014."[20][21]

Campaign finance decision in district court

An August 22 decision by U.S. District Court Judge D. Brock Hornby regarding campaign finance limits in Maine led to a temporary shift in campaign finance regulations that impacted the 2014 race. Hornby ruled that a group of four donors to the campaign of independent candidate Eliot Cutler could go beyond a $1,500 per person limit on general election contributions for unaffiliated candidates. Democratic and Republican candidates in Maine have a higher contribution limit. Both major-party candidates did not face primary challenges in 2014, though the individual limit reset after the statewide primary on June 10.[22]

Attorneys representing the Maine Commission on Governmental Ethics and Election Practices defended the contribution limits, citing their ability to reduce corrupt practices. The state's attorneys also argued that supporters could use PACs to support their preferred candidates. Hornby dismissed these arguments, noting that the existing limitation treated contributors differently based on their political leanings. The decision left open the question of whether all donors to Cutler could contribute $3,000 ahead of the general election, or if the ruling focused on the four plaintiffs. The donors who brought the original lawsuit had promised to pursue further action to enshrine Hornby's decision into state law.[22]

The Maine Ethics Commission voted unanimously on August 27, 2014, not to enforce the $1,500 limit for each election, opting instead for a $3,000 per individual limit for the 2014 election cycle. The board's decision only applied to the 2014 election, and the Maine State Legislature would need to act for similar changes in future elections.[23] As of July 2017, no such changes were made.

Campaign finance complaints dismissed

The Maine Democratic Party filed an ethics complaint in early October against LePage, claiming that the governor used state property as part of his re-election campaign. The complaint argued that a campaign spokesperson used a state-funded vehicle in order to reach election-related events. The state Republican Party countered with a complaint against Michaud, accusing the U.S. House member of using federal campaign money for his gubernatorial campaign. The Maine Ethics Commission unanimously rejected further investigation of both claims on October 10, 2014.[24]

Michaud campaigns as openly gay candidate

On November 4, 2013, after establishing himself as the race's front-runner, Michaud disclosed in an op-ed column submitted to three of the state’s major news outlets that he was gay.[25] Michaud emphasized that his sexuality was irrelevant to his ability to perform in public office. He said he came out in response to "whisper campaigns, insinuations and push-polls some of the people opposed to my candidacy have been using to raise questions about my personal life."[25] This put Michaud in the running to become the first openly gay man or woman to be elected governor in the nation's history, though he ultimately lost to Gov. LePage.

Results

Governor of Maine, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPaul LePage Incumbent 48.2% 294,519
     Democratic Mike Michaud 43.4% 265,114
     Independent Eliot Cutler 8.4% 51,515
     Nonpartisan Write-in votes 0% 79
Total Votes 611,227
Election results via Maine Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions

Debates

October 8 debate

Paul LePage (R), Mike Michaud (D), and Eliot Cutler (I) discussed the state's economy during a debate on October 8, 2014. LePage said that the state's budget and repayments to state hospitals were examples of his first-term successes. He also argued that Democratic legislators had not delivered on past promises.[26]

Michaud countered that he was the only candidate on stage who had worked with Democrats and Republicans during his time in the United States House of Representatives. He also claimed that LePage was argumentative with state legislators and that this was a reason to replace him in the governor's office. Cutler argued that voters had an opportunity to reject what he called failed policies from Republican and Democratic governors by casting ballots for his independent candidacy.[26]

Polls

General election match-ups (October 2014)

2014 Maine gubernatorial election- Three-way race
Poll Mike Michaud (D) Paul LePage* (R)Eliot Cutler (I)Undecided or refusedMargin of errorSample size
Ipsos Poll
(October 23-29, 2014)
42%42%13%2%+/-3.51,005
Magellan Strategies
(October 23-24, 2014)
41.6%42.3%13.2%2.9%+/-3.32869
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
(October 16-23, 2014)
37%35%7%21%+/-51,177
Public Policy Polling
(October 22-23, 2014)
40%40%17%3%+/-3.6660
Maine Sunday Telegram/Portland Press Herald
(October 15-21, 2014)
35%45%16%4%+/-3.8639
Bangor Daily News/Ipsos
(October 6-12, 2014)
42%36%16%6%+/-3.51,004
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
(October 5-7, 2014)
43%39%15%3%+/-4605
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
{September 20-October 1, 2014}
39%37%10%13%+/-31,531
AVERAGES 39.95% 39.54% 13.4% 6.86% +/-3.72 936.25
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

General election match-ups (August 2013-September 2014)

2014 Maine gubernatorial election - Three-way race
Poll Mike Michaud (D) Paul LePage* (R)Eliot Cutler (I)Undecided or refusedMargin of errorSample size
Pan Atlantic SMS Group
(September 23-29, 2014)
33.6%39.3%19.5%7.8%+/-4.9400
Portland Press Herald
(September 18-25, 2014)
40%38%12%10%+/-4.4482
Public Policy Polling
(September 9, 2014)
43%42%11%4%+/-31,059
Rasmussen Reports
(September 3-4, 2014)
43%39%15%4%+/-4750
Maine People's Resource Center
(July 26-28, 2014)
42.6%41.4%12.6%3.4%+/-3.47796
Public Policy Polling
(May 5-6, 2014)
43%39%15%3%+/--754
Rasmussen Reports
(April 23-25, 2014)
40%40%14%6%+/-3.0830
The Pan Atlantic SMS Group
(March 31- April 5, 2014)
37.3%38.6%20.3%3.7%+/-4.9400
Public Policy Polling
(April 1-2, 2014)
44%37%14%5%+/--583
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
(January 13-23, 2014)
45%32%18%5%+/--400
Public Policy Poll
(November 8-11, 2013)
38%36%15%10%+/-3.2964
Maine People's Resource Center
(September 8-10, 2013)
40%34%16.8%9.1%+/-3.84652
Public Policy Polling
(August 23-25, 2013)
39%35%18%8%+/-3.2953
AVERAGES 40.65% 37.79% 15.48% 6.08% +/-2.38 694.08
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Note: An asterisk (*) is used to denote incumbent status
Hypothetical and other match-ups

2014 Maine gubernatorial election - Two-way race
Poll Mike Michaud (D) Paul LePage* (R)UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Portland Press Herald
(June 12-18, 2014)
51%44%4%+/-3.9625
Public Policy Poll
(November 8-11, 2013)
53%39%8%+/-3.2964
Maine People's Resource Center
(September 8-10, 2013)
55.9%36.1%7.9%+/-3.84652
Public Policy Polling
(August 23-25, 2013)
54%39%7%+/-3.2953
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research/National Education Association
(July 11-16, 2013)
61%34%5%+/-4.9400
AVERAGES 54.98% 38.42% 6.38% +/-3.81 718.8
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Note: An asterisk (*) is used to denote incumbent status

Hypothetical Match-up Poll
Poll Mike Michaud (D) Paul LePage* (R)Eliot Cutler (I)Margin of errorSample size
Portland Press Herald
(June 12-18, 2014)
40%36%15%+/-3.9625
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Note: An asterisk (*) is used to denote incumbent status

Hypothetical Match-up Poll
Poll Eliot Cutler (I) Paul LePage* (R)UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Portland Press Herald
(June 12-18, 2014)
50%38%9%+/-3.9625
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Note: An asterisk (*) is used to denote incumbent status

Campaign media

Eliot Cutler

Eliot Cutler ad: Jobs & the Economy
Eliot Cutler ad: Wait for Debates
Eliot Cutler ad: Angus King Endorsement
Eliot Cutler ad: Infrastructure

Mike Michaud

Mike Michaud ad: Millworker
Mike Michaud ad: Made in Maine
Mike Michaud ad: Jump-Start

Paul LePage

Paul LePage ad: Truth
Paul LePage ad: Honor Our Veterans

Outside groups

Maine Conservation Voters

Maine Conservation Voters ad: Clear Choice

Maine Forward

Maine Forward ad: Moving Again
Maine Forward ad: Character

Planned Parenthood

Planned Parenthood ad: Trust

Republican Governors Association

RGA ad: Step Back
RGA ad: Trust
RGA ad: Open for Business

Ad spending

The Wesleyan Media Project published a report on September 30, 2014, highlighting spending on gubernatorial races from September 12-25. This report found that Democratic and Republican groups spent a total of $46.84 million on TV ads in 15 states with gubernatorial elections. The following chart details the group's findings, including spending amounts and number of ads:[27]

Note: A bolded number indicates the highest total for this category. A number in italics is the lowest total for this category.

Spending on TV ads, September 12-25, 2014
State Total # of ads % Democratic-leaning ads % GOP-leaning ads Total spending-Democratic leaning (in millions of $) Total spending-GOP leaning (in millions of $)
Colorado 2,460 83.1 16.9 1.35 0.39
Connecticut 2,312 61.7 38.3 1.48 0.89
Florida 20,111 38.5 61.5 4.07 6.64
Georgia 4,625 51.1 48.9 1.43 0.99
Illinois 7,793 63.5 36.5 4.17 3.5
Iowa 2,134 47.5 52.5 0.25 0.38
Kansas 5,024 45.7 54.3 0.85 1.17
Maine 3,281 42.3 57.7 0.46 0.32
Michigan 6,767 33.9 66.1 1.14 2.3
Minnesota 1,974 83.9 16.1 0.65 0.29
New York 4,926 61 39 2.18 0.88
Pennsylvania 3,263 50.9 49.1 1.58 1.23
South Carolina 2,883 39.1 60.9 0.33 0.38
Texas 10,330 33.4 66.6 2.24 2.93
Wisconsin 7,374 63.3 36.7 1.36 1.01
TOTALS 85,257 48.2 51.8 23.54 23.3

Campaign finance

Comprehensive donor information for this election has been collected by Follow the Money. Based on available campaign finance records, the candidates raised a total of $8,238,300 during the election. This information was last updated on March 27, 2015.[28]

Campaign Contribution Totals
Candidate Office Result Contributions
Eliot Cutler Independent Governor of Maine Defeated $3,121,781
Michael Michaud Democratic Party Governor of Maine Defeated $3,093,097
Paul LePage Republican Party Governor of Maine Won $2,023,422
Grand Total Raised $8,238,300

Past elections

Margin of victory analysis

The average margin of victory in the past three races for governor was 5.1 percent. The smallest margin of victory was 1.7 percent in 2010, while the largest margin of victory was 7.9 percent in 2006. Third-party candidates have significantly increased their vote shares in the past three elections, earning 11.4 percent, 31.8 percent and 52.7 percent of votes in 2002, 2006 and 2010, respectively. The following chart compares the margin of victory for winners of gubernatorial races with the margin of victory for candidates who won the most votes for the top race on the ballot:[29]

Margin of victory analysis
Year Gov. candidate margin of victory (%) Party of winning candidate Top race on ballot Party of winning candidate Margin of victory (%)
2010 1.7 Republican Party - - -
2006 7.9 Democratic Party U.S. Senate Republican Party 53.6
2002 5.6 Democratic Party U.S. Senate Republican Party 16.8

Note: There was no statewide vote for federal office in 2010.

2010

See also: Maine gubernatorial election, 2010
Governor of Maine, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPaul LePage 37.6% 218,065
     Independent Eliot Cutler 35.9% 208,270
     Democratic Elizabeth Mitchell 18.8% 109,387
     Independent Shawn H. Moody 5% 28,756
     Independent Kevin L. Scott 1% 5,664
     Blanks - 1.3% 7,772
     Others Various 0.5% 2,624
Total Votes 580,538
Election results via Maine Secretary of State

2006

Governor of Maine, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn E. Baldacci Incumbent 38.1% 209,927
     Republican Chandler E. Woodcock 30.2% 166,425
     Independent Barbara Merrill 21.6% 118,715
     Green Patricia H. LaMarche 9.6% 52,690
     Independent Phillip Morris Napier 0.6% 3,108
Total Votes 550,865
Election results via Maine Secretary of State

2002

Governor of Maine, 2002
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn E. Baldacci 47.1% 238,179
     Republican Peter E. Cianchette 41.5% 209,496
     Green Jonathan K. Carter 9.3% 46,903
     Independent John M. Michael 2.1% 10,612
Total Votes 505,190
Election results via Maine Secretary of State

Voter turnout

Political scientist Michael McDonald's United States Elections Project studied voter turnout in the 2014 election by looking at the percentage of eligible voters who headed to the polls. McDonald used voting-eligible population (VEP), or the number of eligible voters independent of their current registration status, to calculate turnout rates in each state on November 4. He also incorporated ballots cast for the highest office in each state into his calculation. He estimated that 81,687,059 ballots were cast in the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, representing 35.9 percent of the VEP.[30] By comparison, 61.6 percent of VEP voted in the 2008 presidential election and 58.2 percent of VEP voted in the 2012 presidential election.[31]

Quick facts

  • According to PBS Newshour, voter turnout in the 2014 midterms was the lowest since the 1942 midterms, which took place during the nation's involvement in World War II.[32]
  • Forty-three states and the District of Columbia failed to surpass 50 percent turnout in McDonald's analysis.
  • The three states with the lowest turnout according to McDonald's analysis were Texas (28.3 percent), Tennessee (28.6 percent), and Indiana (28.8 percent).
  • Maine (58.5 percent), Wisconsin (56.5 percent), and Colorado (54.5 percent) were the three states with the highest turnout.
  • There were only 12 states that increased voter turnout in 2014 compared to the 2010 midterm elections.[33]

Note: Information from the United States Elections Project was last updated on December 16, 2014.

Key deadlines

Deadline Event
June 10, 2014 Primary election
November 4, 2014 General election
January 6, 2015 Inauguration day for state executive officials

Ballotpedia reports

To learn more about developments in this race, check out the following news articles from Ballotpedia:

Recent news

This section links to a Google news search for the term "Maine + governor + elections"

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. NCSL, "State Primary Election Types," accessed June 12, 2024
  2. Main Legislature Revised Statutes, "§341. Unenrolled voter participation in primary elections allowed," accessed June 12, 2024
  3. LePage for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 9, 2013
  4. 4.0 4.1 Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2013-2014 Gubernatorial Races," March 4, 2013
  5. 5.0 5.1 The Washington Post blogs, "Rep. Mike Michaud steps into Maine governors race," June 13, 2013 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "gov14" defined multiple times with different content
  6. Michaud 2014 For Governor Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed June 26, 2013
  7. Eliot Cutler for Maine 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 9, 2013
  8. Bangor Daily News, "Independent Eliot Cutler announces run for governor in Bangor," September 24, 2013
  9. GBNR 2014 Official Campaign Website of Lee Schulteis, "Homepage," accessed September 9, 2013
  10. Kennebec Journal, "Michaud to formalize gubernatorial bid Thursday in Lewiston," August 14, 2013
  11. David Slagger for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 9, 2013
  12. Maine Biz, "LePage eyes long-term goals, says 2014 run likely," May 8, 2013
  13. University of Virginia Center for Politics: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2013-2014 Gubernatorial Races," April 29, 2013
  14. The Washington Post, "The Fix's top gubernatorial races," September 27, 2013
  15. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections gubernatorial race ratings: Initial ratings for 2013-14," October 6, 2013
  16. Governing Politics, "2013-2014 Governor's Races: Who's Vulnerable?" December 12, 2012
  17. The Morning Sentinel, "LePage: Sorry if you were offended," June 24, 2013
  18. The Washington Post blogs, "Rep. Mike Michaud steps into Maine governors race," June 13, 2013
  19. Portland Press Herald, "Cutler staying in race, insists Mainers should ‘vote their conscience’," October 29, 2014
  20. Bangor Daily News, "King endorses fellow independent Cutler for Maine governor," August 19, 2014
  21. Portland Press Herald, "Angus King switches endorsement from Cutler to Michaud," October 29, 2014
  22. 22.0 22.1 USA Today, "Judge: Cutler donors can increase contributions," August 23, 2014
  23. Bangor Daily News, "Maine Ethics Commission changes donor limit rule in governor’s race," August 27, 2014
  24. Portland Press Herald, "Maine ethics panel dismisses complaints in governor’s race," October 11, 2014
  25. 25.0 25.1 Portland Press Herald, "Maine governor candidate Mike Michaud: I’m gay ," November 4, 2013
  26. 26.0 26.1 Reuters, "Maine governor, Democratic challenger face off amid tight race," October 8, 2014
  27. Wesleyan Media Project, "GOP Groups Keeping Senate Contests Close," September 30, 2014
  28. Follow the Money, "Overview of Maine 2014 elections," accessed March 27, 2015
  29. Maine Department of the Secretary of State, "Election Results," accessed September 25, 2014
  30. United States Elections Project, "2014 November General Election Turnout Rates," November 7, 2014
  31. TIME, "Voter Turnout in Midterm Elections Hits 72-Year Low," November 10, 2014
  32. PBS, "2014 midterm election turnout lowest in 70 years," November 10, 2014
  33. U.S. News & World Report, "Midterm Turnout Down in 2014," November 5, 2014