Illinois' 4th Congressional District election, 2018

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
General election
General election for U.S. House Illinois District 4

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jesus Garcia
Jesus Garcia (D)
 
86.6
 
143,895
Image of Mark Wayne Lorch
Mark Wayne Lorch (R)
 
13.4
 
22,294

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 166,189
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.


2020 →
← 2016
Illinois' 4th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 4, 2017
Primary: March 20, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Luis Gutierrez (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Illinois
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+33
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Illinois' 4th Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th
Illinois elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Illinois, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Luis Gutierrez (D), who was first elected in 1992.

Illinois' 4th Congressional District includes part of Cook County.[1]

This page covered the general election in this race. Click here to read more about the Democratic Party primary election. Click here to read more about the Republican Party primary election.


Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Illinois District 4

Jesus Garcia defeated Mark Wayne Lorch in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jesus Garcia
Jesus Garcia (D)
 
86.6
 
143,895
Image of Mark Wayne Lorch
Mark Wayne Lorch (R)
 
13.4
 
22,294

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 166,189
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 4

Jesus Garcia defeated Sol Flores and Richard Gonzalez in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 4 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jesus Garcia
Jesus Garcia
 
66.2
 
49,631
Image of Sol Flores
Sol Flores
 
21.9
 
16,398
Image of Richard Gonzalez
Richard Gonzalez
 
11.9
 
8,921

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 74,950
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 4

Mark Wayne Lorch advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 4 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mark Wayne Lorch
Mark Wayne Lorch
 
100.0
 
5,805

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 5,805
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+33, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 33 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Illinois' 4th Congressional District the 19th most Democratic nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Jesus Garcia Democratic Party $873,126 $858,056 $15,070 As of December 31, 2018
Mark Wayne Lorch Republican Party $8,109 $8,109 $0 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


District history

2016

See also: Illinois' 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Luis Gutierrez (D) faced no opposition in the general election on November 8, 2016. Gutierrez defeated Javier Salas in the Democratic primary on March 15, 2016.[4][5]

U.S. House, Illinois District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngLuis Gutierrez Incumbent 100% 171,297
Total Votes 171,297
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections


U.S. House, Illinois District 4 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngLuis Gutierrez Incumbent 75.2% 92,779
Javier Salas 24.8% 30,640
Total Votes 123,419
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections

2014

See also: Illinois' 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Illinois held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Luis Gutierrez (D) defeated Hector Concepcion (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, Illinois District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngLuis Gutierrez Incumbent 78.1% 79,666
     Republican Hector Concepcion 21.9% 22,278
Total Votes 101,944
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections Official Results

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eleven of 102 Illinois counties—10.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Alexander County, Illinois 8.30% 13.65% 12.62%
Carroll County, Illinois 26.69% 1.49% 4.81%
Fulton County, Illinois 14.93% 11.04% 21.33%
Henderson County, Illinois 28.43% 12.25% 17.67%
Henry County, Illinois 20.99% 3.08% 7.74%
Jo Daviess County, Illinois 14.64% 1.16% 10.49%
Knox County, Illinois 2.91% 17.37% 19.89%
Mercer County, Illinois 20.36% 7.39% 11.91%
Putnam County, Illinois 19.92% 1.82% 15.64%
Warren County, Illinois 16.50% 5.47% 8.08%
Whiteside County, Illinois 6.18% 17.02% 17.56%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Illinois with 55.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 38.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Illinois voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 50 percent of the time. Illinois voted Democratic in all five elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Illinois. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[6][7]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 75 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 39.2 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 76 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 42.1 points. Clinton won 13 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 43 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 15 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 42 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 22.1 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Illinois heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Illinois General Assembly. They had a 67-51 majority in the state House and a 37-22 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Illinois was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Bruce Rauner (R) served as governor, while Democrats controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Illinois elections, 2018

Illinois held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Illinois
 IllinoisU.S.
Total population:12,839,047316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):55,5193,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:72.3%73.6%
Black/African American:14.3%12.6%
Asian:5%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:16.5%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:87.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:32.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$57,574$53,889
Persons below poverty level:16.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Illinois.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Illinois' three largest cities were Chicago (pop. est. 2.7 million), Aurora (pop. est. 200,000), and Joliet (pop. est. 150,000).[8][9]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Illinois from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Illinois State Board of Elections.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Illinois every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 55.8% Republican Party Donald Trump 38.8% 17.0%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 57.6% Republican Party Mitt Romney 40.7% 16.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 61.9% Republican Party John McCain 36.8% 25.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 54.8% Republican Party George W. Bush 44.5% 10.3%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 54.6% Republican Party George W. Bush 42.6% 12.0%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Illinois from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Tammy Duckworth 54.9% Republican Party Mark Kirk 39.8% 15.1%
2014 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 53.5% Republican Party Jim Oberweis 42.7% 10.8%
2010 Republican Party Mark Kirk 48.0% Democratic Party Alexander Giannoulias 46.4% 1.6%
2008 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 67.8% Republican Party Steve Sauerberg 28.5% 39.3%
2004 Democratic Party Barack Obama 70.0% Republican Party Alan Keyes 27.0% 43.0%
2002 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 60.3% Republican Party Jim Durkin 38.0% 22.3%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Illinois.

Election results (Governor), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Bruce Rauner 50.3% Democratic Party Pat Quinn 46.3% 4.0%
2010 Democratic Party Pat Quinn 46.8% Republican Party Bill Brady 45.9% 0.9%
2006 Democratic Party Rod Blagojevich 49.8% Republican Party Judy Baar Topinka 39.3% 10.5%
2002 Democratic Party Rod Blagojevich 52.2% Republican Party Jim Ryan 45.1% 7.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Illinois in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Illinois 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 7 38.9% Democratic Party 11 61.1% D+4
2014 Republican Party 8 44.4% Democratic Party 10 55.6% D+2
2012 Republican Party 6 33.3% Democratic Party 12 66.7% D+6
2010 Republican Party 11 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+3
2008 Republican Party 7 36.8% Democratic Party 12 63.2% D+5
2006 Republican Party 9 47.4% Democratic Party 10 52.6% D+1
2004 Republican Party 9 47.4% Democratic Party 10 52.6% D+1
2002 Republican Party 10 52.6% Democratic Party 9 47.4% R+1
2000 Republican Party 10 50.0% Democratic Party 10 50.0% Even

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Illinois Party Control: 1992-2025
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  Two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D
Senate D R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House D D D R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate List," accessed November 30, 2015
  5. ↑ The New York Times, "Illinois Primary Results," March 15, 2016
  6. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  8. ↑ Illinois Demographics, "Illinois Cities by Population," accessed December 11, 2017
  9. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Illinois," accessed December 11, 2017
v • e
2017-2018 Elections to the United States Congress
Senate by StateCongressLogo.png
House by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
Super PACs/Organizations
v • e
Ballotpedia
About
Editorial Content
Geoff Pallay, Director of Editorial Content and Editor-in-Chief • Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy • Norm Leahy, Senior Editor • Daniel Anderson, Managing Editor • Ryan Byrne, Managing Editor • Cory Eucalitto, Managing Editor • Mandy Gillip, Managing Editor • Doug Kronaizl, Local Elections Project Manager • Jaclyn Beran • Marielle Bricker • Joseph Brusgard • Emma Burlingame • Kelly Coyle • Thomas Ellis • Frank Festa • Nicole Fisher • Brianna Hosea • Joseph Greaney • Thomas Grobben • Jaime Healy-Plotkin • Tyler King • Glorie Martinez • Nathan Maxwell • Ellie Mikus • Jackie Mitchell • Ellen Morrissey • Mackenzie Murphy • Kaley Platek • Samantha Post • Adam Powell • Ethan Rice • Spencer Richardson • Victoria Rose • Briana Ryan • Myj Saintyl • Maddy Salucka • Maddie Sinclair Johnson • Abbey Smith • Alexis Thacker • Janie Valentine • Joel Williams • Samuel Wonacott • Trenton Woodcox



Illinois' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Tammy Duckworth (D)
Dick Durbin (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
Mike Bost (R)
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Democratic Party (16)
Republican Party (3)

Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Illinois%27_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2018&oldid=7617146"