Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the Fox News Republican Debate
August 7, 2015
Part I: Who was the biggest winner?
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio won the nod from Republican Party insiders as the winner of the first GOP presidential debate held in Cleveland on Thursday night. In an online survey conducted by Ballotpedia at the debate’s conclusion, 106 Republican operatives, strategists and party activists from around the country weighed in and 29 percent said that they thought Rubio was the "biggest winner" in the ten candidate melee held in the Quicken Loans Arena, where Republicans will formally nominate their 2016 standard bearer next July. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, were tightly bunched vying for the evening’s runner-up award.
Who was the biggest winner? - Republican Responses
Rubio was "in command of subject matter" and "good on his feet," observed one GOP insider. Another added that Rubio offered, “strong, informed, thoughtful, unifying comments.” And a third GOP operative said, "Rubio was smart, sharp, strong, without being strident." The survey was conducted anonymously in order to encourage candor from the party influentials.
But nearly as impressive as Rubio’s performance were the showings by Kasich and Christie, the final two candidates to make the cut-off for participating in the debate, which FOX determined by averaging the candidates’ standings in national polls of Republican preferences for their party’s presidential nomination. "Kasich got national exposure for the first time in his campaign, sounded confident and reasonable," said one GOP operative. Another ascertained that Kasich "broke through with focused, clear messaging." And being the hometown favorite, perhaps it’s not surprising that Kasich "connected to audience best," in the view of another Insider. In one of the debate’s more heated exchanges, Christie, a former federal prosecutor who was generally composed throughout the evening, forcefully rebutted Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul on the need for telephone surveillance in order to track potential terrorists. And as one GOP insider put it, "In our party, national security and fighting terrorism still trumps privacy concerns."
Bush turned in a balanced performance and "came across as a governing conservative," as one Republican insider described him." Another said, "Bush looked like a president." But others thought the former Florida governor was underwhelming. Bush "was really flat," observed a GOP operative. "He needed to be great and failed to stand out." Another simply said, "He’s boring." As the favorite of many in the Republican establishment, Bush would be expected to score better among party insiders, but he did not stand out in this debate. When the Republican influentials and influencers were asked which candidates helped or hurt themselves in the debate, just over half said Bush had helped himself. But that showing was a fourth to Kasich, Rubio and Christie: more than 70 percent of the GOP insiders said each one of them had helped their cause in this debate.
Who helped or hurt themselves in the debate? - Republican Responses
Part II: Who was the biggest loser?
About halfway through the evening, the candidate who has led in the polls, businessman Donald Trump, gestured towards the three FOX debate questioners, looked out into the audience in the Quicken Loans Arena and said, "I don’t think they like me very much." Perhaps, but Republican insiders were even more biting in their assessment of Trump’s debate performance. Almost half, 49%, said they thought Trump was the "biggest loser" of the debate. And they were unstinting in their criticism. "Too much anger, too many non sequiturs," said one GOP insider. "Peevish, scowling, thin skinned, shallow," said another. "Bombastic, offensive and arrogant," echoed a third.
Several of the GOP professionals were put off by Trump’s declaration at the start of the debate that he couldn’t rule out an independent run for the presidency if he didn’t win the party’s nomination. "He alienated people on the very first question," said a party operative. "He showed this is all about him. He is more concerned about himself than our party or beating Clinton." Another GOP insider predicted, "He would lose a general election by 50 points."
Who was the biggest loser? - Republican Responses
The other candidate who got bad reviews was Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, whose libertarian stance on civil liberties and heterodox views on foreign policy seemed to separate himself from the GOP rank-and-file. Roughly one-quarter of the GOP insiders said that he was the "biggest loser" of the night. "He is on a lonely island floating away," joked one GOP influential. "Paul needed to halt his drop, but if anything he accelerated it," another party insider predicted. If either Trump or Paul is to succeed in the primaries or caucuses, it will be as an insurgent candidate, which befits their style, but wins few fans among the party establishment. "Trump and Paul both demonstrated why neither will ever be president," said one GOP insider. "The former cannot play team ball and the latter is just out of step with mainstream Republicans."
Part III: "We want Carly"
The biggest winner of the Cleveland debates may not have even been on the stage in prime time on Thursday night. Former businesswoman Carly Fiorina delivered a standout performance in the so-called "happy hour" debate of the seven GOP White House hopefuls who didn’t make the cut for the 10-candidate championship bout. When asked which candidate they would like to have seen in the prime time encounter, an overwhelming 80% of the GOP insiders picked Fiorina. Texas Gov. Rick Perry came in distant second on this, garnering 9% support from the Republican operatives.
Which candidate would you like to have seen in the prime time debate? - Republican Responses
"Carly Fiorina was so dominant in the first debate she is the big winner the whole night," gushed one Republican strategist. "Thought Carly Fiorina was the best of the evening and it was a joke that she was in the earlier debate," echoed another. Indeed, if Fiorina’s favorable reviews give her enough of a boost in the polls so that she is not excluded from any upcoming "prime time" Republican debates, she will have probably made the most significant gain from this initial encounter of the 2016 GOP White House hopefuls.
Part IV: View from the Democrats
While their team was not on the field last night, 44 Democratic Party insiders weighed in on the GOP clash in Cleveland and on some key aspects, their views on the debate were similar to those of their Republican brethren. For instance, Democratic operatives and strategists thought by a healthy margin that Kasich, Christie and Rubio, all helped themselves considerably by their performance on Thursday night. "Rubio reminded everyone why he is their 'favorite' candidate and second choice: as this thing cycles through, he will be in a good spot," observed one Democratic insider. "Kasich cemented his spot in the top tier as a serious candidate." Another Democrat said, "I give points to Christie for doing everything he could, but it is hard to see how he gets traction."
Who was the biggest winner? - Democrat Responses
A 30 percent plurality of Democratic influentials liked Kasich as the "biggest winner" of the evening, followed by Rubio, who garnered 21 percent of the support from Democrats. Of Kasich, one Democratic operative said, "He did a good job of introducing himself to America. Came across as reasonable on a stage full of right-wing extremists." Rubio, said another Democrat, "was very likable, smart, succinct, and did not take the bait with Trump."
Who was the biggest loser? - Democrat Responses
And like Republicans, there were definitely mixed views on Jeb Bush among Democrats. "Bush was boring, but was clearly the most qualified on the stage and showed it," said one Democratic insider. "If the goal was to set himself apart, he failed," said another Democrat. "If his goal was to appear to be the presumptive nominee, he failed." The Democrats also picked up on the challenges facing Paul. "He got attacked by a lot of people," noted one Democratic operative. "He says he is different kind of Republican; they don’t want a different kind of Republican." Fiorina was also the wide choice among Democrats, who they would like to have seen on the main GOP debate stage in Cleveland.
Which candidate would you like to have seen in the prime time debate? - Democrat Responses
James A. Barnes has conducted surveys of political elites for National Journal magazine, where he founded the Insiders Poll, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov.