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Election results, 2022: Wave elections
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November 8, 2022 |
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. In 2018, Ballotpedia published a study in which we examined the results of the 50 election cycles between 1918 and 2016—spanning President Woodrow Wilson’s (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump’s (R) first presidential election in 2016. We defined wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest swing against the president’s party. In our study, we examined four election categories: U.S. House, U.S. Senate, gubernatorial elections, and state legislative elections.
Under Ballotpedia's definition, the 2022 elections — the first midterm election during Joe Biden's (D) presidency — did not qualify as a wave election in any category.
Heading into November 8, Democrats needed to lose 48 U.S. House seats, seven U.S. Senate seats, seven gubernatorial seats, and 494 state legislative seats for each group of elections to have qualified historically as a wave against the president's party.
As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats lost nine U.S. House seats, gained one U.S. Senate seat, gained two governorships and lost six state legislative seats.
U.S. House
For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election in the U.S. House, Democrats had to lose 48 U.S. House seats.[1] As a result of the election, Democrats lost nine seats, 39 seats fewer than the number needed to make 2022 a wave election.
The president's party lost 48 or more U.S. House seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 97 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1932 to 48 seats lost under Presidents Lyndon Johnson (1966) and Gerald Ford (1974).
Six of the 11 wave elections happened in a president's first midterm election.
The median number of seats lost by the presidential party is six. The average number of seats lost is about 14.
| U.S. House wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | House seats change | House majority[2] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -97 | D | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -76 | R | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -70 | D | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -63 | R (flipped) | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -59 | R | |
| 1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -54 | R (flipped) | |
| 1994 | Clinton | D | First midterm | -54 | R (flipped) | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -53 | D (flipped) | |
| 1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -50 | D | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[3] | -48 | D | |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[4] | -48 | D | |
U.S. Senate
For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election in the U.S. Senate, Democrats had to lose seven U.S. Senate seats. As a result of the election, Democrats gained one seat in the U.S. Senate, meaning the 2022 general election was not a wave election.
The president's party lost seven or more U.S. Senate seats in 10 of the 48 Senate elections since 1918, ranging from seven seats lost under Presidents Calvin Coolidge (1926) and Herbert Hoover (1930) to 13 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1932.
Three of the 10 wave elections happened in a president's first midterm election.
The median number of seats lost by the president’s party is one. The average number of seats lost is about two.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 wave elections.
| U.S. Senate wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | Senate seats change | Senate majority[5] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -13 | D (flipped) | |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -12 | D | |
| 1980 | Carter | D | Presidential | -11 | R (flipped) | |
| 1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -10 | R (flipped) | |
| 1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -9 | D | |
| 2014 | Obama | D | Second midterm | -9 | R (flipped) | |
| 1986 | Reagan | R | Second midterm | -8 | D (flipped) | |
| 2008 | George W. Bush | D | Presidential | -8 | D | |
| 1926 | Coolidge | R | First midterm[6] | -7 | R | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -7 | R | |
Governorships
For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election at the state executive level, Democrats had to lose seven gubernatorial seats. As a result of the election, Democrats gained two gubernatorial seats, meaning the 2022 general election was not a wave election.
The president's party lost seven or more gubernatorial seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from seven seats lost under Presidents Ronald Reagan (1986) and Barack Obama (2010) to 12 seats lost under President Richard Nixon in 1970.
Eight of the 11 wave elections happened in a president's first midterm election.
The median number of gubernatorial seats lost by the president’s party is two. The average number of seats lost is almost three.
The varying number of gubernatorial elections held each year from 1918 to 2016 complicated this analysis. To read more about this limitation, click here.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 wave elections.
| Gubernatorial wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | Gubernatorial seats change | Elections analyzed[7] | |
| 1970 | Nixon | R | First midterm | -12 | 35 | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -11 | 33 | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -10 | 35 | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -10 | 36 | |
| 1994 | Clinton | D | First midterm | -10 | 36 | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -9 | 33 | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -9 | 33 | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[3] | -9 | 35 | |
| 1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -8 | 33 | |
| 1982 | Reagan | R | First midterm | -7 | 36 | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -7 | 33 | |
State legislative seats
For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election at the state legislative level, Democrats had to lose 494 state legislative seats. Democrats lost six state legislative seats, 488 seats fewer than the number needed to make 2022 a wave election.
State legislative races occur every two or four years, depending on the state and the chamber. The number of state legislative seats we analyzed varied due to the changing size of state legislative chambers, states being added to the union, states changing their election years, and more. See our data explanation section to see how we accounted for different term lengths and odd-year elections.
The president's party lost 494 or more state legislative seats in 10 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 494 seats lost under President Dwight Eisenhower in 1954 to 1,022 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1932.
Five of the 10 wave elections happened in a president's first midterm election.
The median number of seats lost by the president's party is 82. The average number of seats lost is about 169.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 wave elections.
| State legislative wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | State legislative seats change | Elections analyzed[8] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -1022 | 7365 | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -907 | 6907 | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[3] | -782 | 7561 | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -769 | 7179 | |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -702 | 7627 | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -702 | 7306 | |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[4] | -695 | 7481 | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -654 | 6835 | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -640 | 7361 | |
| 1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -494 | 7513 | |
What is a wave
- See also: Media definitions of a wave election
We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections where the president's party lost the most seats during the last 100 years (50 election cycles).
While there is not an agreed-upon definition of waves in political science, a number of scholars and journalists have tried to define the concept focusing mostly on the House of Representatives. Most frequently, political scientists will set a specific seat gain as being necessary for an election to qualify as a wave. For example, Stu Rothenberg and Al Turchfarber classify elections as waves if a party gains at least 20 seats.[9] Rothenberg’s definition also requires that the other party have minimal losses in the election.[10]
Jacob Smith, an author of this report, previously defined a wave election as “a congressional election that (1) produces the potential for a political party to significantly affect the political status quo as (2) the result of a substantial increase in seats for that party.” Under this definition, elections are compared to recent previous years in terms of both seat swing and seat gain.[11]
In most cases, these definitions produce similar results to the definition presented here, although the 20-seat-swing standard means that many historical elections will be counted as waves given the high electoral volatility of that time period.
Here are a few more definitions of waves that have been offered by academics, election experts, and journalists:
- Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report said that wave elections occur when the out-of-power party wins "significantly more seats than they [need] to win control" and that a Democratic gain of 35 House seats in 2018 would qualify as a wave. She also wrote that races her outlet rates as "Toss-up" disproportionately break toward one party during wave elections. She noted that Democrats won 55 percent of Republican-held "Toss-up" seats in 2006 and that Republicans won 65 percent of Democratic-held "Toss-up" seats in 2010.[12]
- Catholic University political scientist Matthew Green said that a wave election occurs when "an unusual magnitude of seats or offices switches from one party to another." However, he said that the exact magnitude is unclear and that he believes a wave election should be calculated by the seats a party wins, not the vote margins in the races.[13]
- Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post said that a wave could be said to occur when a party running on a nationalized message makes gains in House, Senate, and gubernatorial races.[14]
See also
- Wave elections (1918-2016)/Full report
- United States Congress elections, 2022
- United States Senate elections, 2022
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2022
- Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022
Footnotes
- ↑ Republicans lost 47 seats in 1958, Eisenhower's second midterm. This fell just outside of our definition for a wave election and is not included.
- ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
- ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
- ↑ Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924.
- ↑ The number of gubernatorial seats up for election varies, with as many as 36 seats and as few as 12 seats being up in a single year.
- ↑ The number of state legislative seats available for analysis varied, with as many as 7,795 and as few as 6,835.
- ↑ Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, "What Is a Wave in the Senate?" September 11, 2014
- ↑ Roll Call, "Are We Headed for Four Wave Elections in a Row?" January 31, 2011
- ↑ Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, "How to Tell if 2016 Is a Wave Election," August 25, 2016
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "How to Define a Wave," June 7, 2018
- ↑ Matthew N. Green, "Was 2014 a “Wave” Election?" November 17, 2014
- ↑ Washington Post, "Is this a wave election? And what would that look like if it is?" October 30, 2014