Detroit, Mich., Fox News Republican Debate (March 3, 2016)
This article focuses exclusively on the Eleventh Republican debate hosted by Fox News on March 3, 2016. Click here to access Ballotpedia's full 2015-2016 presidential debate coverage. A schedule for Republican primary debates can be found below.
Ballotpedia's coverage of the eleventh Republican debate—which took place on March 3, 2016—includes an overview of the event's basic information, statistics and the results of our Insiders Poll. More information can be found in the "Basic Information" tab below.[1]
Basic Information
Date: March 3, 2016
Time: 9:00 pm EDT
Location: Detroit, Michigan
Venue: The Fox Theatre
Sponsors: Fox News
Moderators: Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace
Participants
On March 2, 2016, Ben Carson announced that he would not attend the debate, following the results of the Super Tuesday Republican primary contests. Carson did not win any states on Super Tuesday.[2]
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Statistics
This article analyzes the central themes of the eleventh Republican presidential debate held on March 3, 2016, in Detroit, Michigan. The transcript prepared by The Washington Post was used to measure candidate participation and audience engagement.[3] Footage from the debate was consulted where there were ambiguities in the text.
To compare the statistics of this debate to the previous Republican debate, see the analysis of the CNN Republican debate held on February 25, 2016.
Segments
Including closing statements, this debate featured 24 unique discussion segments covering economic policy, national security and Michigan-specific issues. These discussion segments were measured by any shift in the theme of a discussion prompted by one of the moderators: Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace.
- Mitt Romney's speech against Donald Trump's candidacy
- Marco Rubio's personal attacks against Trump
- Super Tuesday
- Trump's business ventures
- Taxes and the federal deficit
- Federal minimum wage
- Immigration reform and amnesty
- Foreign worker visas
- Ground strategy in Libya
- Ethics of torture and targeting terrorists' families
- Edward Snowden
- Trump's national security advisers
- Trump's policy inconsistencies
- Trump University lawsuits, 2016
- Water crisis in Flint, Michigan
- Public schools in Detroit, Michigan
- Strengthening manufacuturing in the U.S.
- Religious liberty and gay marriage
- Restrictions on the Second Amendment
- Trump's fitness to be commander-in-chief
- Nuclear threat from North Korea
- Vladimir Putin and Russia
- Pledge to support Trump as Republican presidential nominee
- Closing statements
One-third of the discussion segments directly related to Donald Trump's candidacy or professional and ethical qualifications to become president of the United States.
Additionally, several discussion segments were initially framed by Trump's position on the issue, e.g., Trump's populism and performance during Super Tuesday, his endorsement from U.S. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) and immigration reform, and his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S.-Russia relations.[3]
Participants
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Overall participation
Participation in a discussion segment was defined as a substantive comment related to the discussion segment's topic. Jokes and attempts to gain permission from a moderator to speak were not considered participatory speech acts. In some instances, candidates who participated in a discussion segment diverted from the prompted topic.
The median number of discussion segments per candidate was 13. Trump participated in the most at 16, while Kasich only participated in 11.
Candidate participation by behavior
Participation in the debate was also measured by the candidate's behavior at the start of each discussion segment. This study considered whether a candidate was initially prompted by a moderator to speak during a discussion segment or whether he or she independently engaged in the discussion segment by interrupting another candidate or calling on the moderator for permission to speak. A candidate's conduct after they joined a discussion segment was not considered.
Although the candidates frequently talked over each other within each discussion segment, they generally waited until a moderator prompted them to speak before joining the discussion at first. Kasich was the only candidate who attempted to join a discussion segment and failed.
Candidate participation by speaking order
This study also calculated the number of times a candidate spoke first, second, third, or fourth during a discussion segment, whether prompted by a moderator with a question or invitation to rebut or by interjection.
The moderators called on Trump first or second in approximately half of the discussion segments.
Candidate participation by speaking time
According to speaking time estimates from NPR, Trump spoke the longest, registering 26.7 minutes on the clock. This was nearly double the amount of time Rubio and Kasich were given.[4]
Candidate participation by speaking rate
Each candidate's speaking rate was calculated by dividing the total word count of the candidate's speech during the debate with his speaking time as measured by NPR. As in previous debates, Rubio spoke significantly quicker than his peers at 245 words per minute.
Candidate participation by segment vs. speaking time
The amount of time a candidate spoke did not necessarily align with the number of issues he covered during the debate. In this debate, Trump dominated in both speaking time and the number of discussion segments he participated in. Rubio, although he spoke less than any other candidate, had more subject-based engagement than Kasich.
Audience engagement
Audience engagement was measured by noting applause, cheering, or laughter in The Washington Post's transcript. Footage from the debate was consulted when the text was ambiguous about to whom the audience was responding.
Once again, Trump had the most positive live audience engagement. He registered 26 instances, approximately 60 percent more than each of his rivals.
The discussion segments on the results of the Super Tuesday presidential primaries and Trump's policy inconsistencies produced the most live audience engagement overall.
Candidate analysis
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Ballotpedia's Insiders Poll
Kasich Connects
March 4, 2016
By James A. Barnes
In a brawling and at one point bawdy debate, Ohio Gov. John Kasich finally connected with Republicans who have tended to dismiss his presidential bid. Ballotpedia surveyed more than 110 Republican and Democratic strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest groups operatives on the debate in Detroit hosted by Fox News and a plurality of the 72 GOP Insiders who responded said Kasich was the “biggest winner” of the debate.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio spent much of the evening reprising their criticisms of the Republican frontrunner, billionaire developer and former television reality show star Donald Trump. For their efforts about a quarter of the GOP Insiders thought each one had the best night.
Kasich’s blue ribbon is noteworthy because it’s the first time he has scored so well on a debate with Republican Political Insiders. Much of Kasich’s success can be attributed to what he didn’t say or do on stage—attack and insult his GOP rivals. “The only one not in the clown car,” said one GOP Insider of Kasich. “Three kids in a sandbox and one adult,” declared another. “He didn't get hit with anything and looked reasonable, like a Dad breaking up a pillow fight,” added another. The survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from Insiders.
Republican Insiders were repelled by the tenor of the debate that was set by the GOP candidates who lead Kasich in the polls. “The other three were just ridiculous tonight,” observed one GOP Insider. “What a mess that was.” Another echoed, “Kasich won by not agreeing to be a part of the Jerry Springer show which preempted a Republican debate.” Added a third, “Kasich talked about real issues and solutions while Trump, Rubio and Cruz wrestled in the mud.”
Runner-up Rubio and Cruz won some plaudits as well. “Rubio has hit his stride; Kasich looks and acts the adult,” said one GOP Insider. Cruz “killed it,” said another. He was “the only one who spoke in paragraphs,” maintained one GOP Insider.
Democratic Insiders also gave Kasich the nod in the Detroit debate. “I think he held his own without devolving into the scrum,” said one Democratic Insider. “Strange to say he was the winner when he got so little time, but everyone else really seemed to hurt himself,” added another Democrat.
But Democrats also wondered how much of a reward the Ohioan could reap for his effort. “Kasich won the debate but his very low starting point and his soundbite-less rationale responses limit the outcome for him,” observed one Democrat. “He has had the best night in every debate, but he’s not where the Republican electorate is,” explained another.
Trump may not win any debates at Oxford, but in presidential politics if you’re the frontrunner and you emerge from a candidate face-off with only a few bruises, you’ve had a good night. “Until the polls change, Trump wins,” said one Democrat succinctly. “He once again kept his feet despite being hit with round houses.”
Some Republicans Insiders concurred with their Democratic counterparts. “Closest of all the debates,” judged one GOP Insider. “I thought it was a four-way tie, so Trump wins.” Another said, “Trump held his own. His challengers looked like two kids and a curmudgeon.” And third Republican who thought Trump did well opined; “Nothing happened that will change the course of events so the real winner was HRC.”
In a separate question on whether the candidates had helped or hurt themselves in the debate, three-in-five of the Republican Insiders said Kasich had helped himself, half said Cruz and two-in-five said Rubio had been helped. Here, Trump was judged harshly: nearly two-thirds of the GOP Insiders said Trump had hurt himself with his performance.
“Amazingly Trump took hits in the debate like someone fighting Mike Tyson early in his career,” said one GOP Insider. “The difference is he would never lay down.”
One of those throwing punches was Rubio, but some Insiders felt he may not have been well served by playing the aggressor. “It was a thankless task for Rubio to take down Trump several notches,” observed one GOP Insider. “He succeeded but splattered mud on himself too.” Another echoed, “Rubio may feel like he has to take Donald down but he's going down with him.” And a third said, "At this point I don't think voters want to see a verbal food fight. Kasich and Cruz truly stood out."
The challenge for Kasich is capitalizing on his best debate performance with dwindling prospects to score a primary or caucus victory and less than two weeks to go before his home state’s nominating contest. “Tonight the adult on the stage won the night,” maintained one Republican Insider. “Issue command, presence, optimism; it may be late, but it is not too late.” Another GOP Insider averred, “Kasich grows on you, but it is too little, too late.”
Other Political Insiders acknowledged that their opinions on this unprecedented presidential campaign are hardly infallible. “I thought Trump self–destructed, but this year, what do I know?” asked one Republican influential.
One thing many Republicans agreed on, the Detroit debate wasn’t very presidential. “So we are reduced to this?” asked one GOP Insider. “My party is reduced to a locker room chat about the size of a penis. Really?” One GOP recalled while watching the debate, “My wife looked at me and said, ‘This is an embarrassment.’ I think that pretty much sums it up. Bright moments for each candidate that were lost amid the continued drone of schoolyard taunts.” Another just lamented, “We are a clown car and it is being driven off the cliff at an alarming speed.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted February 25-26.
Republican Debate Schedule
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See also
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
Footnotes
- ↑ Mediaite, "Fox News Announces Details for Upcoming GOP Debate in March," February 4, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Carson says he sees no 'political path' to GOP nomination," March 2, 2016
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 The Washington Post, "The Fox News GOP debate transcript, annotated," March 3, 2016
- ↑ NPR, "On The Clock: Trump Still Gets The Most Talking Time," March 4, 2016
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