California's 45th Congressional District election, 2024
Derek Tran (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel (R) in the general election for California's 45th Congressional District on Nov. 5, 2024. Click here for detailed results. Steel was one of 15 incumbents who lost their re-election campaigns to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024. Additionally, this was one of 19 seats that changed partisan control due to the 2024 U.S. House of Representatives elections.
California's 45th was one of 19 U.S. House districts that Joe Biden (D) won in 2020 and had a Republican incumbent in 2024. That year, Biden defeated Donald Trump (R) 52.1%–46.0% in the 2024 configuration of the 45th district. In 2022, Steel won re-election 52.4%–47.6% over Jay Chen (D). In the 2022 gubernatorial election, Brian Dahle (R) defeated Gavin Newsom (D) 51.0%–49.0% in the 45th District.[1] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee listed the district as a target for 2024.
Before the election, four major election forecasters each rated the general election a toss-up.
Steel was first elected in 2020 after serving on the Orange County Board of Supervisors and the California Board of Equalization. Steel said she had "worked tirelessly to push back against reckless spending policies that are driving nationwide inflation from Washington and I have been committed to standing up to Communist China and standing with our democratic allies abroad."[2]
Tran was, at the time of the election, a U.S. Army veteran and consumer rights attorney. Tran said he aimed "to put people ahead of politics, protect our democracy, and ensure everyone, no matter what neighborhood they come from has the opportunity to succeed without fear of their freedoms being taken away."[3] The Los Angeles Times endorsed Tran on September 9, 2024.[4]
Based on post-general election reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Steel raised $10.7 million and spent $10.1 million and Tran raised $6.46 million and spent $5.79 million. To review all the campaign finance figures in full detail, click here.
The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. All 435 House districts were up for election.
At the time of the election, Republicans held a 220-212 majority with three vacancies.[5] As a result of the election, Republicans retained control of the U.S. House, winning 220 seats to Democrats' 215.[6] To read more about the 2024 U.S. House elections, click here.
In the 2022 election in this district, the Republican candidate won 52.4%-47.6%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have defeated Donald Trump (R) 52.1%-46.0%.[7]
California's 45th Congressional District was one of 34 congressional districts with a Republican incumbent or an open seat that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) targeted in 2024. To read about DCCC targeting initiatives, click here. For a complete list of DCCC targeted districts, click here.
For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 45
Derek Tran defeated incumbent Michelle Steel in the general election for U.S. House California District 45 on November 5, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Derek Tran (D) | 50.1 | 158,264 | |
| Michelle Steel (R) | 49.9 | 157,611 | ||
| Total votes: 315,875 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 45
Incumbent Michelle Steel and Derek Tran defeated Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, Cheyenne Hunt, and Aditya Pai in the primary for U.S. House California District 45 on March 5, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Michelle Steel (R) | 54.9 | 78,022 | |
| ✔ | Derek Tran (D) | 15.9 | 22,546 | |
| Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D) | 15.6 | 22,179 | ||
| Cheyenne Hunt (D) | 8.4 | 11,973 | ||
| Aditya Pai (D) | 5.2 | 7,399 | ||
| Total votes: 142,119 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Jimmy Pham (D)
Voting information
- See also: Voting in California
Candidate comparison
Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: Yes
Political Office:
- U.S. House California (Assumed office: 2021)
- Orange County Board of Supervisors (2015–2020)
- California Board of Equalization (2007–2015)
Biography: Steel obtained a bachelor's degree from Pepperdine University and a master's in business administration from the University of California, Los Angeles. Steel worked as a businesswoman before entering elected politics.
Show sources
Sources: Michelle Steel 2024 campaign website, "Home page," accessed June 17, 2024; Michelle Steel 2024 campaign website, "Meet Michelle," accessed June 17, 2024; Michelle Steel 2024 campaign website, "Accomplishments," accessed June 17, 2024; Michelle Steel 2024 campaign website, "On The Issues," accessed June 17, 2024; Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, "STEEL, Michelle," accessed June 17, 2024
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 45 in 2024.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "Derek Tran is an Army Veteran, Consumer Rights Attorney, City Commissioner, and Small Business Owner who is running for Congress to fight for Californians, not corporations in Congress. Derek is the son of refugees. His parents fled the Communist regime in Vietnam so that their children could realize the American Dream in Southern California. Through hard work and sacrifice, Derek’s family opened a corner market where Derek worked every day after school. At the age of 18, Derek enlisted in the Army to give back to the country that had given him and his family so much. After the military, Derek went to law school to uphold the liberties, individual rights, and rule of law that his parents immigrated to America for. While corporations are raking in record profits and customers are paying more for basic goods and services, Derek holds bad actors accountable, ensuring that workers, immigrants, and survivors of sexual harassment get the justice they deserve. Derek serves as a Traffic Commissioner, sits on the board of Consumers of Attorneys of California and mentors at-risk youth. Derek and his wife Michelle, a pharmacist, own a small pharmacy together, and have three children in public school."
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 45 in 2024.
Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses
Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.
Survey responses from candidates in this race
Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.
Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.
| Collapse all
Derek Tran (D)
Honoring Our Veterans And Military Families
Protecting Individual Rights, Personal Freedoms, And The Right To Choose
Derek Tran (D)
Campaign advertisements
This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.
Michelle Steel
Ballotpedia did not come across any campaign ads for Michelle Steel while conducting research on this election. If you are aware of any ads that should be included, please email us.
Derek Tran
| June 3, 2024 |
| January 29, 2024 |
View more ads here:
Election competitiveness
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[8] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[9] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.
Below we provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation. We only report polls for which we can find a margin of error or credibility interval.
| California's 45th Congressional District election, 2024: general election polls | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Date | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size[10] | Sponsor[11] | ||
| Tulchin Research | May 23 – Jun. 2, 2024 | 42% | 41% | 17% | ±4.0% | 600 LV | Derek Tran campaign |
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[12]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[13][14][15]
| Race ratings: California's 45th Congressional District election, 2024 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 5, 2024 | October 29, 2024 | October 22, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
| Decision Desk HQ and The Hill | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Republican | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. | |||||||||
Endorsements
Click the links below to see official endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites for any candidates that make that information available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.
Election spending
Campaign finance
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Steel | Republican Party | $10,730,107 | $10,283,183 | $903,461 | As of December 31, 2024 |
| Cheyenne Hunt | Democratic Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Kim Nguyen-Penaloza | Democratic Party | $366,569 | $357,787 | $8,782 | As of December 31, 2024 |
| Aditya Pai | Democratic Party | $305,312 | $280,052 | $1,692 | As of December 31, 2024 |
| Derek Tran | Democratic Party | $6,514,136 | $6,186,813 | $327,323 | As of December 31, 2024 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Satellite spending
- See also: Satellite spending
Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[16][17]
If available, satellite spending reports by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and OpenSecrets.org are linked below. FEC links include totals from monthly, quarterly, and semi-annual reports. OpenSecrets.org compiles data from those reports as well as 24- and 48-hour reports from the FEC.[18]
Details about satellite spending of significant amounts and/or reported by media are included below those links. The amounts listed may not represent the total satellite spending in the election. To notify us of additional satellite spending, email us.
| By candidate | By election |
|---|---|
District analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.
- District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
- Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
- State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.
This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in California.
| California U.S. House primary competitiveness, 2014-2024 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||||
| 2024 | 52 | 52 | 7 | 241 | 52 | 42 | 80.8% | 36 | 80.0% | |||||
| 2022 | 52 | 52 | 5 | 272 | 52 | 52 | 100.0% | 47 | 100.0% | |||||
| 2020 | 53 | 53 | 4 | 262 | 53 | 47 | 88.7% | 32 | 64.0% | |||||
| 2018 | 53 | 53 | 2 | 244 | 53 | 41 | 77.4% | 39 | 76.5% | |||||
| 2016 | 53 | 53 | 4 | 202 | 53 | 40 | 75.5% | 36 | 73.5% | |||||
| 2014 | 53 | 53 | 6 | 209 | 53 | 38 | 71.7% | 32 | 68.1% | |||||
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in California in 2024. Information below was calculated on 1/16/2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
Two-hundred forty-one candidates filed to run for California's 52 U.S. House districts in 2024, including 125 Democrats, 88 Republicans, and 28 independent or minor party candidates. That’s 4.63 candidates per district. In 2022, the first election after the number of congressional districts in California decreased from 53 to 52 following the 2020 census, 5.2 candidates filed per district. In 2020, when the state still had 53 Congressional districts, 4.94 candidates filed per district. In 2018, 4.6 candidates filed.
The 241 candidates who ran in California in 2024 were the fewest total number of candidates since 2016, when 202 candidates ran. Forty-five incumbents—34 Democrats and 11 Republicans—ran for re-election. That was fewer than in 2022, when 47 incumbents ran. Six districts were open, one more than in 2022, and the most since 2014, when six districts were also open.
2020
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 45
Incumbent Katie Porter defeated Greg Raths in the general election for U.S. House California District 45 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Katie Porter (D) | 53.5 | 221,843 | |
| Greg Raths (R) | 46.5 | 193,096 | ||
| Total votes: 414,939 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 45
The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 45 on March 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Katie Porter (D) | 50.8 | 112,986 | |
| ✔ | Greg Raths (R) | 17.9 | 39,942 | |
| Don Sedgwick (R) | 12.8 | 28,465 | ||
| Peggy Huang (R) | 11.1 | 24,780 | ||
| Lisa Sparks (R) | 4.0 | 8,861 | ||
| Christopher Gonzales (R) | 2.4 | 5,443 | ||
| Rhonda Furin (R) | 1.0 | 2,140 | ||
| Total votes: 222,617 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Brian Forde (D)
- Julie Proctor (R)
- Mimi Walters (R)
- Brenton Woolworth (R)
- Ray Gennawey (R)
- Aditya Pai (D)
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 45
Katie Porter defeated incumbent Mimi Walters in the general election for U.S. House California District 45 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Katie Porter (D) | 52.1 | 158,906 | |
| Mimi Walters (R) | 47.9 | 146,383 | ||
| Total votes: 305,289 (100.00% precincts reporting) | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 45
The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 45 on June 5, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Mimi Walters (R) | 51.7 | 86,764 | |
| ✔ | Katie Porter (D) | 20.3 | 34,078 | |
| Dave Min (D) | 17.8 | 29,979 | ||
| Brian Forde (D) | 6.0 | 10,107 | ||
| John Graham (Independent) | 2.3 | 3,817 | ||
| Kia Hamadanchy (D) | 1.9 | 3,212 | ||
| Total votes: 167,957 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Greg Ramsay (D)
- Eric Rywalski (D)
- Ron Varasteh (D)
Republican-held U.S. House district that Biden won
This is one of 19 U.S. House districts Republicans were defending that President Joe Biden (D) won in 2020. The map below highlights those districts. Hover over or click a district to see information such as the incumbent and the presidential vote counts.
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Congressional Districts for Governor," accessed June 18, 2024
- ↑ Michelle Steel 2024 campaign website, "Home page," accessed June 18, 2024
- ↑ Derek Tran 2024 campaign website, "Home page," accessed June 18, 2024
- ↑ Los Angeles Times, "Endorsement: Derek Tran for the 45th Congressional District," September 9, 2024
- ↑ A majority in the U.S. House when there are no vacancies is 218 seats.
- ↑ These figures include the seat of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who resigned on Nov. 13, 2024, after winning re-election.
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
- ↑ For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
- ↑ Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
- ↑ RV=Registered Voters
LV=Likely Voters - ↑ The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ Amee LaTour, Email correspondence with the Center for Responsive Politics, August 5, 2022
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed January 10, 2024
- ↑ Inside Elections, "Methodology: Inside Elections’ Baseline by Congressional District," December 8, 2023
- ↑ Progressive Party
- ↑ 2,000 signatures can be provided in lieu of the filing fee
| |||||||||||