Arizona's 8th Congressional District special election, 2018

Elections in Arizona, 2018

• General election: Nov. 6
• Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
• Early voting: Oct. 10 - Nov. 2
• Absentee voting deadline: Postmark Nov. 6

• Online registration: Yes
• Same-day registration: No
• Voter ID: Non-photo ID
• Poll times: 6:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

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2018 → ← 2016
Arizona's 8th Congressional District special
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: January 10, 2018
Primary: February 27, 2018 General: April 24, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Vacant Election winner: Debbie Lesko (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican Inside Elections: Likely Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 8th (special) Arizona elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

Former state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R) defeated physician Hiral Tipirneni (D) in the April 24, 2018 special election to fill the seat left vacant by incumbent Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.).

The district is Republican-leaning, having backed the Republican presidential nominee by 20 points or more in the three prior election cycles.

After Democrat Conor Lamb's victory in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District special election in March, the National Republican Congressional Committee, Congressional Leadership Fund, and Republican National Committee each launched six-figure media or voter outreach campaigns to support Lesko’s bid. Republican groups spent nearly $900,000 in total a week before the election.

Unlike two polls in March and April that found Lesko up by double digits, an Emerson College poll released on April 16, 2018, showed a tighter race. Tipirneni led Lesko within the margin of error, 46 percent to 45 percent.

Tipirneni also outraised Lesko between February 8 and April 4, 2018, with $434,000 in contributions to Lesko's $367,000.

Voters who prioritized education or healthcare supported Tipirneni by more than 40 percentage points, according to the Emerson College poll. Lesko was the favorite by a margin of nearly 70 points for voters concerned most with immigration.

This page covered the general election.

• Click here to find election results for the Democratic Party primary election.
• Click here to find election results for the Republican Party primary election.

Candidates and election results

Special election

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 Special Election, 2018
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Debbie Lesko	52.61%	91,390
	Democratic	Hiral Tipirneni	47.39%	82,318
Total Votes (100% reporting (143 of 143 precincts))				173,708
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

Democratic primary election

Hiral Tipirneni defeated Brianna Westbrook in the Democratic primary for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District.

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 Democratic Primary, 2018
Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Hiral Tipirneni	59.62%	21,703
Brianna Westbrook	40.38%	14,701
Total Votes (100% reporting (143 of 143 precincts))		36,404
Source: The New York Times

Republican primary election

Debbie Lesko defeated 11 other candidates in the Republican primary for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District with 36 percent support.

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 Republican Primary, 2018
Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Debbie Lesko	35.77%	25,508
Phil Lovas	23.88%	17,031
Steve B. Montenegro	23.82%	16,987
Bob Stump	5.37%	3,832
Clair Van Steenwyk	2.37%	1,692
Chris Sylvester	1.92%	1,370
David Lien	1.77%	1,261
Richard Mack	1.42%	1,014
Mark Yates	1.12%	799
Chad Allen	1.05%	747
Brenden Dilley	1.03%	734
Stephen Dolgos	0.48%	345
Total Votes (100% reporting (143 of 143 precincts))		71,320
Source: The New York Times

Candidate profiles

Hiral Tipirneni (D)

Tipirneni has worked as an emergency room physician and cancer research advocate for more than 20 years. She also served on the board of directors of the Maricopa Health Foundation, which supports the county’s public healthcare delivery system, and as the chief resident of the University of Michigan’s Emergency Medicine program.

"I’m not a career politician, but I’ve successfully worked with people from all walks of life and I promise to bring that team-oriented approach to working with Republicans and Democrats alike to get the results we need,” she said when she entered the race.

Her campaign website listed expanding Medicaid, simplifying the tax code, improving care for veterans, and greater investment in public schools as some of her policy priorities.

Debbie Lesko (R)

Lesko is a former member of the Arizona State Senate, representing District 21 from 2015 to 2018. She served as president pro tempore from 2017 to 2018, before resigning her seat on January 8, 2018, to focus on her U.S. House campaign. She also served in the Arizona House of Representatives, representing District 21 from 2009 to 2015. She is Arizona state chairman for ALEC (American Legislative Exchange Council).

"I have a track record of taking on big, important issues that other people won't take on and getting them done. None of the other candidates can say they have that track record," she said when announcing her candidacy. She was endorsed by the Susan B. Anthony List.

Investing in national security initiatives, including a missile defense system, protecting border security through some physical barriers and improved technology, and simplifying the tax code were listed as policy priorities on her campaign website.

Analysis of election outcome

Analysis of Lesko's win focused on whether her single-digit margin of victory in a Republican stronghold had implications for other races in 2018. Political commentators discussed the messaging of each candidate, the demographics of the region, and how to interpret Lesko's victory in the context of other congressional special elections.

Campaign strategy

• Jack Crowe, National Review: "Lesko, 59, ran as a staunch supporter of the president’s agenda and utilized the contributions from national organizations to launch attack ads casting her opponent as Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s potential lackey, despite Tipirneni’s efforts to present as a moderate.

Tiperneni’s ability to counter Lesko’s messaging with her own outside support collapsed after a local tv station revealed she had not practiced medicine since 2007 and had settled a malpractice suit.

In addition to generous spending by the Republican National Committee and other groups, Lesko was pushed over the line by robocalls from Trump, House Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy."

• Jonathan Martin, The New York Times: "Ms. Tipirneni, 50, found energetic support among some women in the district who were uneasy about Mr. Trump and had been roused to get active in politics. As Representative Conor Lamb of Pennsylvania did in a special election last month, she offered herself as a moderate who would not support Ms. Pelosi for House speaker.

But unlike Mr. Lamb’s Pittsburgh-area seat — which includes an array of vote-rich, upscale suburbs — the Arizona district is full of AARP-eligible snowbirds, reliably Republican Mormons and military families who work at nearby Luke Air Force Base. And this race was a head-to-head contest — there was no Libertarian on the ballot, as in Pennsylvania, who could have allowed Ms. Tipirneni to eke out a win had it proved closer.

This was not a district that was on either party’s list of seats that will determine control of the House. But the steps conservatives took to secure victory for a former officeholder illustrate just how much the anti-Trump energy on the left is putting Republicans on the defensive across the country."

• Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: "One might describe Arizona’s 8th Congressional District as … nondescript. Covering portions of Phoenix’s northern and western suburbs, including the Arizona Cardinals’ home stadium, the district isn’t all that geographically or demographically distinct, containing a largely older, largely white population of professionals and retirees. The area has traditionally been extremely Republican, having voted for John McCain by 22 points in 2008, Mitt Romney by 25 points in 2012, and President Trump by 21 points in 2016. It has a growing number of Hispanics, but Hispanics make up a considerably smaller share of the voting population than of its population overall.

Nor was there anything especially unusual about the candidates who competed in the special election there on Tuesday — Republican Debbie Lesko, a state senator, and Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, a doctor. Each won their respective primaries by solid-but-not-overwhelming margins, and each raised about the same amount of money for their general election campaigns. They’re competent, uncontroversial candidates who are representative of the sorts of people who will be nominated throughout the country in the midterms this November. ...

The silver lining for Republicans isn’t that Lesko won. If Republicans are winning by only 5 points in this sort of extremely red district in November, dozens of more competitive seats will flop to Democrats — more than enough for them to take the House. Rather, the 'good' news is that Republicans have endured lots of this sort of bad news already."

Implications for other 2018 elections

• David Byler, The Weekly Standard: "The right response to this data is not to try to find some campaign storyline or idiosyncratic feature of Arizona that explains away the GOP underperformance. If you look hard enough at any special election, you’ll find a reason to disregard the results. The right approach to is throw the result into an average. And in Trump Era House, Senate and state legislative special elections Republican candidates have underperformed Trump by about 12 points on average. If you confine that to just House special elections and add in the Arizona result (and drop the California special where two Democrats moved on to the runoff), you see a roughly 11 point GOP underperformance. ...

But the bottom line in this special election is the same as in other recent special elections. President Trump is unpopular, and he’s been a drag on down-ballot Republicans in many important Trump Era special elections. Lesko managed to hold onto this seat, but Trump’s unpopularity is a big threat to the Republican House majority."

• Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor from Arizona: "These election results are a wake up call to Republicans in Arizona and nationally. ... Winning the Arizona 8th by such a small margin portends very little margin of error for Gov. Doug Ducey and the eventual Arizona Republican Senate nominee this fall."

• Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.): "It’s a warning shot. Anything below a 10-point margin is not good news.”

• Rodd McLeod, a Democratic consultant in Arizona: "If Hiral did 15 points better than Hillary Clinton, then add 15 points to every Democrat running on the ballot this year."

Campaign advertisements

Hiral Tipirneni

Support

"Progress" - Tipirneni campaign ad, released April 17, 2018

"Hiral on Our Side" - Tipirneni campaign ad, released April 3, 2018

Debbie Lesko

Support

"Build the Wall" - Lesko campaign ad, released January 24, 2018

Oppose

"Politician Debbie Lesko" - Tipirneni campaign ad, released March 13, 2018

Race ratings

Race ratings: Arizona's 8th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker	Race ratings
	October 30, 2018	October 23, 2018	October 16, 2018	October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely Republican	Safe Republican	Safe Republican	Safe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Arizona's 8th Congressional District special election, 2018
Poll	Lesko (R)	Tipirneni (D)	Undecided/Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size
Lake Research Partners (commissioned by Tipirneni) April 14-16, 2018	46%	46%	8%	+/-4.9	408 registered voters
Emerson College April 12-15, 2018	45%	46%	9%	+/-5.2	400 likely voters
OH Predictive Insights April 11, 2018	53%	43%	4%	+/-4.4	500 likely voters
Lake Research Partners (commissioned by Tipirneni) March 3-6, 2018	48%	34%	18%	+/-N/A	400 likely voters
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Satellite spending

• Congressional Leadership Fund: Politico reported that the Congressional Leadership Fund was expected to spend $100,000 on digital and phone get-out-the-vote outreach.

• National Republican Congressional Committee: The NRCC made a $170,000 television ad buy in coordination with the Lesko campaign.

• Republican National Committee: On March 23, 2018, the committee spent $281,250 on door-to-door canvassing in the district to support Debbie Lesko.

Candidate forums and debates

12 News Debate, Sunday Square Off, March 2018

PBS Horizon, March 2018

Campaign themes and policy stances

Campaign themes

This section highlights topics that each candidate emphasized during the campaign. They are generally taken verbatim from the candidate, but may also be collected from newspaper profiles, candidate forums, media interviews, voter guides, candidate survey responses, and candidate YouTube videos.

Hiral Tipirneni

“	HEALTH CARE Expanding Medicare to allow anyone to buy into the system is a great place to start so that access to affordable, quality care that covers pre-existing conditions is guaranteed. Also, any health care proposal that levies an age tax on older Americans must be stopped. ECONOMY Our federal tax code, particularly for families and small businesses, must be simplified. We must expand workforce training programs so businesses, large and small, can bring good-paying jobs to our communities. We must also find a way to ensure access to affordable childcare so that families can get ahead. RETIREMENT SECURITY AND VETERANS Congress must protect the Social Security and Medicare benefits that retirees have worked a lifetime to earn. The VA (U.S. Dept. of Veterans Affairs) must be held accountable to reduce wait times and improve care for all our veterans. EDUCATION Opportunities for our children must be strengthened by investing in quality public schools. Furthermore, both traditional college and trade education must be more affordable to reduce the burden of student loan debt. GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY Protecting taxpayers’ hard-earned dollars is key to helping keep government accountable to the people, and that includes reducing the influence of Washington special interests that work against the public interest. Congress should also continue to increase transparency, and prevent members of Congress from wasting tax dollars on personal benefits like first-class airfare. IMMIGRATION & BORDER SECURITY We ALL deserve an accountable immigration system providing a clear, affordable path to citizenship for those who qualify and have earned it. We also need secure borders. These two ideas area not mutually exclusive, and money for “the wall” would be better spent on other border security measures. 2nd AMENDMENT RIGHTS I support Second Amendment rights overall for law-abiding Americans to obtain firearms through legal channels to protect their homes, themselves and their families, and for hunting and sport. America is the only industrialized nation with our degree of gun violence, and we should address it as a public health issue. The U.S. has a history of using data-driven policies to make us safer – seat belts, child car seats, airbags. We must find a path for both the 2nd Amendment and commonsense gun safety reform. WOMEN’S REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS I fervently believe our elected representatives should support policies reflecting clearly established women’s reproductive health rights. In short, abortions should stay safe, legal, and rare. And, for the record, no one is “pro-abortion” – one is essentially either pro-choice or anti-choice.	”
—Hiral Tipirneni for Congress

Debbie Lesko

“	National Security I am committed to making sure our soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines have the best equipment in the world as we continue to win the war against ISIS. This means we must continue to protect the F-35 and Luke Air Force Base. We also need to continue investing in missile defense so that insane madmen like Kim Jung Un cannot threaten our country with nuclear attack. We must also expand Cyber Command to protect our infrastructure and we must ensure our intelligence assets have the tools they need to continue to defeat terrorists. Border Security We must secure our border, period. Some sections need a physical barrier like the wall, and other parts require technology and more manpower. I am committed to working with President Trump to making this a reality. Education I believe education is about empowering parents to make the right choices for their children and their families. That's why I believe the federal government needs to get out of the way of decisions made at the local level. I will support federal block grants back to states so that we in Arizona can continue to decide how best to spend our money - not bureaucrats in Washington. Taxes and Regulations I have never seen a tax I didn't want to cut and have a proud record of voting for common sense tax reforms. The newly passed tax reform package from Congress doesn't go far enough. We need a reformed tax code that allows citizens to fill out their tax returns on a postcard. I will push for this tax simplification. We also have too many regulations that put the needs of special interests over common sense and I will work with the President to protect jobs and end the reign of bureaucratic controls through regulations. National Debt President Obama was a tax-and-spend liberal and in his short reign he accumulated more debt than all previous Presidents combined. This is outrageous. In Congress I will fight for a balanced budget, to end budget gimmicks, and to rein in spending that both parties have let get out of control. If that means I have to tell Speaker Ryan no, then that's exactly what I will do. No more burdening the generations that come after us with massive debts. The time to tackle this is now. Pro-Life & Pro-Family I'm so proud of my record in the legislature that upheld the sanctity of life and protected the unborn. I'm a strong believer that life begins at conception and we must protect the most vulnerable among us. Because of my strong pro-life record, I am the only CD8 candidate to be endorsed by the Susan B. Anthony List, a important national pro-life organization and I have consistently been endorsed by Arizona Right to Life, have a 100% rating with the Center for Arizona Policy and been named "Friend of the Family" by the Arizona Family Project. As your next representative in Congress, I will vigorously support the principles of life and vote to prohibit any federal funding for abortion or infanticide. Second Amendment There is a reason why our Founding Fathers found it necessary to make the Second Amendment to our Constitution the right to keep and bear arms. This is a principle rooted in our Republic whereby we are a government of the people, by the people and for the people. But the right to own firearms is more than just a check on tyranny; it is a fundamental right that free citizens be allowed to protect and defend themselves. In the AZ legislature I have a strong track record of defending the 2nd amendment and protecting gun rights. I have consistently been endorsed by the NRA and I am a member of both the NRA and Arizona Citizens Defense League. In Congress, I will continue to strongly support legislation that protects our Second Amendment and protects our citizens from reckless and irresponsible legislation that attempts to undermine this precious civil right.	”
—Debbie Lesko for Congress

Timeline

• April 17, 2018: Tipirneni released her final campaign ad presenting Lesko as "more of the same" in Washington, D.C. The ad also highlighted her primary endorsement from The Arizona Republic, where the editorial board wrote, "Tipirneni could cut through the vitriol in Congress."
• April 13, 2018: Tipirneni outraised Lesko between February 8 and April 4, 2018, with $434,000 in contributions to Lesko's $367,000.
• April 12, 2018: An OH Predictive Insights poll showed Lesko leading Tipirneni by 10 points, 53 percent to 43 percent.
• April 10, 2018: The National Republican Congressional Committee spent an additional $250,000 on an ad campaign that does not mention Tipirneni but criticizes Democratic policies. The spot ends with Lesko saying she will "block socialized healthcare."
• April 5, 2018: The nonprofit group, Tax March, spent $500,000 on ads in the Phoenix media market criticizing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The ads began airing around tax day on April 17.
• April 3, 2018: The Tipirneni campaign released an ad questioning Lesko's ethics and introducing Tipirneni as a physician and problem solver.
• March 26, 2018: The National Republican Congressional Committee made a $170,000 television ad buy in coordination with the Lesko campaign. The Congressional Leadership Fund was expected to spend $100,000 on digital and phone get-out-the-vote outreach.
• March 23, 2018: The Republican National Committee spent $281,250 on door-to-door canvassing in the district to support Debbie Lesko.

Primary election

Primary election candidates

The candidate list below is based on an official list provided by the Arizona Secretary of State website on January 10, 2018. The filing deadline for the February primary was on January 10, 2018.

 Democratic primary candidates

• Hiral Tipirneni ✔
• Brianna Westbrook

 Republican primary candidates

• Debbie Lesko (Incumbent) ✔ 
• Chad Allen
• Brenden Dilley
• Stephen Dolgos
• David Lien
• Phil Lovas
• Richard Mack
• Steve Montenegro
• Clair Van Steenwyk
• Bob Stump
• Christopher Sylvester
• Mark Yates

Did not make the ballot:

• Kevin Cavanaugh

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= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Primary election endorsements

Republican primary

The table below summarizes the endorsements Ballotpedia identified for the top Republican candidates in the primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District.

Most recent endorsement: Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) endorsed Lesko on February 6, 2018.

Do you know of an official or organization that endorsed a candidate in this race? Let Ballotpedia know by email at editor@ballotpedia.org.

Republican candidate endorsements
Endorsement	Date	Lesko	Lovas	Montenegro
Federal officials
U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.)	February 6, 2018	✔
U.S. Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.)	January 22, 2018	✔
U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio)	January 19, 2018	✔
U.S. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa)	January 17, 2018			✔
Former U.S. Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.)	January 15, 2018			✔
Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.)	January 10, 2018			✔
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)	December 28, 2017			✔
U.S. Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.)	December 21, 2017			✔
State officials
Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R)	January 30, 2018	✔
Arizona Treasurer Jeff DeWit (R)	January 25, 2018		✔
Local officials
Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R)	December 21, 2017			✔
Organizations
House Freedom Fund	January 31, 2018	✔
Susan B. Anthony List	January 12, 2018	✔
Newspapers
Arizona Republic	February 5, 2018	✔

Special elections to the 115th U.S. Congress

See also: Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)

In the 17 special elections called to fill vacancies in the 115th Congress in 2017 and 2018, nine Republicans and eight Democrats won. Four elections resulted in a partisan flip:

• Doug Jones (D), U.S. Senate in Alabama;
• Conor Lamb (D), Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District;
• Mary Gay Scanlon (D), Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District; and
• Susan Wild (D), Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District.

Results of special elections to the 115th Congress
Race	Election date	Incumbent	Winner	Election MOV	Previous election MOV	2016 Presidential election MOV
Kansas' 4th Congressional District	April 11, 2017	Mike Pompeo	Ron Estes	R+6	R+31	R+27
Montana's At-Large Congressional District	May 25, 2017	Ryan Zinke	Greg Gianforte	R+6	R+15	R+21
California's 34th Congressional District	June 6, 2017	Xavier Becerra	Jimmy Gomez	D+18	D+54	D+73
Georgia's 6th Congressional District	June 20, 2017	Tom Price	Karen Handel	R+4	R+24	R+1
South Carolina's 5th Congressional District	June 20, 2017	Mick Mulvaney	Ralph Norman	R+3	R+20	R+18
Utah's 3rd Congressional District	November 7, 2017	Jason Chaffetz	John Curtis	R+32	R+47	R+24
U.S. Senate in Alabama	December 12, 2017	Jeff Sessions	Doug Jones	D+2	R+28	R+28
Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District	March 13, 2018	Tim Murphy	Conor Lamb	D+0	R+100	R+19
Arizona's 8th Congressional District	April 24, 2018	Trent Franks	Debbie Lesko	R+6	R+38	R+21
Texas' 27th Congressional District	June 30, 2018	Blake Farenthold	Michael Cloud	R+23	R+24	R+23
Ohio's 12th Congressional District	August 7, 2018	Patrick Tiberi	Troy Balderson	R+1	R+40	R+11
Michigan's 13th Congressional District	November 6, 2018	John Conyers Jr.	Brenda Jones	D+78	D+61	D+61
U.S. Senate in Minnesota	November 6, 2018	Al Franken	Tina Smith	D+11	D+10	D+2
U.S. Senate in Mississippi	November 6, 2018	Thad Cochran	Cindy Hyde-Smith	R+8	R+22	R+18
New York's 25th Congressional District	November 6, 2018	Louise Slaughter	Joseph Morelle	D+16	D+12	D+16
Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District	November 6, 2018	Patrick Meehan	Mary Gay Scanlon	D+6	R+19	D+2
Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District	November 6, 2018	Charlie Dent	Susan Wild	D+0	R+20	R+8

2016

See also: Arizona's 8th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Trent Franks (R) defeated Mark Salazar (G) and write-in candidate Joe DeVivo (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Franks defeated Clair Van Steenwyk in the Republican primary on August 30, 2016.

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2016

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Trent Franks Incumbent	68.5%	204,942
	Green	Mark Salazar	31.4%	93,954
	N/A	Write-in	0%	75
Total Votes				298,971
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 Republican Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Trent Franks Incumbent	71.1%	59,042
Clair Van Steenwyk	28.9%	24,042
Total Votes		83,084
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2014

See also: Arizona's 8th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 8th Congressional District of Arizona held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Trent Franks (R) defeated Stephen Dolgos (Americans Elect) in the general election.

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2014

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Trent Franks Incumbent	75.8%	128,710
	Americans Elect	Stephen Dolgos	24.2%	41,066
Total Votes				169,776
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2012

See also: Arizona's 8th Congressional District elections, 2012

In 2012, District 2 incumbent Trent Franks (R) decided to run for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives in the 8th District. He defeated Gene Scharer (D) and Stephen Dolgos (I) in the general election on November 6, 2012.

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2012

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Trent Franks Incumbent	63.3%	172,809
	Democratic	Gene Scharer	35.1%	95,635
	Americans Elect	Stephen Dolgos	1.6%	4,347
Total Votes				272,791
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Gabrielle Giffords won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Jesse Kelly (R) and Steven Stoltz (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2010
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Gabrielle Giffords incumbent	48.8%	138,280
	Republican	Jesse Kelly	47.3%	134,124
	Libertarian	Steven Stoltz	3.9%	11,174
Total Votes				283,578

2008

On November 4, 2008, Gabrielle Giffords won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Tim Bee (R), Paul Davis (L) and Paul Price (Write-in) in the general election.

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Gabrielle Giffords incumbent	54.7%	179,629
	Republican	Tim Bee	42.8%	140,553
	Libertarian	Paul Davis	2.5%	8,081
	Write-in	Paul Price	0%	3
Total Votes				328,266

2006

On November 7, 2006, Gabrielle Giffords won election to the United States House. She defeated Randy Graf (R), David Nolan (L) and Jay Quick (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2006
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Gabrielle Giffords	54.3%	137,655
	Republican	Randy Graf	42.1%	106,790
	Libertarian	David Nolan	1.9%	4,849
	Independent	Jay Quick	1.7%	4,408
	N/A	Write-in	0%	18
Total Votes				253,720

2004

On November 2, 2004, Jim Kolbe won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Eva Bacal (D) and Robert Anderson (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2004
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Jim Kolbe incumbent	60.4%	183,363
	Democratic	Eva Bacal	36.2%	109,963
	Libertarian	Robert Anderson	3.4%	10,443
Total Votes				303,769

2002

On November 5, 2002, Jim Kolbe won election to the United States House. He defeated Mary Judge Ryan (D), Joe Duarte (L), and Jim Dorrance (write-in) in the general election.

U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2002
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Jim Kolbe	63.3%	126,930
	Democratic	Mary Judge Ryan	33.6%	67,328
	Libertarian	Joe Duarte	3.1%	6,142
	Write-in	Jim Dorrance	0%	28
Total Votes				200,428

Background

Franks sexual misconduct allegations

See also: Sexual misconduct in American politics (2017)

On December 7, 2017, the House Ethics Committee announced that it would investigate Trent Franks to find out if he was involved in "conduct that constitutes sexual harassment and/or retaliation for opposing sexual harassment."

Later that evening, Franks acknowledged that he had discussed possible surrogacy arrangements with female staffers. However, he denied ever having "physically intimidated, coerced, or had, or attempted to have, any sexual contact with any member of my congressional staff." The Associated Press reported on December 8 that he had offered a female staffer $5 million to carry his child.

Franks announced that he would resign from office on January 31, 2018. Regarding the resignation, Franks said, "But in the midst of this current cultural and media climate, I am deeply convinced I would be unable to complete a fair House Ethics investigation before distorted and sensationalized versions of this story would put me, my family, my staff, and my noble colleagues in the House of Representatives through hyperbolized public excoriation. Rather than allow a sensationalized trial by media damage those things I love most, this morning I notified House leadership that I will be leaving Congress as of January 31st, 2018."

On December 8, he revised his date of resignation and said he would leave immediately. He said the change was due to his wife's admission to the hospital for an ailment.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.

Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 25 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 14 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.

In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 18 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 16 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points.

2016 presidential results by state House district
District	Obama	Romney	2012 Margin	Clinton	Trump	2016 Margin	Party Control
1	30.1%	68.2%	R+38.2	28.6%	66.9%	R+38.3	R
2	57.2%	41.6%	D+15.7	59.4%	36.1%	D+23.2	D
3	70.0%	28.1%	D+41.9	70.2%	24.4%	D+45.8	D
4	54.3%	44.2%	D+10.2	56.8%	38.2%	D+18.7	D
5	28.1%	70.0%	R+41.9	22.2%	73.5%	R+51.3	R
6	42.2%	55.6%	R+13.4	41.7%	52.1%	R+10.4	R
7	63.2%	35.4%	D+27.8	59.8%	34.1%	D+25.7	D
8	44.7%	53.5%	R+8.8	40.2%	54.6%	R+14.4	R
9	53.4%	44.9%	D+8.4	56.8%	37.9%	D+18.9	D
10	51.8%	46.5%	D+5.4	52.9%	41.6%	D+11.4	D
11	39.7%	59.0%	R+19.3	40.6%	54.5%	R+13.9	R
12	32.5%	65.9%	R+33.4	34.8%	59.3%	R+24.5	R
13	33.5%	65.1%	R+31.6	34.1%	61.1%	R+27	R
14	35.7%	62.5%	R+26.8	33.6%	59.9%	R+26.2	R
15	36.4%	61.9%	R+25.4	39.1%	55.7%	R+16.6	R
16	35.0%	63.1%	R+28.1	32.9%	61.3%	R+28.4	R
17	42.1%	56.2%	R+14.2	45.1%	49.2%	R+4.1	R
18	48.1%	50.0%	R+1.9	51.9%	41.5%	D+10.4	R
19	66.4%	32.1%	D+34.3	67.4%	27.2%	D+40.3	D
20	42.4%	55.3%	R+12.9	42.7%	50.7%	R+8	R
21	40.6%	58.0%	R+17.4	39.8%	55.0%	R+15.2	R
22	33.4%	65.4%	R+31.9	33.7%	62.1%	R+28.4	R
23	35.9%	62.9%	R+26.9	41.2%	54.6%	R+13.3	R
24	63.2%	34.4%	D+28.8	65.9%	27.7%	D+38.3	D
25	33.1%	65.1%	R+31.9	35.1%	58.7%	R+23.6	R
26	58.3%	38.5%	D+19.8	59.4%	31.9%	D+27.5	D
27	75.2%	23.2%	D+52	74.1%	20.6%	D+53.5	D
28	44.6%	53.6%	R+9	49.9%	44.6%	D+5.3	R
29	64.7%	33.6%	D+31.1	65.0%	29.3%	D+35.7	D
30	61.3%	36.7%	D+24.7	62.2%	31.7%	D+30.5	D
Total	44.6%	53.7%	R+9.1	45.5%	49.0%	R+3.6	-
Source: Daily Kos

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Arizona heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

• Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Arizona.
• Republicans held five of the nine U.S. House seats in Arizona.

State executives

• As of September 2018, Republicans held 7 of 11 state executive positions. The remaining four positions were officially nonpartisan.
• The governor of Arizona was Republican Doug Ducey. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018.

State legislature

• Republicans controlled both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

• Arizona was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: Arizona elections, 2018

Arizona held elections for the following positions in 2018:

• One U.S. Senate seats
• Nine U.S. House seats
• Governor
• Seven lower state executive positions
• 30 state Senate seats
• 60 state House seats

Demographics

Demographic data for Arizona
	Arizona	U.S.
Total population:	6,817,565	316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):	113,594	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:	78.4%	73.6%
Black/African American:	4.2%	12.6%
Asian:	3%	5.1%
Native American:	4.4%	0.8%
Pacific Islander:	0.2%	0.2%
Two or more:	3.2%	3%
Hispanic/Latino:	30.3%	17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:	86%	86.7%
College graduation rate:	27.5%	29.8%
Income
Median household income:	$50,255	$53,889
Persons below poverty level:	21.2%	11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Arizona Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Arizona every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Arizona 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Donald Trump	48.7%	Hillary Clinton	45.1%	3.6%
2012	Mitt Romney	53.7%	Barack Obama	44.6%	9.1%
2008	John McCain	53.6%	Barack Obama	45.1%	7.5%
2004	George W. Bush	54.9%	John Kerry	44.4%	10.5%
2000	George W. Bush	51.0%	Al Gore	44.5%	5.5%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Arizona 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	John McCain	53.7%	Ann Kirkpatrick	40.7%	13.0%
2012	Jeff Flake	49.2%	Richard Carmona	46.2%	3.0%
2010	John McCain	58.9%	Rodney Glassman	34.7%	24.2%
2006	Jon Kyl	53.3%	Jim Pederson	43.5%	9.8%
2004	John McCain	76.7%	Stuart Starky	20.6%	56.1%
2002	Jon Kyl	79.3%	William Toel (I)	7.8%	7.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Arizona.

Election results (Governor), Arizona 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2014	Doug Ducey	53.4%	Fred DuVal	41.6%	11.8%
2010	Jan Brewer	54.3%	Terry Goddard	42.4%	12.1%
2006	Janet Napolitano	62.6%	Len Munsil	35.4%	27.2%
2002	Janet Napolitano	46.2%	Matt Salmon	45.2%	1.0%'

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Arizona in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Arizona 2000-2016
Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	5	55.5%	4	44.4%	R+1
2014	5	55.5%	4	44.4%	R+1
2012	4	44.4%	5	55.5%	D+1
2010	5	62.5%	3	37.5%	R+2
2008	3	37.5%	5	62.5%	D+2
2006	4	50%	4	50%	Even
2004	6	75%	2	25%	R+4
2002	6	75%	2	25%	R+4
2000	5	83.3%	1	16.6%	R+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
Governor	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D
Senate	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

See also

• Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)
• United States House of Representatives
• United States congressional delegations from Arizona
• Arizona's 8th Congressional District special election (February 27, 2018 Democratic primary)
• Arizona's 8th Congressional District special election (February 27, 2018 Republican primary)
• Arizona's 8th Congressional District election, 2018
• Arizona's 8th Congressional District
• Trent Franks

External links

Suggest a link

• Search Google News for this topic

Footnotes

[show]

Arizona's current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

Ruben Gallego (D)

Mark Kelly (D)

Representatives

District 1

David Schweikert (R)

District 2

Eli Crane (R)

District 3

Yassamin Ansari (D)

District 4

Greg Stanton (D)

District 5

Andy Biggs (R)

District 6

Juan Ciscomani (R)

District 7

Vacant

District 8

Abraham Hamadeh (R)

District 9

Paul Gosar (R)

Republican Party (6)

Democratic Party (4)

Vacancies (1)