Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 7, 2017
2017 State Legislative Elections | |
---|---|
2018 »
« 2016
| |
2017 special elections |
2017 Elections | |
---|---|
Choose a chamber below: | |
Ballotpedia’s annual study of state legislative election competitiveness revealed that the 2017 elections were the most competitive odd-year elections since at least 2011. The 2017 elections—which feature both chambers of the New Jersey State Legislature and the Virginia House of Delegates—were more competitive than recent odd-year elections that featured two states (2013) and odd-year elections that featured four states (2011 and 2015).
The relatively high degree of competitiveness compared to previous years was due to the percentage of races being contested by both parties. The 2017 elections had a higher percentage of seats being contested by both major parties than other odd-year elections since at least 2011.
This report is organized into four sections. They are:
Competitiveness overview
Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.
Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:
- Open seats, those where no incumbents filed to run;
- Incumbents in contested primaries, those who could potentially lose to challengers; and,
- Major party competition — where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.
These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).
The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2011 to 2017 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.
State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2011-2017 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2017 | AVERAGE | ||||
Competitiveness Index | 28.1 | 30.3 | 25.4 | 34.9 | 29.7 | |||
Open seats | 17.0% | 6.8% | 14.7% | 9.1% | 11.9% | |||
Inc. in contested primaries | 21.4% | 11.7% | 23.3% | 16.0% | 18.1% | |||
Seats with major party competition | 46.0% | 72.3% | 38.3% | 79.5% | 59.0% |
Open seats
There were 220 state legislative seats up for election on November 7, 2017, in two states. Of that total, there were 20 open seats, guaranteeing at least 9% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was down from 2015 (15%) but higher than in 2013 (7%).
Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.
In 2017:
Open state legislative seats, 2017 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chamber | Seats | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Democratic | Republican | Other | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||
# | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||
House | 180 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 15 | 8.3% | ||||||||||||||||||
Senate | 40 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12.5% | ||||||||||||||||||
Total | 220 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 20 | 9.1% |
Historical comparison
The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2011 to 2017. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.
See also
- State legislative elections, 2017
- Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2017
- Open seats in state legislative elections, 2017
- Contested state legislative primaries, 2017
- State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2017
- Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2017
- Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections, 2017
- Primary election competitiveness in state government, 2017
|
|
- ↑ Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.