Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 7, 2017

2017 State Legislative Elections
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2017 elections
New Jersey • Virginia 2017 special elections

2017 Elections
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Ballotpedia’s annual study of state legislative election competitiveness revealed that the 2017 elections were the most competitive odd-year elections since at least 2011. The 2017 elections—which feature both chambers of the New Jersey State Legislature and the Virginia House of Delegates—were more competitive than recent odd-year elections that featured two states (2013) and odd-year elections that featured four states (2011 and 2015).

The relatively high degree of competitiveness compared to previous years was due to the percentage of races being contested by both parties. The 2017 elections had a higher percentage of seats being contested by both major parties than other odd-year elections since at least 2011.

HIGHLIGHTS

In 79.5% of general election races, candidates faced opposition from the other party. In 2013, 72.3% of races featured candidates from both of the major parties.

Incumbents ran in 90.9% of seats up for election in 2017.

Of the incumbents running for re-election, 84.0% did not face primary opposition. In 2013, 88.3% of incumbents running for re-election did not face primary challengers.

This report is organized into four sections. They are:

• Competitiveness overview
• Open seats
• Incumbents in contested primaries
• Major party competition

Competitiveness overview

Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

• Open seats, those where no incumbents filed to run;
• Incumbents in contested primaries, those who could potentially lose to challengers; and,
• Major party competition — where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.

These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2011 to 2017 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2011-2017
	2011	2013	2015	2017	AVERAGE
Competitiveness Index	28.1	30.3	25.4	34.9	29.7
Open seats	17.0%	6.8%	14.7%	9.1%	11.9%
Inc. in contested primaries	21.4%	11.7%	23.3%	16.0%	18.1%
Seats with major party competition	46.0%	72.3%	38.3%	79.5%	59.0%

Open seats

See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2017

There were 220 state legislative seats up for election on November 7, 2017, in two states. Of that total, there were 20 open seats, guaranteeing at least 9% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was down from 2015 (15%) but higher than in 2013 (7%).

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

In 2017:

There were six open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.

There were 14 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.

The total number of open seats—20—was up from 15 in 2013, the last time only New Jersey and Virginia held elections, representing a 33% increase.

Open state legislative seats, 2017
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic	Republican	Other	Total
					#	%
House	180	4	11	0	15	8.3%
Senate	40	2	3	0	5	12.5%
Total	220	6	14	0	20	9.1%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2011 to 2017. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.