Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 7, 2017

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Ballotpedia’s annual study of state legislative election competitiveness revealed that the 2017 elections were the most competitive odd-year elections since at least 2011. The 2017 elections—which feature both chambers of the New Jersey State Legislature and the Virginia House of Delegates—were more competitive than recent odd-year elections that featured two states (2013) and odd-year elections that featured four states (2011 and 2015).

The relatively high degree of competitiveness compared to previous years was due to the percentage of races being contested by both parties. The 2017 elections had a higher percentage of seats being contested by both major parties than other odd-year elections since at least 2011.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • In 79.5% of general election races, candidates faced opposition from the other party. In 2013, 72.3% of races featured candidates from both of the major parties.
  • Incumbents ran in 90.9% of seats up for election in 2017.
  • Of the incumbents running for re-election, 84.0% did not face primary opposition. In 2013, 88.3% of incumbents running for re-election did not face primary challengers.

  • This report is organized into four sections. They are:

    Competitiveness overview

    Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

    Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

    These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

    The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2011 to 2017 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

    State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2011-2017
    2011 2013 2015 2017 AVERAGE
    Competitiveness Index 28.1 30.3 25.4 34.9 29.7
    Open seats 17.0% 6.8% 14.7% 9.1% 11.9%
    Inc. in contested primaries 21.4% 11.7% 23.3% 16.0% 18.1%
    Seats with major party competition 46.0% 72.3% 38.3% 79.5% 59.0%


    Open seats

    See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2017

    There were 220 state legislative seats up for election on November 7, 2017, in two states. Of that total, there were 20 open seats, guaranteeing at least 9% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was down from 2015 (15%) but higher than in 2013 (7%).

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

    In 2017:

  • There were six open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.
  • There were 14 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.
  • The total number of open seats—20—was up from 15 in 2013, the last time only New Jersey and Virginia held elections, representing a 33% increase.


  • Open state legislative seats, 2017
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Other Total
    # %
    House 180 4 11 0 15 8.3%
    Senate 40 2 3 0 5 12.5%
    Total 220 6 14 0 20 9.1%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2011 to 2017. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.

    See also

    1. Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.