Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 6, 2016

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2016 State
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Part 1: Overview
Part 2: Battlegrounds
Part 3: Competitiveness
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2016 Elections
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Ballotpedia’s annual study of state legislative election competitiveness revealed that 2016 elections were less competitive than recent elections on average, but more competitive than the 2014 elections.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Incumbents ran for 82.6% of seats up for election in 2016.
  • Of the incumbents running for re-election, 79.8% did not face primary opposition.
  • In 42.4% of general election races, candidates faced no opposition from the other party.

    • This report is organized into four sections. They are:

    Competitiveness overview

    Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

    Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

    These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

    The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2010 to 2016 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

    See also: Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections
    State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2010-2016
    2010 2012 2014 2016 AVERAGE
    Competitiveness Index 34.6 35.2 30.8 31.7 33.1
    Open seats 18.7% 21.9% 16.8% 17.4% 18.7%
    Inc. in contested primaries 20.0% 23.3% 19.5% 20.2% 20.8%
    Seats with major party competition 65.0% 60.4% 56.0% 57.6% 59.8%

    Open seats

    See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2016

    There were 5,916 state legislative seats up for election on November 8, 2016, in 44 states. Of that total, there were 1,032 open seats, guaranteeing at least 17% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was the same percentage as in 2014 (17%) but lower than in 2010 (19%) and 2012 (22%).

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

    In 2016:

  • There were 421 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.
  • There were 602 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.
  • There were nine other open seats. This includes those most recently held by minor party or independent officeholders at the time of filing. It also includes seats where Ballotpedia could not determine partisan control due to redistricting.
  • The total number of open seats—1,032—was the second-lowest since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010, representing a 1% increase from 2014.



    • Open state legislative seats, 2016
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Other Total
    # %
    House 4,710 330 457 7 794 16.9%
    Senate 1,206 91 145 2 238 19.7%
    Total 5,916 421 602 9 1,032 17.4%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2010 to 2016. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders. It also includes seats whose previous officeholders could not be determined due to redistricting.

    See also

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    Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections
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    Geoff Pallay, Director of Editorial Content and Editor-in-Chief • Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy • Norm Leahy, Senior Editor • Daniel Anderson, Managing Editor • Ryan Byrne, Managing Editor • Cory Eucalitto, Managing Editor • Mandy Gillip, Managing Editor • Doug Kronaizl, Local Elections Project Manager • Jaclyn Beran • Marielle Bricker • Joseph Brusgard • Emma Burlingame • Kelly Coyle • Thomas Ellis • Frank Festa • Nicole Fisher • Brianna Hosea • Joseph Greaney • Thomas Grobben • Jaime Healy-Plotkin • Tyler King • Glorie Martinez • Nathan Maxwell • Ellie Mikus • Jackie Mitchell • Ellen Morrissey • Mackenzie Murphy • Kaley Platek • Samantha Post • Adam Powell • Ethan Rice • Spencer Richardson • Victoria Rose • Briana Ryan • Myj Saintyl • Maddy Salucka • Maddie Sinclair Johnson • Abbey Smith • Alexis Thacker • Janie Valentine • Joel Williams • Samuel Wonacott • Trenton Woodcox • Mercedes Yanora
    1. ↑ Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.
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