Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 5, 2015

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2015 State Legislative Elections
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Other 2015 Election coverage
Ballot access for major and minor party candidates • Statewide elections, 2015 • State executive official elections • 2015 ballot measures • State legislative special elections, 2015

Following an even-year election cycle which was statistically the worst since Ballotpedia began yearly analyses of state legislative electoral competitiveness in 2010, 2015 set a new record not only for off-year election cycles but also in general. While the percentage of open seats (14.7%) was not dissimilar to 2011 (17.0%) and the percentage of incumbents facing primary opposition (23.3%) reached a high mark for odd years, the percentage of general elections between major candidates (38.3%) was the lowest recorded so far, bringing 2015's Competitiveness Index to a new record low.

Of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats, 538 were up for election in the November 2015, state legislative elections. This article is an overview of our analysis of the degree of competitiveness in 2015's state legislative elections.

This report is organized into four sections. They are:

• Competitiveness overview
• Open seats
• Incumbents in contested primaries
• Major party competition

Competitiveness overview

Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

• Open seats, those where no incumbents filed to run;
• Incumbents in contested primaries, those who could potentially lose to challengers; and,
• Major party competition — where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.

These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2011 to 2015 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2011-2015
	2011	2013	2015	AVERAGE
Competitiveness Index	28.1	30.3	25.4	27.9
Open seats	17.0%	6.8%	14.7%	12.8%
Inc. in contested primaries	21.4%	11.7%	23.3%	18.8%
Seats with major party competition	46.0%	72.3%	38.3%	52.2%

Open seats

See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2015

There were 538 state legislative seats up for election in 2015 in four states. Of that total, there were 79 open seats, guaranteeing at least 15% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was up from 2013 (7%) but lower than in 2011 (17%).

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

In 2015:

There were 43 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.

There were 36 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.

The total number of open seats—79—was down from 98 in 2011, the last time all four states held elections, representing a 19% decrease.

Open state legislative seats, 2015
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic	Republican	Other	Total
					#	%
House	407	34	22	0	56	13.8%
Senate	131	9	14	0	23	17.6%
Total	538	43	36	0	79	14.7%

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Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2011 to 2015. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.