Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 5, 2015
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New Jersey • Virginia |
Following an even-year election cycle which was statistically the worst since Ballotpedia began yearly analyses of state legislative electoral competitiveness in 2010, 2015 set a new record not only for off-year election cycles but also in general. While the percentage of open seats (14.7%) was not dissimilar to 2011 (17.0%) and the percentage of incumbents facing primary opposition (23.3%) reached a high mark for odd years, the percentage of general elections between major candidates (38.3%) was the lowest recorded so far, bringing 2015's Competitiveness Index to a new record low.
Of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats, 538 were up for election in the November 2015, state legislative elections. This article is an overview of our analysis of the degree of competitiveness in 2015's state legislative elections.
This report is organized into four sections. They are:
Competitiveness overview
Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.
Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:
- Open seats, those where no incumbents filed to run;
- Incumbents in contested primaries, those who could potentially lose to challengers; and,
- Major party competition — where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.
These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).
The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2011 to 2015 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.
State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2011-2015 | ||||||||
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2011 | 2013 | 2015 | AVERAGE | |||||
Competitiveness Index | 28.1 | 30.3 | 25.4 | 27.9 | ||||
Open seats | 17.0% | 6.8% | 14.7% | 12.8% | ||||
Inc. in contested primaries | 21.4% | 11.7% | 23.3% | 18.8% | ||||
Seats with major party competition | 46.0% | 72.3% | 38.3% | 52.2% |
Open seats
There were 538 state legislative seats up for election in 2015 in four states. Of that total, there were 79 open seats, guaranteeing at least 15% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was up from 2013 (7%) but lower than in 2011 (17%).
Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.
In 2015:
Open state legislative seats, 2015 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Chamber | Seats | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Democratic | Republican | Other | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||
# | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||
House | 407 | 34 | 22 | 0 | 56 | 13.8% | ||||||||||||||||||
Senate | 131 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 23 | 17.6% | ||||||||||||||||||
Total | 538 | 43 | 36 | 0 | 79 | 14.7% |
Historical comparison
The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2011 to 2015. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.
See also
- State legislative elections, 2015
- Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2015
- Open seats in state legislative elections, 2015
- Contested state legislative primaries, 2015
- State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2015
- Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2015
- Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections, 2015
- Primary election competitiveness in state government, 2015
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- ↑ Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.