Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 2, 2012

2013 → ← 2011
2012 State Legislative Elections
Table of Contents
Redistricting • Partisan Control • Primaries • Impact of Term Limits • Competitiveness Analysis
States
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan• Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Other 2012 Election coverage
Primary elections • Statewide elections, 2012 • State legislative special elections, 2012 • State Senate elections • State House elections • State executive official elections, 2012 • 2012 ballot measures

6,013 seats of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats were up for election in the November 6, 2012 state legislative elections.

This article is an overview of our analysis of the degree of competitiveness in 2012's state legislative elections. The analysis utilized this 3-factor "Competitiveness Index". This report is organized into four sections. They are:

• Competitiveness overview
• Open seats
• Incumbents in contested primaries
• Major party competition

Competitiveness overview

Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

• Open seats, those where no incumbents filed to run;
• Incumbents in contested primaries, those who could potentially lose to challengers; and,
• Major party competition — where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.

These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2010 to 2012 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

See also: Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections

State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2010-2012
	2010	2012	AVERAGE
Competitiveness Index	34.6	35.2	34.9
Open seats	18.7%	21.9%	20.3%
Inc. in contested primaries	20.0%	23.3%	21.7%
Seats with major party competition	65.0%	60.4%	62.7%

Open seats

See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2012

There were 6,013 state legislative seats up for election on November 6, 2012, in 44 states. Of that total, there were 1,314 open seats, guaranteeing at least 22% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was up from 19% compared to the 2010 elections.

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

In 2012:

There were 526 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.

There were 705 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.

There were 83 other open seats. This includes those most recently held by minor party or independent officeholders at the time of filing. It also includes seats where Ballotpedia could not determine partisan control due to redistricting.

The total number of open seats—1,314—was up from 1,143 in 2010, a 15% increase.

Open state legislative seats, 2012
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic	Republican	Other	Total
					#	%
House	4,714	409	531	83	1,023	21.7%
Senate	1,299	117	174	0	291	22.4%
Total	6,013	526	705	83	1,314	21.9%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats compared to 2010. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders. It also includes seats whose previous officeholder could not be determined due to redistricting, resulting in a larger value in 2012.