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Virginia State Senate elections, 2015
Virginia's 2015 elections State Senate • State House • Candidate ballot access |
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Competitiveness • Qualifications |
Elections for the Virginia State Senate took place in 2015. A primary election was held on June 9, 2015. The general election took place on November 3, 2015. The signature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run in this election was March 26, 2015.[1]
The Virginia State Senate was one of seven state legislative chambers throughout the country that held elections in November 2015. It was the only chamber where there was a possibility of a switch in partisan control.
Heading into the November election, Republicans held a two-seat (21-19) lead in the state Senate, which is 5 percent of the 40 seats up for election in 2015. Republicans were also in control of the House of Delegates by a margin of 67 to 33.
Incumbents retiring
Name | Party | Current Office |
---|---|---|
Jeffrey McWaters[2] | Senate District 8 | |
John Watkins[3] | Senate District 10 | |
Walter Stosch[4] | Senate District 12 | |
Ralph Smith[5] | Senate District 19 | |
Charles Colgan[6] | Senate District 29 | |
Toddy Puller[7] | Senate District 36 |
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the November 3 election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Virginia State Senate. Republicans were able to maintain their 21-19 majority.
Virginia State Senate | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | As of November 3, 2015 | After November 3, 2015 | |
Democratic Party | 19 | 19 | |
Republican Party | 21 | 21 | |
Total | 40 | 40 |
What was at stake?
The Virginia State Senate featured a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republicans of two seats, which amounts to 5 percent of the chamber. In 2011, three districts were competitive and had a margin of victory of 5 percent or less.[8] Heading into the general election, Virginia is one of 19 states that is under divided government and is therefore not one of the state government trifectas.
A Ballotpedia analysis of partisan balance between 1992 and 2013 showed that the Democratic Party was the majority in the Virginia State Senate for eight years, while the Republicans were the majority for 12 years.[9]
Republicans held a two-seat (21-19) lead in the state Senate, which is 5 percent of the 40 seats up for election in 2015. Republicans were also in control of the House of Delegates by a margin of 67 to 33. The party hoped to retain the state Senate in order to control Gov. Terry McAuliffe's (D) legislative agenda and the committees.[10] Since Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) could have broke the tie on most issues, Democrats only needed a net gain of one seat in the general election to take control of the state Senate.[10]
Partisan balance 1992-2013
From 1992-2013, the Democratic Party was the majority in the Virginia State Senate for eight years while the Republicans were the majority for 12 years. Virginia was under Republican trifectas for the final two years of the study.
Across the country, there were 541 Democratic and 517 Republican state senates from 1992 to 2013.
Over the course of the 22-year study, state governments became increasingly more partisan. At the outset of the study period (1992), 18 of the 49 states with partisan legislatures had single-party trifectas and 31 states had divided governments. In 2013, only 13 states had divided governments, while single-party trifectas held sway in 36 states, the most in the 22 years studied.
The chart below shows the partisan composition of the Office of the Governor of Virginia, the Virginia State Senate and the Virginia House of Delegates from 1992 to 2013.
SQLI and partisanship
- To read the full report on the State Quality of Life Index (SQLI) in PDF form, click here.
The chart below depicts the partisanship of the Virginia state government and Virginia's State Quality of Life Index (SQLI) ranking for the years studied. For the SQLI, the states were ranked from 1-50 based on quality of life, with 1 being the best and 50 the worst. During the course of the study, Virginia experienced both Democratic and Republican trifectas as well as divided governments. For over half the years of the study, Virginia was ranked in the top 10. This occurred during a Democratic trifecta, Republican trifectas and divided government. Both its highest ranking, finishing first in 2006, and its lowest ranking, finishing 26th in 1997, occurred during divided governments.
- SQLI average with Democratic trifecta: 11.00
- SQLI average with Republican trifecta: 7.67
- SQLI average with divided government: 9.00
Key races
The following table details the key races in the general election for the Virginia State Senate and the 2011 margin of victory.
2015 Races to Watch, Virginia State Senate | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
District | Candidate 1 | Candidate 2 | Candidate 3 | Candidate 4 | Margin of Victory (2011) | MOV (2014 special election) |
District 01 | Mark Matney (R) | D+3.62 | - | |||
District 06 | Richard Ottinger (R) | D+13.63 | D+0.04 | |||
District 07 | Gary McCollum (D) | R+100 | - | |||
District 10 | Dan Gecker (D) | Marleen Durfee (I) | Carl Loser (L) | R+13.18 | - | |
District 13 | B. Jill McCabe (D) | R+14.21 | - | |||
District 17 | Ned Gallaway (D) | R+0.50 | - | |||
District 20 | Kim Adkins (D) | R+1.26 | - | |||
District 21 | Nancy Dye (R) | Donald Caldwell (I) | D+11.93 | - | ||
District 29 | Hal Parrish (R) | D+10.27 | - |
(Bold=Incumbent)
- District 1: In this district, incumbent John Miller (D) defeated DUI attorney Mark Matney (R) in the general election.[11] Miller was re-elected with a margin of victory of 4 percent in 2011 and was elected to the chamber with a margin of victory of 3 percent in 2007.[8] As of August 31, 2015, Miller had $111,583 in cash on hand, while Matney only had $1,823.[12]
- District 6: Incumbent Lynwood Lewis (D) defeated challenger Richard Ottinger (R) in the general election. Lewis won this seat in a January 2015 special election by only 11 votes.[10] Before joining the state Senate, Lewis served in the Virginia House of Delegates from 2004 to January 2014. In this Democratic-leaning seat, Lewis led Ottinger $177,814 to $33,909 in cash on hand as of August 31, 2015.[12]
- District 7: Incumbent Frank Wagner (R) defeated Gary McCollum (D) in the general election. McCollum is a Cox Communications executive, minister and former Army Ranger. McCollum was the first challenger to face Wagner in a general election since he was first elected to the chamber in 2003.[10] Campaign finance reports showed that he raised $250,000 from January to March, while Wagner raised $90,000. Wagner was not allowed to fundraise during the 45-day legislative session.[13] As of August 31, 2015, Wagner had a cash-on-hand advantage of $521,748 to $471,960 against McCollum.[12]
- District 10: In this open seat, Glen Sturtevant (R) defeated Dan Gecker (D), Marleen Durfee (I) and Carl Loser (L) in the general election. Incumbent John Watkins (R), who has represented the district since 1998, did not run for re-election. Democrats hoped to capture this seat, where they had won every statewide election in the district since 2012.[13] In August 2015, Sturtevant had $40,122 in cash on hand, while Gecker had $151,907.[12][14]
- District 17: Incumbent Bryce Reeves (R) defeated Albemarle County School Board chairman Ned Gallaway (D) in the general election.[15] In 2011, Reeves defeated incumbent R. Edward "Edd" Houck (D) by a margin of victory of 0.50 percent or by only 226 votes.[8] According to the Virginia Public Access Project, as of August 31, 2015, Reeves had a cash-on-hand advantage of $564,022 to $18,711.[12]
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- District 20: Incumbent Bill Stanley (R) defeated former Martinsville Mayor Kim Adkins (D) in the general election.[16] Stanley defeated incumbent Roscoe Reynolds (D) in 2011 by a margin of victory of 1.26 percent or by 644 votes.[8] As of August 31, 2015, Stanley held a cash-on-hand advantage against Adkins of $154,223 to $31,577.[12]
- District 21: Incumbent John Edwards (D) defeated Nancy Dye (R) and Donald Caldwell (I) in the general election. Caldwell, a long-time Democrat, was the longest-serving commonwealth's attorney in Roanoke.[17] Bob Denton, a political analyst and head of Virginia Tech’s communications department, suggested that Caldwell's candidacy may have boosted Dye's campaign, providing the potential for a GOP upset.[17] According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Dye had $104,194 in cash on hand and Edwards had $92,383 as of May 27.[17] Edwards was re-elected in 2011 with a margin of victory of 11.93 percent.[8] In August 2015, Edwards led Dye $168,655 to $105,412 in cash on hand.[12] As of September 30, 2015, Dye had $157,479 in cash-on-hand, while Edwards had $138,848 and Caldwell had $35,280.[18]
- District 29: In this open seat, Jeremy McPike (D) defeated Hal Parrish (R) in the general election. Incumbent Charles Colgan (D), who represented the district since 1976, did not run for re-election. Colgan was re-elected in 2011 by a margin of victory of 10.27 percent.[8] Parrish has served as the mayor of Manassas since 2009 and on the Manassas City Council since 1993.[17] McPike, the director of general services for the city of Alexandria, lost a close election in 2013 against Del. Scott Lingamfelter (R).[17] McPike lost by only 228 votes. According to August 2015 campaign finance reports, Parrish led McPike $218,197 to $102,775 in cash on hand.[12] As of September 30, 2015, Parrish had $143,078 in cash-on-hand, while McPike had $19,841.[19] On October 22, 2015, Everytown for Gun Safety, a group financed by ex-New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, announced that it planned to spend $1.5 million in TV and online ads for Democrat Jeremy McPike.[20]
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 20 of the 40 districts up for election in 2015, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 10 Democrats and 10 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in just 20 of the 40 districts up for election. This is a decrease from 2011, when 24 districts featured general election competition.
Primary challenges
Four incumbents faced primary competition on June 9. Six incumbents did not seek re-election in 2015, and the remaining 30 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. One of the 11 incumbents to face primary competition was defeated in the June 3 primary.
The June 9 primary elections featured three contested Democratic primaries and five contested Republican primaries. According to unofficial results, three of those primaries were mildly competitive—with a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent—with the remaining five primaries featuring a margin of victory greater than 10 percent. The contested primaries with mildly competitive elections were:
District 29: Jeremy McPike defeated Atif Qarni and Michael Futrell.
District 11: Amanda Chase defeated incumbent Steve Martin and Barry Moore.
District 12: Siobhan Dunnavant defeated Bill Janis, Vince Haley and Edward Whitlock.
Retiring incumbents
Six incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 34 (85 percent) ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents—two Democrats and four Republicans—can be found above.
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Qualifications
State senators must be at least 21 years of age at the time of the election, residents of the district they represent and qualified to vote for members of the Virginia General Assembly.[21]
List of candidates
Qualified primary and general election candidates are listed below.[22] If a candidate was unopposed for a primary, no primary was held and the candidate was declared the party nominee.
The deadline for both the Democratic and Republican parties to select nominees for any districts without primary candidates was June 9.
Independent and third-party candidates had to file with the state by June 9 in order to qualify for the general election ballot.
District 1
- ☑ John Miller (I)
General election:
- ☑ John Miller: 17,989
- ☐ Mark Matney: 12,278
District 2
- ☑ Mamie Locke (I)
- No candidates filed for election.
General election:
- ☑ Mamie Locke: 17,459
District 3
- ☑ Tommy Norment (I)
General election:
- ☐ Hugo E. Reyes: 15,432
- ☑ Tommy Norment: 35,520
District 4
- No candidates filed for election.
- ☑ Ryan McDougle (I)
General election:
- ☑ Ryan McDougle: 37,882
District 5
- ☑ Kenny Alexander (I)
- No candidates filed for election.
General election:
- ☑ Kenny Alexander: 13,955
District 6
- ☑ Lynwood Lewis (I)
General election:
- ☑ Lynwood Lewis: 16,738
- ☐ Richard Ottinger: 11,386
District 7
- ☑ Frank Wagner (I)
General election:
- ☐ Gary McCollum: 15,434
- ☑ Frank Wagner: 18,266
District 8
Note: Incumbent Jeffrey McWaters (R) did not run for re-election.
- ☑ Bill R. DeSteph, Jr: 2,280
- ☐ Craig Hudgins: 928
General election:
- ☐ Dave Belote: 11,075
- ☑ Bill R. DeSteph, Jr: 15,905
District 9
- ☑ Donald McEachin (I)
- No candidates filed for election.
General election:
- ☑ Donald McEachin: 31,067
District 10
Note: Incumbent John Watkins (R) did not run for re-election.
- ☑ Dan Gecker: 4,730
- ☐ Emily Francis: 3,487
- ☐ Alex McMurtrie: 1,957
General election:
- ☐ Dan Gecker: 26,173
- ☑ Glen Sturtevant: 27,651
- ☐ Marleen Durfee: 1,136
- ☐ Carl Loser: 527
District 11
- ☑ Amanda Chase: 4,907
- ☐ Steve Martin (I): 4,238
- ☐ Barry Moore: 2,977
General election:
- ☐ E. Wayne Powell: 15,485
- ☑ Amanda Chase: 27,218
District 12
Note: Incumbent Walter Stosch (R) did not run for re-election.
- ☑ Siobhan Dunnavant: 7,008
- ☐ Vince Haley: 4,046
- ☐ Bill Janis: 5,573
- ☐ Edward Whitlock: 1,728
General election:
- ☐ Deborah Repp: 16,797
- ☑ Siobhan Dunnavant: 25,504
- ☐ Robert "Scott" Johnson: 1,881
District 13
- ☑ Dick Black (I)
General election:
- ☐ B. Jill McCabe: 23,544
- ☑ Dick Black: 25,898
District 14
- No candidates filed for election.
- ☑ John Cosgrove (I): 2,586
- ☐ Bill Haley: 1,417
General election:
- ☑ John Cosgrove: 15,371
District 15
- No candidates filed for election.
- ☑ Frank Ruff (I)
General election:
- ☑ Frank Ruff: 32,745
District 16
- ☑ Rosalyn Dance (I): 4,967
- ☐ Joseph Preston: 3,039
Note: Derik Jones was removed from the ballot after he did not attain the required number of valid signatures.[23]
- No candidates filed for election.
General election:
- Note: Joseph Morrissey withdrew from the race on September 10, 2015.[24] However, as of October 14, 2015, he remained on the ballot.[25][26]
- ☑ Rosalyn Dance: 17,331
- ☐ Joseph Morrissey: 6,090
District 17
Democratic candidates:
Note: Traci Dippert (D) withdrew from the race before the primary.[27]
- ☑ Bryce Reeves (I)
General election:
- ☐ Ned Gallaway: 14,915
- ☑ Bryce Reeves: 24,519
District 18
- ☑ Louise Lucas (I)
- No candidates filed for election.
General election:
- ☑ Louise Lucas: 20,321
District 19
Note: Incumbent Ralph Smith (R) did not run for re-election.
General election:
- ☐ Michael L. Hamlar: 15,738
- ☑ David Suetterlein: 33,120
- ☐ Steven L. Nelson: 2,134
District 20
- ☑ Bill Stanley (I)
General election:
- ☐ Kim Adkins: 16,455
- ☑ Bill Stanley: 22,701
District 21
- ☑ John Edwards (I)
General election:
- ☑ John Edwards: 20,881
- ☐ Nancy Dye: 17,438
- ☐ Donald Caldwell: 2,626
District 22
- No candidates filed for election.
- ☑ Thomas Garrett (I)
General election:
- ☑ Thomas Garrett: 24,913
District 23
- No candidates filed for election.
- ☑ Stephen Newman (I)
General election:
- ☑ Stephen Newman: 27,309
District 24
- No candidates filed for election.
- ☑ Emmett Hanger (I): 7,648
- ☐ Dan Moxley: 3,491
- ☐ Marshall Pattie: 1,551
General election:
- ☑ Emmett Hanger: 34,980
District 25
- ☑ Creigh Deeds (I)
- No candidates filed for election.
General election:
- ☑ Creigh Deeds: 34,419
District 26
- ☑ Mark Obenshain (I)
General election:
- ☐ April Moore: 11,308
- ☑ Mark Obenshain: 25,042
District 27
- No candidates filed for election.
- ☑ Jill Vogel (I)
General election:
- ☑ Jill Vogel: 34,203
District 28
- No candidates filed for election.
- ☑ Richard Stuart (I)
General election:
- ☑ Richard Stuart: 30,187
District 29
Note: Incumbent Charles Colgan (D) did not run for re-election.
- ☑ Jeremy McPike: 1,377
- ☐ Michael Futrell: 660
- ☐ Atif Qarni: 1,152
General election:
- ☑ Jeremy McPike: 16,489
- ☐ Hal Parrish: 14,131
District 30
- ☑ Adam Ebbin (I)
- No candidates filed for election.
General election:
- ☑ Adam Ebbin: 27,274
- ☐ J. Ron Fisher: 7,431
District 31
- ☑ Barbara Favola (I)
General election:
- ☑ Barbara Favola: 26,373
- ☐ George V. Forakis: 15,904
District 32
- ☑ Janet Howell (I)
- No candidates filed for election.
General election:
- ☑ Janet Howell: 31,156
District 33
- ☑ Jennifer Wexton (I)
General election:
- ☑ Jennifer Wexton: 18,577
- ☐ Stephen B. Hollingshead: 14,190
District 34
- ☑ Chap Petersen (I)
- No candidates filed for election.
General election:
- ☑ Chap Petersen: 27,690
District 35
- ☑ Dick Saslaw (I)
- No candidates filed for election.
General election:
- ☑ Dick Saslaw: 18,754
- ☐ Terry W. Modglin: 6,055
District 36
Note: Incumbent Linda Todd "Toddy" Puller (D) did not run for re-election.
General election:
- ☑ Scott Surovell: 18,320
- ☐ Jerry Foreman: 11,890
District 37
- ☑ Dave Marsden (I)
General election:
- ☑ Dave Marsden: 18,966
- ☐ David M. Bergman: 15,216
District 38
- No candidates filed for election.
- ☑ A. Benton Chafin (I)
General election:
- ☑ A. Benton Chafin: 31,025
District 39
- ☑ George Barker (I)
General election:
- ☑ George Barker: 20,083
- ☐ Joe Murray: 17,101
District 40
- No candidates filed for election.
- ☑ Bill Carrico (I)
General election:
- ☑ Bill Carrico: 36,838
See also
- Virginia State Senate
- Virginia State Legislature
- Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2015
- State legislative elections, 2015
External links
- Virginia Department of Elections - Official November 3 general election results
- Virginia Department of Elections - 2015 general election candidates
- Virginia Department of Elections - June 9 Democratic primary results
- Virginia Department of Elections - June 9 Republican primary results
- Commonwealth of Virginia Department of Elections - Virginia General Assembly Candidate Filings
- Commonwealth of Virginia Department of Elections - 2015 June Democratic Primary Candidate List
- Virginia General Assembly
- Libertarian Party of Virginia
Footnotes
- ↑ Virginia State Board of Elections, "2015 November Election Calendar," accessed January 2, 2015
- ↑ The Virginian-Pilot, "Va. Beach Sen. Jeff McWaters won't seek re-election," February 26, 2015
- ↑ Richmond Times-Dispatch, "Powhatan senator Watkins won't run again in 2015," November 25, 2014
- ↑ Richmond Times-Dispatch, "Stosch, GOP state senator from Henrico, will retire at end of term," January 12, 2015
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Va. Republican state Sen. Ralph Smith announces retirement," March 16, 2015
- ↑ Richmond Times-Dispatch, "Sen. Charles J. Colgan to retire next year," June 25, 2014
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Virginia Democratic Sen. Linda ‘Toddy’ Puller to retire," January 14, 2015
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 Ballotpedia, "Virginia Margin of Victory," accessed June 17, 2015
- ↑ Ballotpedia, "Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States, Virginia," accessed June 17, 2015
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 roanoke.com, "Roanoke region among races to watch in the fight for control of Virginia Senate," accessed June 17, 2015
- ↑ dailypress.com, "Couple of surprises as Peninsula House, Senate races shape up," accessed June 17, 2015
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 Virginia Public Access Project, "Cash on Hand," accessed September 21, 2015
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 washingtonpost.com, "A few Va. Senate races expected to have wide-ranging impact," accessed June 17, 2015
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Can Virginia Democrats retake the state Senate? A look at the Old Dominion's critical contests," July 21, 2015
- ↑ dailyprogress.com, "Gallaway picked as Democrats' new nominee for 17th District Senate race," accessed June 17, 2015
- ↑ chathamstartribune.com, "County election deadline nears," accessed June 18, 2015
- ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 roanoke.com, "Don Caldwell enters race against John Edwards, Nancy Dye for Senate," accessed June 18, 2015
- ↑ Virginia Public Access Project, "Cash on Hand," accessed October 22, 2015
- ↑ Virginia Public Access Project, "Cash on Hand," accessed October 22, 2015
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Bloomberg’s gun-control group bankrolls $1.5 million ad buy in second Va. race," accessed October 23, 2015
- ↑ vakids.org, "Virginia State Legislature For Kids," accessed December 18, 2013
- ↑ Virginia Department of Elections, "Virginia General Assembly Legislative Chair Filings," April 2, 2015
- ↑ wtvr.com, "Morrissey, Jones fail to earn enough signatures for 16th District Senate seat primary," accessed June 8, 2015
- ↑ wric.com, "Joe Morrissey pulls out of Senate race due to health problems," accessed September 11, 2015
- ↑ Richmond Times-Dispatch, "Morrissey still on the ballot in the 16th Senate District," September 22, 2015
- ↑ Virginia Department of Elections, "List of Candidates," accessed October 14, 2015
- ↑ Washington Post, "A few Va. Senate races expected to have wide-ranging impact," accessed June 17, 2015
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