United States House of Representatives election in Vermont, 2020

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Vermont's At-Large Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 28, 2020
Primary: August 11, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Peter Welch (D)
How to vote
Poll times: Open between 5 a.m. to 10 a.m.; close at 7 p.m.
Voting in Vermont
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Vermont's At-Large Congressional District
At-large
Vermont elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

The 2020 U.S. House of Representatives election in Vermont took place on November 3, 2020. Voters elected one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's one at-large congressional district.

Incumbent Peter Welch won election in the general election for U.S. House Vermont At-large District.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
May 28, 2020
August 11, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Peter Welch, who was first elected in 2006.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Vermont's At-Large Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 66.4 67.3
Republican candidate Republican Party 30.8 27
Difference 35.6 40.3

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Vermont modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Mail-in ballots were sent to all registered voters in the general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Partisan breakdown

Heading into the November 3 election, the Democratic Party held the At-Large Congressional District seat from Vermont.

Members of the U.S. House from Vermont -- Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 2020 After the 2020 Election
     Democratic Party 1 1
     Republican Party 0 0
Total 1 1

Incumbents

Heading into the 2020 election, the incumbent for the one at-large congressional district was:

Name Party District
Peter Welch Electiondot.png Democratic 1


Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Vermont At-large District

The following candidates ran in the general election for U.S. House Vermont At-large District on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Peter Welch
Peter Welch (D)
 
67.3
 
238,827
Image of Miriam Berry
Miriam Berry (R) Candidate Connection
 
27.0
 
95,830
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Peter Becker (Independent)
 
2.3
 
8,065
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Marcia Horne (Independent)
 
1.2
 
4,334
Image of Christopher Helali
Christopher Helali (Party of Communists USA) Candidate Connection
 
1.0
 
3,432
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Shawn Orr (Independent)
 
0.5
 
1,926
Image of Jerry Trudell
Jerry Trudell (Independent)
 
0.5
 
1,881
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.2
 
542

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 354,837
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Vermont At-large District

Incumbent Peter Welch defeated Ralph Corbo in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Vermont At-large District on August 11, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Peter Welch
Peter Welch
 
95.5
 
101,566
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Ralph Corbo
 
4.3
 
4,599
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.2
 
237

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 106,402
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Vermont At-large District

Miriam Berry defeated Justin Tuthill, Anya Tynio, and Jimmy Rodriguez in the Republican primary for U.S. House Vermont At-large District on August 11, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Miriam Berry
Miriam Berry Candidate Connection
 
32.5
 
14,368
Image of Justin Tuthill
Justin Tuthill
 
24.7
 
10,915
Image of Anya Tynio
Anya Tynio
 
20.0
 
8,830
Image of Jimmy Rodriguez
Jimmy Rodriguez
 
18.8
 
8,290
 Other/Write-in votes
 
4.0
 
1,789

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 44,192
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Vermont Progressive Party primary election

Vermont Progressive Party primary for U.S. House Vermont At-large District

Chris Brimmer defeated Cris Ericson in the Vermont Progressive Party primary for U.S. House Vermont At-large District on August 11, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Chris Brimmer
 
58.0
 
469
Image of Cris Ericson
Cris Ericson
 
29.2
 
236
 Other/Write-in votes
 
12.7
 
103

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 808
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 14 Vermont counties—7.14 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Essex County, Vermont 16.65% 13.40% 14.48%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Vermont with 56.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 30.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Vermont cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 60.0 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Vermont supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 70.0 to 26.7 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Vermont. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[1][2]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won all 104 state House districts in Vermont with an average margin of victory of 35.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 92 out of 104 state House districts in Vermont with an average margin of victory of 29.4 points. Clinton won 27 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 12 out of 104 state House districts in Vermont with an average margin of victory of 6.1 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is D+15, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 15 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Vermont's At-Large Congressional District the 89th most Democratic nationally.[3]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.12. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.12 points toward that party.[4]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[5]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[6][7][8]

Race ratings: Vermont's At-large Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Vermont in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Vermont, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Vermont At-large District Major party N/A Signature requirements suspended in response to the coronavirus outbreak N/A N/A 5/28/2020 Source
Vermont At-large District Unaffiliated N/A Signature requirements suspended in response to the coronavirus outbreak N/A N/A 8/6/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Vermont's At-Large Congressional District election, 2018

There are no official candidates yet for this election.

2016

See also: United States House of Representatives election in Vermont, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Peter Welch defeated Erica Clawson (Liberty Union) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced a primary challenger.[9]

U.S. House, Vermont At-large District General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPeter Welch Incumbent 89.5% 264,414
     Liberty Union Erica Clawson 10% 29,410
     N/A Write-in 0.5% 1,510
Total Votes 295,334
Source: Vermont Secretary of State

2014

See also: Vermont's At-Large Congressional District elections, 2014

Incumbent Peter Welch won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. He defeated Mark Donka (R), Cris Ericson (I), Liberty Union Party candidate Matthew Andrews, Energy Independence Party candidate Jerry Trudell and Randall Meyer (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Vermont's At-Large District General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPeter Welch Incumbent 64.4% 123,349
     Republican Mark Donka 31% 59,432
     Independent Cris Ericson 1.4% 2,750
     Liberty Union Party Matthew Andrews 1.1% 2,071
     Independent Randall Meyer 0.9% 1,685
     Energy Independence Party Jerry Trudell 1.1% 2,024
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 193
Total Votes 191,504
Source: Vermont Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  3. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  4. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  5. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  6. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  7. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  8. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  9. ↑ Vermont Secretary of State, "Candidates," accessed May 27, 2016
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Vermont's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Bernie Sanders (I)
Peter Welch (D)
Representatives
Democratic Party (2)
Independent (1)

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