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Trifecta vulnerability in the 2023 elections
Three states held gubernatorial elections in 2023, and four states held regularly scheduled legislative elections in eight of the country's 99 state legislative chambers. Therefore, trifecta status was at stake in five states. Elections for one or more trifecta offices took place in:
- Mississippi—one of 22 states with a Republican trifecta,
- New Jersey—one of 17 states with a Democratic trifecta, and
- Kentucky, Louisiana, and Virginia—three of 11 states with divided government.
A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both state legislature chambers. Ballotpedia's annual trifecta vulnerability ratings estimated the chances of trifectas breaking and forming. Our assessment of gubernatorial races was based on race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. For legislative races, we used the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to change control. Both chambers in a state's legislature were evaluated individually. Click here for more on how these ratings were calculated.
New Jersey's Democratic state government trifecta was moderately vulnerable in 2023, according to this methodology. New Jersey did not hold its gubernatorial election in 2023, but all seats in both state legislative chambers were up for election. If Republicans had gained five seats in the Senate or six seats in the House, they would have won a majority in one chamber or the other and would have broken the Democratic trifecta. Democrats would have retained their trifecta if they lost fewer than five seats in the state Senate and six seats in the General Assembly. New Jersey held legislative elections using districts enacted after the 2020 census for the first time. Democrats had held partisan control of both chambers of the New Jersey legislature since 2004.
Kentucky, Louisiana, and Virginia all had a possibility of becoming Republican trifectas.
- In Louisiana, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) was term-limited and national election publications rated the race to replace him as Leans Republican. All state legislative seats in Louisiana were up for election, and Republicans had an eight-seat majority in the state Senate and a 20-seat majority in the state House.
- Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) ran for re-election. National publications rated that race as Leans Democratic. The last five Kentucky governors—since 1995—have alternated between Democrats and Republicans. Republicans held majorities in both chambers of the Kentucky legislature, and the state next held legislative elections in 2024.
- Virginia will not hold gubernatorial elections until 2025, and the current governor was Glenn Youngkin (R). All 140 legislative districts in the state held elections. Democrats had a two-seat majority in the state Senate and Republicans had a two-seat majority in the House of Delegates. Virginia, like New Jersey, held legislative elections using districts enacted after the 2020 census for the first time.
Mississippi's Republican trifecta was rated not vulnerable according to this analysis. The governor's race was rated as Likely Republican and Republicans had a 12-seat majority in the state Senate and a 20-seat majority in the state House.
Trifecta control affords a political party the opportunity to advance its agenda. Gaining or breaking trifectas—or in some cases, maintaining divided government—thus often becomes a major priority for a party heading into each election cycle. "Few ever pay attention to [gubernatorial and state legislative] races, but they’re important for [redistricting] and waves can be leveraged for major gains," according to NBC News reporter Alex Seitz-Wald.[1]
The 2022 elections resulted in changes to the trifecta status in six states. In Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota, divided governments became Democratic trifectas. In Nevada, the Democratic trifecta became a divided government, and in Arizona, the Republican trifecta became a divided government. Between 2010 and 2022, 79 state government trifectas were broken or gained.
For more on current state government trifectas, click here.
Vulnerable state government trifectas
| Democratic Party Current status: 1 trifecta Moderately vulnerable: 1 |
Republican Party Current status: 1 trifecta Not vulnerable: 1 |
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Vulnerable trifectas
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Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details.
Potential new trifectas
| Predicted Democratic pickups None |
Toss-ups None |
Predicted Republican pickups Moderate possibility: 2 Slight possibility: 1 |
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Potential new trifectas
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Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details. Toss-up states are those where Democratic and Republican trifectas both have a good chance of forming.
Potential best-case scenarios
The following maps represent best-case scenarios for each party based on pre-election projections and forecasting. We define a party's best-case scenario as an outcome in which the party gains all potential new trifectas that are rated towards that party or as a toss-up, as well as retaining all of their current trifectas. Additionally, under a party's best-case scenario, the opposing party loses all of its somewhat and moderately vulnerable trifectas.
The Democrats' best-case scenario was for there to be no change from the trifecta status in place before the 2023 elections.
| Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2022 election for Democrats | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||||||
| States | 50 | 17 | 22 | 11 | |||||
| Population | 328,771,307[2] | 136,955,272 | 130,058,201 | 61,757,834 | |||||
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 41.7% | 39.6% | 18.8% | |||||
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | |||||||||
The Republicans' best-case scenario in 2023 was to break the Democratic trifecta in New Jersey and gain new trifectas in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Virginia.
| Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2022 election for Republicans | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||||||
| States | 50 | 16 | 25 | 9 | |||||
| Population | 328,771,307[3] | 128,072,901 | 147,771,333 | 52,927,073 | |||||
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 39.0% | 44.9% | 16.1% | |||||
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | |||||||||
Trifecta status
At the time of the 2023 elections, there were trifectas in 39 of the 50 states.
- 22
Republican
- 17
Democratic
| Percent of Americans living under trifectas as of January 2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | |
| Population | 328,771,307 [4] | 136,955,272 | 130,058,201 | 61,757,834 |
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 41.7% | 39.6% | 18.8% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed January 3, 2022 | ||||
Methodology
Assessing trifecta vulnerability
Ballotpedia rates trifectas as not vulnerable, somewhat vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, and highly vulnerable. We individually assess the likelihood that each component of a trifecta—control of the governorship, the upper chamber of the state Legislature, and the lower chamber of the state Legislature—changes party hands.
Gubernatorial races
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of changing party control): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the majority party or is likely to be won by the majority party.
- 1 (chance of changing control): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the majority party.
- 2 (significant chance of changing control): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the minority party.
Legislative races
Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to change control. Both chambers in a state's legislature are evaluated individually. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of changing party control): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
- 1 (chance of changing control): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
- 2 (significant chance of changing control): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
Overall assessment
The sum of the three individual ratings is used to determine the state's overall rating:
| 5-6 | Highly vulnerable |
| 3-4 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1-2 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
In states which held elections for only two trifecta components in 2023, the sum of the two remaining ratings is used instead:
| 3-4 | Highly vulnerable |
| 2 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
In states which held elections for only one trifecta component in 2023, vulnerability was calculated as follows:
| 2 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
Assessing potential new trifectas
To determine the possibility of a particular party forming a trifecta in a state where one does not exist, we consider the likelihood of that party taking control of each individual trifecta component it currently lacks.
For instance, at the time of the 2023 elections, the Republican Party controlled the governorship and had majority control in the House of Delegates in Virginia, while the Democratic Party had majority control in the state Senate. Therefore, projections on the outcome of the gubernatorial election indicated the likelihood of a Republican trifecta forming, while projections on the outcome of the legislative elections indicated the likelihood of either a Republican trifecta forming or maintaining divided government.
Gubernatorial races
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of changing party control): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the incumbent's party or is likely to be won by the incumbent's party.
- 1 (chance of changing control): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the incumbent's party.
- 2 (significant chance of changing control): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the challenger's party.
Legislative races
Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to change party control. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of changing party control): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
- 1 (chance of changing control): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
- 2 (significant chance of changing control): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
The scores of the individual components are added together to assess the overall likelihood of a trifecta forming. If the party lacks two trifecta components, the two ratings are totaled as follows:
| 3-4 | Moderate possibility |
| 1-2 | Slight possibility |
| 0 | Low possibility |
If the party lacks only one trifecta component, a rating is determined as follows:
| 2 | Moderate possibility |
| 1 | Slight possibility |
| 0 | Low possibility |
See also
- State government trifectas
- Historical and potential changes in trifectas
- Trifecta vulnerability in the 2022 elections
- Trifecta vulnerability in the 2021 elections
- Trifecta vulnerability in the 2020 elections
Footnotes
- ↑ Twitter, "Alex Seitz-Wald," November 7, 2018
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed March 14, 2022
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed March 14, 2022
- ↑ Excludes the 712,816 inhabitants of Washington, D.C.
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