Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District election, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: N/A
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 2
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
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| Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District |
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| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 20, 2018 |
| Primary: May 15, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Pennsylvania |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 7th (special) • 15th (special) • 18th (special) Pennsylvania elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 12th Congressional District of Pennsylvania, held elections in 2018.
Heading into the election the incumbent was Tom Marino (R), who was first elected in 2010.
Results of 2018 redistricting
On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Candidates on this page were listed under Pennsylvania’s new districts, which were used in the 2018 congressional elections. Click here for more information about the ruling.
The chart below compares this new district with the old district that was the most geographically similar to it.
| Old district[1] | Prior incumbent | Prior 2016 presidential result | New 2016 presidential result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10th District | Tom Marino (R) | R+36.0 | R+36.5 |
Not sure which district you're in? Find out here.
Click the box below to see how the new congressional districts compare to the ones in place before the redrawing.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 12
Incumbent Tom Marino defeated Marc Friedenberg in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 12 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Tom Marino (R) | 66.0 | 161,047 | |
| Marc Friedenberg (D) | 34.0 | 82,825 | ||
| Total votes: 243,872 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 12
Marc Friedenberg defeated Judy Herschel in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 12 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Marc Friedenberg | 50.4 | 12,802 | |
| Judy Herschel | 49.6 | 12,606 | ||
| Total votes: 25,408 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 12
Incumbent Tom Marino defeated Doug McLinko in the Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 12 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Tom Marino | 67.0 | 39,967 | |
| Doug McLinko | 33.0 | 19,662 | ||
| Total votes: 59,629 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Campaign contributions
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Marino | Republican Party | $790,357 | $895,980 | $77,897 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Marc Friedenberg | Democratic Party | $156,485 | $90,406 | $66,080 | As of December 31, 2018 |
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Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+17, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 17 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District the 60th most Republican nationally.[7]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[8]
District history
On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Click here for more information about the ruling.
To view prior results from the same numeric district, click [show] to expand the section. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2016Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Keith Rothfus (R) defeated Erin McClelland (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent in April.[9][10]
2014Keith Rothfus won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. He defeated Erin McClelland in the general election.
Pivot Counties
Three of 67 Pennsylvania counties—4.5 percent—are pivot counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Pennsylvania with 48.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Pennsylvania cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Pennsylvania supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012, but voted Republican in 2016. Presidential results by legislative districtThe following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Pennsylvania. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[11][12]
State overviewPartisan controlThis section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Pennsylvania heading into the 2018 elections. Congressional delegation
State executives
State legislature
Trifecta status
2018 elections
Pennsylvania held elections for the following positions in 2018:
Demographics
As of July 2017, Pennsylvania had a population of approximately 12,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Philadelphia (pop. est. 1.6 million), Pittsburgh (pop. est. 300,000), and Allentown (pop. est. 120,000).[13][14] State election historyThis section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Pennsylvania Department of State. Historical electionsPresidential elections, 2000-2016This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Pennsylvania every year from 2000 to 2016.
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Pennsylvania.
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Trifectas, 1992-2017A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office. Pennsylvania Party Control: 1992-2025
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See also
- Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)
- Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Refers to the old district that makes up a plurality of the new district.
- ↑ The old 1st and 11th districts did not make up a plurality of any of the new districts. The 1st District went for Hillary Clinton by 61.3 percentage points and was represented by Bob Brady (D). The 11th District went for Donald Trump by 23.8 percentage points and was represented by Lou Barletta (R).
- ↑ District 13 incumbent Brendan Boyle (D) filed for re-election in the new 2nd District.
- ↑ District 17 incumbent Matt Cartwright (D) filed for re-election in the new 8th District.
- ↑ Lamb was elected in a March 2018 special election to replace Rep. Tim Murphy (R).
- ↑ Lamb filed to run for PA-17 in the 2018 election.
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Pennsylvania Department of State, "Unofficial Candidate Listing – Pre Ballot Lottery," accessed February 17, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "Pennsylvania Primary Results," April 26, 2016
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Pennsylvania," accessed January 3, 2018
- ↑ Pennsylvania Demographics, "Pennsylvania Cities by Population," accessed January 3, 2018
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