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Primary election competitiveness in state government, 2025
| 2025 Elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose your state: | |
Ballotpedia's 2025 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative and state executive elections taking place in 2025.
This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections are using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures.
Ballotpedia has published comprehensive competitiveness data from each election cycle since 2010. In 2025, this includes data from state legislative and state executive filings in odd-numbered years.
On this page you will find:
- Aggregate primary competitiveness data, including historical comparisons with odd-year election cycles since 2015. Click here to view the most recent even-year analysis.
- Primary competitiveness by office type
- State-specific competitiveness figures. Four—Georgia, New Jersey, Virginia, Wisconsin—are holding state elections in 2025.
- An overview of this analysis' methodology and definitions
Overview
The following statistics aggregate primary election competitiveness data across all states with completed filing deadlines unless otherwise noted. Corresponding data from odd-numbered years since 2011 are provided for comparative purposes.
The table below shows aggregate primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office from New Jersey, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
| 2025 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||
| State executive | 5 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 55.6% | 1 | 50.0% | |||
| State legislative | 140 | 180 | 8 | 383 | 280 | 32 | 14 | 0 | 16.4% | 38 | 22.1% | |||
| Total | 145 | 185 | 11 | 410 | 289 | 35 | 15 | 1 | 17.6% | 39 | 22.4% | |||
2023
Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia held state primary elections in 2025. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.
| 2023 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||
| State executive | 35 | 35 | 16 | 122 | 55 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 36.4% | 7 | 36.8% | |||
| State legislative | 538 | 578 | 138 | 1,099 | 877 | 62 | 66 | 76 | 23.3% | 115 | 26.0% | |||
| Total | 573 | 613 | 154 | 1,221 | 932 | 65 | 76 | 83 | 24.0% | 122 | 26.4% | |||
2021
New Jersey, Virginia, and Wisconsin held state primary elections in 2021. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.
| 2021 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||
| State executive | 5 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 83.3% | 1 | 50.0% | |||
| State legislative | 180 | 220 | 17 | 491 | 332 | 27 | 17 | 0 | 13.3% | 40 | 19.7% | |||
| Total | 185 | 225 | 20 | 520 | 338 | 30 | 18 | 1 | 14.5% | 41 | 20.0% | |||
2019
Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia held state primary elections in 2019. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.
| 2019 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||
| State executive | 35 | 35 | 14 | 128 | 55 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 69.1% | 14 | 66.7% | |||
| State legislative | 498 | 538 | 105 | 1,091 | 850 | 67 | 56 | 92 | 25.3% | 125 | 28.9% | |||
| Total | 533 | 573 | 119 | 1,219 | 905 | 77 | 70 | 106 | 28.0% | 139 | 30.6% | |||
2017
New Jersey, Virginia, and Wisconsin held state primary elections in 2017. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.
| 2017 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||
| State executive | 5 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 77.8% | 1 | 50.0% | |||
| State legislative | 180 | 220 | 20 | 472 | 352 | 33 | 18 | 0 | 14.5% | 32 | 16.0% | |||
| Total | 185 | 225 | 23 | 500 | 361 | 36 | 21 | 1 | 16.1% | 33 | 16.3% | |||
2015
Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia held state primary elections in 2015. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.
| 2015 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||
| State executive | 24 | 24 | 9 | 87 | 41 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 58.5% | 10 | 66.7% | |||
| State legislative | 498 | 538 | 79 | 994 | 852 | 49 | 50 | 70 | 19.8% | 107 | 23.3% | |||
| Total | 522 | 562 | 88 | 1,081 | 893 | 55 | 61 | 77 | 21.6% | 117 | 24.6% | |||
2013
New Jersey, Virginia, and Wisconsin held state primary elections in 2013. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.
| 2013 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||
| State executive | 5 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | 1 | 50.0% | |||
| State legislative | 180 | 220 | 15 | 428 | 360 | 12 | 20 | 0 | 8.9% | 24 | 11.7% | |||
| Total | 185 | 225 | 18 | 442 | 366 | 15 | 21 | 0 | 9.8% | 25 | 12.1% | |||
2011
Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia held state primary elections in 2011. Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from that year.
| 2011 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||
| State executive | 24 | 24 | 7 | 81 | 41 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 53.7% | 8 | 47.1% | |||
| State legislative | 538 | 578 | 98 | 1,112 | 874 | 48 | 65 | 81 | 22.2% | 104 | 21.4% | |||
| Total | 562 | 602 | 105 | 1,193 | 915 | 54 | 76 | 86 | 23.6% | 112 | 22.3% | |||
Breakdown by office
The tables below show primary competitiveness statistics overall and broken down by office type. They include data from New Jersey, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Figures are shown as percentages with overall figures shown first. Click [show] on the bars beneath the table to view statistics by office type.
| Comparison of overall primary competitiveness percentages, 2011-2025 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2017 | 2019 | 2021 | 2023 | 2025 | Total | ||||||
| Open seats (%) | 17.4% | 8.0% | 15.7% | 10.2% | 20.8% | 8.9% | 25.1% | 5.9% | 16.8% | |||||
| Total primaries (%) | 23.6% | 9.8% | 21.6% | 16.1% | 28.0% | 14.5% | 24.0% | 17.6% | 21.6% | |||||
| Inc. in contested primaries (%) | 22.3% | 12.1% | 24.6% | 16.3% | 30.6% | 20.0% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 23.4% | |||||
| State executive | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2017 | 2019 | 2021 | 2023 | 2025 | Average | ||||||
| Open seats (%) | 29.2% | 60.0% | 37.5% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 45.7% | 60.0% | 42.0% | |||||
| Total primaries (%) | 53.7% | 66.7% | 58.5% | 77.8% | 69.1% | 83.3% | 36.4% | 55.6% | 56.3% | |||||
| Inc. in contested primaries (%) | 47.1% | 50.0% | 66.7% | 50.0% | 66.7% | 50.0% | 36.8% | 50.0% | 53.8% | |||||
| State legislative | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2017 | 2019 | 2021 | 2023 | 2025 | Average | ||||||
| Open seats (%) | 17.0% | 6.8% | 14.7% | 9.1% | 19.5% | 7.7% | 23.9% | 4.4% | 15.6% | |||||
| Total primaries (%) | 22.2% | 8.9% | 19.8% | 14.5% | 25.3% | 13.3% | 23.3% | 16.4% | 20.0% | |||||
| Inc. in contested primaries (%) | 21.4% | 11.7% | 23.3% | 16.0% | 28.9% | 19.7% | 26.0% | 22.1% | 22.5% | |||||
The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics broken down by office type. The figures shown are total numbers. This analysis uses the following definitions:
- Total candidates: the total number of major party candidates running in primary elections.[1]
- Total seats: the total number of seats or offices up for election with the possibility of a primary election.
- Open seats: the total number of seats, out of the total seats figure, where the incumbent did not file to run for re-election or filed to run for re-election but withdrew before the primary filing deadline.
- Incumbents contested: the total number of incumbents in contested primaries.
- Democratic/Republican/Top-two primaries: the total number of these types of primaries where at least one candidate could have failed to advance to the general election.
- Total primaries: a combination of all Democratic, Republican, and top-two primaries where at least one candidate could have failed to advance to the general election.
State executive
Breakdown by state
Methodology
This section provides state-specific data on primary competitiveness numbers. Each section contains a state overview as well as state-specific looks at the two categories of elections covered in this analysis: state executive and state legislative.
For each state, the categories of elections are shown as historical tables with data from previous election cycles where races in that category were up for election. All 2025 numbers reflect races where there was, or could have been, a primary. It does not include numbers for races that use conventions or some other method as the sole form of nomination to the general election ballot. Due to the expansion of Ballotpedia's coverage and changes made to the competitiveness analysis, previous years' numbers may vary. Common reasons include the exclusion of offices that were outside of Ballotpedia's coverage at the time and the inclusion of races that use conventions or some other method as the sole means of nomination.
If you have any questions about the methodology used in this analysis, please email us.
Definitions
Click "Show more" below to view definitions of terms and metrics used in this analysis.
- Districts/offices: the number of districts or offices up for election. Since some state legislative districts and state executive offices are represented by more than one officeholder, this number may be smaller than the number of seats.
- Seats: the number of seats up for election.
- Open seats: the number of open seats. This analysis defines a seat as open if the incumbent did not file to run for re-election or filed but withdrew and did not appear on any ballot for the district/office.[2]
- Candidates: the number of candidates participating in primaries. If the race is a top-two primary, all candidates are counted. In all other primaries, only major-party candidates are counted.[3]
- Possible primaries: this figure reflects the number of major-party primaries that are possible. In most cases, this figure is twice the number of districts/offices up for election, since every district could have a Democratic and a Republican primary. If top-two primaries are used, there is only one primary per district/office. If a convention is the only method of nomination, it is not counted as a possible primary.[4][5]
- Contested Democratic/Republican/top-two primaries: these figures show the total number of primaries where at least one candidate will be defeated, meaning there are more candidates in the primary than there are seats. In Louisiana, if a race involves more than one candidate, it is counted as having a contested primary due to the state's unique majority-vote system.
- % of contested primaries: calculated by dividing the sum of all contested primaries by the number of possible primaries.
- Incumbents in contested primaries: the number of incumbents who appear on a primary ballot where he or she could be defeated.[6]
- % of incumbents in contested primaries: calculated by dividing the number of incumbents in contested primaries by the number of incumbents seeking re-election.[7]
New Jersey
New Jersey's primary filing deadline was on March 24, 2025. Candidates filed to run for state legislative offices.
The table below shows cumulative primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office in this state.
| New Jersey primary competitiveness, 2025 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | ||||
| State executives | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.00% | ||||
| State legislatures | 40 | 80 | 4 | 202 | 80 | 23 | 6 | 36.3% | 35 | 46.1% | ||||
| Totals | 41 | 81 | 5 | 213 | 82 | 24 | 7 | 37.8% | 35 | 46.1% | ||||
State executives
| New Jersey state executive competitiveness, 2013-2025 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | ||||
| 2025 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | ||||
| 2021 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 0.0% | ||||
| 2017 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | ||||
| 2013 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 100.0% | ||||
State legislature
| New Jersey state legislative competitiveness, 2011-2025 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | ||||
| 2025 | 40 | 80 | 4 | 202 | 80 | 23 | 6 | 36.3% | 35 | 46.1% | ||||
| 2023 | 80 | 120 | 28 | 260 | 160 | 12 | 9 | 13.1% | 17 | 18.3% | ||||
| 2021 | 80 | 120 | 12 | 176 | 160 | 9 | 3 | 7.5% | 10 | 12.0% | ||||
| 2019 | 40 | 80 | 4 | 178 | 80 | 13 | 3 | 20.0% | 25 | 32.9% | ||||
| 2017 | 80 | 120 | 13 | 272 | 160 | 14 | 11 | 15.6% | 26 | 24.3% | ||||
| 2015 | 40 | 80 | 7 | 171 | 80 | 3 | 2 | 6.3% | 7 | 9.6% | ||||
| 2013 | 80 | 120 | 6 | 268 | 160 | 9 | 11 | 12.5% | 17 | 14.9% | ||||
| 2011 | 80 | 120 | 15 | 269 | 160 | 11 | 14 | 15.6% | 18 | 17.0% | ||||
Virginia
Virginia's primary filing deadline was on April 3, 2025. Candidates filed to run for state legislative and executive offices.
The table below shows cumulative primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office in this state.
| Virginia primary competitiveness, 2025 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | ||||
| State executives | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | 0 | 0% | ||||
| State legislatures | 100 | 100 | 4 | 181 | 200 | 9 | 8 | 8.5% | 3 | 3.1% | ||||
| Totals | 103 | 103 | 6 | 194 | 206 | 11 | 8 | 9.2% | 3 | 3.1% | ||||
State legislature
| Virginia state legislative competitiveness, 2011-2025 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | ||||
| 2025 | 100 | 100 | 4 | 181 | 200 | 9 | 8 | 8.5% | 3 | 3.1% | ||||
| 2023 | 140 | 140 | 44 | 293 | 225 | 31 | 16 | 20.9% | 17 | 17.3% | ||||
| 2021 | 100 | 100 | 5 | 222 | 172 | 18 | 7 | 14.5% | 17 | 17.9% | ||||
| 2019 | 140 | 140 | 16 | 266 | 278 | 23 | 12 | 12.6% | 14 | 11.3% | ||||
| 2017 | 100 | 100 | 7 | 197 | 192 | 19 | 7 | 13.5% | 6 | 6.5% | ||||
| 2015 | 140 | 140 | 15 | 220 | 280 | 9 | 9 | 6.4% | 10 | 8.0% | ||||
| 2013 | 100 | 100 | 9 | 158 | 200 | 3 | 9 | 6.0% | 7 | 7.7% | ||||
| 2011 | 140 | 140 | 20 | 213 | 222 | 4 | 12 | 7.2% | 2 | 1.6% | ||||
State executives
| Virginia state executive competitiveness, 2013-2025 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | ||||
| 2025 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% | 0 | 0.0% | ||||
| 2021 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 100.0% | ||||
| 2017 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 0.0% | ||||
| 2013 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 66.7% | 0 | 0.0% | ||||
Wisconsin
Wisconsin's primary filing deadline was on January 7, 2025. Candidates filed to run for state executive office.
The table below shows cumulative primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office in this state.
| Wisconsin state executive competitiveness, 2013-2025 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||||
| 2025 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 100.0% | |||||
| 2021 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | |||||
| 2017 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 100.0% | |||||
| 2013 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | |||||
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ In top-two primaries, all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, are counted. If a convention is the sole means of nomination, only the candidate(s) advancing beyond the convention are counted.
- ↑ If an incumbent withdrew from or did not participate in a primary, but later chose to run for re-election as a minor party or independent candidate, his or her seat would not be counted as open.
- ↑ If a convention is the sole means of nomination, only the candidate(s) advancing beyond the convention are counted.
- ↑ For example, if there are 50 districts up for election, there would be 100 possible primaries. If Democrats in five districts and Republicans in two districts chose to nominate candidates via a convention, the number of possible primaries would decrease to 93
((50 * 2) - 7). - ↑ If conventions are used, but could still result in a primary, that is included as a possible primary even if the convention did not proceed to a primary. For example, in some states a candidate can advance to the general election from a convention outright if he or she receives a certain percentage of the vote. If that percentage is not met, the race may proceed to a primary.
- ↑ Incumbents participating in contested nominating conventions are not included in this total. If the incumbent participates in a convention and advances to a contested primary, he or she would be included. This figure include all incumbents whose name appear on a contested primary ballot even if that incumbent passed away or unofficially withdrew before the election.
- ↑ Incumbents seeking re-election can typically be calculated by subtracting the number of open seats from the number of total seats.
