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Presidential election in Montana, 2016

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General election in Montana
  Date: November 8, 2016
2016 winner: Donald Trump
Electoral votes: 3
2012 winner: Mitt Romney (R)
Democratic Primary
  Date: June 7, 2016
Winner: Bernie Sanders
Republican Primary
  Date: June 7, 2016
Winner: Donald Trump
Down ballot races in Montana
  U.S. House
Governor
State executives
Montana State Senate
Montana House of Representatives
Montana judicial elections
Montana local judicial elections
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Montana held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. Democratic and Republican primaries took place in Montana on June 7, 2016.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Donald Trump won Montana in the general election. In 2016, Montana had three electoral votes, which was 0.5 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 1.1 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Between 1900 and 2016, Montana cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 80 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Montana supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 66.67 to 33.33 percent. The state favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.
  • Democratic and Republican primaries took place in Montana on June 7, 2016. Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 51.6 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 73.7 percent of the vote.

    • General election candidates and results

    Candidates

    See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

    The candidate list below is based on an official list on the Montana secretary of state website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the official list—not necessarily the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November. Write-in candidates were not included in the list below.

    Presidential candidates on the ballot in Montana

    ☐ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic)
    ☐ Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg (American Delta)
    ☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)
    ☐ Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green)
    ☑ Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)

    Results

    U.S. presidential election, Montana, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 35.7% 177,709 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump/Mike Pence 56.2% 279,240 3
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 5.6% 28,037 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 1.6% 7,970 0
         American Delta Roque De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg 0.3% 1,570 0
         - Other/Write-in 0.5% 2,621 0
    Total Votes 497,147 3
    Election results via: Federal Election Commission

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, in 34 states.[1] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government for the next four years.

    Historical election trends

    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of Montana's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in Montana, 1900-2016

    Between 1900 and 2016:

    • Montana participated in 30 presidential elections.
    • Montana voted for the winning presidential candidate 80 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 72.31 percent.[2]
    • Montana voted Democratic 33.33 percent of the time and Republican 66.67 percent of the time.

    Presidential election voting record in Montana, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    Election results

    2012

    U.S. presidential election, Montana, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent 41.7% 201,839 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMitt Romney/Paul Ryan 55.4% 267,928 3
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/James Gray 2.9% 14,165 0
    Total Votes 483,932 3
    Election results via: Montana Secretary of State

    2008

    U.S. presidential election, Montana, 2008
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Barack Obama/Joe Biden 47.3% 231,667 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain/Sarah Palin 49.5% 242,763 3
         Independent Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez 0.8% 3,686 0
         Libertarian Bob Barr/Wayne Root 0.3% 1,355 0
         Constitution Ron Paul/Michael Peroutka 2.2% 10,638 0
    Total Votes 490,109 3
    Election results via: Montana Secretary of State

    Electoral votes

    See also: Electoral College

    The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

    Montana electors

    In 2016, Montana had three electoral votes. Montana's share of electoral votes represented 0.5 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 1.1 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president.

    "Faithless electors"

    The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

    Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[4][5]

    Montana was one of 31 states—including the District of Columbia—in 2016 with a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.

    Down ballot races

    See also: Montana elections, 2016

    Below is a list of down ballot races in Montana covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

    Primary election

    Quick facts

    Democrats:
    • 2016 Democratic winner: Bernie Sanders
    • 2008 Democratic winner: Barack Obama
    • Type: Open Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 21
    		 Republicans
    • 2016 Republican winner: Donald Trump
    • 2012 Republican winner: Mitt Romney
    • Type: Open Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Winner take all
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 27

    Democrats

    Bernie Sanders won the Montana Democratic primary, defeating Hillary Clinton by roughly five points. A total of 21 pledged delegates were up for grabs in Montana alongside six superdelegates. As of the day of the Montana primary, the support of all six of the state's superdelegates was unknown. Sanders' victory in Montana came after The Associated Press declared on June 6 that Clinton had secured enough pledged delegates and superdelegates to clinch the Democratic nomination.

    Republicans

    Donald Trump won the Montana Republican primary with more than 70 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz and John Kasich—both of whom suspended their campaigns in May 2016—came in second and third place, respectively. A total of 27 delegates were at stake. Trump received all of them.

    June 7 primaries

    Five other states held presidential primary elections or caucuses for the Democratic and Republican parties on June 7, 2016: California, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

    2016 primary results

    Democrats

    Montana Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngBernie Sanders 51.6% 65,156 11
    Hillary Clinton 44.2% 55,805 10
    Other 4.3% 5,415 0
    Totals 126,376 21
    Source: The New York Times and Montana Secretary of State

    Republicans

    Montana Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump 73.7% 115,594 27
    Ted Cruz 9.4% 14,682 0
    John Kasich 6.9% 10,777 0
    Jeb Bush 2.1% 3,274 0
    Marco Rubio 3.3% 5,192 0
    Other 4.7% 7,369 0
    Totals 156,888 27
    Source: The New York Times and Montana Secretary of State

    Primary candidates

    Democrats[6]

    Hillary Clinton


    Bernie Sanders

    Republicans[6]

    Jeb Bush
    Ted Cruz


    John Kasich
    Marco Rubio


    Donald Trump

    Delegates

    Delegate selection

    See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules

    Democratic Party

    Democratic Party Logo.png

    Montana had 27 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Of this total, 21 were pledged delegates. National party rules stipulated how Democratic delegates in all states were allocated. Pledged delegates were allocated to a candidate in proportion to the votes he or she received in a state's primary or caucus. A candidate was eligible to receive a share of the state's pledged delegates if he or she won at least 15 percent of the votes cast in the primary or caucus. There were three types of pledged Democratic delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates, and party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). Congressional district delegates were allocated proportionally based on the primary or caucus results in a given district. At-large and PLEO delegates were allocated proportionally based on statewide primary results.[7][8]

    Six party leaders and elected officials served as unpledged delegates. These delegates were not required to adhere to the results of a state's primary or caucus.[7][9]

    Montana superdelegates

    See also: Superdelegates from Montana, 2016 and Superdelegates and the 2016 Democratic National Convention

    Republican Party

    Logo-GOP.png

    Montana had 27 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, three were district-level delegates (representing the state's single congressional district), and 21 served as at-large delegates. Montana's district and at-large delegates were allocated on a winner-take-all basis; the plurality winner of the statewide primary vote received all of the state's district and at-large delegates.[10][11]

    In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention. The RNC delegates were required to pledge their support to the winner of the state's primary.[10][11]

    Republican delegates

    See also: Republican delegates from Montana, 2016 and RNC delegate guidelines from Montana, 2016

    Presidential voting history

    Montana presidential election results (1900-2024)

    • 10 Democratic wins
    • 21 Republican wins
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
    Winning Party D R R D D R R R D D D D D R R R D R R R R R R D R R R R R R R R

    State profile

    Demographic data for Montana
     MontanaU.S.
    Total population:1,032,073316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):145,5463,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:89.2%73.6%
    Black/African American:0.5%12.6%
    Asian:0.7%5.1%
    Native American:6.5%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
    Two or more:2.5%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:3.3%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:92.8%86.7%
    College graduation rate:29.5%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$47,169$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:17%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Montana.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in Montana

    Montana voted Republican in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

    Pivot Counties (2016)

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, three are located in Montana, accounting for 1.46 percent of the total pivot counties.[12]

    Pivot Counties (2020)

    In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Montana had two Retained Pivot Counties and one Boomerang Pivot County, accounting for 1.10 and 4.00 percent of all Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties, respectively.

    More Montana coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    2. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2016. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
    3. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
    4. ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
    5. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
    6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 Montana Secretary of State, " 2016 Candidate Filing List: Non-Legislative," accessed March 21, 2016
    7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 Democratic National Committee, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," updated February 19, 2016
    8. ↑ The Green Papers, "2016 Democratic Convention," accessed May 7, 2021
    9. ↑ Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "Unpledged Delegates -- By State," May 27, 2016
    10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 Republican National Committee, "2016 Presidential Nominating Process," accessed October 6, 2015
    11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 CNN.com, "Republican National Convention roll call vote," accessed July 20, 2016
    12. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
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    The media's coverage of Donald Trump • The media's coverage of Hillary Clinton

    Post-debate analysis overview
    Democratic: April 14, 2016 (CNN) • March 9, 2016 (Univision) • March 6, 2016 (CNN) • February 11, 2016 (PBS) • February 4, 2016 (MSNBC) • January 17, 2016 (NBC) • December 19, 2015 (ABC) • November 14, 2015 (CBS) • October 13, 2015 (CNN)
    Republican: March 10, 2016 (CNN) • March 3, 2016 (FNC) • February 25, 2016 (CNN) • February 13, 2016 (CBS) • February 6, 2016 (ABC) • January 28, 2016 (FNC) • January 14, 2016 (FBN) • December 15, 2015 (CNN) • November 10, 2015 (FBN) • October 28, 2015 (CNBC) • September 16, 2015 (CNN)

    Insiders Poll: First Democratic debate (October 13, 2015) • Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton remains choice of Democratic Insiders • Presidential Nominating Index: Bush remains choice of Republican Insiders • Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the Fox News Republican Debate


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