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Presidential election in Arkansas, 2016

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General election in Arkansas
  Date: November 8, 2016
2016 winner: Donald Trump
Electoral votes: Six
2012 winner: Mitt Romney (R)
Democratic Primary
  Date: March 1, 2016
Winner: Hillary Clinton
Republican Primary
  Date: March 1, 2016
Winner: Donald Trump
Down ballot races in Arkansas
  U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Arkansas State Senate
Arkansas House of Representatives
Arkansas judicial elections
Arkansas local judicial elections
State ballot measures
School boards
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Arkansas held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. The Democratic and Republican parties held primary elections for president on March 1, 2016.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Donald Trump won Arkansas in the general election.
  • In 2016, Arkansas had six electoral votes, which was 1.1 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 2.2 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Between 1900 and 2016, Arkansas cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 63.33 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Arkansas supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 66.67 to 30 percent. The state, however, favored Republican candidates in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.
  • Presidential primary elections in Arkansas took place on March 1, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary with 66.3 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 32.8 percent.

    • General election candidates and results

    See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

    The candidate list below is based on an official list on the Arkansas secretary of state website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the official list—not necessarily the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November.

    Presidential candidates on the ballot in Arkansas

    ☐ Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley (Constitution)
    ☐ Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson (Better for America)[1]
    ☐ Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green)
    ☐ Lynn S. Kahn/Kathleen Monahan (Independent)
    ☐ Jim Hedges/Bill Bayes (Independent)
    ☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)
    ☐ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic)
    ☑ Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)

    Results

    U.S. presidential election, Arkansas, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 33.7% 380,494 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump/Mike Pence 60.6% 684,872 6
         Constitution Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley 0.4% 4,613 0
         Independent Jim Hedges/Bill Bayes 0.4% 4,709 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 2.6% 29,829 0
         Independent Lynn S. Kahn/Kathleen Monahan 0.3% 3,390 0
         Better for America Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson 1.2% 13,255 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 0.8% 9,473 0
    Total Votes 1,130,635 6
    Election results via: Arkansas Secretary of State

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, in 34 states.[2] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government for the next four years.

    Historical election trends

    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of Arkansas's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in Arkansas, 1900-2016

    Between 1900 and 2016:

    • Arkansas participated in 30 presidential elections.
    • Arkansas voted for the winning presidential candidate 63.33 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 72.31 percent.[3]
    • Arkansas voted Democratic 66.67 percent of the time and Republican 30 percent of the time.

    Third party votes

    In 1968, Richard Nixon ran as the Republican, Hubert H. Humphrey ran as the Democrat, and George Wallace ran under the American Independent Party and won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi.[4]

    Presidential election voting record in Arkansas, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    Election results

    2012

    U.S. presidential election, Arkansas, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent 36.9% 394,409 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMitt Romney/Paul Ryan 60.6% 647,744 6
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Jim Gray 1.5% 16,276 0
         Green Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala 0.9% 9,305 0
         Socialist Peta Lindsay / Yari Osorio 0.2% 1,734 0
    Total Votes 1,069,468 6
    Election results via: Arkansas Secretary of State

    2008

    U.S. presidential election, Arkansas, 2008
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Barack Obama/Joe Biden 38.9% 422,310 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain/Sarah Palin 58.7% 638,017 6
         Independent Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez 1.2% 12,882 0
         Libertarian Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root 0.4% 4,776 0
         Constitution Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle 0.4% 4,023 0
         Green Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente 0.3% 3,470 0
         Socialism & Liberation Gloria La Riva/Eugene Puryear 0.1% 1,139 0
    Total Votes 1,086,617 6
    Election results via: Arkansas Secretary of State

    Electoral votes

    See also: Electoral College

    The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

    Arkansas electors

    In 2016, Arkansas had six electoral votes. Arkansas's share of electoral votes represented 1.1 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 2.2 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president. Democratic and Republican electors in Arkansas were selected at state party conventions.

    "Faithless electors"

    The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

    Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[6][7]

    Arkansas was one of 20 states in 2016 without a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.

    Down ballot races

    See also: Arkansas elections, 2016

    Below is a list of down ballot races in Arkansas covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

    Primary election

    Quick facts

    Democrats: Republicans
    • 2016 Republican winner: Donald Trump
    • Poll leader: Ted Cruz
    • 2012 Republican winner: Mitt Romney
    • Type: Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional*
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 40
    • Total delegates at stake: 40

    *The Arkansas GOP includes a provision in its nominating rules allowing any candidate who wins 50 percent of the vote cast within the state or each of the congressional districts to receive all of the state’s at-large and congressional district delegates. For more on this provision, see here.

    Democrats

    Hillary Clinton won Arkansas' 2016 Democratic presidential primary.[8] Clinton was the first lady of Arkansas from 1983 to 1992. She had an overwhelming victory in Arkansas in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, winning 69.7 percent of votes cast; Barack Obama won 26.6 percent.[9]

    Exit polls conducted by CNN in 2016 showed that Clinton won the support of 72 percent of women and 78 percent of voters over age 45. Clinton had overwhelming support from black voters in Arkansas, winning 88 percent.[10]

    Reublicans

    Donald Trump won Arkansas' 2016 Republican primary.[11] Exit polling conducted by CNN showed that Trump won 38 percent of voters who are not college graduates, while Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio split the college graduate vote with 30 percent each. Trump did well with both the state's wealthiest and least wealthy voters, winning the support of 38 percent of voters earning less than $50,000 and 33 percent of voters earning more than $100,000. Cruz outperformed Trump with voters in the $50,000 to $100,000 income range, winning 35 percent. Cruz topped Trump among Republicans; he won the support of 33 percent while Trump won 31 percent. Trump topped Cruz among Independents, winning 35 percent. Cruz had the support of 44 percent of very conservative voters. Trump fared better with somewhat conservative and moderate voters.[12]

    Primary results

    Democrats

    Arkansas Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton 66.3% 144,580 22
    Bernie Sanders 29.7% 64,868 10
    Martin O'Malley 1.3% 2,764 0
    John Wolfe 1.2% 2,541 0
    James Valentine 0.8% 1,687 0
    Rocky De La Fuente 0.8% 1,680 0
    Totals 218,120 32
    Source: The New York Times

    Republicans

    Arkansas Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump 32.8% 133,144 16
    Ted Cruz 30.5% 123,873 15
    Marco Rubio 24.9% 101,235 9
    Ben Carson 5.7% 23,173 0
    John Kasich 3.7% 15,098 0
    Mike Huckabee 1.2% 4,703 0
    Jeb Bush 0.6% 2,406 0
    Rand Paul 0.3% 1,127 0
    Chris Christie 0.2% 651 0
    Carly Fiorina 0.1% 409 0
    Rick Santorum 0.1% 286 0
    Lindsey Graham 0.1% 250 0
    Bobby Jindal 0% 167 0
    Totals 406,522 40
    Source: The New York Times

    Candidate list

    Democrats[13]

    Hillary Clinton
    Roque De La Fuente


    Martin O'Malley
    Bernie Sanders


    James Valentine
    John Wolfe

    Republicans[13]

    Jeb Bush
    Ben Carson
    Chris Christie
    Ted Cruz
    Carly Fiorina


    Lindsey Graham
    Mike Huckabee
    Bobby Jindal
    John Kasich


    Rand Paul
    Marco Rubio
    Rick Santorum
    Donald Trump

    Polls

    Democratic primary

    Democratic Party Democratic Party presidential primary polling (Arkansas)
    Poll Hillary Clinton Bernie SandersUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Public Policy Polling
    February 14-16, 2016    		57%32%11%+/-4.3525
    Talk Business and Politics
    February 4, 2016    		57%25%18%+/-3.3451
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Republican primary

    Republican Party Republican Party presidential primary polling (Arkansas)
    Poll Ted Cruz Marco RubioDonald TrumpBen CarsonJohn KasichJeb BushUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Talk Business and Politics
    February 4, 2016    		27%23%23%11%4%1%11%+/-3.3457
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Delegates

    Delegate selection

    Democratic Party

    Democratic Party Logo.png

    Arkansas had 37 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Of this total, 32 were pledged delegates. National party rules stipulated how Democratic delegates in all states were allocated. Pledged delegates were allocated to a candidate in proportion to the votes he or she received in a state's primary or caucus. A candidate was eligible to receive a share of the state's pledged delegates if he or she won at least 15 percent of the votes cast in the primary or caucus. There were three types of pledged Democratic delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates, and party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). Congressional district delegates were allocated proportionally based on the primary or caucus results in a given district. At-large and PLEO delegates were allocated proportionally based on statewide primary results.[14][15]

    Five party leaders and elected officials served as unpledged delegates. These delegates were not required to adhere to the results of a state's primary or caucus.[14][16]

    Arkansas superdelegates

    See also: Superdelegates from Arkansas, 2016 and Superdelegates and the 2016 Democratic National Convention

    Republican Party

    Logo-GOP.png

    Arkansas had 40 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, 12 were district-level delegates (three for each of the state's four congressional districts). District-level delegates were allocated on a proportional basis; the highest vote-getter in a district received two of that district's delegates, and the second highest vote-getter received the remaining delegate. If a candidate won more than 50 percent of the vote in a district, he or she received all three of that district's delegates.[17][18]

    Of the remaining 28 delegates, 25 served at large. At-large delegates were allocated on a proportional basis; a candidate had to win at least 15 percent of the statewide vote in order to receive any at-large delegates. Each candidate who met the 15 percent threshold received one delegate. If a candidate won more than 50 percent of the statewide vote, he or she was allocated the remaining at-large delegates. If no candidate won a majority of the statewide vote, the unallocated at-large delegates were divided proportionally among those candidates who met the 15 percent threshold. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention.[17][18]

    Arkansas Delegates

    Presidential voting history

    Arkansas presidential election results (1900-2024)

    • 20 Democratic wins
    • 11 Republican wins
    • 1 other win
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
    Winning Party D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D AI[19] R D R R R D D R R R R R R R

    State profile

    Demographic data for Arkansas
     ArkansasU.S.
    Total population:2,977,853316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):52,0353,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:78%73.6%
    Black/African American:15.5%12.6%
    Asian:1.4%5.1%
    Native American:0.6%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0.2%0.2%
    Two or more:2.1%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:6.9%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:84.8%86.7%
    College graduation rate:21.1%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$41,371$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:22.9%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arkansas.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in Arkansas

    Arkansas voted Republican in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

    Pivot Counties (2016)

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, one is located in Arkansas, accounting for 0.5 percent of the total pivot counties.[20]

    Pivot Counties (2020)

    In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Arkansas had one Retained Pivot County, 0.55 percent of all Retained Pivot Counties.

    More Arkansas coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ On October 6, 2016, Evan McMullin announced Mindy Finn as his official running mate. As of October 10, 2016, Ballotpedia was not aware of any changes to this state's official list of certified presidential candidates.
    2. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    3. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2016. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
    4. ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1964-1972," accessed June 21, 2016
    5. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
    6. ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
    7. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
    8. ↑ CNN, "2016 Election Center," March 1, 2016
    9. ↑ The New York Times, “Election 2008: Arkansas Primary Results,” accessed February 29, 2016
    10. ↑ CNN, "Arkansas Exit Polls," March 1, 2016
    11. ↑ The New York Times, "Arkansas Primary Election," March 1, 2016
    12. ↑ CNN, "Arkansas Exit Polls," March 1, 2016
    13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 Arkansas Secretary of State, "Candidate Information," accessed November 10, 2015
    14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 Democratic National Committee, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," updated February 19, 2016
    15. ↑ The Green Papers, "2016 Democratic Convention," accessed May 7, 2021
    16. ↑ Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "Unpledged Delegates -- By State," May 27, 2016
    17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 Republican National Committee, "2016 Presidential Nominating Process," accessed October 6, 2015
    18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 CNN.com, "Republican National Convention roll call vote," accessed July 20, 2016
    19. ↑ American Independent Party
    20. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
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    Insiders Poll: First Democratic debate (October 13, 2015) • Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton remains choice of Democratic Insiders • Presidential Nominating Index: Bush remains choice of Republican Insiders • Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the Fox News Republican Debate


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