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Presidential election in Arizona, 2016

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General election in Arizona
  Date: November 8, 2016
2016 winner: Donald Trump
Electoral votes: 11
2012 winner: Mitt Romney (R)
Democratic Primary
  Date: March 22, 2016
Winner: Hillary Clinton
Republican Primary
  Date: March 22, 2016
Winner: Donald Trump
Down ballot races in Arizona
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See also: Presidential battleground states, 2016

Arizona held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. Democratic and Republican primaries in Arizona took place on March 22, 2016. Arizona was a key battleground state in the 2016 presidential election.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Donald Trump won Arizona in the general election.
  • In 2016, Arizona had 11 electoral votes, which was 2 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Between 1912—the first year Arizona cast electoral votes in a general election for president—and 2016, Arizona voted for the winning presidential candidate 77.78 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Arizona supported Republican candidates more often than Democratic candidates, 66.67 to 33.33 percent. The state favored Republican candidates in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.
  • Presidential primary elections in Arizona took place on March 22, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary with 56.3 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 45.9 percent.

    • General election candidates and results

    See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

    The candidate list below is based on an official list on the Arizona secretary of state website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the official list—not necessarily the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November.

    Presidential candidates on the ballot in Arizona

    ☑ Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)
    ☐ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic)
    ☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)
    ☐ Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green)

    Results

    U.S. presidential election, Arizona, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 45.1% 1,161,167 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump/Mike Pence 48.7% 1,252,401 11
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 4.1% 106,327 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 1.3% 34,345 0
         Other Write-in votes 0.7% 18,925 0
    Total Votes 2,573,165 11
    Election results via: Arizona Secretary of State

    Historical election trends

    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of Arizona's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in Arizona, 1912-2016

    Between 1912 and 2016:

    • Arizona participated in 27 presidential elections. Its first was in 1912.
    • Arizona voted for the winning presidential candidate 77.78 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states between 1900 and 2012 was 72.38 percent.[1]
    • Arizona voted Democratic 33.33 percent of the time and Republican 66.67 percent of the time.

    Presidential election voting record in Arizona, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    Election results

    2012

    2008

    Polling

    Arizona polls (2016)


    Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

    Electoral votes

    See also: Electoral College

    The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

    Arizona electors

    In 2016, Arizona had 11 electoral votes. Arizona's share of electoral votes represented 2 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 4 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president. Democratic and Republican electors in Arizona in 2016 were chosen by the chairmen of state political parties.

    "Faithless electors"

    The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

    Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[3][4]

    Arizona was one of 20 states in 2016 without a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.

    Down ballot races

    See also: Arizona elections, 2016

    Below is a list of down ballot races in Arizona covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

    Primary election (March 22, 2016)

    Quick facts

    Democrats: Republicans
    • 2016 Republican winner: Donald Trump
    • Poll leader: Donald Trump
    • 2012 Republican winner: Mitt Romney
    • Type: Closed Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Winner take all
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 58

    Democrats

    Hillary Clinton won the Arizona Democratic primary with almost 60 percent of the vote. She won every county in the state except for the northern county of Coconino, which Bernie Sanders won 53 to 44 percent. Clinton carried Arizona's two most populous counties—Maricopa and Pima—by substantial margins. She won Maricopa, where the city of Phoenix is located, by close to 20 points. She won Pima, home to the city of Tucson, by roughly 16 points. Clinton won Arizona in 2012 as well, though by a more narrow margin. She beat Barack Obama 50 to 42. Seventy-five delegates were up for grabs on March 22, 2016. They were allocated proportionally.

    Republicans

    Donald Trump won the Arizona Republican primary with roughly 47 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz came in second. Trump carried 14 of Arizona's 15 counties, narrowly losing Graham County in the southeastern part of the state to Cruz 40.2 to 40.1 percent. A total of four votes separated them. In Maricopa County, where Trump received an endorsement from the county's controversial sheriff, Joe Arpaio, Trump beat Cruz by more than 20 points. Fifty-eight delegates were at stake. For the Republicans, Arizona was a winner-take-all state, meaning the candidate who received a plurality of the vote won all 58 delegates.

    Because of heavy early and absentee voting in Arizona's Republican primary, Marco Rubio—who suspended his campaign on March 15, 2016—received almost 14 percent of the vote, giving him the third place spot over John Kasich.

    Two other western states also held primary contests on March 22: Idaho and Utah. American Samoa held a Republican territorial convention.

    2016 primary results

    Democrats

    Arizona Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton 56.3% 262,459 42
    Bernie Sanders 41.4% 192,962 33
    Roque De La Fuente 0.6% 2,797 0
    Henry Hewes 0.4% 1,845 0
    Martin O'Malley 0.8% 3,877 0
    Michael Steinberg 0.5% 2,295 0
    Totals 466,235 75
    Source: The New York Times and Arizona Secretary of State

    Republicans

    Arizona Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Jeb Bush 0.7% 4,393 0
    Ben Carson 2.4% 14,940 0
    Chris Christie 0.2% 988 0
    Tim Cook 0% 243 0
    Ted Cruz 27.6% 172,294 0
    Carly Fiorina 0.2% 1,270 0
    Lindsey Graham 0.1% 498 0
    Mike Huckabee 0.2% 1,300 0
    John Kasich 10.6% 65,965 0
    George Pataki 0% 309 0
    Rand Paul 0.4% 2,269 0
    Marco Rubio 11.6% 72,304 0
    Rick Santorum 0.1% 523 0
    Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump 45.9% 286,743 58
    Totals 624,039 58
    Source: The New York Times and Arizona Secretary of State

    Primary candidates

    Democrats[5]

    Hillary Clinton
    Roque De La Fuente


    Henry Hewes
    Martin O'Malley


    Bernie Sanders
    Michael Steinberg

    Republicans[6]

    Jeb Bush
    Ben Carson
    Chris Christie
    Tim Cook
    Ted Cruz


    Carly Fiorina
    Jim Gilmore
    Lindsey Graham
    Mike Huckabee
    John Kasich


    George Pataki
    Rand Paul
    Marco Rubio
    Rick Santorum
    Donald Trump

    Third party[7]

    Kent Mesplay (Green)


    Jill Stein (Green)


    Delegates

    Delegate selection

    See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules

    Democratic Party

    Democratic Party Logo.png

    Arizona had 85 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Of this total, 75 were pledged delegates. National party rules stipulated how Democratic delegates in all states were allocated. Pledged delegates were allocated to a candidate in proportion to the votes he or she received in a state's primary or caucus. A candidate was eligible to receive a share of the state's pledged delegates if he or she won at least 15 percent of the votes cast in the primary or caucus. There were three types of pledged Democratic delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates, and party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). Congressional district delegates were allocated proportionally based on the primary or caucus results in a given district. At-large and PLEO delegates were allocated proportionally based on statewide primary results.[8][9]

    Ten party leaders and elected officials served as unpledged delegates. These delegates were not required to adhere to the results of a state's primary or caucus.[8][10]

    Arizona superdelegates

    See also: Superdelegates from Arizona, 2016 and Superdelegates and the 2016 Democratic National Convention

    Republican Party

    Logo-GOP.png

    Arizona had 58 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, 27 were district-level delegates (three for each of the state's nine congressional districts). Arizona's district delegates were allocated on a winner-take-all basis; the candidate who won the plurality of the statewide vote received all of the state's district delegates.[11][12]

    Of the remaining 31 delegates, 28 served at large. At-large delegates were also allocated on a winner-take-all basis; the candidate who won the plurality of the statewide vote received all of the state's at-large delegates. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention. The RNC delegates were required to pledge their support to the winner of the state's primary.[11][12]

    Republican delegates

    See also: Republican delegates from Arizona, 2016 and RNC delegate guidelines from Arizona, 2016

    Polls

    Democratic primary

    Democratic Party Democratic Party presidential primary polling (Arizona)
    Poll Hillary Clinton Bernie SandersUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Merrill Poll
    March 7-March 11, 2016    		50%24%26%+/-5.4300
    MBQF consulting
    February 24, 2016    		56.2%21.5%22.3%+/-3.6739
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
    Democratic Party Democratic Party presidential favorability polling (Arizona)
    Poll Hillary Clinton Bernie SandersJoe BidenJim WebbLincoln ChafeeMartin O'MalleyMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Gravis Marketing
    August 13-16, 2015
    		56%34%6%1%2%1%+/-4.7427
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Republican primary

    Republican Party Republican Party presidential primary polling (Arizona)
    Poll Donald Trump Ted CruzJohn KasichUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Fox 10/Opinion Savvy
    March 20, 2016    		46%33%17%4%+/-4607
    Merrill Poll
    March 7-11, 2016    		31%19%10%40%+/-5.4300
    MBQF Consulting
    March 8, 2016    		37%23%15%25%+/-3.6751
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
    Republican Party Republican Party presidential favorability polling (Arizona)
    Poll Donald Trump Jeb BushScott WalkerBen CarsonMike HuckabeeMarco RubioTed CruzJohn KasichCarly FiorinaRand PaulUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Gravis Marketing
    August 13-16, 2015
    		33%10%4%16%4%6%8%4%11%2%2%+/-3.4842
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Presidential voting history

    Arizona presidential election results (1900-2024)

    • 9 Democratic wins
    • 20 Republican wins
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
    Winning Party N/A N/A N/A D D R R R D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R D R R R R R D R

    State profile

    Demographic data for Arizona
     ArizonaU.S.
    Total population:6,817,565316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):113,5943,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:78.4%73.6%
    Black/African American:4.2%12.6%
    Asian:3%5.1%
    Native American:4.4%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0.2%0.2%
    Two or more:3.2%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:30.3%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:86%86.7%
    College graduation rate:27.5%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$50,255$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:21.2%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in Arizona

    Arizona voted Republican in six out of the seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.


    More Arizona coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, Hawaii, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2012. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, and Alaska, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
    2. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
    3. ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
    4. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
    5. ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "Democratic Party Candidates - Presidential Preference Election 2016," accessed December 15, 2015
    6. ↑ Arizona Secretary of States, "Republican Party Candidates - Presidential Preference Election 2016," accessed December 15, 2015
    7. ↑ Arizona Secretary of States, "Green Party Candidates - Presidential Preference Election 2016," accessed December 15, 2015
    8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 Democratic National Committee, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," updated February 19, 2016
    9. ↑ The Green Papers, "2016 Democratic Convention," accessed May 7, 2021
    10. ↑ Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "Unpledged Delegates -- By State," May 27, 2016
    11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 Republican National Committee, "2016 Presidential Nominating Process," accessed October 6, 2015
    12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 CNN.com, "Republican National Convention roll call vote," accessed July 20, 2016
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