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Presidential election in Texas, 2016

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General election in Texas
  Date: November 8, 2016
2016 winner: Donald Trump
Electoral votes: 38
2012 winner: Mitt Romney (R)
Democratic primary
  Date: March 1, 2016
Winner: Hillary Clinton
Republican caucuses
  Date: March 1, 2016
Winner: Ted Cruz
Down ballot races in Texas
  U.S. House
State executive offices
Texas State Senate
Texas House of Representatives
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Texas held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. The Democratic and Republican parties held primary elections for president on March 1, 2016. Texas was one of twelve states holding presidential primary elections on March 1. For both parties, Texas had more delegates up for grabs than any other state on that date.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Donald Trump won Texas in the general election.
  • In 2016, Texas had 38 electoral votes, which was 7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 14 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Between 1900 and 2016, Texas cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 66.67 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Texas supported Democratic candidates only slightly more often than Republicans, 53.33 to 46.67 percent. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.
  • Presidential primary elections in Texas took place on March 1, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary with 65.2 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz won the Republican primary with 43.8 percent.

    • General election candidates

    See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

    The candidate list below is based on an official list on the Texas secretary of state website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the official list—not necessarily the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November. Write-in candidates were not included in the list below.

    Presidential candidates on the ballot in Texas

    CheckedBoxOffset.jpg Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)
    ☐ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic)
    ☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)
    ☐ Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green)

    Results

    U.S. presidential election, Texas, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 43.2% 3,877,868 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump/Mike Pence 52.2% 4,685,047 38
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 3.2% 283,492 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 0.8% 71,558 0
         - Write-in votes 0.6% 51,261 0
    Total Votes 8,969,226 38
    Election results via: Texas Secretary of State

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, in 34 states.[1] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government for the next four years.

    Historical election trends

    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of Texas's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in Texas, 1900-2016

    Between 1900 and 2016:

    • Texas participated in 30 presidential elections.
    • Texas voted for the winning presidential candidate 66.67 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 72.31 percent.[2]
    • Texas voted Democratic 53.3 percent of the time and Republican 46.67 percent of the time.

    Presidential election voting record in Texas, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    Election results

    2012

    U.S. presidential election, Texas, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMitt Romney/Paul Ryan 57.2% 4,569,843 38
         Democratic Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent 41.4% 3,308,124 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Jim Gray 1.1% 88,580 0
         Green Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala 0.3% 24,657 0
    Total Votes 7,991,204 38
    Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

    Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: various write-ins, Virgil Goode, Ross Anderson, Thomas Hoefling, Stewart Alexander and Andre Barnett.[4]

    2008

    U.S. presidential election, Texas, 2008
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain/Sarah Palin 55.5% 4,479,328 34
         Democratic Barack Obama/Joe Biden 43.7% 3,528,633 0
         Libertarian Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root 0.7% 56,116 0
         N/A Write-ins 0.1% 10,188 0
    Total Votes 8,074,265 34
    Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

    Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Ralph Nader, Chuck Baldwin, Cynthia McKinney, Alan Keyes, Brian Moore, Jonathan Allen and Ron Paul.[5]

    Electoral votes

    See also: Electoral College

    The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

    Texas electors

    In 2016, Texas had 38 electoral votes. Texas's share of electoral votes represented 7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 14 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president. Democratic and Republicans electors in Texas were selected at state party conventions.

    "Faithless electors"

    The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

    Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[6][7]

    Texas was one of 20 states in 2016 without a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.

    Down ballot races

    See also: Texas elections, 2016

    Below is a list of down ballot races in Texas covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

    Primary election

    Quick facts

    Democrats:
    • 2016 Democratic winner: Hillary Clinton
    • Poll leader: Hillary Clinton
    • 2008 Democratic winner: Hillary Clinton
    • Type: Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 222 pledged
    • Total delegates at stake: 251
    		 Republicans
    • 2016 Republican winner: Ted Cruz
    • Poll leader: Ted Cruz
    • 2012 Republican winner: Mitt Romney
    • Type: Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional*
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 155 pledged
    • Total delegates at stake: 155

    *The Texas GOP includes a provision in its nominating rules allowing any candidate who wins 50 percent of the vote cast within the state or each of the congressional districts to receive all of the state’s at-large and congressional district delegates. For more on this provision, see here.

    Democrats

    Hillary Clinton won the Texas Democratic primary election. Polls from late February 2016 showed her with a thirty point lead over her opponent Bernie Sanders. Exit poll data compiled by CNN shows that Clinton outperformed Sanders with both men and women in Texas, winning 56 percent and 65 percent respectively. Clinton also won over non-white voters. Latino voters, who made up 28 percent of the Democratic electorate, supported Clinton by 67 percent. She won 80 percent of black voters.[8]

    1.3 million voters participated in Texas' 2016 Democratic primary election. This was roughly 1.5 million less than the amount of voters that participated in the state's 2008 Democratic primary (which Clinton also won). In that year, more than 2.8 million voters turned out to vote.

    Republicans

    Ted Cruz won the Texas Republican primary. Cruz was elected as a U.S. Senator from Texas in 2012. His candidacy for president was endorsed by Texas governor Greg Abbott (R) and former Texas governor Rick Perry (R). The latter was a Republican presidential candidate in 2012 and 2016. Donald Trump came in second place in Texas. Cruz won almost every major demographic in Texas, including men, women, young and old voters, white and non-white voters and voters of all education backgrounds. Voters who identified themselves as "very conservative" made up 38 percent of the Republican electorate on March 1, 2016. Of those voters, 54 percent supported Cruz. Trump won 35 percent of voters who viewed themselves as "somewhat conservative" and 40 percent of voters who identified as moderates.[8] Of Texas' 254 counties, Cruz won all of them but six.[9]

    Super Tuesday, 2016

    Voter turnout in the 2016 GOP primary in Texas set a new state record. With 80 percent of precincts reporting in, an estimated 2,460,714 voters turned out to vote. In 2012, 1,449,477 Republican voters participated in the primaries.

    2016 primary results

    Democrats

    Texas Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton 65.2% 936,004 147
    Bernie Sanders 33.2% 476,547 75
    Roque De La Fuente 0.6% 8,429 0
    Calvin Hawes 0.1% 2,017 0
    Keith Judd 0.2% 2,569 0
    Star Locke 0.1% 1,711 0
    Martin O'Malley 0.4% 5,364 0
    Willie Wilson 0.2% 3,254 0
    Totals 1,435,895 222
    Source: Texas Secretary of State and CNN

    Republicans

    Texas Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Jeb Bush 1.2% 35,420 0
    Ben Carson 4.2% 117,969 0
    Chris Christie 0.1% 3,448 0
    Green check mark transparent.pngTed Cruz 43.8% 1,241,118 104
    Carly Fiorina 0.1% 3,247 0
    Lindsey Graham 0.1% 1,706 0
    Elizabeth Gray 0.2% 5,449 0
    Mike Huckabee 0.2% 6,226 0
    John Kasich 4.2% 120,473 0
    Rand Paul 0.3% 8,000 0
    Marco Rubio 17.7% 503,055 3
    Rick Santorum 0.1% 2,006 0
    Donald Trump 26.8% 758,762 48
    Other 1% 29,609 0
    Totals 2,836,488 155
    Source: Texas Secretary of State and CNN

    Candidate list

    Democrats[10]

    Hillary Clinton
    Roque De La Fuente
    Calvis L. Hawes


    Keith Judd
    Star Locke
    Martin O'Malley


    Bernie Sanders
    Willie Wilson

    Republicans[10]

    Jeb Bush
    Ben Carson
    Chris Christie
    Ted Cruz
    Carly Fiorina


    Elizabeth Gray
    Lindsey Graham
    Mike Huckabee
    John Kasich


    Rand Paul
    Marco Rubio
    Rick Santorum
    Donald Trump

    Green Party[11]

    Jill Stein
    Darryl Cherney


    Kent Mesplay
    Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifz Curry


    Bill Kreml

    Polls

    Democratic polls

    Democratic Party Democratic Party presidential primary polling (Texas)
    Poll Hillary Clinton Bernie SandersUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Emerson College
    February 26-28, 2016    		68%26%6%+/-5.9275
    American Research Group
    February 26-28, 2016    		58%38%4%+/-5400
    CBS News/YouGov
    February 22-26, 2016    		61%37%2%+/-6.9750
    Monmouth University
    February 22-24, 2016    		64%30%6%+/-5.6304
    NBC News/WSJ/Marist
    February 18-23, 2016    		59%38%3%+/-5381
    Emerson College
    February 21-23, 2016    		56%40%4%+/-5.4328
    SurveyUSA
    February 21-22, 2016    		61%32%7%+/-4.1569
    Austin American-Statesman
    February 19-22, 2016    		66%26%7%+/-5411
    KTVT-CBS 11/Dixie Strategies
    February 22, 2016    		60.71%29.26%10.03%+/-3.77675
    Texas Tribune
    February 12-19, 2016    		54%44%2%+/-5.44324
    Public Policy Polling
    February 14-16, 2016    		57%34%9%+/-4.3514
    University of Texas - Austin/Texas Tribune
    October 30, 2015-November 8, 2015    		61%30%8%+/-5.76459
    KTVT-CBS 11 Dixie Strategies
    October 23-24, 2015    		58.73%9.72%31.54%+/-2.161,008
    Texas Lyceum
    September 8-21, 2015    		36%24%40%+/-7.15185
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Republican polls

    Republican Party Republican Party presidential primary polling (Texas)
    Poll Ted Cruz Donald TrumpMarco RubioJohn KasichBen CarsonUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Emerson College
    February 26-28, 2016    		35%32%16%9%4%4%+/-4.6449
    Opinion Savvy
    February 28, 2016    		36.2%25.3%19.2%8.5%7.9%2.8%+/-3.7712
    American Research Group
    February 26-28, 2016    		33%32%17%7%6%5%+/-5400
    CBS News/YouGov
    February 22-26, 2016    		42%31%19%4%4%0%+/-5.6796
    Monmouth University
    February 22-24, 2016    		38%23%21%5%6%7%+/-4.6456
    NBC News/WSJ/Marist
    February 18-23, 2016    		39%26%16%6%8%5%+/-4.2537
    Emerson College
    February 21-23, 2016    		29%28%25%9%4%5%+/-4.6446
    SurveyUSA
    February 21-22, 2016    		32%32%17%6%5%8%+/-3.9645
    Austin American-Statesman
    February 19-22, 2016    		38%26%13%7%6%9%+/-4620
    KTVT-CBS 11/Dixie Strategies
    February 22, 2016    		33.24%24.83%14.76%8%5.79%13.38%+/-3.64725
    Houston Public Media
    February 12-22, 2016    		35%20%8%4%7%26%+/-4.8415
    Texas Tribune
    February 12-19, 2016    		37%29%15%5%4%10%+/-4.5407
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Delegates

    Delegate selection

    See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules

    Democratic Party

    Democratic Party Logo.png

    Texas had 251 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Of this total, 222 were pledged delegates. National party rules stipulated how Democratic delegates in all states were allocated. Pledged delegates were allocated to a candidate in proportion to the votes he or she received in a state's primary or caucus. A candidate was eligible to receive a share of the state's pledged delegates if he or she won at least 15 percent of the votes cast in the primary or caucus. There were three types of pledged Democratic delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates, and party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). Congressional district delegates were allocated proportionally based on the primary or caucus results in a given district. At-large and PLEO delegates were allocated proportionally based on statewide primary results.[12][13]

    Twenty-nine party leaders and elected officials served as unpledged delegates. These delegates were not required to adhere to the results of a state's primary or caucus.[12][14]

    Texas superdelegates

    See also: Superdelegates from Texas, 2016 and Superdelegates and the 2016 Democratic National Convention

    Republican Party

    Logo-GOP.png

    Texas had 155 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, 108 were district-level delegates (three for each of the state's 36 congressional districts). District-level delegates were allocated on a proportional basis; a candidate had to win at least 20 percent of the primary vote in a district in order to be eligible to receive any of that district's delegates. If only one candidate met the 20 percent threshold in a district, he or she won all of the district's delegates. If two candidates met this threshold, the first place finisher received two of the district's delegates; the second place finisher received the remaining delegate. If no candidate won 20 percent of the vote, the top three finishers in a district each received one of the district's delegates. If a candidate won more than 50 percent of the vote in a district, he or she received all of the district's delegates.[15][16]

    Of the remaining 47 delegates, 44 served at large. At-large delegates were allocated on a proportional basis; a candidate had to win at least 20 percent of the statewide primary vote in order to be eligible to receive any of the state's at-large delegates. If only one candidate broke the 20 percent threshold, the second place finisher still received a portion of the state's at-large delegates. If a candidate won more than 50 percent of the statewide vote, he or she received all of the state's at-large delegates. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention.[15][16]

    Republican delegates

    See also: Republican delegates from Texas, 2016 and RNC delegate guidelines from Texas, 2016

    Presidential voting history

    Texas presidential election results (1900-2024)

    • 16 Democratic wins
    • 15 Republican wins
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
    Winning Party D D D D D D D R D D D D D R R D D D R D R R R R R R R R R R R R

    State profile

    Demographic data for Texas
     TexasU.S.
    Total population:27,429,639316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):261,2323,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:74.9%73.6%
    Black/African American:11.9%12.6%
    Asian:4.2%5.1%
    Native American:0.5%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
    Two or more:2.5%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:38.4%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:81.9%86.7%
    College graduation rate:27.6%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$53,207$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:19.9%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Texas.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in Texas

    Texas voted Republican in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

    Pivot Counties (2016)

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, one is located in Texas, accounting for 0.5 percent of the total pivot counties.[17]

    Pivot Counties (2020)

    In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Texas had one Retained Pivot County, 0.55 percent of all Retained Pivot Counties.

    More Texas coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    2. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2016. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
    3. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
    4. ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2012 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
    5. ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2008 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
    6. ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
    7. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
    8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 CNN, "Texas Exit Polls," March 1, 2016
    9. ↑ The New York Times, "Texas Primary Results," March 2, 2016
    10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 Texas Secretary of State, "2016 March Primary Election Candidate Filings by County," December 2, 2015
    11. ↑ Green Party of Texas, "2016 Candidate Applicants," accessed February 2, 2016
    12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 Democratic National Committee, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," updated February 19, 2016
    13. ↑ The Green Papers, "2016 Democratic Convention," accessed May 7, 2021
    14. ↑ Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "Unpledged Delegates -- By State," May 27, 2016
    15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 Republican National Committee, "2016 Presidential Nominating Process," accessed October 6, 2015
    16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 CNN.com, "Republican National Convention roll call vote," accessed July 20, 2016
    17. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
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