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Presidential election in Tennessee, 2016

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General election in Tennessee
  Date: November 8, 2016
2016 winner: Donald Trump
Electoral votes: 11
2012 winner: Mitt Romney (R)
Democratic Primary
  Date: March 1, 2016
Winner: Hillary Clinton
Republican Primary
  Date: March 1, 2016
Winner: Donald Trump
Down ballot races in Tennessee
  U.S. House
Tennessee State Senate
Tennessee House of Representatives
Tennessee judicial elections
Tennessee local judicial elections
Click here for more elections in Tennessee
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Tennessee held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. The Democratic and Republican parties held primary elections for president on March 1, 2016.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Donald Trump won Tennessee in the general election.
  • In 2016, Tennessee had 11 electoral votes, which was 2 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Between 1900 and 2016, Tennessee cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.67 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Tennessee supported Democratic candidates for president and Republican candidates equally. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.
  • Democratic and Republican primaries took place in Tennessee on March 1, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary with 66.1 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 38.9 percent of the vote.

    • General election candidates

    See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

    The candidate list below is based on an official list on the Tennessee elections website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the official list—not necessarily the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November. Write-in candidates were not included in the list below.

    Presidential candidates on the ballot in Tennessee

    CheckedBoxOffset.jpg Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)
    ☐ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic)
    ☐ Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg (Independent)
    ☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian - listed as Independent)
    ☐ Alyson Kennedy/Osborne Hart (Independent)
    ☐ Mike Smith/Daniel White (Independent)
    ☐ Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green - listed as Independent)

    Results

    U.S. presidential election, Tennessee, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 34.7% 870,695 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump/Mike Pence 60.7% 1,522,925 11
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 2.8% 70,397 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 0.6% 15,993 0
         Independent Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg 0.2% 4,075 0
         Independent Alyson Kennedy/Osborne Hart 0.1% 2,877 0
         Independent Mike Smith/Daniel White 0.3% 7,276 0
         - Write-in votes 0.5% 13,789 0
    Total Votes 2,508,027 11
    Election results via: Tennessee Secretary of State

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, in 34 states.[1] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government for the next four years.

    Historical election trends

    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of Tennessee's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in Tennessee, 1900-2016

    Between 1900 and 2016:

    • Tennessee participated in 30 presidential elections.
    • Tennessee voted for the winning presidential candidate 76.67 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 72.31 percent.[2]
    • Tennessee voted Democratic 50 percent of the time and Republican 50 percent of the time.

    Presidential election voting record in Tennessee, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    Election results

    2012

    U.S. presidential election, Tennessee, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMitt Romney/Paul Ryan 59.5% 1,462,330 11
         Democratic Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent 39.1% 960,709 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Jim Gray 0.8% 18,623 0
         Green Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala 0.3% 6,515 0
         Constitution Virgil Goode/James Clymer 0.2% 6,022 0
         N/A Ross Anderson 0.1% 2,639 0
    Total Votes 2,456,838 11
    Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

    Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: various write-ins and Merlin Miller.[4]

    2008

    U.S. presidential election, Tennessee, 2008
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain/Sarah Palin 56.9% 1,479,178 11
         Democratic Barack Obama/Joe Biden 41.9% 1,087,437 0
         Independent Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez 0.4% 11,560 0
         Independent Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root 0.3% 8,547 0
         Independent Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle 0.3% 8,191 0
         Independent Cynthia McKinney 0.1% 2,499 0
    Total Votes 2,597,412 11
    Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

    Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: various write-ins, Brian Moore and Charles Jay.[5]

    Electoral votes

    See also: Electoral College

    The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

    Tennessee electors

    In 2016, Tennessee had 11 electoral votes. Tennessee's share of electoral votes represented 2 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 4 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president.

    "Faithless electors"

    The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

    Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[6][7]

    Tennessee was one of 31 states in 2016—including the District of Columbia—with a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.

    Down ballot races

    See also: Tennessee elections, 2016

    Below is a list of down ballot races in Tennessee covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

    Primary election

    Quick facts

    Democrats: Republicans
    • 2016 Republican winner: Donald Trump
    • 2012 Republican winner: Rick Santorum
    • Type: Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 58
    • Total delegates at stake: 58

    Democrats

    Hillary Clinton won the Tennessee Democratic primary, defeating Bernie Sanders by more than 30 percentage points. She won all but three counties in the state: Washington, Carter and Unicoi. In Davidson County, home of the city of Nashville, she beat Sanders 65 to 33. Clinton also won the Tennessee Democratic primary in 2008.[8] Exit polling, a representative sampling of voters as they left their precinct polling stations, shows that Clinton outperformed Sanders in almost every major demographic, including non-white voters whom Clinton won by 85 percent. Sanders narrowly beat Clinton with younger voters in Tennessee. He won voters 18 to 44 years old by 51 percent.[9]

    Turnout in Tennessee's 2016 Democratic primary was lower than in 2008. In 2016, less than 375,000 voters turned out. In the state's 2008 Democratic primaries, almost 625,000 showed up to vote.

    Republicans

    Donald Trump won the Tennessee Republican primary with nearly 40 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz came in second and Marco Rubio came in third. Trump lost only one county in the state. Rubio beat him 31 to 27 percent in Williamson County. In Davidson County, Trump defeated Rubio by less than two percentage points, 31 to 29.3.[8] According to CNN exit poll data, Trump won nearly every major demographic in the state, including men, women, all age groups and voters of all income levels and education backgrounds. One group that he lost were voters who identified as "very conservative." Cruz outperformed Trump with that group 39 to 34 percent.[9]

    Voter turnout in Tennessee's 2016 GOP primary was almost 300,000 more than in 2012. In 2016, an estimated 853,571 voters showed up at the polls. In 2012, 554,573 voters turned out.

    2016 primary results

    Democrats

    Tennessee Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton 66.1% 245,374 44
    Bernie Sanders 32.4% 120,360 23
    Martin O'Malley 0.6% 2,121 0
    Other 0.9% 3,466 0
    Totals 371,321 67
    Source: Tennessee Secretary of State and CNN

    Republicans

    Tennessee Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump 38.9% 332,823 33
    Ted Cruz 24.7% 211,234 16
    Marco Rubio 21.2% 181,059 9
    Ben Carson 7.6% 64,855 0
    John Kasich 5.3% 45,258 0
    Jeb Bush 1.1% 9,548 0
    Mike Huckabee 0.3% 2,418 0
    Rand Paul 0.3% 2,349 0
    Other 0.2% 1,849 0
    Chris Christie 0.1% 1,254 0
    Carly Fiorina 0.1% 717 0
    Rick Santorum 0.1% 713 0
    Jim Gilmore 0% 269 0
    Lindsey Graham 0% 257 0
    George Pataki 0% 189 0
    Totals 854,792 58
    Source: Tennessee Secretary of State and CNN

    Candidate list

    Democrats[10]

    Hillary Clinton


    Martin O'Malley


    Bernie Sanders

    Republicans[10]

    Jeb Bush
    Ben Carson
    Chris Christie
    Ted Cruz
    Carly Fiorina


    Jim Gilmore
    Lindsey Graham
    Mike Huckabee
    John Kasich
    George Pataki


    Rand Paul
    Marco Rubio
    Rick Santorum
    Donald Trump

    Polls

    Democratic primary

    Democratic Party Democratic Party presidential primary polling (Tennessee)
    Poll Hillary Clinton Bernie SandersUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    NBC News/WSJ/Marist
    February 18-23, 2016    		60%34%6%+/-4.9405
    Public Policy Polling
    February 14-16, 2016    		58%32%10%+/-4.4500
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Republican primary

    Republican Party Republican Party presidential primary polling (Tennessee)
    Poll Donald Trump Ted CruzMarco RubioBen CarsonJohn KasichUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    NBC News/WSJ/Marist
    February 18-23, 2016    		40%22%19%9%6%5%+/-3.8665
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Delegates

    Delegate selection

    See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules

    Democratic Party

    Democratic Party Logo.png

    Tennessee had 75 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Of this total, 67 were pledged delegates. National party rules stipulated how Democratic delegates in all states were allocated. Pledged delegates were allocated to a candidate in proportion to the votes he or she received in a state's primary or caucus. A candidate was eligible to receive a share of the state's pledged delegates if he or she won at least 15 percent of the votes cast in the primary or caucus. There were three types of pledged Democratic delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates, and party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). Congressional district delegates were allocated proportionally based on the primary or caucus results in a given district. At-large and PLEO delegates were allocated proportionally based on statewide primary results.[11][12]

    Eight party leaders and elected officials served as unpledged delegates. These delegates were not required to adhere to the results of a state's primary or caucus.[11][13]

    Tennessee superdelegates

    See also: Superdelegates from Tennessee, 2016 and Superdelegates and the 2016 Democratic National Convention

    Republican Party

    Logo-GOP.png

    Tennessee had 58 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, 27 were district-level delegates (three for each of the state's nine congressional districts). District-level delegates were allocated on a proportional basis; a candidate had to win at least 20 percent of the district vote in order to be eligible to receive any of a district's delegates. If a candidate won more than 66 percent of the vote in a district, he or she received all of the district's delegates. If the winning candidate in a district won between 20 and 66 percent of the district vote, he or she received two of the district's delegates; the second place finisher received the remaining delegate (if the second place finisher did not meet the 20 percent threshold, all three delegates were allocated to the first place finisher). If no candidate met the 20 percent threshold in a district, the top three finishers each received one of the district's delegates.[14][15]

    Of the remaining 31 delegates, 28 served at large. At-large delegates were allocated on a proportional basis; a candidate had to win at least 20 percent of the statewide primary vote in order to be eligible to receive any at-large delegates. If a candidate won more than 66 percent of the statewide primary vote, he or she received all of the state's at-large delegates. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention.[14][15]

    Republican delegates

    See also: Republican delegates from Tennessee, 2016 and RNC delegate guidelines from Tennessee, 2016

    Presidential voting history

    Tennessee presidential election results (1900-2024)

    • 15 Democratic wins
    • 17 Republican wins
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
    Winning Party D D D D D R D R D D D D D R R R D R R D R R R D D R R R R R R R

    State profile

    Demographic data for Tennessee
     TennesseeU.S.
    Total population:6,595,056316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):41,2353,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:77.8%73.6%
    Black/African American:16.8%12.6%
    Asian:1.6%5.1%
    Native American:0.3%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
    Two or more:2%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:4.9%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:85.5%86.7%
    College graduation rate:24.9%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$45,219$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:21.4%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Tennessee.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in Tennessee

    Tennessee voted Republican in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

    Pivot Counties (2016)

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, one is located in Tennessee, accounting for 0.5 percent of the total pivot counties.[16]

    Pivot Counties (2020)

    In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Tennessee had one Retained Pivot County, 0.55 percent of all Retained Pivot Counties.

    More Tennessee coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    2. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2016. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
    3. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
    4. ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2012 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
    5. ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2008 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
    6. ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
    7. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
    8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 The New York Times, "Tennessee Primary Results," March 1, 2016
    9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 CNN, "Tennessee Exit Polls," March 1, 2016
    10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 WSMV.com, "Presidential primary ballot set in Tennessee," December 2, 2015
    11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 Democratic National Committee, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," updated February 19, 2016
    12. ↑ The Green Papers, "2016 Democratic Convention," accessed May 7, 2021
    13. ↑ Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "Unpledged Delegates -- By State," May 27, 2016
    14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 Republican National Committee, "2016 Presidential Nominating Process," accessed October 6, 2015
    15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 CNN.com, "Republican National Convention roll call vote," accessed July 20, 2016
    16. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
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    Democratic: April 14, 2016 (CNN) • March 9, 2016 (Univision) • March 6, 2016 (CNN) • February 11, 2016 (PBS) • February 4, 2016 (MSNBC) • January 17, 2016 (NBC) • December 19, 2015 (ABC) • November 14, 2015 (CBS) • October 13, 2015 (CNN)
    Republican: March 10, 2016 (CNN) • March 3, 2016 (FNC) • February 25, 2016 (CNN) • February 13, 2016 (CBS) • February 6, 2016 (ABC) • January 28, 2016 (FNC) • January 14, 2016 (FBN) • December 15, 2015 (CNN) • November 10, 2015 (FBN) • October 28, 2015 (CNBC) • September 16, 2015 (CNN)

    Insiders Poll: First Democratic debate (October 13, 2015) • Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton remains choice of Democratic Insiders • Presidential Nominating Index: Bush remains choice of Republican Insiders • Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the Fox News Republican Debate


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