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New York's 4th Congressional District election, 2024
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New York's 4th Congressional District |
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General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: April 4, 2024 |
Primary: June 25, 2024 General: November 5, 2024 |
How to vote |
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. Voting in New York |
Ballotpedia analysis |
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See also |
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Laura Gillen (D) defeated incumbent Anthony D'Esposito (R) in the general election for New York's 4th Congressional District on November 5, 2024. D'Esposito was one of 15 incumbents who lost their re-election campaigns to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024. Additionally, this was one of 19 seats that changed partisan control due to the 2024 U.S. House of Representatives elections.
This race was a rematch of 2022, when D'Esposito defeated Gillen 51.8%-48.2%. D'Esposito was one of 14 Republicans to win in a district that President Joe Biden (D) won in 2020. University of Virginia Center for Politics analyst Kyle Kondik said, "You could argue that just because of the makeup of the district that that’s the best Democratic House target in the whole country."[1]
D'Esposito was the first Republican to represent the 4th District since 1997.[2] Before entering Congress, D'Esposito was a member of the Hempstead Town Council from 2016 to 2023. He earned his bachelor's degree in English from Hofstra University in 2004. Previously, D'Esposito was a detective for the New York Police Department.[3]
Gillen graduated from Georgetown University and later earned a degree from New York University's School of Law. She was the Hempstead Town Supervisor from 2018 to 2020.[4] She worked as an attorney and as an adjunct law professor at Hofstra University.[5]
D'Esposito said he was running for re-election "...in order to continue fighting for commonsense Long Island values in Congress and to ensure our district remains represented by someone focused on advancing the interests of Nassau County neighbors, and NOT the regressive policies of Washington progressives."[6] He said that voters supported him because they saw him as more moderate compared to Democrats. He said, "Many people feel the Democrats in New York have gone too far to the left. They’ve seen the implementation of cashless bail. They’ve seen the state legislature really try to change suburban communities into what we see in the five boroughs... Voters see someone like me as a person with common sense."[7]
In an interview, Gillen said, "Long island's congressional delegation had a long tradition of bipartisan representation where voices on both sides collectively advocated for residents from Atlantic beach to Montauk. We need to reclaim that tradition to ensure our concerns are addressed no matter the political landscape."[8] Gillen criticized D'Esposito as more focused on partisan votes, rather than working for the district. In a post on X, Gillen said, "Anthony D'Esposito puts partisan pandering and grandstanding over results. In Congress, I'll spend my time working to solve problems to deliver for NY-04 and the American people."[9]
Before the election, Hofstra University professor Lawrence Levy said the withdrawal of President Joe Biden (D) and the candidacy of Vice President Kamala Harris (D) could have helped Gillen's chances. Levy said, "Harris ascending to the top of the ticket helps the Democrats across the board with younger voters who were looking for an alternative... with Asian voters who have been leaning towards the Republicans... with Black voters in particular. And I think that's the one that gives Democrats on Long Island, particularly in the fourth district now held by Anthony D’Esposito (R), some hope."[10] To read more about Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race, click here
Republicans pointed to recent wins the party had on Long Island as a sign they could win again in a presidential year. Suffolk GOP chair Jesse Garcia said, "People are responding to the campaign operations, to the candidates, to this committee’s hard work on giving Republicans a chance... They see what’s going on in Albany, in D.C. under one party rule and they are rejecting that, and we’re giving them the tools and candidates to reject those policies."[11] D'Esposito said, "Not only are we winning, but we’re winning in places that have historically been Democrat. That momentum is continuing. The pendulum is continuing to swing."[12]
Based on third-quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission before the election, D’Esposito raised $4.4 million and spent $3.3 million, and Gillen raised $6.1 million and spent $4.4 million. To review all the campaign finance figures in full detail, click here.
New York conducted redistricting between the 2022 and 2024 elections. As a result, district lines in this state changed. To review how redistricting took place in New York and to see maps of the new districts, click here. For a list of all states that drew new district lines between 2022 and 2024, click here.
New York's 4th Congressional District was one of 34 congressional districts with a Republican incumbent or an open seat that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) targeted in 2024. To read about DCCC targeting initiatives, click here. For a complete list of DCCC targeted districts, click here.
As of October 30, 2024, four major election forecasters differed in their ratings for the general election, with three rating it a toss-up and one rating it Lean Democratic.
The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. All 435 House districts were up for election.
At the time of the election, Republicans held a 220-212 majority with three vacancies.[13] As a result of the election, Republicans retained control of the U.S. House, winning 220 seats to Democrats' 215.[14] To read more about the 2024 U.S. House elections, click here.
In the 2022 election in this district, the Republican candidate won 51.8%-48.2%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have defeated Donald Trump (R) 56.8%-42.2%.[15]
For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:
- New York's 4th Congressional District election, 2024 (June 25 Democratic primary)
- New York's 4th Congressional District election, 2024 (June 25 Republican primary)
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House New York District 4
Laura Gillen defeated incumbent Anthony D'Esposito in the general election for U.S. House New York District 4 on November 5, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Laura Gillen (D / Common Sense Party) | 51.1 | 191,760 | |
Anthony D'Esposito (R / Conservative Party) | 48.8 | 183,157 | ||
Other/Write-in votes | 0.2 | 601 |
Total votes: 375,518 | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Democratic primary election
The Democratic primary election was canceled. Laura Gillen advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 4.
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Lawrence Henry (D)
- Patricia Maher (D)
- Gian Jones (D)
- Frank Lozada (D)
- Sarah Hughes (D)
- Kevin Thomas (D)
- David Denenberg (D)
Republican primary election
The Republican primary election was canceled. Incumbent Anthony D'Esposito advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 4.
Conservative Party primary election
The Conservative Party primary election was canceled. Incumbent Anthony D'Esposito advanced from the Conservative Party primary for U.S. House New York District 4.
Voting information
- See also: Voting in New York
Candidate comparison
Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.
Party: Republican Party, Conservative Party
Incumbent: Yes
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "Congressman Anthony D'Esposito is a retired NYPD Detective and Ex-Chief of the Island Park Fire Department. Prior to his tenure in Congress, D'Esposito also served as a Hempstead Town Councilman where he was responsible for cutting taxes and streamlining the delivery of municipal services for the 800,000 residents of America's largest township. On Capitol Hill, Congressman D'Esposito has focused on delivering results in a bipartisan fashion via his role in the "Problem Solvers Caucus" and utilizing his first responder experience to help guide policymaking decisions on many important issues. As a member of the House Homeland Security Committee, D'Esposito was instrumental in helping pass House Republicans' signature H.R. 2 border security legislation. What's more, D'Esposito has worked vigorously to increase funding for 9/11 survivor healthcare programs, introduced and passed legislation combating antisemitism, fought against unpopular developers seeking to overdevelop Long Island's coasts, introduced bipartisan legislation in opposition to congestion pricing, brought legislation to the House floor designed to deliver SALT cap relief for New Yorkers, and secured over $20 million in federal funding to provide enhanced resources for local first responder agencies, libraries, educational centers, and more across the 4th Congressional District."
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House New York District 4 in 2024.
Party: Democratic Party, Common Sense Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: Hempstead Town Supervisor (2018-2020)
Biography: Gillen graduated from Georgetown University and later earned a degree from New York University's School of Law. She worked as an attorney and as an adjunct law professor at Hofstra University.
Show sources
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House New York District 4 in 2024.
Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses
Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.
Survey responses from candidates in this race
Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.
Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.
Collapse all
|Anthony D'Esposito (Republican, Conservative)
BORDER SECURITY. Congressman Anthony D'Esposito helped pass a comprehensive border security bill in the House of Representatives, and he will continue working to secure the border and end the migrant crisis in New York.
AFFORDABILITY. Congressman Anthony D'Esposito will continue working to make New York more affordable by rejecting tax hikes and working to stop the implementation of hidden taxes like the progressives' proposed "congestion pricing" plan to toll commuters who drive into lower Manhattan.
Anthony D'Esposito (Republican, Conservative)
Anthony D'Esposito (Republican, Conservative)
Anthony D'Esposito (Republican, Conservative)
Anthony D'Esposito (Republican, Conservative)
Anthony D'Esposito (Republican, Conservative)
Anthony D'Esposito (Republican, Conservative)
Anthony D'Esposito (Republican, Conservative)
Campaign ads
This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.
Anthony D'Esposito
July 30, 2024 |
July 30, 2024 |
View more ads here:
Laura Gillen
Ballotpedia did not come across any campaign ads for Laura Gillen while conducting research on this election. If you are aware of any ads that should be included, please email us.
Election competitiveness
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[16] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[17] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.
The links below show polls for this race aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, where available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation.
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[18]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[19][20][21]
Race ratings: New York's 4th Congressional District election, 2024 | |||||||||
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Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
November 5, 2024 | October 29, 2024 | October 22, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Lean Democratic | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill | Lean Democratic | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Tilt Democratic | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. |
Endorsements
Click the links below to see official endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites for any candidates that make that information available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.
Election Spending
Campaign finance
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Anthony D'Esposito | Republican Party, Conservative Party | $4,644,841 | $4,462,229 | $205,079 | As of December 31, 2024 |
Laura Gillen | Common Sense Party, Democratic Party | $6,826,397 | $6,803,193 | $23,203 | As of December 31, 2024 |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Satellite spending
- See also: Satellite spending
Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[22][23][24]
If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.
By candidate | By election |
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District analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.
- District map - A map of the district before and after redistricting ahead of the 2024 election.
- Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
- State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
Below is the district map used in the 2022 election next to the map in place for the 2024 election. Click on a map below to enlarge it.
2022
2024
This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in New York.
New York U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | ||||
2024 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 59 | 52 | 5 | 1 | 11.5% | 4 | 15.4% | ||||
2022 | 26 | 26 | 7 | 107 | 52 | 16 | 8 | 46.2% | 13 | 68.4% | ||||
2020 | 27 | 27 | 4 | 108 | 54 | 16 | 7 | 42.6% | 11 | 47.8% | ||||
2018 | 27 | 27 | 1 | 85 | 54 | 13 | 1 | 25.9% | 6 | 23.1% | ||||
2016 | 27 | 27 | 4 | 77 | 54 | 10 | 3 | 24.1% | 5 | 21.7% | ||||
2014 | 27 | 27 | 2 | 55 | 54 | 5 | 5 | 18.5% | 5 | 20.0% |
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in New York in 2024. Information below was calculated on June 16, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
Fifty-nine candidates ran for New York’s 26 U.S. House districts, including 32 Democrats and 27 Republicans. That’s an average of 2.27 candidates per district. There were 4.12 candidates per district in 2022, 4.00 candidates per district in 2020, and 3.15 candidates per district in 2018.
The 59 candidates who ran in New York in 2024 was the fewest number of candidates since 2014, when 55 candidates ran.
2020
General election
General election for U.S. House New York District 4
Incumbent Kathleen Rice defeated Douglas Tuman and Joseph R. Naham in the general election for U.S. House New York District 4 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Kathleen Rice (D) | 56.1 | 199,762 | |
Douglas Tuman (R / Conservative Party) | 43.0 | 153,007 | ||
Joseph R. Naham (G) | 0.8 | 3,024 | ||
Other/Write-in votes | 0.0 | 119 |
Total votes: 355,912 | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Edward Dennehy (Independent)
Democratic primary election
The Democratic primary election was canceled. Incumbent Kathleen Rice advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 4.
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- David Kimmel (D)
- Azeem Hussein (D)
- David LeBlanc (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 4
Douglas Tuman defeated Cindy Grosz in the Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 4 on June 23, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Douglas Tuman | 70.6 | 10,898 | |
Cindy Grosz | 27.8 | 4,292 | ||
Other/Write-in votes | 1.5 | 236 |
Total votes: 15,426 | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Steve Raiser (R)
Conservative Party primary election
The Conservative Party primary election was canceled. Douglas Tuman advanced from the Conservative Party primary for U.S. House New York District 4.
Green primary election
The Green primary election was canceled. Joseph R. Naham advanced from the Green primary for U.S. House New York District 4.
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House New York District 4
Incumbent Kathleen Rice defeated Ameer Benno in the general election for U.S. House New York District 4 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Kathleen Rice (D) | 61.3 | 159,535 | |
Ameer Benno (R) | 38.7 | 100,571 |
Total votes: 260,106 (100.00% precincts reporting) | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 4
Incumbent Kathleen Rice advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 4 on June 26, 2018.
Candidate | ||
✔ | Kathleen Rice |
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 4
Ameer Benno advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 4 on June 26, 2018.
Candidate | ||
✔ | Ameer Benno |
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Republican-held U.S. House district that Biden won
This is one of 19 U.S. House districts Republicans were defending that President Joe Biden (D) won in 2020. The map below highlights those districts. Hover over or click a district to see information such as the incumbent and the presidential vote counts.
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Newsday,New York House races to be battlegrounds in 2024 elections," accessed July 30, 2024
- ↑ Patch, "D'Esposito Officially Gets Party Backing For Reelection B," accessed July 29, 2024
- ↑ Congressman Anthony D'Esposito, "About," accessed July 30, 2024
- ↑ Laura Gillen for Congress, "Meet Laura," accessed July 30, 2024
- ↑ Newsday, "Voters Guide: Laura A. Gillen," accessed July 31, 2024
- ↑ Patch, "D'Esposito Officially Gets Party Backing For Reelection Bid," accessed July 31, 2024
- ↑ Roll Call, "How Anthony D’Esposito went from cop to GOP congressman in a Biden district," accessed July 29, 2024
- ↑ LI Herald, "Laura Gillen announces run for Congress," accessed August 6, 2024
- ↑ X, "Laura Gillen on June 26, 2024," accessed July 29, 2024
- ↑ WSHU, "Biden withdrawal could complicate Long Island congressional races," accessed July 24, 2024
- ↑ NY1, "What's happening politically on Long Island? Control of the U.S. House could be on the line," accessed July 30, 2024
- ↑ Roll Call, "Suozzi trying to reverse GOP trend on New York’s Long Island," accessed July 31, 2024
- ↑ A majority in the U.S. House when there are no vacancies is 218 seats.
- ↑ These figures include the seat of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who resigned on Nov. 13, 2024, after winning re-election.
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
- ↑ For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
- ↑ Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," December 12, 2021
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed January 10, 2024
- ↑ Inside Elections, "Methodology: Inside Elections’ Baseline by Congressional District," December 8, 2023