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New York's 1st Congressional District election, 2020

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New York's 1st Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 2, 2020
Primary: June 23, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Lee Zeldin (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. (general elections); primary times vary by county
Voting in New York
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Lean Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
New York's 1st Congressional District
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New York elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 1st Congressional District of New York, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Lee Zeldin won election in the general election for U.S. House New York District 1.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 2, 2020
June 23, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Lee Zeldin, who was first elected in 2014.

Zeldin advanced to the general election after the Republican, Independence Party, and Conservative Party primaries were canceled. Goroff defeated three other candidates in the Democratic primary, receiving 36.1% of the vote.

Zeldin was first elected in 2014. In 2018, he won re-election with 51.5% of the vote to Perry Gershon's (D) 47.4%.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) named Zeldin as a member of its 2020 Patriot Program in April 2019. Program Chairman John Katko (R-N.Y.) said, "Our initial Patriot Program Members are among the most accomplished and effective members in the Republican conference. ... While Democrats continue to call them ‘targets,’ the NRCC will be empowering these members to stay on offense and run aggressive, organized campaigns against their Democratic challengers."[1]

A July 2020 Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) press release stated, "A true swing district, Zeldin’s on the House Republicans’ most vulnerable members list for a reason. ... Goroff is uniquely qualified to analyze the facts and make the right choices for Long Island families on climate change, fixing our health care system, and recovering from the coronavirus epidemic."[2]

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were five percentage points more Republican than the national average.

New York's 1st Congressional District is located in the eastern part of the state and includes a portion of Suffolk County.[3]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, New York's 1st Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 47.3 44.1
Republican candidate Republican Party 51.5 55.9
Difference 4.2 11.8

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

New York modified its absentee/mail-in voting and candidate filing procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee voting eligibility in the general election was extended to any voter who was "unable to appear personally at the polling place of the election district in which they are a qualified voter because there is a risk of contracting or spreading a disease causing illness to the voter or to other members of the public." The state launched an absentee ballot request portal.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The filing deadline for independent nominating petitions was extended to July 30, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House New York District 1

Incumbent Lee Zeldin defeated Nancy Goroff in the general election for U.S. House New York District 1 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lee Zeldin
Lee Zeldin (R / Conservative Party / Independence Party)
 
54.8
 
205,715
Image of Nancy Goroff
Nancy Goroff (D / Working Families Party)
 
45.1
 
169,294
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
107

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 375,116
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 1

Nancy Goroff defeated Perry Gershon, Bridget M. Fleming, and Greg Fischer in the Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 1 on June 23, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Nancy Goroff
Nancy Goroff
 
36.0
 
17,970
Image of Perry Gershon
Perry Gershon
 
34.7
 
17,303
Image of Bridget M. Fleming
Bridget M. Fleming Candidate Connection
 
27.5
 
13,718
Image of Greg Fischer
Greg Fischer
 
1.6
 
775
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.2
 
110

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 49,876
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

The Republican primary election was canceled. Incumbent Lee Zeldin advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 1.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Conservative Party primary election

The Conservative Party primary election was canceled. Incumbent Lee Zeldin advanced from the Conservative Party primary for U.S. House New York District 1.

Independence Party primary election

The Independence Party primary election was canceled. Incumbent Lee Zeldin advanced from the Independence Party primary for U.S. House New York District 1.

Working Families Party primary election

The Working Families Party primary election was canceled. Joshua Goldfein advanced from the Working Families Party primary for U.S. House New York District 1.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eighteen of 62 New York counties—29 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Broome County, New York 2.01% 5.31% 8.02%
Cayuga County, New York 11.64% 11.40% 8.48%
Cortland County, New York 5.58% 9.11% 9.96%
Essex County, New York 1.14% 18.77% 13.32%
Franklin County, New York 5.45% 26.07% 22.23%
Madison County, New York 14.20% 0.89% 0.87%
Niagara County, New York 17.75% 0.84% 1.00%
Orange County, New York 5.50% 5.65% 4.13%
Oswego County, New York 21.99% 7.93% 2.44%
Otsego County, New York 11.13% 2.72% 5.91%
Rensselaer County, New York 1.41% 12.19% 9.34%
St. Lawrence County, New York 8.82% 16.71% 16.33%
Saratoga County, New York 3.21% 2.44% 3.40%
Seneca County, New York 11.01% 9.08% 2.60%
Suffolk County, New York 6.84% 3.69% 5.99%
Sullivan County, New York 11.23% 9.02% 9.46%
Warren County, New York 8.47% 2.32% 2.64%
Washington County, New York 18.40% 1.90% 0.81%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New York with 59 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, New York voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 35 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New York voted Democratic all five times.[4]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in New York. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[5][6]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 114 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 99 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 50.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 36 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 51 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. Trump won 13 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made New York's 1st Congressional District the 197th most Republican nationally.[8]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.02. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.02 points toward that party.[9]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[10] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[11] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Lee Zeldin Republican Party, Conservative Party, Independence Party $8,429,429 $8,282,563 $171,436 As of December 31, 2020
Nancy Goroff Working Families Party, Democratic Party $7,941,633 $7,936,372 $5,262 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[12]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[13][14][15]

Race ratings: New York's 1st Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 1st Congressional District candidates in New York in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in New York, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
New York 1st Congressional District Qualified party 375 Reduced by executive action in response to the coronavirus pandemic N/A N/A 4/2/2020 Source
New York 1st Congressional District Unaffiliated 3,500 5% of the total number of votes cast for governor in the district in the last election, or 3,500, whichever is less N/A N/A 5/26/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: New York's 1st Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election
General election for U.S. House New York District 1

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lee Zeldin
Lee Zeldin (R)
 
51.5
 
139,027
Image of Perry Gershon
Perry Gershon (D)
 
47.4
 
127,991
Image of Kate Browning
Kate Browning (Women's Equality Party)
 
1.1
 
2,988

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 270,006
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 1

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Perry Gershon
Perry Gershon
 
35.5
 
7,902
Image of Kate Browning
Kate Browning
 
30.6
 
6,813
Image of Vivian Viloria-Fisher
Vivian Viloria-Fisher
 
16.3
 
3,616
Image of David Pechefsky
David Pechefsky
 
11.5
 
2,565
Image of Elaine DiMasi
Elaine DiMasi
 
6.0
 
1,344

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 22,240
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary election

2016

See also: New York's 1st Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as a race to watch. Incumbent Lee Zeldin (R) defeated Anna Throne-Holst (D) and Kenneth Schaeffer (Working Families) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Throne-Holst defeated Dave Calone in the Democratic primary, which remained uncalled for several weeks following the election. The primary elections took place on June 28, 2016.[16][17][18][19][20]

U.S. House, New York District 1 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLee Zeldin Incumbent 58.2% 188,499
     Democratic Anna Throne-Holst 41.8% 135,278
Total Votes 323,777
Source: New York Board of Elections


U.S. House, New York, District 1 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngAnna Throne-Holst 51.3% 6,479
Dave Calone 48.7% 6,162
Total Votes 12,641
Source: New York State Board of Elections

2014

See also: New York's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014

The 1st Congressional District of New York held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Lee Zeldin (R) defeated incumbent Rep. Tim Bishop (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, New York District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Tim Bishop Incumbent 45.5% 78,722
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLee Zeldin 54.4% 94,035
     N/A Write-in votes 0.1% 108
Total Votes 172,865
Source: New York State Board of Elections, "NYS Board of Elections Rep. in Congress Election Returns November 4, 2014," accessed August 30, 2021

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ NRCC, "NRCC Announces First Round of Patriot Program Members," April 19, 2019
  2. ↑ DCCC', "The Case Against Lee Zeldin," July 15, 2020
  3. ↑ New York Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 31, 2012
  4. ↑ 270towin.com, "New York," accessed June 1, 2017
  5. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  6. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  7. ↑ Democrats won Assembly District 9 in a special election on May 23, 2017. The seat was previously held by a Republican.
  8. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  9. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  10. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  11. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  12. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  14. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  15. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  16. ↑ Roll Call, "Exclusive: NRCC Announces 12 Members in Patriot Program," February 13, 2015
  17. ↑ Calone for Congress, "Dave Calone announces fundraising, major endorsement, East End Leadership Team," July 16, 2015
  18. ↑ EMILY's List, "EMILY’s List Endorses Anna Throne-Holst for Congress in New York’s First Congressional District," June 16, 2015
  19. ↑ New York State Board of Elections, "Filings received for the 2016 Primary Election," accessed May 15, 2016
  20. ↑ Politico, "New York House Races Results," June 28, 2016


New York's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Chuck Schumer (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
Pat Ryan (D)
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
Democratic Party (21)
Republican Party (7)


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