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Nevada State Assembly elections, 2016
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| 2016 Nevada Assembly Elections | |
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| Primary | June 14, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
Democrats won control of both the Nevada State Senate and the Nevada State Assembly in the general election. This broke the Republican trifecta previously held in the state. Democrats picked up 10 seats, moving the chamber to a 12-seat Democratic majority. Senate Democrats were also able to pick up a majority, gaining one seat and moving the chamber to a three-seat majority.
All 42 seats in the Nevada State Assembly were up for election in 2016.
Heading into the general election, Nevada was one of 23 Republican state government trifectas. All three areas of the Nevada state government—the state Assembly, the state Senate, and the office of the governor—were controlled by the Republican Party.
Both the state Senate and state Assembly were considered at risk of flipping to Democratic control. Democrats flipped both chambers, which broke up the state's Republican trifecta. Republicans held a one-seat majority in the Senate and a seven-seat majority in the Assembly prior to the election.
Introduction
Elections for the Nevada State Assembly took place in 2016. The primary election took place on June 14, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 18, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Nevada State Assembly:
| Nevada State Assembly | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 17 | 27 | |
| Republican Party | 24 | 15 | |
| Libertarian Party | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 42 | 42 | |
Retired incumbents
The following incumbent representatives did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Michele Fiore | Assembly District 4 | |
| Harvey J. Munford | Assembly District 6 | |
| Lynn Stewart | Assembly District 22 | |
| Randy Kirner | Assembly District 26 | |
| Victoria Seaman | Assembly District 34 | |
| Vicki Dooling | Assembly District 41 |
Note: District 1 and District 5 were vacant until Stephanie Smith (D) and Kyle Stephens (R) were appointed to the seats on September 30, 2016. The two seats were previously held by Marilyn Kirkpatrick (D) and Erv Nelson (R).
Note: Dominic Brunetti (R) was appointed to District 25 on September 27, 2016. He replaced former incumbent Pat Hickey (R), who resigned on January 12, 2016.
2016 election competitiveness
Nevada saw more incumbents facing primary opponents.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Nevada performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Nevada State Senate, there were 10 Democratic incumbents and 11 Republican incumbents. Three incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There were no incumbents facing primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the Assembly, there were 17 Democratic incumbents, 24 Republican incumbents, and one Libertarian incumbent. Three state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 11 incumbents that faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Nevada can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified seven notable Nevada state legislative races in 2016, three of which were state Assembly contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Nevada races »
General election contests
- A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent to a rematch.
- ☐ David M. Gardner (Inc.) (R) ☑ Steve Yeager (D)
- A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Derek Armstrong (Inc.) (R) ☑ Ozzie Fumo (D)
- A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Brent Jones (Inc.) (R) ☑ Justin Watkins (D)
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Nevada Assembly general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 1 | Daniele Monroe-Moreno: 16,473 |
Howard Brean: 11,214 | |
| 2 | Owen Carver: 14,159 | John Hambrick: 16,688 (I) |
|
| 3 | Nelson Araujo: 14,498 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 4 | John Piro: 15,028 | Richard McArthur: 16,288 |
|
| 5 | Brittney Miller: 12,666 |
Artemus Ham: 12,311 | |
| 6 | William McCurdy II: 12,227 |
Carlo Maffatt: 1,790 | |
| 7 | Dina Neal: 15,067 (I) |
Jennifer Fawzy: 5,610 | |
| 8 | Jason Frierson: 12,060 |
Norm Ross: 7,978 | John Moore: 1,464 (I) (L) |
| 9 | Steve Yeager: 15,181 |
David M. Gardner: 12,262 (I) | |
| 10 | Chris Brooks: 10,910 |
Shelly Shelton: 6,273 (I) | |
| 11 | Olivia Diaz: 9,020 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 12 | James Ohrenschall: 13,942 (I) |
Mark Riggins: 10,401 | Troy Warren: 1,064 (L) |
| 13 | No candidate | Paul Anderson: 23,897 (I) |
|
| 14 | Maggie Carlton: 11,269 (I) |
Melody Howard: 4,615 | |
| 15 | Elliot Anderson: 12,014 (I) |
Stan Vaughan: 5,072 | |
| 16 | Heidi Swank: 10,666 (I) |
No candidate | Ed Uehling: 3,286 (L) |
| 17 | Tyrone Thompson: 15,488 (I) |
Ronald Newsome: 8,340 | |
| 18 | Richard Carrillo: 13,401 (I) |
Christine DeCorte: 7,539 | |
| 19 | No candidate | Chris Edwards: 19,380 (I) |
|
| 20 | Ellen Spiegel: 13,548 (I) |
Carol Linton: 8,807 | |
| 21 | Ozzie Fumo: 13,373 |
Derek Armstrong: 12,158 (I) | |
| 22 | Luis Aguirre-Insua: 13,770 | Keith Pickard: 19,433 |
|
| 23 | Craig Jordahl: 12,188 | Melissa Woodbury: 24,696 (I) |
|
| 24 | Amber Joiner: 15,227 (I) |
Jim Riger Sr.: 6,401 | |
| 25 | Eli Smith: 14,253 | Jill Tolles: 21,950 |
|
| 26 | No candidate | Lisa Krasner: 30,682 |
|
| 27 | Teresa Benitez-Thompson: 15,080 (I) |
Bonnie Weber: 11,582 | |
| 28 | Edgar Flores: 9,200 (I) |
Wesley Cornwell: 2,561 | |
| 29 | Lesley Cohen: 14,475 |
Stephen Silberkraus: 14,263 (I) | |
| 30 | Michael Sprinkle: 13,572 (I) |
Lauren Scott: 9,881 | |
| 31 | Skip Daly: 15,816 |
Jill Dickman: 15,778 (I) | |
| 32 | No candidate | Ira Hansen: 24,161 (I) |
|
| 33 | No candidate | John Ellison: 21,371 (I) |
|
| 34 | Shannon Bilbray-Axelrod: 14,788 |
Matt Williams: 10,444 | |
| 35 | Justin Watkins: 16,700 |
Brent Jones: 13,996 (I) | |
| 36 | No candidate | James Oscarson: 16,531 (I) |
Dennis Hof: 10,675 (L) |
| 37 | Sean D. Lyttle: 14,561 | Jim Marchant: 16,085 |
|
| 38 | George R. Dini: 6,545 | Robin Titus: 18,157 (I) |
Justin Smith: 1,200 (Independent American) Wendy Cochran: 983 (Unaffiliated) |
| 39 | No candidate | Jim Wheeler: 29,004 (I) |
|
| 40 | Michael L. Greedy: 9,981 | Al Kramer: 17,864 |
John Wagner: 2,173 (Independent American) |
| 41 | Sandra Jauregui: 13,801 |
Nick Phillips: 12,119 | |
| 42 | Irene Bustamante Adams: 10,963 (I) |
Howard Scheff: 6,305 | |
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Nevada State Assembly in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 42 races in the Nevada State Assembly in 2016, 34 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 23.5 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Democratic candidates in the Nevada State Assembly saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 27 races. In the 25 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 24.7 percent. Republicans won 15 races in 2016. In the nine races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 20 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Nine of the 34 contested races in 2016—26.5 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Six races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats won six races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Nevada State Assembly: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 2 R 8.2 percent District 4 R 4.0 percent District 5 D 1.4 percent District 21 D 4.8 percent District 29 D 0.7 percent District 31 D 0.1 percent District 35 D 8.8 percent District 37 R 5.0 percent District 41 R 6.5 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Nevada State Assembly who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. Twenty-four incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 17 winning Nevada State Assembly incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 31.4 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the Nevada State Assembly saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. 15 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the 13 races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 32.9 percent. Nine Republican incumbents won re-election. In the four races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 26.7 percent. |
Nevada State Assembly: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 27 24.7 percent 15 32.9 percent 2 2 7.4 percent Republican 15 20.0 percent 9 26.7 percent 5 6 40.0 percent Total 42 23.5 percent 24 31.4 percent 7 8 19.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Nevada State Assembly districts in 2016.
| Nevada State Assembly: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | 19.0 percent |
| District 2 | R | 8.2 percent |
| District 3 | D | Unopposed |
| District 4 | R | 4.0 percent |
| District 5 | D | 1.4 percent |
| District 6 | D | 74.5 percent |
| District 7 | D | 45.7 percent |
| District 8 | D | 19.0 percent |
| District 9 | D | 10.6 percent |
| District 10 | D | 27.0 percent |
| District 11 | D | Unopposed |
| District 12 | D | 13.9 percent |
| District 13 | R | Unopposed |
| District 14 | D | 41.9 percent |
| District 15 | D | 40.6 percent |
| District 16 | D | 52.9 percent |
| District 17 | D | 30.0 percent |
| District 18 | D | 28.0 percent |
| District 19 | R | Unopposed |
| District 20 | D | 21.2 percent |
| District 21 | D | 4.8 percent |
| District 22 | R | 17.1 percent |
| District 23 | R | 33.9 percent |
| District 24 | D | 40.8 percent |
| District 25 | R | 21.3 percent |
| District 26 | R | Unopposed |
| District 27 | D | 13.1 percent |
| District 28 | D | 56.5 percent |
| District 29 | D | 0.7 percent |
| District 30 | D | 15.7 percent |
| District 31 | D | 0.1 percent |
| District 32 | R | Unopposed |
| District 33 | R | Unopposed |
| District 34 | D | 17.2 percent |
| District 35 | D | 8.8 percent |
| District 36 | R | 21.5 percent |
| District 37 | R | 5.0 percent |
| District 38 | R | 43.2 percent |
| District 39 | R | Unopposed |
| District 40 | R | 26.3 percent |
| District 41 | D | 6.5 percent |
| District 42 | D | 27.0 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Nevada elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Nevada in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 4, 2016 | Ballot access | Judicial candidate filing period opens | |
| January 15, 2016 | Ballot access | Judicial candidate filing period closes | |
| March 7, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing period opens | |
| March 18, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing period closes | |
| March 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Candidate financial disclosure statement due | |
| May 24, 2016 | Campaign finance | Contributions and expenses report #1 due | |
| June 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Contributions and expenses report #2 due | |
| June 14, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| October 18, 2016 | Campaign finance | Contributions and expenses report #3 due | |
| November 4, 2016 | Campaign finance | Contributions and expenses report #4 due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 15, 2017 | Campaign finance | Annual contributions and expenses report due; Contributions and expenses report #5 due; annual financial disclosure statement due | |
| Source: Nevada Secretary of State, "Important 2016 Candidate Dates," accessed July 17, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 10 (23.8%) of the 42 districts up for election, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of three Democrats and seven Republicans were guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 32 (76.2%) of the 42 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
A total of fourteen incumbents faced primary competition on June 14. Six incumbents did not seek re-election, three seats were vacant and another 19 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Six incumbent representatives did not run for re-election and 33 (78.5%) other incumbents ran for re-election. A list of those retiring incumbents, one Democrat and five Republicans, can be found above.
Impact of term limits
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
Nevada voters approved Question 9A in 1996. Question 9A was a second vote on a term limits amendment first approved in 1994. Alone among the states with ballot initiatives, Nevada voters must approve a proposed constitutional amendment twice before it goes into the Nevada Constitution. The 1994 and 1996 votes cumulatively led to Paragraph 2 of Section 3 of Article 4 of the Nevada Constitution, which says, "No person may be elected or appointed as a member of the Assembly who has served in that Office, or at the expiration of his current term if he is so serving will have served, 12 years or more, from any district of this State."
There are 42 members of the Nevada State Assembly. In 2016, one member, Democrat Harvey Munford, was ineligible to run again in November. Marilyn Kirkpatrick (D) would have also been ineligible to run, but she resigned before the end of her term.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Nevada's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Nevada Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 18.9% | 30.2% | 64.2% | 37.8 | 13 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Assembly in Nevada in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Assembly races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Nevada State Assembly Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 122 | $7,915,571 |
| 2012 | 118 | $7,880,752 |
| 2010 | 164 | $8,351,678 |
| 2008 | 136 | $8,194,428 |
| 2006 | 118 | $8,510,826 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. Nevada, at $64,882 per candidate, is ranked 14 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
To be eligible to serve in the Nevada State Assembly, a candidate must be:[6]
- 21 years old at the time of the election
- A citizen resident of the State of Nevada for one year preceding this election
- A resident of the district for a period of 30 days next preceding closing date for filing as a candidate
See also
External links
- Nevada Secretary of State - Primary candidate list
- Clark County - Primary candidate list
- Washoe County - Primary candidate list
- Nevada Secretary of State - Certified general election candidate list
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Nevada," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Nevada Secretary of State, "Election Information Guide 2013-2014," accessed March 19, 2014 (Referenced p. 12)
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